The Pen

[Slasher9]

No. I’m “on record” as to being open-minded about the situation. If Cora pulled him, say, to keep his IP down, that was not the game to do it. But I do think the decision was made with information I don’t have, and Price himself made some comment about it not being “on Alex”, which makes me think maybe Price asked to come out for some reason...

 

wasnt referring to you. i am referring to the people that are simply saying "the bullpen pitched x amount of innings and only game up x runs so it was a smart move by Cora" or the people that are saying "it wasnt the BP fault we lost it was the Offense".

 

both of those statements ignores the fact that our manager pulled David Price after the 5th inning of a 1-1 game

[Bellhorn04]

wasnt referring to you. i am referring to the people that are simply saying "the bullpen pitched x amount of innings and only game up x runs so it was a smart move by Cora" or the people that are saying "it wasnt the BP fault we lost it was the Offense".

 

both of those statements ignores the fact that our manager pulled David Price after the 5th inning of a 1-1 game

 

I just assume Cora had his reasons for doing so. As others have said, he's got a lot more information than we do.

 

And it's not like he's babying starting pitchers every time out. E-Rod has thrown 114 pitches and 111 pitches his last 2 outings.

[Slasher9]

I just assume Cora had his reasons for doing so. As others have said, he's got a lot more information than we do.

 

And it's not like he's babying starting pitchers every time out. E-Rod has thrown 114 pitches and 111 pitches his last 2 outings.

 

yes. and i am assuming that David Price is/was not hurt. so what is the reason to pull him?

 

with no game tonight we can beat this horse to a bloody pulp.

[Kimmi]

We still treated them like our bitch earlier in the year. The twins have always been and will always be owned by the Yankees

 

This, unfortunately, is true.

 

The Twins just roll over when they play you guys.

[Kimmi]

the Loss was not the bullpens fault. actually my original argument(s) in this thread had zero to do with a W or an L. it was simply the decision to remove the starter in the 5th inning of a 1-1 game with only 73 pitches thrown. that was my only point. it certainly has snaked back and forth to all sorts of places now but the original premise is the same. i 100% disagree with removing the Ace Starting Pitcher in the 5th inning of a 1-1 game with only 73 pitches thrown. unless he was/is hurt. and i have yet to see anything conclusive that David Price is hurt.

 

It was a curious decision to remove Price so early in the game. That said, this is Cora's MO - saving and resting players. He did it all year last year, and he will continue to do it this year. He will not 'chase wins', as he calls it.

 

When you get to September, it becomes a different story. When you're in June, you can't risk losing a top starter down the stretch to try to win one game now.

[Bellhorn04]

yes. And i am assuming that david price is/was not hurt. So what is the reason to pull him?

 

Coach's decision.

[moonslav59]

specifically post #2071 of this thread.

 

and what has followed is that many of you are now on record being OK with pulling David Price in the 5th inning of a 1-1 game.

 

Only in light of the quotes from Cora and Price after the game, and the fact that Price struggled his last outting and may have been gassed or not feeling right.

 

We can't afford to lose Price. If he needs to be "babied" for a short stretch, then Cora is 100% right to do what needs to be done.

 

As for our pen since June 1st....

 

3rd in IP (thanks to so many extra inning games)

 

3rd in WAR +0.9

 

1st in K/9 at 11.0

 

5th in ERA- at 70

 

5th in SIERA at 3.65

 

6th in LOB% at 79.3%

 

12th in WHIP at 1.30

 

(All this with a .304 BAbip that ranks 10th highest.)

 

For the season as a whole:

 

T6th in WAR at 2.9 (just 0.7 from the #1 Yanks)

 

5th in ERA- at 82

 

7th in xFIP at 4.17

 

11th in WHIP at 1.30

 

1st in K/9 at 10.5

 

6th in LOB% at 76%

 

9th in K/BB at 2.69

 

The funny thing is, almost all these numbers are better than the Kimbrel-Kelly led pen of 2018.

[Maxbialystock]

yes. and i am assuming that David Price is/was not hurt. so what is the reason to pull him?

 

with no game tonight we can beat this horse to a bloody pulp.

 

He didn't pull him. He simply didn't send him out for the 6th because Price asked him not to. Price made that clear after the game.

 

But you are missing one gigantic point in your obsession to attack Cora. No way, no how, was Price going to go more than 7 innings, and the two guys who pitched the 6th and 7th gave up no runs. So who comes in to pitch the 8th? Workman, whose ERA is whose ERA is 1.82 compared to Price's 3.39. He was absolutely the right guy to send out for the 8th, except that he's the one who gave up the tying run. So puling Price didn't cost anything. Heck, Workman giving up a run only tied the game. The Sox had 5 innings to score a 3d run, which would have won the game, and could no do so.

 

You are also glossing over the fact that the night before Cora let Porcello--who hasn't been nearly as good as Price this year and who was facing the toughest lineup in MLB--go 7 innings. And he did the same thing last with ERod, who this year is even worse than Porcello.

[Bellhorn04]

The funny thing is, almost all these numbers are better than the Kimbrel-Kelly led pen of 2018.

 

Kimbrel-Kelly led? It's amazing how much Joe Kelly's stock went up after he left LOL

[Maxbialystock]

Kimbrel-Kelly led? It's amazing how much Joe Kelly's stock went up after he left LOL

 

Dead right. Kelly was fantastic in the playoffs, but absolutely did not "lead" the bullpen in the regular season. The guy has some really good pitches, but not really good command--as the Dodgers are learning.

[Maxbialystock]

yes. and i am assuming that David Price is/was not hurt. so what is the reason to pull him?

 

with no game tonight we can beat this horse to a bloody pulp.

 

We don't know whether Price was hurt, but do know he said he asked not to go back out for the 6th, which, by the way, has been his normal limit this year. That's right. In 15 starts he has gone 7 innings once, 6.1 innings once, six innings 5 times, five innings 3 times, 1.1 innings once, and .2 innings once. Also, on May 20 he went just 5 innings while only throwing 67 pitches. Also, on June 8 he threw his most pitches this season, 103, while going 6 innings. The next game he went 1.1 innings.

 

I honestly think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what David Price can give us this year--and no doubt come from the bobby valentine school of managing.

[Slasher9]

Only in light of the quotes from Cora and Price after the game, and the fact that Price struggled his last outting and may have been gassed or not feeling right.

 

We can't afford to lose Price. If he needs to be "babied" for a short stretch, then Cora is 100% right to do what needs to be done.

 

As for our pen since June 1st....

 

3rd in IP (thanks to so many extra inning games)

 

3rd in WAR +0.9

 

1st in K/9 at 11.0

 

5th in ERA- at 70

 

5th in SIERA at 3.65

 

6th in LOB% at 79.3%

 

12th in WHIP at 1.30

 

(All this with a .304 BAbip that ranks 10th highest.)

 

For the season as a whole:

 

T6th in WAR at 2.9 (just 0.7 from the #1 Yanks)

 

5th in ERA- at 82

 

7th in xFIP at 4.17

 

11th in WHIP at 1.30

 

1st in K/9 at 10.5

 

6th in LOB% at 76%

 

9th in K/BB at 2.69

 

The funny thing is, almost all these numbers are better than the Kimbrel-Kelly led pen of 2018.

 

agreed. looks like Price is getting the baby treatment from Cora.

our pen has not been a problem. im close to calling it a strength.

[notin]

We don't know whether Price was hurt, but do know he said he asked not to go back out for the 6th, which, by the way, has been his normal limit this year. That's right. In 15 starts he has gone 7 innings once, 6.1 innings once, six innings 5 times, five innings 3 times, 1.1 innings once, and .2 innings once. Also, on May 20 he went just 5 innings while only throwing 67 pitches. Also, on June 8 he threw his most pitches this season, 103, while going 6 innings. The next game he went 1.1 innings.

 

I honestly think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of what David Price can give us this year--and no doubt come from the bobby valentine school of managing.

 

 

With the exception of the game he left early for health reasons and the Texas game where he was getting shelled, Price has also thrown at least 83 pitches in all his starts prior. The one exception was the 67 pitch game you called out, but Price left that game with a 6-2 lead, not a 1-1 tie.

 

I had to make 83 the cutoff, but really it’s the only remaining game below 90 pitches ( also it was only his second start this season), Price has thrown 100 pitches in a game twice this year, maxing out at 103. He’s also thrown more than 90 pitches 5 additional times. The 73 pitch outing stands alone in that it’s the only time this year Price has thrown less than 90 in a close game without health issues...

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel-Kelly led? It's amazing how much Joe Kelly's stock went up after he left LOL

 

Kelly was out number 2 RP'er at this point last year and in the playoffs, but you are right, he wasn't really our #2 all year.

[dgalehouse]

People saying that the bullpen is a strength is a twist on the old self fulfilling prophecy. They predicted it would be a strength, they want it to be a strength and so they believe that it actually is a strength. But it simply is not true . Our pen has 16 saves and 14 blown saves . The Yankee's has 24 saves and 10 blown saves . The Yankees pen also has 11 more " holds." The difference in the bullpens is one of the main reasons we trail New York by 6 1/2 games . Edited June 20, 2019 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

agreed. looks like Price is getting the baby treatment from Cora.

our pen has not been a problem. im close to calling it a strength.

 

Going forward, I would not view our pen as a strength, especially if Hembree never returns to 2019 form, but up to this point our pen has clearly been on the plus side of the ledger.

 

It's been a strength, and every number I call valuable shows us in the top 10 with several in the top 3 to 5 in MLB.

[Slasher9]

People saying that the bullpen is a strength is a twist on the old self fulfilling prophecy. They predicted it would be a strength, they want it to be a strength and so they believe that it actually is a strength. But it simply is not true . The pen ERA is 4.22 . The Rays pen is 3.17 . Astro's 3.58. Yanks 3.96 . Cleveland , Minnesota and Oakland also have lower pen ERAs . Our pen has 16 saves and 14 blown saves . The Yankee's has 24 saves and 10 blown saves . The Yankees pen also has 11 more " holds." The difference in the bullpens is one of the main reasons we trail New York by 6 1/2 games .

 

Actually it was the 2-8 start to the season that is the difference. i dont believe 1 of those 8 L's can be laid at the feet of the pen. the SP and lack of preparation would seem to be the biggest culprits.

[moonslav59]

People saying that the bullpen is a strength is a twist on the old self fulfilling prophecy. They predicted it would be a strength, they want it to be a strength and so they believe that it actually is a strength. But it simply is not true . The pen ERA is 4.22 . The Rays pen is 3.17 . Astro's 3.58. Yanks 3.96 . Cleveland , Minnesota and Oakland also have lower pen ERAs . Our pen has 16 saves and 14 blown saves . The Yankee's has 24 saves and 10 blown saves . The Yankees pen also has 11 more " holds." The difference in the bullpens is one of the main reasons we trail New York by 6 1/2 games .

 

Using just ERA and BS as a measure for RP'ers is not what I would use.

 

RP'ers often come in with 1-2 outs, so their ERA is skewed by not needing to get 3 outs an inning.

 

Even ERA- or ERA+ is better and we are 5th in ERA-.

 

Our pen has been a strength, so far. That says nothing about going forward.

 

Yes, I hope they do well going forward, but I would not bet on it.

 

Comparing us to the best pen in MLB (perhaps MLB history) is not a good comp. Every team would pale vs their numbers.

 

Compare us to the league average, and you'll see we are a clear plus. Not great but much better than average.

[Slasher9]

Actually it was the 2-8 start to the season that is the difference. i dont believe 1 of those 8 L's can be laid at the feet of the pen. the SP and lack of preparation would seem to be the biggest culprits.

 

in fact....the first 4 W's of the season were attributed to Relief Pitchers while the first 7 L's were attributed to Starting Pitchers.

[moonslav59]

in fact....the first 4 W's of the season were attributed to Relief Pitchers while the first 7 L's were attributed to Starting Pitchers.

 

I went through the first 59 games- one by one- and found our pen did better than the starters way more times.

 

29 Losses:

18.5 are more the starter's fault

10.5 are more the reliever's fault

 

30 Wins:

11.5 are more due to the starter

18.5 are more due to the reliever

 

Net:

SP: -7.0

RP: +8.0

 

 

Edited June 20, 2019 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

And if you did want to use ERA for the pen, we do have a bunch of guys now with decent ERA's:

 

Shawaryn 0.90

Workman 1.82

Walden 2.43

Hembree 2.51

Barnes 3.16

Brasier 3.52

Brewer 4.22 (3.00 since May 1)

[dgalehouse]

Teams have winning streaks and losing streaks during a typical season . They are all incorporated into the overall record . I am well aware of all the nuances of ERA , saves and blown saves . They apply the same to all teams . I would definitely say that our starting rotation is better than the Yankee's rotation. The difference is the bullpens . And that will continue to be a concern every time we play a close game with them .

[moonslav59]

I went through the first 59 games- one by one- and found our pen did better than the starters way more times.

 

29 Losses:

18.5 are more the starter's fault

10.5 are more the reliever's fault

 

30 Wins:

11.5 are more due to the starter

18.5 are more due to the reliever

 

Net:

SP: -7.0

RP: +8.0

 

Since game 59...

 

(Note: the offense is not factored into this analysis. Wins and losses are attributed to the SP'er or the pen based mostly on ERA.)

 

60: W8-3 KCR: ERod put us in a hole 2-0, but we scored 3 in the 6th to get him the win: SP 5.2 2 ER/ RP 3.1 1ER - Slight edge to RP

 

61: W 8-0 KCR: Chris Sale pitched shut out: SP all the way.

 

62: W 7-5 KCR: Pen game. Weber started (1.1 IP 2 ER). The pen: 7.2 IP 3 ER. Pen gets the win.

 

63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 6 IP 4 ER/ Pen 3 IP 1 ER: loss edge to SP

 

64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith (4 IP 4 ER)/ Pen 5 IP 4 ER- 4 in 9th after game was already lost) Edge loss to SP.

 

65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 6 IP 1 ER/ Pen 3 IP 0 ER: Win goes to both. (+0.5)

 

66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 5.2 IP 4 ER/ Pen 4.1 IP 2 ER: Loss goes to SP

 

67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 7 IP 0ER/ Pen 4 IP 3 ER: Loss goes to pen.

 

68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3 IP 3 ER/ Pen 6 IP 5 ER: I'll call this a tie loss.

 

69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 6.2 IP 2 ER/ Pen 2.1 IP 0 ER: Edge to pen.

 

70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 1.1 IP 6 ER/ Pen 7.9 IP 0 ER: Clear win to pen 100%!

 

71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 7 IP 1 ER/ Pen 2 IP 1 ER: Clear win for SP.

 

72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 6IP 2 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Edge to RP

 

73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 3 IP 1 ER/ Pen 7 IP 3 ER. Edge to SP despite just 3 IP.

 

74: W 2-0 MN: Porcello 7 IP 0 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER. SP gets win.

 

75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 5 IP 1 ER/Pen 11.1 3 ER. Pen gets loss.

 

76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 7 IP 4 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Win to pen.

 

Last 17 games:

 

Wins:

6.5 Pen

4.5 Pen

 

Losses:

3.5 SP

2.5 Pen

 

Net:

+1.0 SP

+4.0 Pen

 

 

 

All 76 games:

 

Wins

16 SP

25 RP

 

Losses

22 SP

13 RP

 

Net:

-6 SP

+13 RP

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

Won-Lost records FWIW

 

Starters 22-26

Relievers 19-9

[moonslav59]

Teams have winning streaks and losing streaks during a typical season . They are all incorporated into the overall record . I am well aware of all the nuances of ERA , saves and blown saves . They apply the same to all teams . I would definitely say that our starting rotation is better than the Yankee's rotation. The difference is the bullpens . And that will continue to be a concern every time we play a close game with them .

 

The Yankee rotation has been bad, at times, this year. Their pen has been great. Just because our pen has not been as good as theirs does not mean it's ourpen's fault we are 7 down.

 

Our pen has been a net plus this year. Our offense has lost more games than our pen, despite being among the league leaders in runs scored.

 

Our starters have improved greatly since the first 3-4 weeks, but they have not been responsible for most of our wins as compared to our pen. We seem to remember the blown saves a lot more than the 7.9 IP 0 ER games from our pen.

 

My analysis of each game may be flawed in several ways, but the conclusion is so stark, it is hard to think a different methodology would flip the script.

 

Here's another look:

 

Our pen is 7th in IP, so they've been used more than most teams, including the Yanks by over 21 innings.

 

Rankings

WAR

1. NYY 3.6

3. TBR 3.4

6. BOS 2.9

 

ERA-

3. TBR 80

5. BOS 82

6. NYY 86

 

WHIP

7. TBR 1.24

8. NYY 1.25

11. BOS 1.30

 

xFIP-

1. NYY 86

6. BOS 92

9. TBR 97

 

 

K/BB

5. NYY 2.87

9. BOS 2.69

11. TBR 2.66

 

K/9

1. BOS 10.6

2. NYY 10.2

23. TBR 8.9

 

Our pen has been clearly a plus any way you look at it, except BS, of which we have had a few games where we've had 2-3 Blown Saves within them.

 

Now, the Starters:

 

(Whileour SP'er do look better than the Yanks, and their pen looks better than ours, when you compare them to the league, as a whole, our pen holds up nicely to our rotation.)

 

IP

14. BOS 396

21. NYY 377

29. TBR 332

 

WAR

3. TBR 8.7

8. BOS 7.5

11. NYY 6.8

8. BOS

 

ERA-

2. TBR 67 (way less IP)

8. NYY 87

13. BOS 95 (about average)

 

WHIP

2. TBR 1.04

8. NYY 1.23

14. BOS 1.26 (about average)

 

xFIP-

1. TBR 76

7. BOS 91

9. NYY 94

 

K/BB

3. TBR 4.0

5. BOS 3.5

8. NYY 3.3

 

K/9

2. TBR 10.1

5. BOS 9.6

8. NYY 8.9

 

Clearly, our pen has been much better than the average MLB team, and our Starters have been much closer to average than most teams.

 

Comparing us to the Yanks, who have a great pen and not so great SP'ers, and then blaming our losses more on the pen is misleading.

[moonslav59]

League rankings:

 

Stat Pen-- SP

I P 7th- 14th

WAR 6th- 8th

ERA- 5th- 13th

WHIP 11th- 14th

xFIP- 6th- 7th

K/BB 9th- 5th

K/9 1st- 5th

 

The only category our starters have outperformed our pen is K/BB.

 

All of this being said, I'd rather see us trade for a solid pen arm than a starter. My only point is that, so far, our pen has helped us win more games and avoid losing more games that our rotation. This does not mean the same will be true going forward. Our starters have improved a lot, and if Eovaldi returns our rotation should be fine going forward.

[moonslav59]

Won-Lost records FWIW

 

Starters 22-26

Relievers 19-9

 

By my methodology:

 

Starters 16-22

Relievers 25-13

 

It's not even close to date.

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

With the exception of the game he left early for health reasons and the Texas game where he was getting shelled, Price has also thrown at least 83 pitches in all his starts prior. The one exception was the 67 pitch game you called out, but Price left that game with a 6-2 lead, not a 1-1 tie.

 

I had to make 83 the cutoff, but really it’s the only remaining game below 90 pitches ( also it was only his second start this season), Price has thrown 100 pitches in a game twice this year, maxing out at 103. He’s also thrown more than 90 pitches 5 additional times. The 73 pitch outing stands alone in that it’s the only time this year Price has thrown less than 90 in a close game without health issues...

 

All good points. What was different about Tuesday night was Price apparently telling Cora he shouldn't be sent out to pitch the 6th. And I think Cora agreed with him because of the two games just prior. Both apparently were willing to err on the side of caution. Moreover, Price normally only goes 6 innings anyway, so leaving 1 inning early was hardly that big a deal.

 

I think results are important. Grady Little probably got fired after the 2013 season because he didn't pull Pedro soon enough in the ALCS vs. the Yankees, but he would have been fine if Pedro had gotten thru that last inning without getting hammered. Tuesday night Cora did pull Price early, and the Twins were held scoreless in the next two innings. Had Price pitched not one but two more scoreless innings, Workman still would have been a great choice to pitch the 8th. That is why I don't understand the attacks on Cora.

[Slasher9]

Just because something did or didn’t work doesn’t mean the move cannot be questioned. It was a questionable move. There are articles about that specific incident outside of our forum....what’s not to get?

[Bellhorn04]

I think results are important. Grady Little probably got fired after the 2013 season because he didn't pull Pedro soon enough in the ALCS vs. the Yankees, but he would have been fine if Pedro had gotten thru that last inning without getting hammered. Tuesday night Cora did pull Price early, and the Twins were held scoreless in the next two innings. Had Price pitched not one but two more scoreless innings, Workman still would have been a great choice to pitch the 8th. That is why I don't understand the attacks on Cora.

 

It's simple, really. A lot of fans truly believe they have sharper baseball minds than the manager and feel entitled to criticize every move they don't understand or don't agree with.