The Pen

[Bellhorn04]

So, basically, we've lost 7 games due to blown saves.

 

And that's the key number.

[moonslav59]

OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run)

 

OPS pitcher (PAs)

.629 Barnes 112

.518 Workman 90

.824 Brasier 78

.585 Walden 58

.388 Hembree 27

.832 Brewer 27

.871 Velazquez 19

.500 Sale 14

1.481 Lakins 14

1.135 Porcello 13

.222 Taylor 9

1.429 ERod 7

.333 Smith 6

1.800 Johnson 5

.000 Thornburg 4

.750 Price 4

4.000 Poyner 2

 

Many of our worst are the starters or very bottom of the pen.

 

Too bad Hembree got hurt. Maybe he could have become our closer.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

More than 10 PAs Against...

 

High Leverage:

.624 Barnes 76

.583 Workman 64

.835 Brasier 55

.472 Walden 52

.911 Brewer 37

.575 Hembree 25

.661 Velazquez 23

 

.933 Porcello 69

.770 Sale 59

.813 Price 54

.822 ERod 48

.824 Eovaldi 14

[Bellhorn04]

What's disheartening about the blown saves games we've lost is that 3 of them have come in the last 2 weeks - June 10, 18 and 22.

[moonslav59]

What's disheartening about the blown saves games we've lost is that 3 of them have come in the last 2 weeks - June 10, 18 and 22.

 

...and I think that is part of the reason we all feel like our pen has been much worse than it has been all year.

 

If we could add a solid closer to these guys, we'd be much better:

 

OPS against in Late & Close PAs (7th inning or later with the game tied or within 1 run)

 

OPS pitcher (PAs)

.629 Barnes 112

.518 Workman 90

.585 Walden 58

.388 Hembree 27

 

[a700hitter]

And that's the key number.

Onlyvthe Mets have lost more games after the 7th inning than the Red Sox, and the Mets manager is about to get fired.

[harmony]

With Kelvin Herrera's blown saves tonight, the Red Sox opponents have 13 blown saves on the season to the 15 blown saves by the Sox.

[moonslav59]

ERod should get a blown save for tonight's handing the lead away in the 7th.

[mvp 78]

Thornburg in PAW tonight: 1 inning, 5 hits, 5 ER’s, 2 HR’s

[moonslav59]

Updated tally after today's win to the pen:

 

Starters 16-22 (-6)

 

Relievers 26-14 (+12)

 

 

The alternative scoring system I showed earlier- updated after 80 games: (Tonight's Update SP -2/RP+2)

 

SP +20

 

RP +46

 

Edited June 25, 2019 by moonslav59

[OH FOY]

Rays are 43-0 after the 7th inning, with a lead.

Yanks 42-1 after the 7th inning.

Sox are 34-7 after the 7th inning.

Edited June 25, 2019 by OH FOY!

[Bellhorn04]

Rays are 43-0 after the 7th inning, with a lead.

Yanks 42-1 after the 7th inning.

Sox are 34-7 after the 7th inning.

 

Those are some telling numbers.

[OH FOY]

Sure are if undefeated they would be in 1st place by about 5 games. Record would be 54-23.

My bad, old ha record would be 50-30, Yanks would be 50-28.

Edited June 25, 2019 by OH FOY!

[mvp 78]

Those are some telling numbers.

 

Not telling enough as it doesn't state how they performed in 2018 at a similar point.

[OH FOY]

This tells me Kimbrel and maybe even Kelly was important during the season, to close the door, especially against the bad teams. In which there are many.

[OH FOY]

Not telling enough as it doesn't state how they performed in 2018 at a similar point.

 

Has to be better if you won 108 games. What was the record last year at the half way point?

[moonslav59]

Not telling enough as it doesn't state how they performed in 2018 at a similar point.

 

It also doesn't tell how many times we were losing, and the pen kept us in it long enough for a comeback. Also, how many loses do we have where the pen pitched an excellent game of 3+ innings with 0 runs allowed, but we lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1. Those are games the Yanks and Rays win.

[OH FOY]

Kimbrel had 26 saves last year at the half-way point.

[OH FOY]

It also doesn't tell how many times we were losing, and the pen kept us in it long enough for a comeback. Also, how many loses do we have where the pen pitched an excellent game of 3+ innings with 0 runs allowed, but we lost 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1. Those are games the Yanks and Rays win.

 

I'm sure the Yanks and Rays have had the same thing happen to them. You need to look at losing the games with a lead.

[mvp 78]

Kimbrel had 26 saves last year at the half-way point.

 

That's meaningless in all honesty. The argument is about blown saves by the entire pen.

[OH FOY]

2 Blown saves for Kimbrel at the halfway point.

[OH FOY]

Kimbrel had 5 blown saves for the year.

[OH FOY]

Sox were 58-5 in games he was in.

Here's the game log's maybe I made a mistake. Obviously there were games were the Offense saved him too.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kimbrcr01&t=p&year=2018

Edited June 25, 2019 by OH FOY!

[notin]

That's meaningless in all honesty. The argument is about blown saves by the entire pen.

 

 

The Sox pen had 20 blown saves last year.

 

They pitched a total of 587 IP. This year the Sox have 15 blown saves in 309 IP and are on pace for 625 IP for the season, a modest 6% increase (which is likely to be larger by season’s end)...

[OH FOY]

According to the stat games are being lost in the 8th inning too. Not just blown saves.

But hey, if you feel this BP is OK, we should not have a problem.

All I'm saying against the Good teams I expect a dogfight, against the weak ones, its imperative you shut the door.

Edited June 25, 2019 by OH FOY!

[moonslav59]

I'm sure the Yanks and Rays have had the same thing happen to them. You need to look at losing the games with a lead.

 

I have looked at every game with a microscope. Yes, the loses are looked at, but my point was about how many games has our pen did a great job keeping us in a game but we still lost or we came back to win. Also, say we are winning 8-7 in the 4th, we tie it 8-8 but our pen goes 5 ip and let's up 1 run. The pen gets the loss even though the starter was much more at fault. Or like that 17 inning game we lost and the pen blew 2 saves but pitched very well.

 

We talk a lot about our lack of timely hitting, but we've also seen some really bad untimely pitching. The pen does great for 10 innings but let's up one run in the 8th and 13th.

[Bellhorn04]

Not telling enough as it doesn't state how they performed in 2018 at a similar point.

 

But it does tell you something compared to the Yanks and Rays.

[Bellhorn04]

34-7 when leading after 7 is clearly not good, assuming that's an accurate tally.

[notin]

According to the stat games are being lost in the 8th inning too. Not just blown saves.

But hey, if you feel this BP is OK, we should not have a problem.

All I'm saying against the Good teams I expect a dogfight, against the weak ones, its imperative you shut the door.

 

 

The Blown Save tally does include those 8th inning losses, as well as earlier innings..

[jung]

IMO, Cora's dilemma (outside of not preparing his rotation to pitch at the actual start of the regular season) is that his pen is made up of niche players. Guys that he really cannot get out of a very narrow comfort zone for them. This is particularly true now that Neck-Tat is up on the shelf.

 

Of those particular niches that each of them can fill, not one of them is a closer. Chose Brasier for the job. I think the Brasier experiment is about done. If we work from back to front, probably the best guy they have to close now is Work. Not saying I have a great deal of confidence in Work in that role. But what else are they gonna' do. Barnes is the fireman and the only fireman I have any real faith in at all. So he should be used when the fireman needs to be employed. That said, Barnes IMO has been exposed as significantly less effective on the second day if used two days in a row....in other words, another niche bull pen arm.

 

Walden I suspect is the only guy they have that can actually go more than 1 inning in a stint. So he gets those assignments IMO. Unless it is a real raging fire that you need Barnes to put out, I suspect Walden is best used now as the guy that replaces the Starter. Taylor is really their best LH BP arm at this point. So you really do have to use him in that role. The rest of them are just a basket of whatever and you really have to use them to spare the guys you can at least say can fill some identifiable BP function. So Cora is stuck trying to fit in the rest. Can I get a 7th inning out of Brasier? Can I get anything out of Brewer or Shawaryn. Once BJ moves back to the pen, Walden can probably try some additional high leverage situations. Hembree probably outright replaces somebody when he comes back.

 

You can literally see Cora struggling with this assortment of pen arms. Why do you think he tries to squeeze every last out from his starters?