A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.

 

The bullpen falls on Dombrowski's shoulders and I am sure he knows that full well.

 

If the team comes out of the gate blowing late leads left and right, he will be forced to make a trade.

 

It will be addressed one way or the other. There's no choice in the matter.

[Bellhorn04]

Unless Nathan Eovaldi is last year's Drew Pomeranz and Steve Pearce is last year's Eduardo Nunez.

 

Eovaldi and Pearce may have overperformed in 2018 ... or not.

 

Eovaldi has always been known as a guy with great stuff who couldn't put it all together. Adding a cutter to his repertoire seems to have made an enormous difference. He put up K/BB numbers he had never approached before.

 

His health history is a huge concern, obviously.

[sk7326]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.

 

The Red Sox could be qualitatively the exact same team they were a year ago and not win 108 again. They were awesome but still also overperformed their run differential.

[notin]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.

 

 

I don’t mind handing the ninth to Barnes.

 

 

But right now the Sox third best reliever is Hembree. That needs to change, and not by Hembree or Brasier taking steps back...

Edited January 19, 2019 by notin

[dgalehouse]

It is possible that Eovaldi and Pearce are being somewhat overrated due to their post season heroics . At least when compared with their career numbers .However , watching Eovaldi pitch , his stuff is very impressive. There is good reason to think that he will be a stalwart in the rotation this season.

[dgalehouse]

I don’t mind handing the ninth to Barnes.

 

 

But right now the Sox third best reliever is Hembree. That needs to change, and not by Hembree or Brasier taking steps back...

. I think if every remaining reliever moves up one or two spots in the pecking order , we will most likely wind up weaker than before at each and every spot .

[Station 13]

We beat New York by eight games. Now , they certainly seem to have improved , even without Machado. Have they improved enough to make up the difference ? That is the burning question. To beat a dead horse one more time , I think we are playing a dangerous game by virtually ignoring the bullpen.

 

They boosted their rotation, which the Red Sox trash them all season. Their bullpen to me depends on how Britton holds up. How Ottavino adjust to the AL East. Which Batences shows up. We whack Chappy all the time. Their offense needs no introduction. They have made moves to improve their weaknesses.

 

 

The Red Sox better get A LOT more out of 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, C next season. If they aren't better next year we probably will not repeat as division champs.

 

in terms of WAR we rank last season:

1B 18th

2B 22th

3B 27th

CF 15th

C 30th

 

Those are quite ugly

Edited January 19, 2019 by Station 13

[notin]

. I think if every remaining reliever moves up one or two spots in the pecking order , we will most likely wind up weaker than before at each and every spot .

 

 

But the important thing is to improve on what we have now...

[OH FOY]

I think 1 of our 3 Catchers will be Traded, before the Start of season. I don't think it will be Swihart, he's the cheapest.

 

https://bosoxinjection.com/2019/01/18/red-sox-rumors-swihart-shot-catcher/

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox better get A LOT more out of 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, C next season. If they aren't better next year we probably will not repeat as division champs.

 

in terms of WAR we rank last season:

1B 18th

2B 22th

3B 27th

CF 15th

C 30th

 

Those are quite ugly

 

And we still won 119 games with them. Shows you the whole team doesn't have to be great.

[moonslav59]

Right now - being pragmatic - the Yankees have closed the gap on paper with Boston. Paxton is a significant boost to the team's biggest weakness, and Ottavino helps the bullpen.

 

Ottavino may not be an upgrade over Robertson.

[moonslav59]

in terms of WAR we rank last season:

1B 18th

2B 22th

3B 27th

CF 15th

C 30th

 

Those are quite ugly.

 

I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I do not think our catchers were the worst in MLB. WAR does not include a lot of intangibles such as CERA related skills. If Leon & Vaz just hit their career OPS, we'll see a near 100 point gain right there. That's not unreasonable to assume.

 

Pearce will be here 6 months not two, so that should boost our 1B ranking along with maybe Moreland possibly & finally having an injury- free season.

 

Pedey is a big if at 2B, but maybe Nunez's knee improves and his defense doesn't drag down the WAR number.

 

JBJ might be consistent all year, and that would be a big boost.

 

Devers missed time, and again, if Nunez is healthy, we may see a big gain here.

 

I get it- lot's of ifs, but I like our chances at seeing gains at most of these positions- maybe enough to make up for a decline we may see from our pen.

[dgalehouse]

in terms of WAR we rank last season:

1B 18th

2B 22th

3B 27th

CF 15th

C 30th

 

Those are quite ugly.

 

I don't think I'm being a homer when I say I do not think our catchers were the worst in MLB. WAR does not include a lot of intangibles such as CERA related skills. If Leon & Vaz just hit their career OPS, we'll see a near 100 point gain right there. That's not unreasonable to assume.

 

Pearce will be here 6 months not two, so that should boost our 1B ranking along with maybe Moreland possibly & finally having an injury- free season.

 

Pedey is a big if at 2B, but maybe Nunez's knee improves and his defense doesn't drag down the WAR number.

 

JBJ might be consistent all year, and that would be a big boost.

 

Devers missed time, and again, if Nunez is healthy, we may see a big gain here.

 

I get it- lot's of ifs, but I like our chances at seeing gains at most of these positions- maybe enough to make up for a decline we may see from our pen.

 

I think that is just too many maybes , might' s , should be's and could be's to build one's hopes on . If would be great if they all panned out .

[moonslav59]

I think that is just too many maybes , might' s , should be's and could be's to build one's hopes on . If would be great if they all panned out .

 

We don't need them all. I think expecting improvement from Devers is a likelihood not a prayer.

 

Hoping our 2 catchers hit their career norm is not a stretch.

 

Hoping JBJ continues where he lest off last year, when he finally went 4 straight months with consistently good hitting, does it for 6 months might be viewed as a big what if, but when you count his playoff performance, one has to think his confidence is at an all time high right now. (Whatever that is worth.)

 

1B should be better barring an injury that messes with the platoon and forces one 1Bman to hit the opposite platoon, although Peatce has shown he can hit righties pretty wee for long stretches.

 

The biggest "if" is 2B, but we have 3 guys to hope 1 or 2 do well- Pedey, Nunez & Holt. We also have Lin as a decent defensive back-up.

 

Hoping we find 3-5 decent RP'er to fill in behind Barnes & Brasier is our biggest "if".

 

Hembree

Wright

Workman

Thornburg

C Smith

Johnson

Velazquez

Poyner

Walden

Skawaryn/Shepherd/ERamirez/JSmith

Brewer

Putman

Lakins

Feltman

[jacksonianmarch]

Ottavino may not be an upgrade over Robertson.

 

We replaced Robertson. All we need is Britton to be an upgrade over Shreve

[notin]

We replaced Robertson. All we need is Britton to be an upgrade over Shreve

 

While not for a full season, you did have Britton last year.

 

But if that doesn’t count, then the Sox have already replaced Kelly with Brasier...

[moonslav59]

We replaced Robertson.

 

I get that. If you see the post I responded to, the point was that the Yanks are getting better while we stand still, and the poster mentioned Ottavino was part of the Yanks getting better.

[Jack Flap]

"The mystery player the Red Sox talked to about an extension earlier this offseason was Xander Bogaerts, multiple sources said. The conversations never heated up or brought the sides close to a deal, but the Red Sox and Bogaerts’ agency, Scott Boras’ camp, did engage on the matter."

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/bogaerts-talked-extension-betts-says-deals-tough-come

[sk7326]

Ottavino may not be an upgrade over Robertson.

 

It might not - Paxton makes it a net plus. I think the Red Sox are better - though they did overperform their run differential (a run differential of a 103 win team iirc, so we performed monstrously anyway). The Yankees have basically added a legit starter and tinkered along the edges. As I've noted before, I am surprised they have not been more aggressive - it shows the difference in ownership approaches than days of yore.

[sk7326]

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/bogaerts-talked-extension-betts-says-deals-tough-come

 

I will be curious what happens to Bogaerts - I could easily see (based on this offseason and Boras being a very very smart man) Bogey taking a 2 year deal and betting on a brand new CBA.

[moonslav59]

It might not - Paxton makes it a net plus. I think the Red Sox are better - though they did overperform their run differential (a run differential of a 103 win team iirc, so we performed monstrously anyway). The Yankees have basically added a legit starter and tinkered along the edges. As I've noted before, I am surprised they have not been more aggressive - it shows the difference in ownership approaches than days of yore.

 

Paxton certainly is an upgrade over the 2018 Gray & Lynn. They have gotten better.

 

One could argue Eovaldi is an upgrade over the 2018 Pomeranz. -maybe not as much as the Yankee improvement but it does lessen the differential.

[notin]

Paxton certainly is an upgrade over the 2018 Gray & Lynn. They have gotten better.

 

One could argue Eovaldi is an upgrade over the 2018 Pomeranz. -maybe not as much as the Yankee improvement but it does lessen the differential.

 

 

 

Only Yankee mid-season acquisitions count as upgrades. Learn the rules!!!

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Sale also indicated that his left shoulder – which was a problem at times late last season, when he dealt with a massive drop in velocity – is no longer an issue.

&

 

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday he doesn’t expect that all three of the team’s catchers – Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart – will be on its Opening Day roster, Sean McAdam of BostonSportsJournal.com reports (subscription required). Because all of those players are out of options, a trade is likely coming. Dombrowski noted that “there’s interest, but we still haven’t made a deal we feel comfortable making.” All three catchers had abysmal offensive seasons over 200-plus plate appearances in 2018, but if defense is Boston’s main concern, the odd man out may be Swihart. After all, the former high-end prospect has accrued little playing time as a backstop over the past few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

We also got and kept Happ

[jacksonianmarch]

I will be curious what happens to Bogaerts - I could easily see (based on this offseason and Boras being a very very smart man) Bogey taking a 2 year deal and betting on a brand new CBA.

 

Bogey is going to get a big contract. Machado is still seeing a huge contract offer. Bogey isn’t going to pass up a 9 figure contract

[moonslav59]

We also got and kept Happ

 

That counts but not Eovaldi & Pearce.

[jacksonianmarch]

It might not - Paxton makes it a net plus. I think the Red Sox are better - though they did overperform their run differential (a run differential of a 103 win team iirc, so we performed monstrously anyway). The Yankees have basically added a legit starter and tinkered along the edges. As I've noted before, I am surprised they have not been more aggressive - it shows the difference in ownership approaches than days of yore.

 

They locked up the middle of their pen with guys good enough to close for other squads. They dealt from a strength and picked up a guy with ace stuff and production without the durability to man the #2 spot in the rotation. We locked up Happ for the next 2 seasons. We locked up CC on another one year deal. We returned Gardner, although I don't believe he's a guarantee to start. We also signed Lemahieu, who allows us a "jack of all trades" style player that Cashman has been yearning for for years. Our only subtractions are Gray and Robertson, both have been replaced with players who had superior seasons in the year prior. Based on pythag, we should have been 99-63. The sox should have been 103-59. I anticipate we have closed that gap on paper

[jacksonianmarch]

That counts but not Eovaldi & Pearce.

 

That's ridiculous. Happ pitched circles around Eovaldi for the final two months of the season. Eovaldi has a good October and all of a sudden, he's amazing. I have seen this before. Newsflash, he's gonna be maddeningly inconsistent for you. Pearce is a journeyman platoon mate. Happ and Britton will have a higher WAR than Eovaldi and Pearce in 2019. Those are the two players we each acquired at the break last year

[moonslav59]

That's ridiculous. Happ pitched circles around Eovaldi for the final two months of the season. Eovaldi has a good October and all of a sudden, he's amazing. I have seen this before. Newsflash, he's gonna be maddeningly inconsistent for you. Pearce is a journeyman platoon mate. Happ and Britton will have a higher WAR than Eovaldi and Pearce in 2019. Those are the two players we each acquired at the break last year

 

I never said Eovaldi is better than Happ, but whenever we bring up the fact that we will be helped by having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season, you crap all over the notion.

 

Both teams will be helped by having these players for a full season. I never said it would be equal or more of a gain for the Sox.

 

Stop strawmaning.

[moonslav59]

They locked up the middle of their pen with guys good enough to close for other squads. They dealt from a strength and picked up a guy with ace stuff and production without the durability to man the #2 spot in the rotation. We locked up Happ for the next 2 seasons. We locked up CC on another one year deal. We returned Gardner, although I don't believe he's a guarantee to start. We also signed Lemahieu, who allows us a "jack of all trades" style player that Cashman has been yearning for for years. Our only subtractions are Gray and Robertson, both have been replaced with players who had superior seasons in the year prior. Based on pythag, we should have been 99-63. The sox should have been 103-59. I anticipate we have closed that gap on paper

 

Looks good on paper.

 

I will add that I thought Drury, Neil Walker and Torreyes were the "jack of all trades" Cashman has always yearned for.