A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Likely PAs and IP'd lost from 2018

 

PAs

195 HRam (.708)

143 Kinsler (.604)

27 Phillips (.520)

 

Possible gains:

More PAs for Pearce, Pedey, Holt, Nunez

(Vaz may take some PAs from Leon & Devers could get more.)

 

IP

74 Pomeranz (6.08)

66 Joe Kelly (4.39)

62 C Kimbrel (2.74)

17 W Cuevas (7.41)

14 C Smith (3.77)

6 Jalen Beeks (12.79)

 

Possible gains:

More IP from Eovaldi, Wright, Johnson, Velazquez, Thornburg, Poyner, Workman

 

 

[moonslav59]

We could see this increase in playing time for 2019 (assuming no injuries):

 

Pearce (.901) 165 PAs to over 350.

Vazquez (.540) 269 PAs to over 350.

Devers (.731) 490 PAs to over 550 or 600.

Holt (.774) 367 PAs to over 450.

(Betts and Bogey missed some time in 2018: both could gain 50-100 PAs.)

 

Eovaldi (3.33) 54 IP to over 150.

Sale (2.11) 158 IP to over 190.

ERod (3.82) 130 IP to over 170.

Wright (2.68) 54 IP to over 140.

Brasier (1.60) 34 IP to over 60.

Thornburg (5.63) 24 IP to over 50.

Poyner (3.22) 22 Ip to over 40.

 

 

 

[notin]

That rule was changed last bargaining session, too.

 

What was changed? Wouldn’t the claiming team take on his contract?

 

Not that Castillo would get claimed anyway. His chances of being claimed on waivers are roughly equal to the chances of me being claimed on waivers...

[moonslav59]

What was changed? Wouldn’t the claiming team take on his contract?

 

Not that Castillo would get claimed anyway. His chances of being claimed on waivers are roughly equal to the chances of me being claimed on waivers...

 

No team would claim him, but he might end up like Pablo- playing for min wage as we pay the remainder of the salary owed.

 

(I'm guessing that salary would count against our luxury budget.)

[Nick]

We could see this increase in playing time for 2019 (assuming no injuries):

 

Pearce (.901) 165 PAs to over 350.

Vazquez (.540) 269 PAs to over 350.

Devers (.731) 490 PAs to over 550 or 600.

Holt (.774) 367 PAs to over 450.

(Betts and Bogey missed some time in 2018: both could gain 50-100 PAs.)

 

Eovaldi (3.33) 54 IP to over 150.

Sale (2.11) 158 IP to over 190.

ERod (3.82) 130 IP to over 170.

Wright (2.68) 54 IP to over 140.

Brasier (1.60) 34 IP to over 60.

Thornburg (5.63) 24 IP to over 50.

Poyner (3.22) 22 Ip to over 40.

 

 

 

 

E Rod needs to stay healthy. He's never pitched 140 innings in his 4 years (granted yr 1 was abbreviated via late start). But the ceiling in high if everyone stays healthy.

 

I'm excited for Pearce having a full year with the Sox.

 

No more talk of not playing Devers. Our payroll is OVER $40M over the luxury tax limit. We need to live with Devers at 3B. Don't forget the clutch hits he delivered during playoffs.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

E Rod needs to stay healthy. He's never pitched 140 innings in his 4 years (granted yr 1 was abbreviated via late start). But the ceiling in high if everyone stays healthy.

 

Yes, it's a good starting point with possibilities to have great gains without adding any new players.

 

Of course, someone will get hurt, but it will take a lot of injuries to cancel out the above additions, and I didn't even mention Pedey.

[oldtimer]

No team would claim him, but he might end up like Pablo- playing for min wage as we pay the remainder of the salary owed.

 

(I'm guessing that salary would count against our luxury budget.)

 

From what I hear you are correct, hence Castillo is a victim of the system if you call getting paid millions to play in the minors being a victim.

[harmony]

For what it's worth, Steamer projects Ryan Brasier with 34 saves in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=8,d

 

Good news for my fantasy team.:)

[moonslav59]

For what it's worth, Steamer projects Ryan Brasier with 34 saves in 2019:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=8,d

 

Good news for my fantasy team.:)

 

How many for Barnes and Thornburg?

 

I guess they made their choice on who they think our closer will be.

[harmony]

How many for Barnes and Thornburg?

 

I guess they made their choice on who they think our closer will be.

It's clear from the rankings that Steamer selected a single closer for each team to the exclusion of other candidates.

 

I like that Steamer projects 34 saves for newly acquired Seattle reliever Anthony Swarzak and only 33 saves for Edwin Diaz, who was traded with Robinson Cano for Swarzak and others.

 

If I were a betting person (I'm not), I would take the under on the saves projections for Ryan Brasier and Swarzak.:)

[notin]

Steamer and other pubically available systems publish their projections, which can be compared and contrasted for validity and reliability year to year.

 

Unlike the anonymous internet poster who can virtually bury his or her projections.

 

Technically BDC buried those projections...

[moonslav59]

Technically BDC buried those projections...

 

There's still a lot here to dig up, if one is so inclined.

[moonslav59]

Kinsler signs for $8M/2 with the Padres.

[moonslav59]

The Angels have signed Trevor Cahill. It’s said to be a one-year, $9MM deal. Cahill will be able to tack on another $1.5MM via incentives.

[dgalehouse]

What was changed? Wouldn’t the claiming team take on his contract?

 

Not that Castillo would get claimed anyway. His chances of being claimed on waivers are roughly equal to the chances of me being claimed on waivers...

Steamer projects your chances of being claimed on waivers as something less than 0.00 .

[notin]

Steamer projects your chances of being claimed on waivers as something less than 0.00 .

 

And that’s why I don’t trust Steamer. The WAPM has my chances at being claimed at exactly 0.0...

[cp176]

Steamer projects your chances of being claimed on waivers as something less than 0.00 .

 

Is that a Stanley Steamer by any chance?

I am a little curious actually - I wonder how many different websites there are out there from which we can get the same data?

[cp176]

And that’s why I don’t trust Steamer. The WAPM has my chances at being claimed at exactly 0.0...

 

 

And all this time I thought that WAPM was native American currency.

[moonslav59]

And all this time I thought that WAPM was native American currency.

 

I thought it was the computer used in the movie War Games and notin modified it.

[notin]

I thought it was the computer used in the movie War Games and notin modified it.

 

 

It’s been explained before. The WAPM (Wildly Accurate Projection Machine) is a product of Notin Industries, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Notin TransGlobal MegaCorp (NTMC)...

[mvp 78]

I thought it was the computer used in the movie War Games and notin modified it.

 

Lies. It's just a flight simulator from Project X.

[moonslav59]

It’s been explained before. The WAPM (Wildly Accurate Projection Machine) is a product of Notin Industries, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Notin TransGlobal MegaCorp (NTMC)...

 

Fess up! It's made of cardboard with glossy paint!

[notin]

Fess up! It's made of cardboard with glossy paint!

 

 

And elbow macaroni...

[Emp9]

I don't think we have to be critical but we can point out bad contracts.

 

Here's the story behind Castillo signing.

 

Red Sox came in second for Abreu. I think we missed by few million dollars. We were determined not to come in second the following year when Castillo became available. You can't blame our GM for trying. It just hasn't worked out.

.

 

To this day I have a problem with the Abreu signing. I’m mean, we’re were in the middle of the playoffs/World Series. It was at the very least a bit awkward to be put in that position.

[moonslav59]

To this day I have a problem with the Abreu signing. I’m mean, we’re were in the middle of the playoffs/World Series. It was at the very least a bit awkward to be put in that position.

 

Think of how signing Abreu, instead of Castillo might have changed a lot of poor, future choices we made.

[moonslav59]

Soria signs with the A's for $15M/2.

 

Thoughts of signing a solid RP'er on the cheap seem very remote.

[kenmeister]

Soria signs with the A's for $15M/2.

 

Thoughts of signing a solid RP'er on the cheap seem very remote.

 

Darn; would have liked to get him.

[moonslav59]

Darn; would have liked to get him.

 

He'll be 35 next season.

 

I'm hoping we can do better. I think a trade is the best way to get a solid RP'er and not kill our budget.

[kenmeister]

He'll be 35 next season.

 

I'm hoping we can do better. I think a trade is the best way to get a solid RP'er and not kill our budget.

 

2.56 ERA last season so maybe he's still a young 35

 

What do you think it would take to pry Leclerc away from the Rangers? 1.56 ERA in 57 innings pitched, WHIP of just 0.85, 85 strikeouts to just 25 walks. I want I want I want!!!

[moonslav59]

2.56 ERA last season so maybe he's still a young 35

 

What do you think it would take to pry Leclerc away from the Rangers? 1.56 ERA in 57 innings pitched, WHIP of just 0.85, 85 strikeouts to just 25 walks. I want I want I want!!!

 

Soria's ERA was 3.13, if you count his whole season.