A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I heard on the soxprospects.com latest podcast that the Sox plan to use a 6 man rotation the first 2-3 times through the rotation to start the 2019 season.

 

They doubt Wright will be ready by opening day after November knee surgery. Velazquez has options, so they weren't sure he makes the opening day roster, so I guess the 6 would be: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, ERod & Johnson.

 

They think the Sox are not looking to sign a RP'er to more than a year, because they have faith in the pipeline: (Poyner) Lakins, D Hernandez & Feltman

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/12/podcast-ep-150-we-know-what-roman.html

 

[kenmeister]

I think a 6 man rotation is a great idea to start the season with, and maybe also for August to give pitchers a little breather.

[moonslav59]

The Giants announced Friday that they’ve signed switch-pitcher Pat Venditte to a one-year, Major League contract. The addition of Venditte brings San Francisco’s 40-man roster to a total of 38 players. Venditte’s guarantee is a modest $585K that checks in just $30K north of the league minimum.

 

 

[moonslav59]

The A's get Profar in a 3 team deal.

[kenmeister]

Andrew Miller goes to the Cardinals. Also wanted him.

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25587776/st-louis-cardinals-sign-lefty-reliever-andrew-miller-two-year-deal

[Emp9]

Think of how signing Abreu, instead of Castillo might have changed a lot of poor, future choices we made.

 

I have! Lol haha! And I’ve astounded myself. It’s usually pretty difficult to self-astound.

[jacksonianmarch]

I heard on the soxprospects.com latest podcast that the Sox plan to use a 6 man rotation the first 2-3 times through the rotation to start the 2019 season.

 

They doubt Wright will be ready by opening day after November knee surgery. Velazquez has options, so they weren't sure he makes the opening day roster, so I guess the 6 would be: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, ERod & Johnson.

 

They think the Sox are not looking to sign a RP'er to more than a year, because they have faith in the pipeline: (Poyner) Lakins, D Hernandez & Feltman

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2018/12/podcast-ep-150-we-know-what-roman.html

 

 

jsinger has always had the Kool Aid flowing when it comes to sox prospects. I've seen Poyner and he's a lefty nothing baller who's first taste of the bigs was marred by the HR rate. The other guys might actually have a future in Boston, but Poyner really sounds like a mopup man

[moonslav59]

jsinger has always had the Kool Aid flowing when it comes to sox prospects. I've seen Poyner and he's a lefty nothing baller who's first taste of the bigs was marred by the HR rate. The other guys might actually have a future in Boston, but Poyner really sounds like a mopup man

 

I put Poyner in parenthesis, because the really talked mostly about the other 3 and just mentioned Poyner on the side.

[moonslav59]

Charlie Morton to Rays for $30M/2 with 3rd year option triggered by days missed over 2 seasons.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox were clearly the best team in 2018. So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same. It will be interesting to see just how much the others are closing the gap. Perhaps D.D. will still come up with a couple of nice signings before too long.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Astros lost Keuchel, Morton and McCullers for 2019. The only returning starting pitchers are Verlander and Cole. Yes, they have McHugh and Peacock capable of starting and Whitley and James in the wings, but they are losing 3 starters with big production and replacing them with guys less likely to succeed.

 

The Guardians dealt off Encarnacion and Gomez while bringing back Santana, which is a definite downgrade offensively. Add to that the losses of Brantley, Miller and Allen and I doubt the Guardians are gonna scare the sox, even though they still likely are the best team in the central.

 

The only team that hasn't lost much is the Yanks. Yes, Britton and KRob are still on the market, but the pen has been a significant strength and still is with the loss of those guys. We added Paxton which will make our team far more lethal. If we sign one pen arm and then nab Machado, we will be significantly improved.

 

The sox are still the champs, but their entire loss of a pen is going to be tough to replace. Right now, I have a hard time thinking the sox can repeat with the sieve in the back end, but I doubt the sox don't lock down at least the closer spot

[moonslav59]

The Sox were clearly the best team in 2018. So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same. It will be interesting to see just how much the others are closing the gap. Perhaps D.D. will still come up with a couple of nice signings before too long.

 

We are much better than the team that started the season, but if you look at the 2019 opening day team vs the 2018 playoff team, we are...

 

Minus: Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom and Kinsler

 

Plus: Maybe Pedey, hopefully Thornburg, Wright and whatever RP'er we pick up along the way.

 

We can also hope DD works his mid season magic like he did with Eovaldi & Pearce this year.

 

Look at the Yankee and Astros scorecard. They have yet to replace what they lost.

[moonslav59]

We are much better than the team that started the season, but if you look at the 2019 opening day team vs the 2018 playoff team, we are...

 

Minus: Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom and Kinsler

 

Plus: Maybe Pedey, hopefully Thornburg, Wright and whatever RP'er we pick up along the way.

 

We can also hope DD works his mid season magic like he did with Eovaldi & Pearce this year.

 

Look at the Yankee and Astros scorecard. They have yet to replace what they lost.

 

The Yanks will have Didi on the bench injured to start the year and have yet to replace Britton, Robertson & Lynn. (I may be missing others.)

 

The Astros lost Morton and will likely lose Keuchel and Gonzalez. They signed an injury plagues Brantley, so far.

 

The Guardians are looking to dump stars.

[Larry Cook]

We are much better than the team that started the season, but if you look at the 2019 opening day team vs the 2018 playoff team, we are...

 

Minus: Kimbrel, Kelly, Pom and Kinsler

 

Plus: Maybe Pedey, hopefully Thornburg, Wright and whatever RP'er we pick up along the way.

 

We can also hope DD works his mid season magic like he did with Eovaldi & Pearce this year.

 

Look at the Yankee and Astros scorecard. They have yet to replace what they lost.

 

Does desperate Dave pull the trigger on resigning kimbrel, if he can get kimbrel for 4 years and something between 65-70 million?

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yanks will have Didi on the bench injured to start the year and have yet to replace Britton, Robertson & Lynn. (I may be missing others.)

 

The Astros lost Morton and will likely lose Keuchel and Gonzalez. They signed an injury plagues Brantley, so far.

 

The Guardians are looking to dump stars.

 

We replaced Lynn with Paxton. That’s quite a significant upgrade. Didi is on the bench for the first two months, most likely and Machado is still more likely to sign with us. Our pen lost KRob and 2 months worth of Britton, yet we also have high end prospects capable of doing well in a pen for us and yet we are still linked to Ottavino and Britton. Dude, get your head out of the sand. The Yanks are going for it this year.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox were clearly the best team in 2018. So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same. It will be interesting to see just how much the others are closing the gap. Perhaps D.D. will still come up with a couple of nice signings before too long.

 

You don't think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season counts as improvements?

 

The only area of question for us is the bullpen, and that will also be addressed.

[Kimmi]

The Sox were clearly the best team in 2018. So far this off season , the competition is improving while the Sox are having some difficulty just staying the same. It will be interesting to see just how much the others are closing the gap. Perhaps D.D. will still come up with a couple of nice signings before too long.

 

The Sox were 5 games over their Pythagorean W-L, which had them at 103 wins.

The Yankees were 1 game over, which had them at 99 wins.

The Astros were 6 games under, which had them at 109 wins.

 

The point being, on paper, the Sox were not the best team last year. The Yankees were the heavy favorite for the division when the season started.

 

The Red Sox will be fine.

 

Back to back to back to back.

[notin]

You don't think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season counts as improvements?

 

 

 

If you look at the careers of both, the level of improvement is up for debate.

 

I guess Eovaldi is an improvement over a gimpy Pomeranz. But Pomeranz wasn’t really gimpy last December....

[Kimmi]

The Astros lost Keuchel, Morton and McCullers for 2019. The only returning starting pitchers are Verlander and Cole. Yes, they have McHugh and Peacock capable of starting and Whitley and James in the wings, but they are losing 3 starters with big production and replacing them with guys less likely to succeed.

 

The Guardians dealt off Encarnacion and Gomez while bringing back Santana, which is a definite downgrade offensively. Add to that the losses of Brantley, Miller and Allen and I doubt the Guardians are gonna scare the sox, even though they still likely are the best team in the central.

 

The only team that hasn't lost much is the Yanks. Yes, Britton and KRob are still on the market, but the pen has been a significant strength and still is with the loss of those guys. We added Paxton which will make our team far more lethal. If we sign one pen arm and then nab Machado, we will be significantly improved.

 

The sox are still the champs, but their entire loss of a pen is going to be tough to replace. Right now, I have a hard time thinking the sox can repeat with the sieve in the back end, but I doubt the sox don't lock down at least the closer spot

 

And yet the Sox are still the early WAR leaders, even with our 'sieve in the back end'.

 

As you did last season, keep trying to convince yourself that the Sox aren't going to beat the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

Does desperate Dave pull the trigger on resigning kimbrel, if he can get kimbrel for 4 years and something between 65-70 million?

 

Personally, I hope not.

 

Get him down to 3 years, then we can talk.

[Bellhorn04]

If you look at the careers of both, the level of improvement is up for debate.

 

I guess Eovaldi is an improvement over a gimpy Pomeranz. But Pomeranz wasn’t really gimpy last December....

 

Sure, they're only potential improvements. They're certainly attempted improvements. I'm just not sure why dgalehouse spoke as if we haven't done anything yet this offseason.

[notin]

We replaced Lynn with Paxton. That’s quite a significant upgrade. Didi is on the bench for the first two months, most likely and Machado is still more likely to sign with us. Our pen lost KRob and 2 months worth of Britton, yet we also have high end prospects capable of doing well in a pen for us and yet we are still linked to Ottavino and Britton. Dude, get your head out of the sand. The Yanks are going for it this year.

 

Is Paxton really an upgrade?

 

He’s a better pitcher, but if the Sox has acquired him I would expect a few reminders about how he has only pitched more than 136 IP onetime in his career. Lance Lynn, conversely, has only pitched less than 160 IP once in his career. (Although he did miss a season with TJ.)

[Bellhorn04]

Is Paxton really an upgrade?

 

He’s a better pitcher, but if the Sox has acquired him I would expect a few reminders about how he has only pitched more than 136 IP onetime in his career. Lance Lynn, conversely, has only pitched less than 160 IP once in his career. (Although he did miss a season with TJ.)

 

Paxton is an upgrade if healthy, that's for sure.

[moonslav59]

Does desperate Dave pull the trigger on resigning kimbrel, if he can get kimbrel for 4 years and something between 65-70 million?

 

I would not. WE have too many better players to re-sign in the next 2-3 years.

 

What DD does is anyone's guess.

[moonslav59]

We replaced Lynn with Paxton. That’s quite a significant upgrade. Didi is on the bench for the first two months, most likely and Machado is still more likely to sign with us. Our pen lost KRob and 2 months worth of Britton, yet we also have high end prospects capable of doing well in a pen for us and yet we are still linked to Ottavino and Britton. Dude, get your head out of the sand. The Yanks are going for it this year.

 

Yes, Paxton is a big plus over Lynn, but I was responding to tghe post about other teams getting better, so far, and us getting worse.

 

Paxton is not greater than Britton, Robertson and Lynn combined.

 

As of now, all big AL teams look worse on paper.

[moonslav59]

You don't think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season counts as improvements?

 

The only area of question for us is the bullpen, and that will also be addressed.

 

It should be an improvement, but not really for the 2019 playoff team vs the 2018 playoff team.

 

Maybe that's what he was getting at.

[Bellhorn04]

It should be an improvement, but not really for the 2019 playoff team vs the 2018 playoff team.

 

Maybe that's what he was getting at.

 

It's pretty hard to improve on a 119-57 season anyway.

[moonslav59]

It's pretty hard to improve on a 119-57 season anyway.

 

Yes, indeed, but I understand the sentiment about not wanting to stand still or get worse while others get better.

 

I prefer tolook at how our team looked last winter vs this winter- same with the Yanks, Stros and Guardians.

 

[dgalehouse]

You don't think having Eovaldi and Pearce for a full season counts as improvements?

 

The only area of question for us is the bullpen, and that will also be addressed.

 

What I am saying is that there is no improvement over the team that won it all this year. Basically the same team minus Kelly and Kimbrel . D.D. needs to fill those shoes just to stay as good as we were at the end . Sure , it will be good to have Eovaldi and Pearce from the start .

[dgalehouse]

A big mistake was made after the 2013 championship. Absolutely nothing was accomplished that off season . I felt that complacency was evident. The results were not too good. I think you need to stay aggressive.