A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I really think, if JD opts out, he won't get much more of an AAV in his next deal... maybe $1-3M more per year.

 

He will get more than 3 yrs though. And one must remember, JD's contract is front loaded. He will take the $50 mil he will earn from Boston for 18-19, put it in the bank and probably get a 4 yr deal around the $25 mil mark. JD would be opting out of a 3 yr $60 mil deal, which he should beat on the market

[Bellhorn04]

He will get more than 3 yrs though. And one must remember, JD's contract is front loaded. He will take the $50 mil he will earn from Boston for 18-19, put it in the bank and probably get a 4 yr deal around the $25 mil mark. JD would be opting out of a 3 yr $60 mil deal, which he should beat on the market

 

It's hard to say. Because he is essentially a DH. And it does seem like the stat geeks are influencing front offices to a certain degree.

[notin]

It's hard to say. Because he is essentially a DH. And it does seem like the stat geeks are influencing front offices to a certain degree.

 

The big competition for slugging OF/DH types on the market next year will be Khris Davis and Yasiel Puig. This timing is probably not coincidental.

 

There should be a few notable slugging first basemen - Abreu, Rizzo, Goldschmidt...

[Maxbialystock]

Me, too. I often am a contrarian, especially when people make blanket statements using the superlatives words or "always and never."

 

JD is a great hitter and is a different type of hitter than Betts. To me, Betts is better up second, because he gets on base a little more and has better speed (which is not part of my "best hitter" statement, but should be a part of the choice, when things are close). JD may be a slightly better RBI guy, but even if he's even with Betts in power and driving in runs, I put Betts second.

 

I'm okay with Betts at leadoff, but I think the extra RBI opportunities batting second outweigh the extra PAs he would get up first.

 

I like Bogey up 3rd. He's found some power, has decent speed and just seems like a great fit in front of JD up 4th.

 

I have a lot of faith in Devers having a monster or near monster year in 2019. He's up 5th for me with Pearce batting 5th vs LHPs (if he's not up 3rd).

 

Interesting. I too agree with those five. I've kind of stayed away from talksox because the season ended, but came back to check this thread out because it's always about what's going on with the Sox.

 

And quite independently I had concluded something similar--that those five will key to the Sox lineup. And key to that was, just as you say, it's time for the real Devers to emerge.

[Bellhorn04]

And key to that was, just as you say, it's time for the real Devers to emerge.

 

It's so easy to forget how young he is - just turned 22.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. I too agree with those five. I've kind of stayed away from talksox because the season ended, but came back to check this thread out because it's always about what's going on with the Sox.

 

And quite independently I had concluded something similar--that those five will key to the Sox lineup. And key to that was, just as you say, it's time for the real Devers to emerge.

 

Good to see you back, Max.

[Maxbialystock]

Kinsler just signed with the Padres. Is this a problem?

[moonslav59]

Kinsler just signed with the Padres. Is this a problem?

 

LOL.

 

For them, maybe.

[moonslav59]

Familia gets $30M/3 with the Mets.

 

I thought he might be an option, but these contracts are too much, so far this winter.

[oldtimer]

Familia gets $30M/3 with the Mets.

 

I thought he might be an option, but these contracts are too much, so far this winter.

 

Imagine what Kimbrel will get. The contracts for good but not great relief pitchers is getting absurd.

[moonslav59]

Any talk of contract costs leveling out has to be discarded at this point in the winter.

 

[Larry Cook]

Kimbrel is asking for 6 years? Who would do that?

[moonslav59]

Kimbrel is asking for 6 years? Who would do that?

 

I doubt he gets 6.

 

Without the Yanks or Dodgers in need of a closer, it's hard to think of anyone giving 5 x $17 to $19M per.

[Kimmi]

For the regular season, there's no question that Mookie had the better numbers.

 

Now if you throw in the postseason, the comparison gets more interesting.

 

2018 postseason OPS

 

JDM .923

Betts .623

 

JD continued to be the same consistent force throughout the playoffs, while Mookie struggled.

 

Wait a minute. Are you saying Mookie is a choker?

 

You should know better than to base anything off of postseason numbers.

[Kimmi]

Me, too. I often am a contrarian, especially when people make blanket statements using the superlatives words or "always and never."

 

JD is a great hitter and is a different type of hitter than Betts. To me, Betts is better up second, because he gets on base a little more and has better speed (which is not part of my "best hitter" statement, but should be a part of the choice, when things are close). JD may be a slightly better RBI guy, but even if he's even with Betts in power and driving in runs, I put Betts second.

 

I'm okay with Betts at leadoff, but I think the extra RBI opportunities batting second outweigh the extra PAs he would get up first.

 

I like Bogey up 3rd. He's found some power, has decent speed and just seems like a great fit in front of JD up 4th.

 

I have a lot of faith in Devers having a monster or near monster year in 2019. He's up 5th for me with Pearce batting 5th vs LHPs (if he's not up 3rd).

 

Your best 3 hitters in terms of OPS or wOBA should bat 1, 2, and 4, with emphasis on OBP in the 1st and 2nd spots and power in 4th spot.

[Bellhorn04]

Wait a minute. Are you saying Mookie is a choker?

 

You should know better than to base anything off of postseason numbers.

 

Not really my intention. But if you expand the 2018 numbers to include the postseason, the gap between Mookie and JD gets pretty small.

 

Here are the total numbers for each:

 

Mookie 332/424/607 - 1031 OPS

JDM 328/402/620 - 1023 OPS

[moonslav59]

Your best 3 hitters in terms of OPS or wOBA should bat 1, 2, and 4, with emphasis on OBP in the 1st and 2nd spots and power in 4th spot.

 

Yes, and some say 5th is more important than 4th, but I want JD 4th. I don't go by just one season, but for this analysis, I will.

 

2018 Splits:

vs RHPs (OBP)/SLG)

.427 Betts .610

.407 JD .644

.387 Beni .490

.367 Pearce .458

.354 Holt .434

.348 Bogey .553

.332 JBJ .437

.331 Moreland .450

.307 Devers .464

vs LHPs

.471 Betts .736

.433 Pearce .585

.402 Bogey .407

.395 Holt .323

.386 JD .580

,305 Moreland .379

.301 Beni .393

.272 Devers .347

.260 JBJ .303

 

First, I'm not expecting these same numbers from Devers. Second, Look at the splits for Bogey and Beni: they scream for being flipped in the line-up depending on who is pitching.

 

One could argue batting Betts 1st and JD 2nd. They both get on base more athan anyone, but I go with this:

 

vs RHP

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Moreland/Pearce (Yes, Pearce ve several righties)

 

vs LHPs

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Pearce

4. JD

5. Beni

6. Devers

 

 

 

 

 

[Emp9]

For the regular season, there's no question that Mookie had the better numbers.

 

Now if you throw in the postseason, the comparison gets more interesting.

 

2018 postseason OPS

 

JDM .923

Betts .623

 

JD continued to be the same consistent force throughout the playoffs, while Mookie struggled.

 

But did you happen to notice or remember how absolutely s***** Mookie's strike zone was this past post season? It was abysmal. He struck out looking on many pitches that you wouldn't want him swinging at to begin with ( or any of our batters for that matter ). 6in -10in out of the zone. It truly was the worst part about our post season, umps giving Mookie zero respect and it really took him out of his game, not surprisingly. So, I'm not sure how much weight I can honestly put on his playoff numbers compared to his and JDM's overall numbers. It is close though, I just give Betts the edge. The main thing is that both are good enough to hit to all fields, they don't have to swing for the fences at every AB.

[Kimmi]

Not really my intention. But if you expand the 2018 numbers to include the postseason, the gap between Mookie and JD gets pretty small.

 

Here are the total numbers for each:

 

Mookie 332/424/607 - 1031 OPS

JDM 328/402/620 - 1023 OPS

 

Fair enough.

[Kimmi]

Yes, and some say 5th is more important than 4th, but I want JD 4th. I don't go by just one season, but for this analysis, I will.

 

2018 Splits:

vs RHPs (OBP)/SLG)

.427 Betts .610

.407 JD .644

.387 Beni .490

.367 Pearce .458

.354 Holt .434

.348 Bogey .553

.332 JBJ .437

.331 Moreland .450

.307 Devers .464

vs LHPs

.471 Betts .736

.433 Pearce .585

.402 Bogey .407

.395 Holt .323

.386 JD .580

,305 Moreland .379

.301 Beni .393

.272 Devers .347

.260 JBJ .303

 

First, I'm not expecting these same numbers from Devers. Second, Look at the splits for Bogey and Beni: they scream for being flipped in the line-up depending on who is pitching.

 

One could argue batting Betts 1st and JD 2nd. They both get on base more athan anyone, but I go with this:

 

vs RHP

1. Beni

2. Betts

3. Bogey

4. JD

5. Devers

6. Moreland/Pearce (Yes, Pearce ve several righties)

 

vs LHPs

1. Bogey

2. Betts

3. Pearce

4. JD

5. Beni

6. Devers

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am just not a fan of micro managing the line up based on who is pitching. It just doesn't make a big enough difference. IMO, it might do more harm than good having the batters hit in different line up spots from day to day.

 

That said, the decision should be based on the player's comfort level in a certain spot, and also the comfort level of having a consistent spot versus being moved around. As we've mentioned many times, I'll trust Cora to know what's best.

[moonslav59]

I am just not a fan of micro managing the line up based on who is pitching. It just doesn't make a big enough difference. IMO, it might do more harm than good having the batters hit in different line up spots from day to day.

 

That said, the decision should be based on the player's comfort level in a certain spot, and also the comfort level of having a consistent spot versus being moved around. As we've mentioned many times, I'll trust Cora to know what's best.

 

Bogey has a 100 point better OBP vs LHPs than Beni. To me, that's at least close enough a margin to think about flipping them.

 

I do think comfort level matters, but I think it is overblown for most players.

 

Besides, it's not like Beni &* Bogey have settled into 1 particular slot. They've been moved about their whole, short careers.

 

PAs by Slot 2018/Career

 

Beni 2018 (w OPS)

551 second .809

97 first .979

9 third .708

Career

840 second .794

204 third .736

97 first .979

94 ninth .929

80 forth ,722

55 fifth .720

39 sixth 1.143

 

Bogey

2018

363 fifth .923

113 fourth .899

64 second .844

39 third .516

 

2019

1154 third .808

562 second .792

472 fifth .875

363 sixth .667

231 seventh .523

1.72 eighth .898

128 first .824

114 fourth .902

 

 

[notin]

I am just not a fan of micro managing the line up based on who is pitching. It just doesn't make a big enough difference.

 

No one is, except for moonslav, who also likes to rotate player positions based on the opposing starting pitching. His other guilty pleasure is 3 team trades that exceed 8 players...

[moonslav59]

No one is, except for moonslav, who also likes to rotate player positions based on the opposing starting pitching. His other guilty pleasure is 3 team trades that exceed 8 players...

 

I'm not as bad as I used to be.

 

[notin]

I'm not as bad as I used to be.

 

 

Down to a 6 player minimum?

[Kimmi]

Bogey has a 100 point better OBP vs LHPs than Beni. To me, that's at least close enough a margin to think about flipping them.

 

I do think comfort level matters, but I think it is overblown for most players.

 

Besides, it's not like Beni &* Bogey have settled into 1 particular slot. They've been moved about their whole, short careers.

 

PAs by Slot 2018/Career

 

Beni 2018 (w OPS)

551 second .809

97 first .979

9 third .708

Career

840 second .794

204 third .736

97 first .979

94 ninth .929

80 forth ,722

55 fifth .720

39 sixth 1.143

 

Bogey

2018

363 fifth .923

113 fourth .899

64 second .844

39 third .516

 

2019

1154 third .808

562 second .792

472 fifth .875

363 sixth .667

231 seventh .523

1.72 eighth .898

128 first .824

114 fourth .902

 

 

 

I understand that most players have batted in several different spots. Comfort level is probably not that big of an issue either, but it's still a bigger issue than any changes you're trying to make based on the opposing pitcher and who might be hot or cold at a particular time of the season.

[Kimmi]

No one is, except for moonslav, who also likes to rotate player positions based on the opposing starting pitching. His other guilty pleasure is 3 team trades that exceed 8 players...

 

Batting line ups have been a topic for debate for as long as we can remember. Old habits die hard.

 

LOL about the trades. I don't have enough time to study all of the other players on all of the other teams in order to know what might work and what won't. I prefer to wait until a trade is made and I know who the particular players involved are to give my two cents on whether it was a good trade or not. Trying to come up with a 3 team, 8 player trade is not going to happen.

[Bellhorn04]

I am just not a fan of micro managing the line up based on who is pitching. It just doesn't make a big enough difference. IMO, it might do more harm than good having the batters hit in different line up spots from day to day.

 

That said, the decision should be based on the player's comfort level in a certain spot, and also the comfort level of having a consistent spot versus being moved around. As we've mentioned many times, I'll trust Cora to know what's best.

 

Exactly.

[oldtimer]

I am just not a fan of micro managing the line up based on who is pitching. It just doesn't make a big enough difference. IMO, it might do more harm than good having the batters hit in different line up spots from day to day.

 

That said, the decision should be based on the player's comfort level in a certain spot, and also the comfort level of having a consistent spot versus being moved around. As we've mentioned many times, I'll trust Cora to know what's best.

 

Kimmi

 

I totally agree with your point of view. Stability might well overwiegh any slight gain one would get by considering staight statistics. I also trust Cora's judgment.

[moonslav59]

I understand that most players have batted in several different spots. Comfort level is probably not that big of an issue either, but it's still a bigger issue than any changes you're trying to make based on the opposing pitcher and who might be hot or cold at a particular time of the season.

 

My line-up suggestion does not have radical slot movement. It's only different from Cora's line-ups with the Beni-Betts flips.

 

Word is Cora will make moves anyway by moving Betts to 2 and Beni to 1, so my plan is barely different in terms of changing player comfort slots.

[moonslav59]

I get that line up changes don't make a big difference, and for the amount of time I spend on suggestions, it's probably wasted time. I just get bored this time of year.