A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Well, those upgrades were with the Sox last year. As of right now, the biggest name on the 2019 Red Sox who wasn’t on the 2018 Red Sox is Colten Brewer, a man the overwhelming majority of us never heard of 12 months ago...

 

I disagree with that position. Eovaldi and Pearce were with the team 2 months last year. Having them for 6 months is an upgrade.

[jad]

RS already have the highest payroll in MLB. So exactly who could they have gotten, and what would it have cost (in terms of players they would have to give up to make room).

[Slasher9]

Slasher , The slow start may be just one of those things . As John Sterling would say , " That's baseball , Suzyn ." I would say the most obvious thing was losing our closer plus another power arm from the pen . Nothing was done in that area . Kimbrel was likely too expensive , but there were at least a half dozen quality relievers available for an affordable price. Hopefully, Barnes can fill the closer's role . But he was already an important part of the bullpen. Somebody has to take his spot . The closer is the linchpin of the pen , but not the whole answer. You need four or five good arms out there . We will see how it goes as the season develops . The offense figures to be strong enough to carry a light hitting catcher , although that is not optimal. My feeling is that with a little creative thinking , enough money could have been freed up to patch the holes .

 

all fair points. and i will agree with you when/if our W/L woes fall on the BP or light hitting catcher. but i do not see any moves we could have done regarding SPing. i like our rotation. nay, i LOVE our rotation. i do not expect another 5 in a row SP disaster the rest of the season.

[Bellhorn04]

I’m not so sure payroll is the limiting factor we thought it was three months ago, given the recent splurge on extensions. And moved could have been made to free up some money.

 

The extensions don't affect the 2019 payroll for tax purposes, though. And what realistic moves would have freed up money in a helpful way?

[notin]

The extensions don't affect the 2019 payroll for tax purposes, though. And what realistic moves would have freed up money in a helpful way?

 

 

Maybe moving Porcello or Vazquez or Moreland. I know he tried to trade Bradley, but what offers was he rejecting?

 

Or are you saying moving any Sox players to free up money was impossible?

 

At the very least, an entire bullpen plus of major league relievers went unsigned until March and DD remained uninvolved, despite many going for risk-free minor league deals....

[Slasher9]

Whether Denny has specific ideas or not, does standing pat work? I suppose it can, but the Sox did stand patafter 2013 and the results could not have been worse.

 

Look at the Yankees from 1996 to 2000. How many players played the same position for all 4 WS titles? Four? Maybe five, if you want to consider Rivera a relief pitcher and not a closer.

 

They had lots of turnover, especially in the rotation, where only Pettitte was around for the entire run. The bullpen was actually more stable, despite the rude thinking that relievers are crapshoots...

 

we basically already had everyone from last years team under contract (veterans) or team control (the "kids"). i'm not sure what room for "turnover" we had this off season. the most perplexing move to me was actually re-signing the WS MVP. i didnt think we needed to do that and certainly would have rather seen that $$$ spent on pitching (relief). outside of that....i really cannot complain that we didn't trade one of our kids (beni, devi, Xbo, betts, JBj) for RP depth. i am not complaining about the Evo contract either. i thought it was a fair contract.

we certainly couldnt move any of our $$$ contracts outside of Sale (pre re-sign) but he was a keeper on that originally deal.

no one was taking pedroia, price, porcello, castillo, sandoval contracts.

[notin]

Don’t bring back Pearce and non-tender Thornburg and we could have paid for 88% of Ottavino, for example.

 

I’m also surprised the Sox went all off-season and kept both Chavis and Dalbec...

[notin]

we basically already had everyone from last years team under contract (veterans) or team control (the "kids"). i'm not sure what room for "turnover" we had this off season. the most perplexing move to me was actually re-signing the WS MVP. i didnt think we needed to do that and certainly would have rather seen that $$$ spent on pitching (relief). outside of that....i really cannot complain that we didn't trade one of our kids (beni, devi, Xbo, betts, JBj) for RP depth. i am not complaining about the Evo contract either. i thought it was a fair contract.

we certainly couldnt move any of our $$$ contracts outside of Sale (pre re-sign) but he was a keeper on that originally deal.

no one was taking pedroia, price, porcello, castillo, sandoval contracts.

 

 

Of those names, I only listed Porcello. Moreland seems like a tough move, but Vazquez?

[Bellhorn04]

If the bullpen costs us, that's on DD, I agree with that.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe moving Porcello or Vazquez or Moreland. I know he tried to trade Bradley, but what offers was he rejecting?

 

Or are you saying moving any Sox players to free up money was impossible?

 

Definitely not. But it's debatable whether moving any of those guys would have actually helped the team.

[notin]

Definitely not. But it's debatable whether moving any of those guys would have actually helped the team.

 

At the very least, are you in agreement it seemed silly that pitchers like Bud Norris, Alex Wilson, Nick Vincent, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Bush went for minor league deals, while the Sox passed on all in favor of Brian Ellington and Dan Runzler?

[Slasher9]

At the very least, are you in agreement it seemed silly that pitchers like Bud Norris, Alex Wilson, Nick Vincent, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Bush went for minor league deals, while the Sox passed on all in favor of Brian Ellington and Dan Runzler?

 

this is definitely perplexing. but this is NOT the reason that we are off to a 1-4 start. we could have had vintage Eck, goose gossage, and mariano rivera in the Bullpen and we would still be 1-4.....

[notin]

this is definitely perplexing. but this is NOT the reason that we are off to a 1-4 start. we could have had vintage Eck, goose gossage, and mariano rivera in the Bullpen and we would still be 1-4.....

 

 

It was a complaint of mine for most of the off-season. That and prioritizing Pearce over the bullpen.

 

The list has expanded a little, but I’ve been beating this drum for weeks...

[mvp 78]

It was a complaint of mine for most of the off-season. That and prioritizing Pearce over the bullpen.

 

The list has expanded a little, but I’ve been beating this drum for weeks...

 

Has it only been weeks? Seems like longer.

[Maxbialystock]

If the bullpen costs us, that's on DD, I agree with that.

 

And I don't agree because I think DD made the right decisions on Kelly and Kimbrel. My view is that you can't have everything, and Kelly and Kimbrel were/are allowed to go elsewhere because of their cost. This also, however, allows DD to keep the heart of what won for us last year, and I buy his argument--and Cora's--the bullpen will be fine without those two. By putting Leon on waivers, they also kept him available even though he isn't on the 25 man roster.

 

But absolutely nothing makes sense unless and until the rotation starts pitching like they can--and I refuse to buy the argument that the catchers are causing all those bad pitches. More likely, it was the short work in ST that kept them from getting in the groove. I disagree with doing that, but also have the utmost respect for the wisdom of Cora.

[harmony]

I disagree with that position. Eovaldi and Pearce were with the team 2 months last year. Having them for 6 months is an upgrade.

If Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce overperformed with the Red Sox for two months last year (three months for Pearce), this year's performances could be downgrades.

 

Or not.

 

Eovaldi, with a career ERA+ of 95, posted an ERA+ of 132 in 12 appearances with the Red Sox last year. Pearce, with a career OPS+ of 111, posted an OPS+ of 141 in 50 games with the Red Sox last year. Stellar World Series performances may have skewed their value in the public eye.

 

Some Red Sox fans, intoxicated with a World Series title, have made preseason judgments that reflect the intoxication.

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi, with a career ERA+ of 95, posted an ERA+ of 132 in 12 appearances with the Red Sox last year. Pearce, with a career OPS+ of 111, posted an OPS+ of 141 in 50 games with the Red Sox last year. Stellar World Series performances may have skewed their value in the public eye.

 

Some Red Sox fans, intoxicated with a World Series title, have made preseason judgments that reflect the intoxication.

 

Yeesh. It was Dave D. who thought they were worth re-signing.

 

Steamer projected Eovaldi to have a respectable fWAR of 2.4 this year, which I believe would represent an upgrade for us.

 

But maybe Dave and the Red Sox evaluators and the projection people were all 'intoxicated' too.

[harmony]

Yeesh. It was Dave D. who thought they were worth re-signing.

 

Steamer projected Eovaldi to have a respectable fWAR of 2.4 this year, which I believe would represent an upgrade for us.

 

But maybe Dave and the Red Sox evaluators and the projection people were all 'intoxicated' too.

What was Drew Pomeranz's 2018 WAR projection after the lefthander had posted 3.0 and 2.9 fWAR the two previous seasons?

[Bellhorn04]

What was Drew Pomeranz's 2018 WAR projection after the lefthander had posted 3.0 and 2.9 fWAR the two previous seasons?

 

Baseball is a tough game to predict, no kidding.

 

That doesn't make someone 'intoxicated' for thinking 6 months of Eovaldi is an upgrade over 2 months of Eovaldi, I hope.

[notin]

What was Drew Pomeranz's 2018 WAR projection after the lefthander had posted 3.0 and 2.9 fWAR the two previous seasons?

 

 

Higher than what Mallex Smith’s will be this year once my waiver claim goes through. You have no idea the devastating effects of being on my fantasy team.

 

Now behave. Or Marco Gonzalez is next...

[moonslav59]

If Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce overperformed with the Red Sox for two months last year (three months for Pearce), this year's performances could be downgrades.

 

Or not.

 

Eovaldi, with a career ERA+ of 95, posted an ERA+ of 132 in 12 appearances with the Red Sox last year. Pearce, with a career OPS+ of 111, posted an OPS+ of 141 in 50 games with the Red Sox last year. Stellar World Series performances may have skewed their value in the public eye.

 

Some Red Sox fans, intoxicated with a World Series title, have made preseason judgments that reflect the intoxication.

 

You crack me up.

[SCM33]

The bullpen is not the problem.

 

The problem is the starting rotation, and its not close. They are down 5+ runs every night so far through the first couple innings.

[moonslav59]

The problem HAS been the rotation not IS the rotation.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox starting pitching staff has experienced a difficult start to the 2019 season. Chris Sale’s 6 strong innings Tuesday lowered the rotation’s ERA from 11.14 to 9.00. The opposition is batting .313 against the starters.

 

But don’t blame Vazquez and Swihart. Don’t call for Leon’s return. Remember, Vazquez caught 10 of 14 postseason games last year when the pitching staff posted a 3.29 ERA.

 

Before we get too stupid......I know it's coming.

[Maxbialystock]

The problem HAS been the rotation not IS the rotation.

 

No, the problem is not the rotation. The problem is that the Sox have the highest payroll and by far the worst run differential, -18, in MLB.

 

Yes, absolutely, we're only 6 games into a 162 game season and have barely started. And this is pretty close to the same bunch of guys who won 108 last year before winning 8 of 11 in the ALDS, ALCS, and WS.

 

But one of the reasons 2018 was so successful was that the Sox were 17-2 after 19 games and were able to withstand a win streak by the Yankees early in the season. Now they're 1-5 and every starter is at least mildly suspect. Oh, and the lineup just got shut out twice by the A's. The Rays are in our division and have the best ERA in MLB.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[oldtimer]

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox starting pitching staff has experienced a difficult start to the 2019 season. Chris Sale’s 6 strong innings Tuesday lowered the rotation’s ERA from 11.14 to 9.00. The opposition is batting .313 against the starters.

 

But don’t blame Vazquez and Swihart. Don’t call for Leon’s return. Remember, Vazquez caught 10 of 14 postseason games last year when the pitching staff posted a 3.29 ERA.

 

Before we get too stupid......I know it's coming.

 

Not a good start by the team. Sale and the BP did the job but 7 hits without a run. This team needs to get it going.

[moonslav59]

Per MassLive

 

The Red Sox starting pitching staff has experienced a difficult start to the 2019 season. Chris Sale’s 6 strong innings Tuesday lowered the rotation’s ERA from 11.14 to 9.00. The opposition is batting .313 against the starters.

 

But don’t blame Vazquez and Swihart. Don’t call for Leon’s return. Remember, Vazquez caught 10 of 14 postseason games last year when the pitching staff posted a 3.29 ERA.

 

Before we get too stupid......I know it's coming.

 

I'm probably Leon's biggest supporter on this site and a big believer in CERA-related skills, but the sample size is way too small to use as an argument to bring Leon back.

[oldtimer]

I'm probably Leon's biggest supporter on this site and a big believer in CERA-related skills, but the sample size is way too small to use as an argument to bring Leon back.

 

Maybe the question that should be asked is, Was the Spring Training preparation adequate? There was very little opportunity for the Starters to work the bugs out and very little time for the starting field players to be in as a unit. Also, starting on a long road trip can't be helpful. It is what it is, so the guys have to suck it up and start to play winning ball. Don't want to see us in a big hole going into May.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Cora says he plans on getting back to Benintendi at leadoff and Betts second, once Pearce and Pedroia are back.

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

Pedroa is playing 9 innings in Greenville on the 4th, 5th, and 7th... then decision.

 

Laser show 4/9/19.