A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[kenmeister]

It feels like none of these starters had adequate spring training. Hopefully by the end of the month they will all have regained their proper form.

[dgalehouse]

It feels like none of these starters had adequate spring training. Hopefully by the end of the month they will all have regained their proper form.

 

Ken , Cora was wise to take it easy on the boys in spring training. It was a long season last year . Four months off is simply not enough rest for young athletes these days .

[oldtimer]

Our rotation, so far...

 

IP ER H+BB

3.0 7 8 Sale

5.0 6 10 Eovaldi

4.1 5 11 ERod

2.2 4 10 Porcello (+5 uneasrned runs thanks to JD

 

Total:

15 IP

22 ER

39 H+BB

 

13.20 ERA

 

2.60 WHIP

 

Lovely, isn't it?

 

 

 

 

 

Hard to believe they could be that bad. Not all of them. Just crazy bad numbers for a season start, and yet our BP was pretty good. So its something to do with the preparation with our starters. If Price sucks, we will at least show consistency.

[moonslav59]

Hard to believe they could be that bad. Not all of them. Just crazy bad numbers for a season start, and yet our BP was pretty good. So its something to do with the preparation with our starters. If Price sucks, we will at least show consistency.

 

It looks like the lack of preparation probably had something to do with the bad starts by all of our rotation, so far, but it's hard to know for sure.

 

Here's a comp between 2018 and 2019...

 

ST'ing IP

 

2018 & 2019

16.0> 12.0 Porcello

14.2> 9.0 Sale

12.0> 6.2 Price

INJ > 15.0 ERod

16.2(TBR)> 7.0 Eovaldi

[notin]

Hard to believe they could be that bad. Not all of them. Just crazy bad numbers for a season start, and yet our BP was pretty good. So its something to do with the preparation with our starters. If Price sucks, we will at least show consistency.

 

The Red Sox took the spring training games off. The Mariners started their season 10 days ago. In retrospect, are we really shocked?

[iortiz]

It looks like the lack of preparation probably had something to do with the bad starts by all of our rotation, so far, but it's hard to know for sure.

 

Here's a comp between 2018 and 2019...

 

ST'ing IP

 

2018 & 2019

16.0> 12.0 Porcello

14.2> 9.0 Sale

12.0> 6.2 Price

INJ > 15.0 ERod

16.2(TBR)> 7.0 Eovaldi

It’s not coincidence Moon. Everyone is pitching trash. It’s not coincidence. Lack of preparation is the reason. They gave more innings to the BP in ST. They had to. In the end it is on paper the weakest part of the team.

Edited April 1, 2019 by iortiz

[moonslav59]

It’s not coincidence Moon. Everyone is pitching trash. It’s not coincidence. Lack of preparation is the reason. They gave more innings to the BP in SR. They had to. In the end it is on paper the weakest part of the team.

 

I said "probably," but let's see how their next starts go. One could surmise they should be where they were last year after ST'ing and begin to dominate.

 

I hope the payoff in late season was worth it.

[moonslav59]

Assuming we do extend Bogey at $20M x 6.

 

Here's what 2020's budget looks like:

 

in $ Millions

 

31 Price

26 Sale

22 JDM

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

6 Vaz____

135M under contract

 

Arb estimates

~ $ millions

28 Betts

11 JBJ

7 ERod

4 Barnes

4 Beni

2 Hembree

2 Wright

2 Workman

2 Swihart___

62 Total Arb costs

 

$197 TOTAL (16 players)

$16 (24 players- pre-arb & minors)

$15M Benefits

 

$228M TOTAL

(No Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale is $29 mil

[moonslav59]

Sale is $29 mil

 

cots has it wrong.

 

Yes, add $3M.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yet Vaz is only 4, so only add $1 mil. I think the arb numbers are light. I’d say somewhere along the $5 mil mark light in total ($1 mil for Beni, $2 mil for ERod, $1 mil for Bradley, $1 mil for Barnes). So take that $228 mil and raise it to $234 mil. 2020 Lux tax is $208 mil. So top limit is $248 mil and that leaves you $14 mil to the line.

 

I am also convinced that JD is going to either opt out or get extended. I doubt he beats the AAV, though. JD’s contract the last 2 seasons was more than $22 mil, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed a 4 year $80 mil-ish contract this offseason that might actually drop his AAV strangely enough

[Nick]

I did read an article where DD was quoted something to the effect we hope he doesn't opt out after this year, talking about JD.

 

I think JD will give Sox a chance to sign him even if he does opt out.

[Bellhorn04]

cots has it wrong.

 

Yes, add $3M.

 

Sale is $29 mil

 

No, cot's is right. Alex Speier explained that because of deferred money Sale's AAV is 25.8 million. Sale did this to give the team a little extra payroll flexibility.

[Bellhorn04]

Yet Vaz is only 4, so only add $1 mil. I think the arb numbers are light. I’d say somewhere along the $5 mil mark light in total ($1 mil for Beni, $2 mil for ERod, $1 mil for Bradley, $1 mil for Barnes). So take that $228 mil and raise it to $234 mil. 2020 Lux tax is $208 mil. So top limit is $248 mil and that leaves you $14 mil to the line.

 

I am also convinced that JD is going to either opt out or get extended. I doubt he beats the AAV, though. JD’s contract the last 2 seasons was more than $22 mil, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed a 4 year $80 mil-ish contract this offseason that might actually drop his AAV strangely enough

 

I did read an article where DD was quoted something to the effect we hope he doesn't opt out after this year, talking about JD.

 

I think JD will give Sox a chance to sign him even if he does opt out.

 

JDM will be back in a Sox uniform next year, you can book it.

[Bellhorn04]

No reset, Henry would rather have good teams and pay the tax. He's the greatest owner ever, and very shrewd as well. What the hell does a little tax matter when you're winning titles and the market value of your team keeps going up?

[notin]

No reset, Henry would rather have good teams and pay the tax. He's the greatest owner ever, and very shrewd as well. What the hell does a little tax matter when you're winning titles and the market value of your team keeps going up?

 

 

It does make very little sense to put a worse team on the field to avoid paying $12mill in taxes when you’re paying more than that to Rusney Castillo to star in Pawtucket...

[mvp 78]

JDM will be back in a Sox uniform next year, you can book it.

 

I'm not sure he'd get higher AAV on the open market. More likely he just stays here and gets extra years. They have a bigger need for him than most other franchises.

[Slasher9]

No reset, Henry would rather have good teams and pay the tax. He's the greatest owner ever, and very shrewd as well. What the hell does a little tax matter when you're winning titles and the market value of your team keeps going up?

 

i am believing this now. but it was fair to think he was going to reset. after all, he did reset a few years ago.

[mvp 78]

i am believing this now. but it was fair to think he was going to reset. after all, he did reset a few years ago.

 

I think he sees that he has too many guys in their prime to reset now. I think he'll reset eventually, but not for another 4-5 years.

[moonslav59]

No, cot's is right. Alex Speier explained that because of deferred money Sale's AAV is 25.8 million. Sale did this to give the team a little extra payroll flexibility.

 

So, it's...

 

$millions

31 Price

26 Sale

22 JDM

20 Bogey

17 Eovaldi

14 Pedey

4 Vaz____

133 under contract

 

Arb estimates

~ $ millions

28 Betts

12 JBJ

8 ERod

5 Barnes

5 Beni

2 Hembree

2 Wright

2 Workman

2 Swihart___

66 Total Arb costs

 

$199 TOTAL (16 players)

$16 (24 players- pre-arb & minors)

$15M Benefits

 

$230M TOTAL

(No Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt, Thornburg)

 

No reset after this year, unless we trade serious salary.

 

2020's luxury tax line will be $208M.

 

$228M line will be crossed

 

$248M line can be avoided by spending under about $18M. If this is the goal, we can keep Holt and sign a decent pitcher or two. The rest will have to be filled by Chavis/Dalbec, DHernandez & Lakins/Feltman/Poyner

 

 

 

[Slasher9]

I think he sees that he has too many guys in their prime to reset now. I think he'll reset eventually, but not for another 4-5 years.

 

sure looks like it. i wonder if the owners have the threshold in mind for the new CBA and JH knows that even with these extensions they will be under the tax once the new CBA is agreed upon?

[mvp 78]

sure looks like it. i wonder if the owners have the threshold in mind for the new CBA and JH knows that even with these extensions they will be under the tax once the new CBA is agreed upon?

 

I have no idea about the CBA stuff but I have definitely wondered the same exact thing. Interesting that the new contract will be negotiated in 2020, which just so happened to coincide with the "cliff."

[moonslav59]

No reset, Henry would rather have good teams and pay the tax. He's the greatest owner ever, and very shrewd as well. What the hell does a little tax matter when you're winning titles and the market value of your team keeps going up?

 

I hope you are right, and although Henry is not the micro-manager and general a-hole Steinbrenner was, I hope we are not viewed like the Yankees were for decades.

 

There will be no "cliff," if we don't reset. I've always thought we would reset at some point, but it's looking like we won't.

[mvp 78]

I hope you are right, and although Henry is not the micro-manager and general a-hole Steinbrenner was, I hope we are not viewed like the Yankees were for decades.

 

There will be no "cliff," if we don't reset. I've always thought we would reset at some point, but it's looking like we won't.

 

Who gives a s*** how they were viewed? They had a pretty great run in the 90's - 00's. What fan base would say no to that?

 

I'll be the evil empire every day if it means that many titles.

 

s***, most other fans hate Boston anyway.

[Nick]

Sale to defer undisclosed amount of salaries, reducing average annual value to $25.6M

 

Per Cot's. Thus his delta is $10.6M which I this is very reasonable.

 

Xander's delta appears to be $8M.

 

To think both salaries are covered by Pablo's is pretty good deal for the Sox.

[jacksonianmarch]

I hope you are right, and although Henry is not the micro-manager and general a-hole Steinbrenner was, I hope we are not viewed like the Yankees were for decades.

 

There will be no "cliff," if we don't reset. I've always thought we would reset at some point, but it's looking like we won't.

 

There absolutely be a cliff. There are windows and cliffs (or resets) for every team. For small market teams, it is when stars get pricey. Their windows are limited by the cheap control over their players. For large market clubs, their windows are limited by massive contracts for declining players or massive contracts that don't allow building of depth. If the sox re-sign Betts and keep JDM at the same AAV, the sox will have $168 mil tied up in 7 players for 2021. When you factor in arb costs for Beni, Devers, ERod, and Barnes, you are looking at a significant chunk of change. Beni will be in year 2 of arb, Devers year 1, and Barnes and Erod in their final years. Those 4 alone are likely to take you from $168 mil to the lux tax limit of $210 mil. That will leave you $25 mil to fill out the rest of your team (minus medicals). The positions from now that would be open would be 1B, CF, 2B/UTIL (I don't think Pedroia can be counted on to ever play full time again), SP3, and nearly the entire pen beyond Brasier and Barnes. Outside of those guys mentioned above, the sox would need to cover 14 spots on the 25 man. If you consider that Price or Sale are not at the top of their game come that time (possible), then you will need more production from a suddenly thin rotation. This is how you crumble. You have major needs without guys ready to step in. DD has pushed the cliff past 2020. I expect 2020 to be a playoff type year for the sox as 2019. But 2021, the final year of the CBA, will be when you start to drop off

Edited April 1, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[BillyWilliams]

I hope you are right, and although Henry is not the micro-manager and general a-hole Steinbrenner was, I hope we are not viewed like the Yankees were for decades.

 

There will be no "cliff," if we don't reset. I've always thought we would reset at some point, but it's looking like we won't.

 

So it should be viewed differently when the sawx "buy" championships??

[moonslav59]

Who gives a s*** how they were viewed? They had a pretty great run in the 90's - 00's. What fan base would say no to that?

 

I'll be the evil empire every day if it means that many titles.

 

s***, most other fans hate Boston anyway.

 

I care. I feel like I'd be a hypocrite, if I didn't.

[Nick]

So it should be viewed differently when the sawx "buy" championships??

 

Xander is homegrown talent and we gave up some younger talent for Sale in a trade. They are both getting a raise. Not quite similar to DD signing say Price in an open market.

 

You build teams in 3 different ways.

 

1) Homegrown talent....you should know, Yankees have done it in recent years. (Xander, Betts, JBJ, Dustin, Beni, Devers, etc)

 

2) Trade....basically two teams trading players a) surplus of talent at one position or switching out major league ready talent for talent further out in the minors. (Sale, E Rod, Porcello, Eovaldi, Pearce)

 

3) Free agents (Price, JD)

 

I think DD has used all three modes to enhance the roster. Perception was Yankees used method 3) when the old man was running the team.

 

I think I saw an article in Fangraph detailing the composition each roster.

Edited April 1, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There absolutely be a cliff. There are windows and cliffs (or resets) for every team. For small market teams, it is when stars get pricey. Their windows are limited by the cheap control over their players. For large market clubs, their windows are limited by massive contracts for declining players or massive contracts that don't allow building of depth. If the sox re-sign Betts and keep JDM at the same AAV, the sox will have $168 mil tied up in 7 players for 2021. When you factor in arb costs for Beni, Devers, ERod, and Barnes, you are looking at a significant chunk of change. Beni will be in year 2 of arb, Devers year 1, and Barnes and Erod in their final years. Those 4 alone are likely to take you from $168 mil to the lux tax limit of $210 mil. That will leave you $25 mil to fill out the rest of your team (minus medicals). The positions from now that would be open would be 1B, CF, 2B/UTIL (I don't think Pedroia can be counted on to ever play full time again), SP3, and nearly the entire pen beyond Brasier and Barnes. Outside of those guys mentioned above, the sox would need to cover 14 spots on the 25 man. If you consider that Price or Sale are not at the top of their game come that time (possible), then you will need more production from a suddenly thin rotation. This is how you crumble. You have major needs without guys ready to step in. DD has pushed the cliff past 2020. I expect 2020 to be a playoff type year for the sox as 2019. But 2021, the final year of the CBA, will be when you start to drop off

 

If we stay just $1M under the max line every year, we can avoid a "cliff."

 

I still don't think that is the plan, but with all these extensions and talk of more extensions, I'm not so sure.