A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

Holt hasn't been all that productive since 2015. He's constantly injured and doesn't have the upside of Nunez or Pearce. It's an easy call for me. I also think you could sneak him through waivers and get him to AAA.

 

2015?

 

His best season was just last year (.774 OPS in 367 PAs). He was .727 in 2015 in 454 PAs. He's .701 career and is almost identical vs LHPs and RHPs. He can play 1B and better OF than Nunez and his gimpy knee.

 

Nunez has a .701 OPS with the Sox and has gotten worse. His knee is toast.

 

Yes, Pearce has higher upside, offensively, but I'm not so sure Nunez does.

[mvp 78]

2015?

 

His best season was just last year (.774 OPS in 367 PAs). He was .727 in 2015 in 454 PAs.

 

He had over 2 fWAR in 14 and 15. He was only at 1.4 last year.

 

He's also one of the slowest guys on the team. In a game winning situation, I'd pinch run Sam Travis for Holt. I'd like my utility guy be able to run. Nunez on his "gimpy knee" is still the second fastest guy on the team.

[Bellhorn04]

I have so little faith in Brewer and Thornburg that I'd probably keep Weber on the big club for a few more shots at showing he's better.

 

Brewer has options so he's quite easy to deal with.

[moonslav59]

Brewer has options so he's quite easy to deal with.

 

Yes, as of right now, I'd send Brewer down over Weber.

 

As much as I dislike Thornburg's chances at redemption, I don't think I'd DFA him to keep Weber on the 25. I would to keep Holt, Nunez, Pierce or Pedey

[mvp 78]

Holt is being sacrificed at the altar of Pedroia. We'll see if it'll work for this year.

[Bellhorn04]

Holt is being sacrificed at the altar of Pedroia.

 

How so?

[moonslav59]

How so?

 

We likely will not keep Chavis, Pedey, Holt & Nunez on the 25 man roster. Only Chavis has options, but he's not being demoted.

 

Pedey will not be DFA'd or traded.

 

It will be Nunez vs Holt, unless e dump Pearce to keep all 4.

 

Holt may be the one "sacrificed" to keep Pedey.

 

As of right now, I'd make it Nunez vs Pearce with Pearce being the one.

 

Chavis and Holt can play 1B.

[mvp 78]

How so?

 

Sox will need to pick between the two of them IMO. I think they go with Pedroia as they don't want to the potential public backlash (even though I think Holt does much more for the community and is a good "clubhouse guy"). Worst case scenario is they DFA Holt to keep Pedroia on the roster, another team claims Holt and Pedroia's injury is so severe that he has to hit the IL for good.

 

Personally, I'd just nudge Pedroia out the door as I don't believe he has any value left.

[vegasbob]

Here is the most important stat : Last year on this date , the Sox were in first place with a record of 31 - 15. Today we are in third place with a record of 23 - 22 . Furthermore, we are 3 -6 against the Yankees , Astros and Rays , arguably the only good teams we have played . What is the difference this year and what can be done to change things . ( The good news is that there are so many crappy teams in the league that reaching the post season is still a good bet . )

 

To get a perspective on how the Red Sox are still very much in contention , last year's WS opponent , the Dodgers, on May 17, 2018 had a record of 16-26 (.380) , 8 games back in the NL West. They won 9 of their next 11, then eventually took the division in Game #163 edging out the Rockies. The 2018 Sox steamrollered them in the WS despite Max Muncy's HR .

 

So now that we have started a new winning streak of 1 , it is possible to run off a 10-1 streak. The bench still is a weak aspect of this team ( Pearce, Nunez and Leon (?)) with the coming reinforcements of Pedey and Holt no real solutions yet. Why Brian Johnson is considered a step up over Velazquez is a mystery , neither brings much as a 5th starter . The bullpen still has questions (Thornburg, Brewer, what happened to Brasier?) but has performed well enough to not be the prime issue right now.

[moonslav59]

To get a perspective on how the Red Sox are still very much in contention , last year's WS opponent , the Dodgers, on May 17, 2018 had a record of 16-26 (.380) , 8 games back in the NL West. They won 9 of their next 11, then eventually took the division in Game #163 edging out the Rockies. The 2018 Sox steamrollered them in the WS despite Max Muncy's HR .

 

So now that we have started a new winning streak of 1 , it is possible to run off a 10-1 streak. The bench still is a weak aspect of this team ( Pearce, Nunez and Leon (?)) with the coming reinforcements of Pedey and Holt no real solutions yet. Why Brian Johnson is considered a step up over Velazquez is a mystery , neither brings much as a 5th starter . The bullpen still has questions (Thornburg, Brewer, what happened to Brasier?) but has performed well enough to not be the prime issue right now.

 

Well, one could consider Chavis part of the bench, and he has helped enormously.

 

True, he's a starter now, but I still count him as a bench guy who won the job by playing well.

 

Nunez and pearce have been putrid.

 

Leon is actually doing very well. Even his hitting has been 100 points higher than last year.

[notin]

We likely will not keep Chavis, Pedey, Holt & Nunez on the 25 man roster. Only Chavis has options, but he's not being demoted.

 

Pedey will not be DFA'd or traded.

 

It will be Nunez vs Holt, unless e dump Pearce to keep all 4.

 

Holt may be the one "sacrificed" to keep Pedey.

 

As of right now, I'd make it Nunez vs Pearce with Pearce being the one.

 

Chavis and Holt can play 1B.

 

 

Are you sure Holt has no options?

[mvp 78]

Leon is not a weak spot.

[mvp 78]

Are you sure Holt has no options?

 

Options Remaining: 1 (2013, 2014)

 

SoxProspects shows him having one. That's surprising.

[moonslav59]

Largest Swings in Positional Sox OPS from 2018 to 2019

 

+.272 Catcher

+.107 3B

 

-.017 SS

-.018 LF

 

-.053 2B

-.082 1B

 

-.179 RF

 

-.217 DH

-.286 CF

[moonslav59]

Options Remaining: 1 (2013, 2014)

 

SoxProspects shows him having one. That's surprising.

 

Yes, I thought he was out of them.

 

I guess that would solve the issue, if true.

[illinoisredsox]

Yes, I thought he was out of them.

 

I guess that would solve the issue, if true.

 

Holt does have one option left. He also has just over 5 years service time, which means he can’t be sent down without his consent.

[vegasbob]

Holt does have one option left. He also has just over 5 years service time, which means he can’t be sent down without his consent.

 

I can picture Brock, upon his return from IL, issuing a play me or trade me demand in lieu of assignment, about 10 minutes before he slips and falls injuring himself in the shower

[harmony]

On April 17 Kimmi asked that I come back in a month when I posted the postseason odds for the Red Sox. I can't seem to track down those posts, but ...

 

The Red Sox postseason chances have gone from 50.7 percent on April 17 to 76.7 percent today at FanGraphs and from 50 percent on April 15 to 65 percent today at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-05-20&dateDelta=

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The preseason Red Sox numbers were 90.3 percent at FanGraphs and 76 percent at FiveThirtyEight.

[dgalehouse]

On April 17 Kimmi asked that I come back in a month when I posted the postseason odds for the Red Sox. I can't seem to track down those posts, but ...

 

The Red Sox postseason chances have gone from 50.7 percent on April 17 to 76.7 percent today at FanGraphs and from 50 percent on April 15 to 65 percent today at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-05-20&dateDelta=

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The preseason Red Sox numbers were 90.3 percent at FanGraphs and 76 percent at FiveThirtyEight.

I don't really understand those odds . There are five post season spots , and only six A.L. teams with any chance of getting there . It's all about who will be the one who doesn't make it .

[S5Dewey]

On April 17 Kimmi asked that I come back in a month when I posted the postseason odds for the Red Sox. I can't seem to track down those posts, but ...

 

The Red Sox postseason chances have gone from 50.7 percent on April 17 to 76.7 percent today at FanGraphs and from 50 percent on April 15 to 65 percent today at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-05-20&dateDelta=

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The preseason Red Sox numbers were 90.3 percent at FanGraphs and 76 percent at FiveThirtyEight[/i].

 

So according to FiveThirtyEight the Sox have essentially gone back to where they were at the start of the season. Not bad, considering the poor start they had. The Mariner's have improved over the past 5 days from 2.6% to 6% now though. Things are looking up for Mariners fans!

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, in the discussion of old school versus analytics, I highly recommend The Only Rule Is It Has To Work: Our Wild Experiment Building a New Kind of Baseball Team by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, the former editor in chief and current editor in chief at Baseball Prospectus.

 

The stat geeks were given nearly full rein to make personnel and strategy decisions for the Sonoma team one year in an independent California league. The read is quite entertaining on top of being informative.

 

Thanks for the recommendation. I've been a big Lindbergh fan since he was a practically a baby. LOL Did you know he is only like 30 years old? And he's been around a while.

But I digress.

 

Knowing that I probably won't get around to reading the book any time soon, though it sounds like something I'd really enjoy reading, I read a little about the book and read some informative comments from Miller.

 

Two points that stuck out to me in my very brief reading:

 

1. Though they are stat geeks, the two personally did a lot of scouting, including scouting the upcoming opposing pitcher and charting every pitch he threw in great detail. Point being, stat geeks are not just about the stats.

 

2. They both stated in one way or another that where they failed was in not getting the players and the manager to buy into what they were doing. It became a sort of an 'us versus the stat geeks' mentality, and the players presumably 'rebelled', even when a decision was based more on a non-analytical reason. The guys realized the error of their approach after it was too late.

 

The 2nd point stands out to me because one of the first things Cora did when he came to Boston was hire a guy to do just that - relay the data to the players in such a way that they would buy into it.

 

Anyway, good stuff.

[Kimmi]

Did you read the depressing article in The New Yorker, reviewing studies on the relation of evidence to one's opinions? The studies all set up experiments where the subjects were asked to form an opinion (or choose between alternatives) of some artificial problem. They were then told OOPS, that was a mistake: here's what the situation really is. Or perhaps they were presented then with hard evidence that went against their initial opinions. What the researchers found consistently was that when subjects were presented with evidence that absolutely contradicted their initial choice or opinions, far from modifying those views, they became even MORE ADAMANT about them.

 

I have not read the article, but I find this quite interesting. I have experienced phenomenon in everyday life.

[Kimmi]

That is called The Backfire Effect. The more you disprove someone’s belief, the stronger their belief becomes...

 

You learn something new everyday.

[Kimmi]

Sox will need to pick between the two of them IMO. I think they go with Pedroia as they don't want to the potential public backlash (even though I think Holt does much more for the community and is a good "clubhouse guy"). Worst case scenario is they DFA Holt to keep Pedroia on the roster, another team claims Holt and Pedroia's injury is so severe that he has to hit the IL for good.

 

Personally, I'd just nudge Pedroia out the door as I don't believe he has any value left.

 

Fair or not, I have a feeling that Nunez will be the odd man out.

[harmony]

So according to FiveThirtyEight the Sox have essentially gone back to where they were at the start of the season. Not bad, considering the poor start they had. The Mariner's have improved over the past 5 days from 2.6% to 6% now though. Things are looking up for Mariners fans!

The Red Sox may well contend again but the Sox have played only 14 of 47 games against teams that qualified for the 2018 postseason (and half of those 14 games have come against an Oakland club that had stumbled out of the gate this year).

 

The Red Sox are a difficult team to forecast.

[harmony]

I have not read the article, but I find this quite interesting. I have experienced phenomenon in everyday life.

The New Yorker article was referenced in the book I recommended: The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, by Ben Lindbergh and Ben Miller.

[Kimmi]

On April 17 Kimmi asked that I come back in a month when I posted the postseason odds for the Red Sox. I can't seem to track down those posts, but ...

 

The Red Sox postseason chances have gone from 50.7 percent on April 17 to 76.7 percent today at FanGraphs and from 50 percent on April 15 to 65 percent today at FiveThirtyEight:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2019-05-20&dateDelta=

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

 

The preseason Red Sox numbers were 90.3 percent at FanGraphs and 76 percent at FiveThirtyEight.

 

No need to pull up the old posts. I remember very clearly asking you to come back in a month. Thanks for remembering to do so!

 

Things are looking much better for the Good Guys than they were a month ago.

 

I have the utmost confidence that the Red Sox will be playing postseason baseball.

[Kimmi]

The New Yorker article was referenced in the book I recommended: The Only Rule Is It Has to Work, by Ben Lindbergh and Ben Miller.

 

It makes sense that it would be. This was point #2 that struck me from Miller's comments.

[fxkatt]

I don't really understand those odds . There are five post season spots , and only six A.L. teams with any chance of getting there . It's all about who will be the one who doesn't make it .

 

That's exactly my read. At least fangraph has the odds at 77%, but fivethirtyeight at 65% seems outright dumb. As far as I'm concerned 3 of the 5 teams are already in with only the other two slots up for some competition. Boston, NY, and Houston are in. Cleveland, Minny, TB... maybe Oakland can compete. I just don't see any other team in the running. Unless the Sox are hit by injuries and refuse to spend another cent on their roster...I say 97% chance.

Edited May 21, 2019 by fxkatt

[notin]

That's exactly my read. At least fangraph has the odds at 77%, but fivethirtyeight at 65% seems outright dumb. As far as I'm concerned 3 of the 5 teams are already in with only the other two slots up for some competition. Boston, NY, and Houston are in. Cleveland, Minny, TB... maybe Oakland can compete. I just don't see any other team in the running. Unless the Sox are hit by injuries and refuse to spend another cent on their roster...I say 97% chance.

 

 

But what were the odds for Oakland last year or Minnesota the year before?

 

Sometimes there is just that super long shot that makes it in and bumps out one of the favorites...