A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

Here's where I'm getting at.

 

As recently as when the Sox were getting ready to sign Adrian Gonzalez, I was a firm believer in line up protection. I remember making posts (on another site) about how much better Gonzalez could be in the Sox line up with all the protection he'd have around him, as opposed to the weak San Diego line up he was coming from.

 

Then I read about how line up protection was largely a myth, with the statistical analysis to back up that claim. I changed my opinion on something I firmly believed in.

 

Once upon a time, I also firmly believed in clutch, momentum, speedy base runner on first hurting the defense, etc. etc. etc. I have changed my opinion on all of those things based on analytics.

 

Stunning. Really.

[Maxbialystock]

Current WAR ratings--

 

Betts 2.0

Bogie 1.8

Devers 1.4

JDM 1.2

Chavis 1.0 (22 games vs. 41-43 games by the top four OPS's.)

Vazquez .9

Beni .9

Moreland .8

Leon .2

 

Nunez -.6

Pearce -.6

JBJ -1.1

 

Nunez, Pearce, and JBJ would seem to be liabilities, but I don't think they are. I would continue to start JBJ, at least against righties. Nunez has stolen 4/5 bases and has the occasional hit. Pearce is telegraphing his swings, so the pitchers know exactly what to throw by him. Once the coaches fix that, he'll be fine.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Except that he caught that ball about 3 full steps before he leapt in to the stands. If you’re going to make a catch and run that far before you jump into the stands, I assume it’s because you just caught a touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers....

 

Some players make easy plays look hard (Jeter), while some make hard plays look easy (JBJ)

[Nick]

Current WAR ratings--

 

Betts 2.0

Bogie 1.8

Devers 1.4

JDM 1.2

Chavis 1.0 (22 games vs. 41-43 games by the top four OPS's.)

Vazquez .9

Beni .9

Moreland .8

Leon .2

 

Nunez -.6

Pearce -.6

JBJ -1.1

 

Nunez, Pearce, and JBJ would seem to be liabilities, but I don't think they are. I would continue to start JBJ, at least against righties. Nunez has stolen 4/5 bases and has the occasional hit. Pearce is telegraphing his swings, so the pitchers know exactly what to throw by him. Once the coaches fix that, he'll be fine.

 

I thought we had bunch of analytical nerds of this board. Numbers don't lie do they?

 

Chavis wasn't ready. He's a terrible 2B. Looks to me like he's doing fine. Right up there with JDM.

 

Good for Vaz. He's right up there with Beni and Moreland. But he's not worthy of catching great Porcello. Got it. Do we even play tonight? No doubt Porcello won't last 3 innings.

[moonslav59]

AL Team WAR Leaders by Position

 

Catcher

2.6 MN

1.8 SEA

1.4 CWS

1.2 HOU

1.2 BOS

 

1B

1.5 TX & TB

1.1 SEA

0.6 MN & CLE

14th BOS at -0.6

 

2B

2.6 LAA

1.4 TBR

1.3 KCR

1.1 NYY

1.0 HOU

13th BOS at 0.1

 

3B

2.1 HOU

2.0 KCR

1.8 OAK

1.3 CWS

1.2 BOS

 

SS

2.1 MN

1.8 BOS

1.7 OAK

1.6 HOU & TX

 

LF

3.1 TX

2.3 HOU

2.0 KCR

1.3 NYY

1.2 TBR

1.0 BOS

 

CF

4.3 HOU

2.3 TX

2.2 LAA

1.8 MN

1.3 CWS

14th BOS at -0.9

 

RF

3.6 HOU

2.6 TBR

2.2 NYY

2.0 KCR

1.3 SEA & BOS

 

DH

2.1 SEA

2.0 KCR

1.7 TX

1.1 TBR

0.8 BOS

 

All Positions

12.9 HOU

10.2 MN

7.5 TBR

6.8 LAA

6.2 BOS

5.8 KCR

5.7 TX

5.4 SEA

5.3 NYY

 

Pitching

8.0 TBR

6.8 NYY

6.6 CLE

6.4 HOU

5.7 MN

5.4 BOS

 

Last 30 Days (All three of these teams place 1, 2 & 3 in all categories)

5.7 BOS (SP 4.3/ RP 1.4)

3.9 TBR (SP 2.6/ RP 1.3)

3.9 NYY (SP 2.5/ RP 1.4)

 

Over the Full Season

SP: Sox place 6th at 3.6

RP: Sox place 6th at 1.8

 

Defense: Sox place 6th in UZR/150 at 3.4 and 8th in DRS at +3.

[Kimmi]

Yeah but he was good for at least one leaping throw across his body each season (except when he was an old man)

 

Sometimes a player makes a play look really tough, thereby giving the impression that he made a great play when he really didn't, when another player can make the same play look routine.

[Kimmi]

Stunning. Really.

 

Sadly, it seems as though most people like stats, as long as they don't contradict one's opinion.

 

If the stats do contradict one's opinion, then they are flawed or useless.

 

I'm wondering if it's possible that perhaps the stats could be right?

[Kimmi]

I thought we had bunch of analytical nerds of this board. Numbers don't lie do they?

 

Chavis wasn't ready. He's a terrible 2B. Looks to me like he's doing fine. Right up there with JDM.

 

Good for Vaz. He's right up there with Beni and Moreland. But he's not worthy of catching great Porcello. Got it. Do we even play tonight? No doubt Porcello won't last 3 innings.

 

Chavis has been holding his own at 2B so far. Good for him.

[oldtimer]

AL Team WAR Leaders by Position

 

Catcher

2.6 MN

1.8 SEA

1.4 CWS

1.2 HOU

1.2 BOS

 

1B

1.5 TX & TB

1.1 SEA

0.6 MN & CLE

14th BOS at -0.6

 

2B

2.6 LAA

1.4 TBR

1.3 KCR

1.1 NYY

1.0 HOU

13th BOS at 0.1

 

3B

2.1 HOU

2.0 KCR

1.8 OAK

1.3 CWS

1.2 BOS

 

SS

2.1 MN

1.8 BOS

1.7 OAK

1.6 HOU & TX

 

LF

3.1 TX

2.3 HOU

2.0 KCR

1.3 NYY

1.2 TBR

1.0 BOS

 

CF

4.3 HOU

2.3 TX

2.2 LAA

1.8 MN

1.3 CWS

14th BOS at -0.9

 

RF

3.6 HOU

2.6 TBR

2.2 NYY

2.0 KCR

1.3 SEA & BOS

 

DH

2.1 SEA

2.0 KCR

1.7 TX

1.1 TBR

0.8 BOS

 

All Positions

12.9 HOU

10.2 MN

7.5 TBR

6.8 LAA

6.2 BOS

5.8 KCR

5.7 TX

5.4 SEA

5.3 NYY

 

Pitching

8.0 TBR

6.8 NYY

6.6 CLE

6.4 HOU

5.7 MN

5.4 BOS

 

Last 30 Days (All three of these teams place 1, 2 & 3 in all categories)

5.7 BOS (SP 4.3/ RP 1.4)

3.9 TBR (SP 2.6/ RP 1.3)

3.9 NYY (SP 2.5/ RP 1.4)

 

Over the Full Season

SP: Sox place 6th at 3.6

RP: Sox place 6th at 1.8

 

Defense: Sox place 6th in UZR/150 at 3.4 and 8th in DRS at +3.

 

We do seem to get our daily surfeit of stats on this board. Be nice to see some conclusions from all of this.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes a player makes a play look really tough, thereby giving the impression that he made a great play when he really didn't, when another player can make the same play look routine.

 

I always felt Nomar made himself look a lot better than he really was by making those spinning twirling plays from the hole, when others simply planted and threw the guy out easily like it was routine.

[moonslav59]

Sadly, it seems as though most people like stats, as long as they don't contradict one's opinion.

 

If the stats do contradict one's opinion, then they are flawed or useless.

 

I'm wondering if it's possible that perhaps the stats could be right?

 

Usually they are, actually, almost always they are, but Matt Holliday was not a plus defender nor at about 0.0 for his career.

[Bellhorn04]

We do seem to get our daily surfeit of stats on this board. Be nice to see some conclusions from all of this.

 

23-20 is the main conclusion.

[vegasbob]

We do seem to get our daily surfeit of stats on this board. Be nice to see some conclusions from all of this.

 

And I thank those who take the time and effort to show us how the stats are trending and how the Red Sox results (not future) compare to other teams.

[Bellhorn04]

Sadly, it seems as though most people like stats, as long as they don't contradict one's opinion.

 

If the stats do contradict one's opinion, then they are flawed or useless.

 

I'm wondering if it's possible that perhaps the stats could be right?

 

Stats fall into different categories of course. From the simple, familiar 'stats' no one can argue about to some of the new and sophisticated 'analytics' or 'metrics' that a lot of people don't understand and are suspicious of.

[moonslav59]

And I thank those who take the time and effort to show us how the stats are trending and how the Red Sox results (not future) compare to other teams.

 

My pleasure.

 

It's no secret that CF, 2B and 1B are our low points at this snapshot of the season.

 

RF & DH seem lower than I expected, but it's nice to see 3B in the top 5 and not the bottom 5.

 

Our pitching staff is blowing the competition away the last 30 days.

 

Our defense looks worse than last year, despite Devers looking improved.

 

[Bellhorn04]

My pleasure.

 

It's no secret that CF, 2B and 1B are our low points at this snapshot of the season.

 

And yet our regular first baseman has an .893 OPS.

 

I assume it's Pearce dragging us into the depths there.

[Nick]

My pleasure.

 

It's no secret that CF, 2B and 1B are our low points at this snapshot of the season.

 

RF & DH seem lower than I expected, but it's nice to see 3B in the top 5 and not the bottom 5.

 

Our pitching staff is blowing the competition away the last 30 days.

 

Our defense looks worse than last year, despite Devers looking improved.

 

 

Houston outfield trio looks impressive.

[cp176]

Stunning. Really.

 

Exactly!

[jacksonianmarch]

I’d be wary of signing Porcello long term. Yes, he’s young, but he’s got a ton of miles on his arm. He’s got almost 400 more innings on his arm in the bigs than Sale. The guys who get big workloads early break down earlier too. See Felix, King

[Bellhorn04]

I’d be wary of signing Porcello long term. Yes, he’s young, but he’s got a ton of miles on his arm. He’s got almost 400 more innings on his arm in the bigs than Sale. The guys who get big workloads early break down earlier too. See Felix, King

 

Wrong thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

You are correct. I was responding to the other thread, lol

[Maxbialystock]

Here's a weird thought. Last year Cora kept three catchers even though Swihart wasn't allowed to start a game as a catcher until one of the other two went on the IL. At the first sign of trouble with the rotation this year, he was DFA'd and Leon, DFA's earlier but kept because no one else wanted him, was brought up--to almost universal applause on talksox. Leon has been good for the pitching staff.

 

But, lo and behold, Vazquez, perhaps because of his offseason work on his hitting, now has an OPS of .881, which is insanely good for a catcher. In fact--here comes the weird part--too good for a catcher.

 

That's right, Vazquez right now should start in at least 4 out of every 5 games if not 9 out of every 10 games, but he can't catch 4 of 5 or 9 of 10. Despite his earlier experience at 2B, the most logical slot for Vazquez in games he isn't catching is DH, which sends JDM to the outfield, keeps JBJ on the bench for those games, but also Nunez and Pearce, neither of whom is hitting well (and both have OPS more than 100 points below Leon).

 

The problem, of course, is that with just two catchers and one being used as the DH, the Sox really need that third catcher they had last year.

[Maxbialystock]

You are correct. I was responding to the other thread, lol

 

Actually, we have so few really active threads right now they are almost interchangeable.

[Bellhorn04]

Actually, we have so few really active threads right now they are almost interchangeable.

 

Very true. But I correctly discerned that Jacks meant to post that in the other thread.

[notin]

Here's a weird thought. Last year Cora kept three catchers even though Swihart wasn't allowed to start a game as a catcher until one of the other two went on the IL. At the first sign of trouble with the rotation this year, he was DFA'd and Leon, DFA's earlier but kept because no one else wanted him, was brought up--to almost universal applause on talksox. Leon has been good for the pitching staff.

 

But, lo and behold, Vazquez, perhaps because of his offseason work on his hitting, now has an OPS of .881, which is insanely good for a catcher. In fact--here comes the weird part--too good for a catcher.

 

That's right, Vazquez right now should start in at least 4 out of every 5 games if not 9 out of every 10 games, but he can't catch 4 of 5 or 9 of 10. Despite his earlier experience at 2B, the most logical slot for Vazquez in games he isn't catching is DH, which sends JDM to the outfield, keeps JBJ on the bench for those games, but also Nunez and Pearce, neither of whom is hitting well (and both have OPS more than 100 points below Leon).

 

The problem, of course, is that with just two catchers and one being used as the DH, the Sox really need that third catcher they had last year.

 

 

No.

 

The catching situation is NOT the problem. Having Swihart on the roster won’t give Cora better bullpen options so he doesn’t keep trying to squeeze 8 innings out of starters...

[devildavid]

Sadly, it seems as though most people like stats, as long as they don't contradict one's opinion.

 

If the stats do contradict one's opinion, then they are flawed or useless.

 

I'm wondering if it's possible that perhaps the stats could be right?

 

I think stats are very useful, as long as you understand how to use them. Stats are necessarily based on past performance. This means that stats have limited predictive ability. For example, people often say a player will regress to the mean. That may be true of certain types of statistics, but it is incorrectly applied to player performance. An injury affects performance which affects statistics. This mean the statistics should reflect the physical condition of the player. It is the physical performance driving the statistics, and that always needs to be taken into account when looking at the numbers. Players don't regress just because regression is a statistical concept.

 

Some stats, like OPS are just bad stats. You shouldn't add together averages that have nothing to do with each other and that are calculated differently. And one of those averages, SLG, is a very flawed stat by itself. It assigns a value to each hit based only on the number of bases touched on the hit. Is that really the true measure of power hitting? Batting average is scoffed at, but that isn't because it assigns value to hits. It has the simple job of calculating the average of how many at bats produce a hit. And if that is all it is used for, it does a pretty good job of that one aspect of the game.

 

It is really all the statistical shortcuts that are the weakness of stats. Sabermetrics came along to improve that. But on this forum I would say that sabermetrics aren't really used, and I include myself.

[notin]

I think stats are very useful, as long as you understand how to use them. Stats are necessarily based on past performance. This means that stats have limited predictive ability. For example, people often say a player will regress to the mean. That may be true of certain types of statistics, but it is incorrectly applied to player performance. An injury affects performance which affects statistics. This mean the statistics should reflect the physical condition of the player. It is the physical performance driving the statistics, and that always needs to be taken into account when looking at the numbers. Players don't regress just because regression is a statistical concept.

 

Some stats, like OPS are just bad stats. You shouldn't add together averages that have nothing to do with each other and that are calculated differently. And one of those averages, SLG, is a very flawed stat by itself. It assigns a value to each hit based only on the number of bases touched on the hit. Is that really the true measure of power hitting? Batting average is scoffed at, but that isn't because it assigns value to hits. It has the simple job of calculating the average of how many at bats produce a hit. And if that is all it is used for, it does a pretty good job of that one aspect of the game.

 

It is really all the statistical shortcuts that are the weakness of stats. Sabermetrics came along to improve that. But on this forum I would say that sabermetrics aren't really used, and I include myself.

 

 

Actually batting average measure the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in plate appearances where he doesn’t see four bad pitches, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily bunt runners over or manage to hit a deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than 2 out, unless that runner is slow.

 

It really doesn’t measure much and all it tells you is the overwhelmed majority of players in MLB get a hit between 20% and 30% of the time. And the ones who fall outside that range don’t fall outside by much.

 

I completely disagree on SLG. Yes it actually is a good measure for power. And OPS, while not perfect, has shown itself to be a much more comprehensive and reliable stat for offensive performance.

 

Batting average tells you nothing. It really tells you all hitters are basically equal. SLG and OS are where the hitters desperate...

[devildavid]

Actually batting average measure the percentage of time a batter gets a hit in plate appearances where he doesn’t see four bad pitches, get hit by a pitch, voluntarily bunt runners over or manage to hit a deep fly ball with a runner on third and less than 2 out, unless that runner is slow.

 

It really doesn’t measure much and all it tells you is the overwhelmed majority of players in MLB get a hit between 20% and 30% of the time. And the ones who fall outside that range don’t fall outside by much.

 

I completely disagree on SLG. Yes it actually is a good measure for power. And OPS, while not perfect, has shown itself to be a much more comprehensive and reliable stat for offensive performance.

 

Batting average tells you nothing. It really tells you all hitters are basically equal. SLG and OS are where the hitters desperate...

 

Batting average tells accurately what percentage you hit the ball safely in all your at bats which you hit the ball either for a hit or an out. That is what at bats are considered in baseball and everyone is aware of that fact. Hitting is so difficult that slight variations in average indicate wide variation in the ability to hit safely.

 

SLG is flawed and OPS more flawed. And it appears that not everyone is aware of that.

[Bellhorn04]

Batting average tells accurately what percentage you hit the ball safely in all your at bats which you hit the ball either for a hit or an out. That is what at bats are considered in baseball and everyone is aware of that fact. Hitting is so difficult that slight variations in average indicate wide variation in the ability to hit safely.

 

SLG is flawed and OPS more flawed. And it appears that not everyone is aware of that.

 

Like batting average, SLG is a very simple and transparent stat.

 

As another wise poster (sk7326) said, the problems with most stats are at the inference level.

[Maxbialystock]

No.

 

The catching situation is NOT the problem. Having Swihart on the roster won’t give Cora better bullpen options so he doesn’t keep trying to squeeze 8 innings out of starters...

 

You misunderstand. Three catchers isn’t about catching or the bullpen. It’s about getting Vazquez’s .881 OPS in the lineup more often by letting him DH sometimes.