A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

On paper, no. And you’re lucky that the AL really has 6 teams vying for 5 spots. And I’m not all that convinced the A’s can do it again. The WS hangover is a real thing. The Yanks right now are probably your toughest competitor, yet they’re down 11 players and hovering around that .500 mark. You should be surging and creating a big lead

 

The Rays are the ones capitalizing on the problems of the Red Sox & Yanks.

[S5Dewey]

Spring training Starts & IP'd

 

2018 2019

Price 3/12.0 2/6.2 (because he got the snot kicked out of him in 1st start)

Porcillo 4/16.0 3/12.0

ERod None 5/15.0

Sale 4/14.2 2/9.0

Evoldi 5/16.2 (with TB) 2/7.0

 

These are the stats but I'm still not sure that this reflects the amount of work they got before the start of the regular season. I've always thought that pitchers have their own ST regimen that doesn't show up in games.

 

I still have no explanation for what's going on but IMO one or two ST starts and the few innings involved shouldn't make a difference in a pitcher's readiness for the regular season.

 

EDIT: And I DO wish I knew how to format columns on this site. Ugh.

[Hitch]

Yet the team is largely unchanged from last season. What's different?

 

I think it's a combination of a couple of things.

 

The hangover from the WS. A lot of players played to their maximum last year, that likely won't be repeated for all of them. We deliberately set out to have a slow and easy Spring Training for a lot of the staff, the pitchers in particular, and while I definitely see the reasons for that, we didn't build up the momentum we had coming out of ST last year and kind of scuttled into opening day.

 

Last year you could see the belief. This year we seem unsure of ourselves. I'm sure it will right itself but we have issues, no question.

 

On paper, no. And you’re lucky that the AL really has 6 teams vying for 5 spots. And I’m not all that convinced the A’s can do it again. The WS hangover is a real thing. The Yanks right now are probably your toughest competitor, yet they’re down 11 players and hovering around that .500 mark. You should be surging and creating a big lead

 

And yet the Yanks have had by far the easier start and you've not pulled away from us despite the fact we can barely buy a win right now.

 

As bad as our start has been I'm pretty relieved that your lot have dropped so many games against the Orioles and Tigers. Injuries or not, you've blown a good opening opportunity to create a large early gap between us. Something you know only too well.

[jad]

Spring training Starts & IP'd

 

2018 2019

Price 3/12.0 2/6.2 (because he got the snot kicked out of him in 1st start)

Porcillo 4/16.0 3/12.0

ERod None 5/15.0

Sale 4/14.2 2/9.0

Evoldi 5/16.2 (with TB) 2/7.0

 

These are the stats but I'm still not sure that this reflects the amount of work they got before the start of the regular season. I've always thought that pitchers have their own ST regimen that doesn't show up in games.

 

I still have no explanation for what's going on but IMO one or two ST starts and the few innings involved shouldn't make a difference in a pitcher's readiness for the regular season.

 

EDIT: And I DO wish I knew how to format columns on this site. Ugh.

 

Exactly. It's grasping at straws; even what little relevance it has for their first starts, it doesn't explain the problems with their second or third starts.

[Slasher9]

well with todays off day after an L in our home opener i expect some very frustrated posts today.

i will say this....i am on record stating i will take a last place finish for a parade. maybe this season is my payment for 2018....

[SoxnCycles]

And yet the Yanks have had by far the easier start and you've not pulled away from us despite the fact we can barely buy a win right now.

 

As bad as our start has been I'm pretty relieved that your lot have dropped so many games against the Orioles and Tigers. Injuries or not, you've blown a good opening opportunity to create a large early gap between us. Something you know only too well.

 

Cue the injury excuse...

[mvp 78]

well with todays off day after an L in our home opener i expect some very frustrated posts today.

i will say this....i am on record stating i will take a last place finish for a parade. maybe this season is my payment for 2018....

 

Nah. I'll take a .500 season. Just don't completely ruin my summah!

[Maxbialystock]

well with todays off day after an L in our home opener i expect some very frustrated posts today.

i will say this....i am on record stating i will take a last place finish for a parade. maybe this season is my payment for 2018....

 

Ah, the "the Sox are playing with house money" argument. A good point, but most of the rest of us prefer to be spoiled with another run for the roses, especially when the core of last year's team is back and have the highest payroll in MLB.

 

Besides, we seem to enjoy griping even more that singing the Sox praises. We just don't seem to like basking in the sunshine of 2018.

[Maxbialystock]

Today I learned that two former CSA's are blaming this on the lengthy West Coast road trip.

[mvp 78]

Today I learned that two former CSA's are blaming this on the lengthy West Coast road trip.

 

What's a CSA?

[notin]

What's a CSA?

 

It can be the Canadian Standards Association, the official airline of the Czech Republic, or the Covenant, Sword and Arm of the Lord, which was a white supremacist organization from Arkansas.

 

But I think given the context, he is referring to the Czech airlines...

[mvp 78]

It can be the Canadian Standards Association, the official airline of the Czech Republic, or the Covenant, Sword and Arm of the Lord, which was a white supremacist organization from Arkansas.

 

But I think given the context, he is referring to the Czech airlines...

 

Completely Stupid *******s?

 

Coed Student Athletes?

 

Coopted Sexual Alabamans?

[Maxbialystock]

What's a CSA?

 

Committed Statistical Analyst. They both reviewed over 100 Sox seasons--then thousands of other MLB teams seasons-- and concluded 3-8 was actually the best the Sox could do under the circumstances of 11 games away from Fenway, right after ST, and near or west of the Rocky Mountains. They have recommended to John Henry that he file a claim against MLB schedulers for the loss of revenue that is almost certain to occur as a result.

Edited April 10, 2019 by Maxbialystock

[notin]

Committed Statistical Analyst

 

 

Doesn’t the fact that they were committed sort of undermine their analysis?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

 

JBJ is 0-7 on balls he's hit further than 315 feet so far. Pretty brutal, the unluckiest among all players on deep drives like that. Aguilar is 0-6, Arenado 1-11.

[vegasbob]

well with todays off day after an L in our home opener i expect some very frustrated posts today.

i will say this....i am on record stating i will take a last place finish for a parade. maybe this season is my payment for 2018....

 

I would also pay the price of a trade off, but don't think it will be necessary. The old reversion to the mean (barring injury) will kick in at some point. Look at it again at the end of May , when 2/3rds of the season +- remain.

There are certainly some position players/hitters who are asleep right now compared to their talent levels. These guys need to come around. The starting pitching is inexplicable but the bullpen hasn't imploded. Having said that Brewer gave up the winning run on 3 hits in the 9th in AZ, yesterday's performance in tough conditions was not good allowing runs following the Sox scores. Catching ? Who knows if it is a factor. Hopefully AC does.

[dgalehouse]

Losing your home opener against a weak opponent, with Chris Sale on the mound , is disturbing. But some fans tend to overreact to everything, be it good or bad . We have all heard a million times, " It's a marathon, not a sprint." But we always forget it .

[Maxbialystock]

Doesn’t the fact that they were committed sort of undermine their analysis?

 

Of course it does. How could anyone rationally use the West Coast trip as a viable explanation for horrible pitching?

[notin]

Losing your home opener against a weak opponent, with Chris Sale on the mound , is disturbing. But some fans tend to overreact to everything, be it good or bad . We have all heard a million times, " It's a marathon, not a sprint." But we always forget it .

 

 

That’s because we’ve all see Kenyans run a marathon at a pace that’s faster than our sprinting speed...

[Maxbialystock]

Losing your home opener against a weak opponent, with Chris Sale on the mound , is disturbing. But some fans tend to overreact to everything, be it good or bad . We have all heard a million times, " It's a marathon, not a sprint." But we always forget it .

 

Marathon is a terrible metaphor for baseball. Marathoners are merely joggers who endure and have none of the finely honed skills of a MLB player.

 

Baseball players actually do sprint and for the most part avoid jogging. And you better believe they live all the highs and lows of every single inning and game.

 

And it's the same for us fans. We should be up and down based on what happens each inning, game, week, month, and season. Any fan who goes through the season with the mentality of a marathoner is cheating himself. I mean, why even bother watching if your perspective is it's just one more of 162 games?

 

Better to quote Yogi (or someone): it ain't over 'til it's over.

[mvp 78]

Losing your home opener against a weak opponent, with Chris Sale on the mound , is disturbing. But some fans tend to overreact to everything, be it good or bad . We have all heard a million times, " It's a marathon, not a sprint." But we always forget it .

 

Let me know when they get to jogging speed.

[dgalehouse]

Marathon is a terrible metaphor for baseball. Marathoners are merely joggers who endure and have none of the finely honed skills of a MLB player.

 

Baseball players actually do sprint and for the most part avoid jogging. And you better believe they live all the highs and lows of every single inning and game.

 

And it's the same for us fans. We should be up and down based on what happens each inning, game, week, month, and season. Any fan who goes through the season with the mentality of a marathoner is cheating himself. I mean, why even bother watching if your perspective is it's just one more of 162 games?

 

Better to quote Yogi (or someone): it ain't over 'til it's over.

 

Maxie , you are being extremely truculent today . Even more so than usual . " Marathon " in this context, refers simply to the length of the season . Plenty of time to find your stride and catch up . The cream rises to the top sort of thing. We always get back to the small sample size thing . We all know what it means , but we still can't help getting excited about them . By the way , there is no such thing as playing with house money . Once you have won the money, it is yours . Be smart with it . Don't be so willing to give it back .

[Hitch]

Losing your home opener against a weak opponent, with Chris Sale on the mound , is disturbing. But some fans tend to overreact to everything, be it good or bad . We have all heard a million times, " It's a marathon, not a sprint." But we always forget it .

 

This obviously true, and you only have to look back at last season where people were losing their s*** in game threads when we were beating all in front of us. That said, there are issues with the team right now, on virtually every area. To be kind, there is a lack of focus, too.

 

It would be ridiculous to make any solid predictions for the rest of the season this early, but talking about the very obvious issues at play is fair game.

 

For what it's worth, I don't think we will be this bad for too much longer, a regression to the mean is due, but we will see.

[Slasher9]

Let me know when they get to jogging speed.

 

we have reached ludicrous speed!

[kenmeister]

Committed Statistical Analyst. They both reviewed over 100 Sox seasons--then thousands of other MLB teams seasons-- and concluded 3-8 was actually the best the Sox could do under the circumstances of 11 games away from Fenway, right after ST, and near or west of the Rocky Mountains. They have recommended to John Henry that he file a claim against MLB schedulers for the loss of revenue that is almost certain to occur as a result.

 

If they suddenly start playing better at home this might have some substance to it, but so far I see a team that has a huge World Series hangover.

[MADSTORK]

Call Sandy its the only hope!

[Slasher9]

Call Sandy its the only hope!

 

i'm not sure about "only" but for once one of your posts kind of makes sense. would you send down vaz or swi?

[mvp 78]

Call Sandy its the only hope!

 

I'm questioning all of my life decisions up to this point right now.

[Maxbialystock]

Maxie , you are being extremely truculent today . Even more so than usual . " Marathon " in this context, refers simply to the length of the season . Plenty of time to find your stride and catch up . The cream rises to the top sort of thing. We always get back to the small sample size thing . We all know what it means , but we still can't help getting excited about them . By the way , there is no such thing as playing with house money . Once you have won the money, it is yours . Be smart with it . Don't be so willing to give it back .

 

Too true. No way I can disagree with small sample size and especially the notion of players finding their stride, especially in MLB. We have seen that happen so many times. It is almost certainly going to happen to these Sox, just maybe not in time or in a way that gets them to the playoffs.

[notin]

Not sweating the slow start too much.

 

Five of last season’s 10 playoff teams are under .500, with the Sox and Rockies both at 3-9 and the 3-7 Cubs tied with them for fewest wins (among last seasons playoff teams).

 

The Red Sox and Cubs, however, have both played only one home game...