A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Maxbialystock]

Hey all, I've been quiet so far this season myself, and the slow start is agonizing, but I stick by what I said last week; I think it will take this team until mid-May to jell and then they'll take off like a rocket. So, no worries yet

 

We're kind of in May already. Last year's team didn't lose their 8th game until May 1. People forget that last year we needed that 17-2 run because the Yankees caught up to us in May.

 

You middle of May could be right because maybe it will take that long for the rotation to get their mojo back.

[harmony]

The 1998 New York Yankees, who won 114 games, started the season 1-4 before reeling off an eight-game winning streak as part of winning 22 of their next 24 games.

[Kimmi]

Hey all, I've been quiet so far this season myself, and the slow start is agonizing, but I stick by what I said last week; I think it will take this team until mid-May to jell and then they'll take off like a rocket. So, no worries yet

 

It is way too early to panic.

[Kimmi]

The 1998 New York Yankees, who won 114 games, started the season 1-4 before reeling off an eight-game winning streak as part of winning 22 of their next 24 games.

 

That's what I'm talking about.

[moonslav59]

Please keep in mind that much of what you've posted wasn't really in response to what cp176 was saying, it was a reaction to your frustration toward BW (and maybe the losses).

 

BW served his own purpose here. He trolled by insulting us and our team, and got us fighting among ourselves. In that regard he was a good troll. Now he's gone. Let's move on.

 

True.

 

I shouldn't have vented my frustration towards the poor Sox start and BW's continued misrepresentation of my views on cp.

 

I respect CP a lot, even when we disagree.

 

[moonslav59]

I think that you are likely right with this. I did reread the post that I made that I guess is the one that Moon responded to. Probably just me but I didn't see much in it to get riled up over. If ever I don't agree with you, I hope that you don't get the feeling that I think that you are trying to act in an intellectually superior way to me. That is just me being sarcastic - lol. Sadly i do get the feeling here that if you don't agree with certain people's points of view, they tend to get all sputtery and hit you with one million pieces of statistical garbage to attempt to prove their points of view. Thanks for trying to keep the peace.

 

The comment about me implying it is "all about Leon." was off base and untrue, and I over-reacted. I apologize.

 

I've gone out of my way to say this couldn't possibly be all about Leon of even mostly about Leon. My one sarcastic and mocking post towards Swihart's great offensive start was in poor taste, and I can see how that one post could be taken out of context.

 

Yes, at time I and others bombard posters with stats and data to try and support our position, but I think I try not to be condescending or act superior. I can see how it can be taken that way in the heat of a deep or spirited debate. Maybe I'm being overly sensitive, and BW probably had something to do with it, but when you say something like this...

 

Once again anyone who knows one goddam thing about baseball understands the importance of the catcher pitcher relationship. if you feel that Leon's presence made that much of a difference last year then great. I don't share your thoughts.

 

I get the impression that you think I am implying you don't know a goddamn thing about baseball, because you don't agree or don't "get my point." I know you understand my points, unlike BW, except for that post that said I have implied it's "all about Leon." I'm fine with others having different views, in fact I enjoy it. I know you know a lot about baseball and respect the importance of a great relationship between a catcher and his staff. We disagree on the magnitude of the aspect of the game, and I'm hopeful Swihart can quickly build a rapport withe the starters he has been assigned to catch.

 

I know I might give too much credence to the whole CERA-related skill set argument, and I feel like I have tried to not give full weight to the CERA numbers by projecting the wide differentials the past data has shown would not continue in full. I projected something like half of the differential going forward. In this tiny sample size of our first few games, it has been 3 to 4 times the past differential, and I have not jumped all over the numbers to call for the return of Leon or the demotion of Vaz or Swihart. Never once.

 

I'm not blaming Swihart or Vaz for anything. Maybe they made a half run difference, but that would not have changed our record by more than 1 game, at best, if any.

 

I'm going to continue to not respond to BW and his countless lies about my positions, like his recent false rants on sequencing, and I wish there was a way to put him on ignore, so his posts would not be visible to me.

 

Again, I'm sorry for jumping at you. You deserve better.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

Absolutely true - I don't mind it all when someone disagrees with an opinion of mine. You and i have had this discussion before. Almost everything that is posted here is opinion and conjecture. Having a strong opinion and expressing it does not in the slightest have anything to do with what someone else here thinks of anyone from an intelectual standpoint.

 

Well said, and I think that if we put, "in my opinion" before everything we say, maybe it would not be taken like we are saying "My opinion is the truth and yours isn't" type perception by the readers.

 

Of course, nobody wants to type that before every statement, and we assume others take our statements in the context of it being an opinion.

 

I understand that when someone throws data and stats back at someone, it gives a strong impression that you are trying to prove the other opinion is wrong, and it's easy to take that as a slight on ones intelligence or baseball acumen. The thing about stats is that, if you dig deep enough, you can probably find a stat that goes against the one presented, so they often "prove" nothing in a debate, unless it is a clear cut situation, like someone claims so and so has been in a slump, when in fact they have been hitting .400 in the last 4 games, .350 in the last 10 games and .340 in the last month. It's doubtful any counter data would be available.

 

Another thing that kind of bugs me is that stat geeks like myself are sometimes viewed as people who don't understand the human side of the game, or have never played the game. Like it has to be one side or the other with not gray area or in betweens.

 

I've played the game for many many years. I didn't make my college team, but I continued playing some pretty high level ball through college. I feel like I do understand the human and emotional side of the game. I've played on teams that weren't playing like a "team" and hated it. I've played on teams where we had each other's backs and were very supportive. I've played with some great players who were total selfish *******s and some that were great teammates. I've played high level football and basketball with and against players that went pro. I'm not Steve Urkel.

 

I realize other have played and/or coached at higher levels than I have, and I'm not the most knowledgeable poster on this site, especially about players on other teams, and I respect a lot of posters on this site, including many I disagree with often.

 

Sorry for rambling on, here, but I wanted to let you guys know where I'm coming from.

 

We all love the Sox, many in differing ways. I still have very high hopes for this team, and I am truly pulling for Swihart to do better than Leon ever did with us.

 

[devildavid]

I'm panicking. Last season was too perfect. This start is the polar opposite. But as only the Rays have started off strong in the East, my panic is tempered. The division could be a dogfight with no dominant team. Might not take another perfect season to win the division.

[d-money]

I'm panicking. Last season was too perfect. This start is the polar opposite. But as only the Rays have started off strong in the East, my panic is tempered. The division could be a dogfight with no dominant team. Might not take another perfect season to win the division.

 

They have 6 games to make up to get back to 500. They need to win games!

[moonslav59]

Just make the playoffs, preferably by winning the division.

 

Have our s*** together in October.

 

That is all.

[illinoisredsox]

 

 

I'm going to continue to not respond to BW and his countless lies about my positions, like his recent false rants on sequencing, and I wish there was a way to put him on ignore, so his posts would not be visible to me.

 

 

 

 

 

Moon, to put someone on ignore, just click on their poster name and then View Profile. On the left hand side you will see Add to Ignore List. Click on that and voila, their posts are no longer seen by you.

 

That being said, BW earned a banning last night, so until he comes back in some other iteration, there are no more issues with him.

[moonslav59]

Moon, to put someone on ignore, just click on their poster name and then View Profile. On the left hand side you will see Add to Ignore List. Click on that and voila, their posts are no longer seen by you.

 

That being said, BW earned a banning last night, so until he comes back in some other iteration, there are no more issues with him.

 

Thanks for the info on ignoring someone.

 

I try to avoid it, but sometimes, it just needs to be done.

[moonslav59]

One bright spot:

 

Workman, Brasier & Thornburg combined:

 

12 IP

 

5 H

 

3 BB

 

0.667 WHIP

 

2 ER

 

1.50 ERA

[Jasonbay44]

Who got the SAVE for the sox last night ?????

 

Its very odd that BillyWilliams was banned, logged in at 8 am, at 8:25 this account logs in and makes a post, around 8:50, both this account and BillyWilliams logged out at the same time.. Not suspicious at all.

[cp176]

Well said, and I think that if we put, "in my opinion" before everything we say, maybe it would not be taken like we are saying "My opinion is the truth and yours isn't" type perception by the readers.

 

Of course, nobody wants to type that before every statement, and we assume others take our statements in the context of it being an opinion.

 

I understand that when someone throws data and stats back at someone, it gives a strong impression that you are trying to prove the other opinion is wrong, and it's easy to take that as a slight on ones intelligence or baseball acumen. The thing about stats is that, if you dig deep enough, you can probably find a stat that goes against the one presented, so they often "prove" nothing in a debate, unless it is a clear cut situation, like someone claims so and so has been in a slump, when in fact they have been hitting .400 in the last 4 games, .350 in the last 10 games and .340 in the last month. It's doubtful any counter data would be available.

 

Another thing that kind of bugs me is that stat geeks like myself are sometimes viewed as people who don't understand the human side of the game, or have never played the game. Like it has to be one side or the other with not gray area or in betweens.

 

I've played the game for many many years. I didn't make my college team, but I continued playing some pretty high level ball through college. I feel like I do understand the human and emotional side of the game. I've played on teams that weren't playing like a "team" and hated it. I've played on teams where we had each other's backs and were very supportive. I've played with some great players who were total selfish *******s and some that were great teammates. I've played high level football and basketball with and against players that went pro. I'm not Steve Urkel.

 

I realize other have played and/or coached at higher levels than I have, and I'm not the most knowledgeable poster on this site, especially about players on other teams, and I respect a lot of posters on this site, including many I disagree with often.

 

Sorry for rambling on, here, but I wanted to let you guys know where I'm coming from.

 

We all love the Sox, many in differing ways. I still have very high hopes for this team, and I am truly pulling for Swihart to do better than Leon ever did with us.

 

 

 

Moon - it's all good here.

[S5Dewey]

Its very odd that BillyWilliams was banned, logged in at 8 am, at 8:25 this account logs in and makes a post, around 8:50, both this account and BillyWilliams logged out at the same time.. Not suspicious at all.

 

Please remember ^that^. Also please remember that a banned poster taking on a new name doesn't grant him the same benefit of doubt that an actual new poster would get.

[Slasher9]

Moon - it's all good here.

 

Your a good man CP. but I still hate the Pom trade!!!

[Nick]

5 innings from our 'bullpen'....0 runs given up.

[Bellhorn04]

5 innings from our 'bullpen'....0 runs given up.

 

One of the most questioned bullpens in history throws a bullpen game shutout.

 

You gotta love this game.

[moonslav59]

One of the most questioned bullpens in history throws a bullpen game shutout.

 

You gotta love this game.

 

Not only that, here are the small sample size 2019 numbers of our top 4 RP'ers:

 

IP -H -BB-ER

5.0 0 1 1 Workman

5.0 2 1 0 Brasier

2.0 0 0 0 Barnes

4.0 3 1 2 Thornburg

 

16 IP

8 H + BB

0.500 WHIL

 

2.25 ERA

[oldtimer]

5 innings from our 'bullpen'....0 runs given up.

 

Swihart caught the shutout.

 

Cora is pretty cool leaving Betts out of a game wee really needed to win. I know that is his style, but I would love to see the team gel with our top lineup in together for a few games. Five hits tonight and we needed great pitching to win this one.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports...

 

Longtime Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia should be available for the team’s home opener on Tuesday, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Assuming that all goes well in today’s game with Low-A Greenville, in which Pedroia will play all nine innings, he should be ready to be activated ahead of the reigning World Champions’ return to Fenway Park. He will be re-evaluated after Sunday’s game, but there is optimism that Boston will have its veteran second baseman back in the near future.

[Jasonbay44]

I'm not sure how good he'll be, but I am excited to see Pedroia at in MLB again.

[Jasonbay44]

Please remember ^that^. Also please remember that a banned poster taking on a new name doesn't grant him the same benefit of doubt that an actual new poster would get.

 

He's already gone, don't worry. I am 99% sure they were same person, and even if they weren't, based on that one post, I doubt that guy was going to be a solid contributor anyway.

[cp176]

Your a good man CP. but I still hate the Pom trade!!!

 

I appreciate this Slasher - feeling a little butt hurt here these daze(I'm in one most of the time)! lol

Seriously now ( I actually mean it ) - I totally get and understood entirely where you are and were coming from throughout that whole discussion. A part of me actually agrees.

[moonslav59]

Can you please take this to another thread?

 

It has nothing to do with the Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

Can you please take this to another thread?

 

It has nothing to do with the Sox.

 

I'm afraid that's a particularly nasty breed of troll that posted that.

[Sox75]

Moon,

 

It's not me. This dude has a screw loose.

It's also not a matter of "taking this to another thread."

He simply needs to be gone. The last time, he was posting

graphic gay porn.

[oldtimer]

The first long west coast road trip is over and taking stock of it, we have a not inconsiderable 11 games in the books or 6.7% of the season. With 10 starts by our vaunted rotation, we have one good game and one decent game by them with 8 really bad starts. The BP was used a lot and gednerally did well.

 

Our field players (outfielders) made uncharacteristically careless plays to lose us games while Devers and Nunez were back to their sloppy fielding in the infield. A few of our hitters look like they are settling in, like Beni, Bogaerts, Moreland, Swihart and JDM while Betts, Nunez, Bradley, Holt, Pearce and Vasquez need to do more. Bradley in particular talked about making changes in his swing mechanics but what little I have seen of him doesn't back up that claim.

 

Having Pedroia may help the team, can't do less than Holt and Nunez, but Friendly Fenway will be cold and raw in early April, so no picnic. Heres hoping that we start to play more like champions and less like a disinterested team. We need to start winning series, and to do that our starting pitching needs to show up every day.

 

Cora also has to get his act together as clearly Spring Training did not get the team ready to play.

[kenmeister]

Not only that, here are the small sample size 2019 numbers of our top 4 RP'ers:

 

IP -H -BB-ER

5.0 0 1 1 Workman

5.0 2 1 0 Brasier

2.0 0 0 0 Barnes

4.0 3 1 2 Thornburg

 

16 IP

8 H + BB

0.500 WHIL

 

2.25 ERA

 

Correction:

 

Brandon Workman has pitched 5.0 innings and allowed one base runner via walk. He did not allow an earned run.

Matt Barnes has pitched 4.1 innings.

 

So our top 3 relievers Brasier, Workman, and Barnes have pitched 14.1 innings with a combined 4 hits, 2 walks, and no runs allowed. The next trio of Colton Brewer, Hector Velazquez, and Heath Hembree have pitched 18.1 innings and allowed 6 runs, which is still excellent. Thornburg is actually the least effective at this point, with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA.