A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Things that don't show up in the stats and are therefore easy to forget...

 

And while we're on the topic of JBJ, it's worth saying that if he doesn't make that outstanding catch last night it becomes a 1-run game and the O's have the tying run in scoring position.

 

Agree 100%.

[notin]

Things that don't show up in the stats and are therefore easy to forget...

 

And while we're on the topic of JBJ, it's worth saying that if he doesn't make that outstanding catch last night it becomes a 1-run game and the O's have the tying run in scoring position.

 

 

The guy bats 8th or 9th. He isn’t there to hit. His offense is a bonus...

[jad]

The guy bats 8th or 9th. He isn’t there to hit. His offense is a bonus...

 

Well, yes and no. But baseball isn't like basketball or other sports. In basketball, defensive specialists don't have to shoot; in baseball, he has to hit--it's not a 'bonus'. Sure, if he doesn't make that catch last night, it's a one-run game. But if he had gotten a hit or two earlier, that catch wouldn't have mattered. Of course as a fan, I'd much rather watch these spectacular catches than a weak single to the opposite field--that's why I have always liked JBJ. But as far as winning games is concerned, the hit he prevents every three games or so is less valuable than, say, the two hits an average MLB hitter could have gotten at the plate during the same period.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, yes and no. But baseball isn't like basketball or other sports. In basketball, defensive specialists don't have to shoot; in baseball, he has to hit--it's not a 'bonus'. Sure, if he doesn't make that catch last night, it's a one-run game. But if he had gotten a hit or two earlier, that catch wouldn't have mattered. Of course as a fan, I'd much rather watch these spectacular catches than a weak single to the opposite field--that's why I have always liked JBJ. But as far as winning games is concerned, the hit he prevents every three games or so is less valuable than, say, the two hits an average MLB hitter could have gotten at the plate during the same period.

 

JBJ is just a hair below being an average hitter, based on his career 162 game averages:

 

236/315/402

OPS 717

OPS+ 91

HR 17

RBI 70

 

He has some dreadful cold spells. But also some torrid hot streaks-just ask the Astros!

[jad]

JBJ is just a hair below being an average hitter, based on his career 162 game averages:

 

236/315/402

OPS 717

OPS+ 91

HR 17

RBI 70

 

He has some dreadful cold spells. But also some torrid hot streaks-just ask the Astros!

 

I know. That's why I like him. But why a hitting coach can't figure out what the difference is between these streaks is beyond me. Again, we're not asking him to become Carl Yastzemski at the plate, just, maybe, Jimmy Pearsall or Gary Geiger.

[Bellhorn04]

I know. That's why I like him. But why a hitting coach can't figure out what the difference is between these streaks is beyond me.

 

It's not the hitting coaches. It's the opposing pitchers. They're a bunch of miserable pricks.

[jad]

It's not the hitting coaches. It's the opposing pitchers. They're a bunch of miserable pricks.

 

Exactly! Time to take the Bryce Harper approach to the rules: if it gets in my way (e.g., the shift), then it needs to be illegal. Obviously, opposing pitchers should not be allowed to throw anything other than 80 mph fast balls and occasional change-ups, up in the zone to him.

[moonslav59]

I know. That's why I like him. But why a hitting coach can't figure out what the difference is between these streaks is beyond me. Again, we're not asking him to become Carl Yastzemski at the plate, just, maybe, Jimmy Pearsall or Gary Geiger.

 

I contend he already is a decent hitter, despite the ice cold and often too long streaks.

 

If you throw out his horrible start to his career (530 PAs and .548 OPS), his OPS since 2015 is .762. He's averaged 21 HRs and 38 2B+ 3B per 630 PAs since then. It would be nice to have an OBP higher than .327, but he's been above average at the plate from 2015-2019.

 

MLB OPS from 2015-2019: .742.

JBJ: .762.

MLB CF OPS: .717.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[jad]

I contend he already is a decent hitter, despite the ice cold and often too long streaks.

 

If you throw out his horrible start to his career (530 PAs and .548 OPS), his OPS since 2015 is .762. He's averaged 21 HRs and 38 2B+ 3B per 630 PAs since then. It would be nice to have an OBP higher than .327, but he's been above average at the plate from 2015-2019.

 

MLB OPS from 2015-2019: .742.

JBJ: .762.

MLB CF OPS: .717.

 

 

Cool! Too bad most of those numbers of his seem to be in decline from a couple of years ago when one would expect them to be improving. But if this argument is what it takes to keep him on the field, fine. I'd frankly like to watch him play in the field even if it costs the RS a few games to keep him there!

[OH FOY]

Usually when you throw out a Players Worst, you should also throw out his best too. That usually tells about what kind of a player he is. Cant just go one way. Probably best way to go with such a streaky hitter like JBJ. Edited April 13, 2019 by OH FOY!

[fxkatt]

In a way, it seems like defense is more important to a team with great pitching. I mean how do you defend home runs and walks? But if you have a staff that walks 2 guys per 9 innings and allows .65 homers per game, a great defense would then shine and contribute more.

 

Maybe if our pitching goes truly south (as in more than 15 games) we can trade Bradley and Vazquez for a couple of big boppers so we can at least enjoy a home run derby in a losing season.

[moonslav59]

Cool! Too bad most of those numbers of his seem to be in decline from a couple of years ago when one would expect them to be improving. But if this argument is what it takes to keep him on the field, fine. I'd frankly like to watch him play in the field even if it costs the RS a few games to keep him there!

 

True, his OPS from 2017-2019 is just .705 with a .313 OBP.

 

His 2013-2014 and 2017-2019 combined sample size is larger than his very nice stratch from 2015 to 2016, so I am can see how we can view the poor-hitting JBJ as the "real JBJ."

 

That 2015-2016 stretch was pretty damn good, and the sample size was big enough to view as significant (891 PAs). His numbers those two years combined were .262/.345/.489/.834. Averaged over 162 games:

 

.262 26 92 (42 2B+3B & 97 runs scored)

 

That seems like so long ago.

 

I admit, I got very hopeful after he had a very prolonged good stretch, last year, after a poor start. I thought maybe he had finally solved the consistency problem that has plagued his career. His poor start, this year, is still a very small sample size, but it's getting close to the point it was last year, when he went...

 

.502 until May 19th (142 PAs)

 

.793 the rest of the season (393 PAs)

 

 

 

 

 

[SCM33]

In a way, it seems like defense is more important to a team with great pitching. I mean how do you defend home runs and walks? But if you have a staff that walks 2 guys per 9 innings and allows .65 homers per game, a great defense would then shine and contribute more.

 

Maybe if our pitching goes truly south (as in more than 15 games) we can trade Bradley and Vazquez for a couple of big boppers so we can at least enjoy a home run derby in a losing season.

 

LOL. Bradley and Vasquez....packaged together, could barely bring in a solid middle reliever, let alone multiple "big boppers".

[S5Dewey]

In a way, it seems like defense is more important to a team with great pitching. I mean how do you defend home runs and walks? But if you have a staff that walks 2 guys per 9 innings and allows .65 homers per game, a great defense would then shine and contribute more.

 

 

Sometimes good defense is what gives a team "great pitching". If Bradley doesn't make that catch Workman's ERA, WHIP, etc all go up. It's a lot easier for a pitcher to post good numbers when he has the Red Sox outfield behind him than it is for pitchers on other teams.

[moonslav59]

Sometimes good defense is what gives a team "great pitching". If Bradley doesn't make that catch Workman's ERA, WHIP, etc all go up. It's a lot easier for a pitcher to post good numbers when he has the Red Sox outfield behind him than it is for pitchers on other teams.

 

Now, if we could just improve our IF defense...

[dgalehouse]

It is high time this team woke up and started playing winning ball . After a dismal road trip , they were supposed to turn things around on the home stand. So far , they are 2 - 2 against two of the worst teams in MLB . Let's go . Cut the crap . Shape up .

[moonslav59]

Well, Price did his part.

[Kimmi]

They are a tough team, but I still like our 2019 roster better.

 

Definitely.

 

IMO, we are the better team.

 

We just have to play like it.

[moonslav59]

Definitely.

 

IMO, we are the better team.

 

We just have to play like it.

 

In time we will.

[vegasbob]

Ironic that Benintendi was scheduled for a day off Sunday, but with JBJr's flu had to stay in the lineup long enough to bruise his foot on a foul. Bet he misses Monday's game and maybe more. Holt, the super utility guy will need the rest of the week to get medically cleared, then some Pawtucket AB's to try and get to speed. Meanwhile the 13 pitchers are a luxury they may not afford much longer. Some changes are coming, but the overall slow start isn't being helped by the fluctuating lineup over the next week.

[SCM33]

In time we will.

 

And in other news, water is wet.

 

You really reached out there.

[jad]

And in other news, water is wet.

 

You really reached out there.

 

Wow!! His post was NOTHING compared to the depth and wit of this one! I think I follow you: water .. wet? Damn! I get it ... Like "The Pope is Catholic"? Whoa! Man, when you take on other posters, you really bring it. Are you a professional?

Edited April 15, 2019 by jad

[Kimmi]

In time we will.

 

No doubt, and IMO it will be sooner rather than later.

[moonslav59]

No doubt, and IMO it will be sooner rather than later.

 

I'm hoping sooner, as well, just to quite the naysayers and panicers.

 

[kenmeister]

Waiting for Pedroia to heat up ...

[Slasher9]

Waiting for Pedroia to heat up ...

 

well he's batting leadoff today. so maybe today is it?

[kenmeister]

well he's batting leadoff today. so maybe today is it?

 

Oh cool! And Vazquez is our second baseman. It's a weird one today.

 

This far into the season, Porcello and Pedroia are the ones I'm most worried about. EDIT: I'd also like to see a sign that Mookie Betts is getting back to all-star caliber.

[Slasher9]

Oh cool! And Vazquez is our second baseman. It's a weird one today.

 

This far into the season, Porcello and Pedroia are the ones I'm most worried about. EDIT: I'd also like to see a sign that Mookie Betts is getting back to all-star caliber.

 

i actually always give the offense a "pass" until the warm weather comes.

[kenmeister]

i actually always give the offense a "pass" until the warm weather comes.

 

I'll have to adopt your philosophy.

 

Pedroia is now hitting .105

Betts is now hitting .222

Pearce is now hitting .125

Swihart is now hitting .231

Vazquez is now hitting .195

Bradley is hitting .149

Nunez is hitting .184

 

I know it's early, but they are digging quite a hole, both in personal stats and team won-loss record.

[SCM33]

Redsox are benefiting from the fact that the Bruins and Celtics are in the playoffs.

 

This team would be crucified if people were paying attention. They have been awful.