A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Nick]

With 4-8 teams lookin highly competitive every year, it's awfully hard to project the winner more times than not, and I've been wrong way more than I've been right, but to me, the Sox look like the best team, on paper, and the Yanks are second.

 

The Dodger and Astros are not too far behind the Yanks.

 

There's the season's grind and then there's the playoffs.

 

Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi has pitched at some high altitude. I said last year was E Rod's year to have a break out year, similar to what Lester did at comparable mlb experience. That didn't happen but I think this maybe the year E Rod finally breaks out only because he was healthy this past winter.

 

In October, one starter will move to the pen and maybe two more will both start and close or pitch during crunch times.

 

I like this team once we get to the playoffs. Remember, Betts and JD were relatively quiet in the World Series. Hitting is always unpredictable but elite pitching usually comes through.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There's the season's grind and then there's the playoffs.

 

Sale, Price, Porcello and Eovaldi has pitched at some high altitude. I said last year was E Rod's year to have a break out year, similar to what Lester did at comparable mlb experience. That didn't happen but I think this maybe the year E Rod finally breaks out only because he was healthy this past winter.

 

In October, one starter will move to the pen and maybe two more will both start and close or pitch during crunch times.

 

I like this team once we get to the playoffs. Remember, Betts and JD were relatively quiet in the World Series. Hitting is always unpredictable but elite pitching usually comes through.

 

ERod was in the midst of breaking out, when he got hurt (again).

 

The team was 17-3 in his first 20 starts, and his ERA was 3.34.

 

Anything like that this year over 28-32 starts would be a huge boost.

[Bellhorn04]

I think only 4 have a great shot, as of now:

 

BOS

 

NYY

 

LAD

 

HOU

 

 

Looks very familiar.

[moonslav59]

Looks very familiar.

 

CLE and the Cubs dropped off from last year's short list.

 

Can the Brewers, Braves, Cards or someone else be added?

[notin]

CLE and the Cubs dropped off from last year's short list.

 

Can the Brewers, Braves, Cards or someone else be added?

 

So the NL is LAD or no one? No Braves or Nationals or Brewers?

[Kimmi]

I do wonder how good Tampa really is. They were 54-53 on July 31 before going on a 36-19 stretch to end the season. Are they going to be the April-July team or the one from the last two months? September records can be deceiving because of roster expansion and how it inundates the league with players who may not be major league caliber at the time...

 

The Rays are going to make some noise this year.

 

I think they'll be the second wild card team, behind the Yankees.

[Kimmi]

why bother Moon?

new york yankees are obviously 2019 ws champions.

 

That's okay.

 

They were also obviously the 2018 WS Champs. Until they weren't.

[notin]

The Rays are going to make some noise this year.

 

I think they'll be the second wild card team, behind the Yankees.

 

I think the Rays are the only team in MLB history to non-tender their cleanup hitter...

[moonslav59]

So the NL is LAD or no one? No Braves or Nationals or Brewers?

 

I mentioned 3 others as possibilities.

[moonslav59]

I think the Rays are the only team in MLB history to non-tender their cleanup hitter...

 

...and then win 90 games.

[moonslav59]

I think the Rays are the only team in MLB history to non-tender their cleanup hitter...

 

...and we DFA'd our 3 slot hitter.

[Nick]

Per MLB.COM projection

 

RED SOX

Lineup:

1. Andrew Benintendi, LF

2. Mookie Betts, RF

3. J.D. Martinez, DH

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS

5. Mitch Moreland, 1B

6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

7. Rafael Devers, 3B

8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

9. Christian Vazquez, C

 

Rotation and closer:

1. Chris Sale, LHP

2. David Price, LHP

3. Rick Porcello, RHP

4. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

5. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

Closer: Matt Barnes, RHP

 

Our offense has chance to be better...little deeper/longer. (Note; since I can't predict who is going to get hurt, our discussion here is understood "assuming healthy")

[moonslav59]

Per MLB.COM projection

 

RED SOX

Lineup:

1. Andrew Benintendi, LF

2. Mookie Betts, RF

3. J.D. Martinez, DH

4. Xander Bogaerts, SS

5. Mitch Moreland, 1B

6. Dustin Pedroia, 2B

7. Rafael Devers, 3B

8. Jackie Bradley Jr., CF

9. Christian Vazquez, C

 

Rotation and closer:

1. Chris Sale, LHP

2. David Price, LHP

3. Rick Porcello, RHP

4. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

5. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

Closer: Matt Barnes, RHP

 

Our offense has chance to be better...little deeper/longer. (Note; since I can't predict who is going to get hurt, our discussion here is understood "assuming healthy")

 

I'd flip Bogey and JD as well as Devers and Moreland.

[notin]

...and then win 90 games.

 

 

Ummm ... actually they won 90 games and then non-tendered CJ Cron...

[moonslav59]

Ummm ... actually they won 90 games and then non-tendered CJ Cron...

 

Yes. I've already skipped a year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Last ST, I said the Sox and Yanks were pretty even. The Yanks ended up having more injuries and DD outmanuevered Cashman at the deadline to add two Yankee killers. This offseason, we upgraded a lot with Happ, Britton, Ottavino, Paxton and Lemahieu and lost only KRob and Gray while the Sox upgraded a bit by retaining Pearce and Eovaldi and lost a bit with Kimbrel and Kelly moving on. Our five added more than make up for the loss of the two who walked. You’re two don’t necessarily make up for the two who left. I’ll say it right now

 

Yankees 97-65

Sox 95-67

Rays 92-70

Toronto 75-87

Baltimore 55-107

 

Sox and Rays play the WC play in game

[Bellhorn04]

Last ST, I said the Sox and Yanks were pretty even. The Yanks ended up having more injuries and DD outmanuevered Cashman at the deadline to add two Yankee killers. This offseason, we upgraded a lot with Happ, Britton, Ottavino, Paxton and Lemahieu and lost only KRob and Gray while the Sox upgraded a bit by retaining Pearce and Eovaldi and lost a bit with Kimbrel and Kelly moving on. Our five added more than make up for the loss of the two who walked. You’re two don’t necessarily make up for the two who left. I’ll say it right now

 

Yankees 97-65

Sox 95-67

 

So you have the Yankees 2 games worse than their 2018 Pythagorean record, and the Red Sox 8 games worse.

[oldtimer]

I'd flip Bogey and JD as well as Devers and Moreland.

 

Looking for Devers to be the most imporved player on the squad this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

So you have the Yankees 2 games worse than their 2018 Pythagorean record, and the Red Sox 8 games worse.

 

The upside I see for the Sox is ERod being healthy, Eovaldi proving his stuff will translate over a full year and Devers breaking out. I guess you could also add the catchers position, although it’s not really a breakout if they move from horrendous to below average, but you’ll take it, I’m sure. Pedroia is a wild card and the board has treated him as such which is appropriate

 

The downside I see is JD and Mookie still being forces of nature but not repeating 2018. This isn’t that hard to follow. JD was a DH and had over 6 WAR. Mookie was out of his mind last year. Both guys could fall back to .900 OPS seasons and be very productive, all star level players. Chris Sale had the best 2/3 of a season he’s ever had. He finished the year looking like a shell of himself with a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity. His downside this year is humongous mostly because of how high he has soared. If he’s just good, that’s a big fall. Eovaldi’s health history needs no introduction, so while he was a trade deadline add and postseason folk hero, he could also be on the shelf. Price’s history of elbow woes hampered him for two seasons. He finished well, clearly, but he’s got some concerns there. Xander has a career season. If he slides back a bit, he’d still be all star caliber. Pearce was out of his mind after the trade, likely not to be repeated. Kimbrel is gone leaving a pen in disarray.

 

This all adds up to one commonality that I’ll throw out there. The Sox offense will be stacked, still top 3, maybe number 1, but they won’t score as many runs. The rotation, now shored with Eovaldi will be good when the top 5 take the bump, but there will be a fair amount of starts by your #6 and #7 starters. The leads handed to your pen will be slightly smaller than last year and likely earlier than last year, which is going to put a lot of pressure on the underbelly of your club. This is why the Sox are going to finish behind NY. The pen overachieved based on personnel last year. They lost two of their top 4 relievers and added nobody to it. The pen losses will mount. The best way to beat your pythag is to have a dominant pen.

Edited February 22, 2019 by jacksonianmarch

[moonslav59]

Last ST, I said the Sox and Yanks were pretty even. The Yanks ended up having more injuries and DD outmanuevered Cashman at the deadline to add two Yankee killers. This offseason, we upgraded a lot with Happ, Britton, Ottavino, Paxton and Lemahieu and lost only KRob and Gray while the Sox upgraded a bit by retaining Pearce and Eovaldi and lost a bit with Kimbrel and Kelly moving on. Our five added more than make up for the loss of the two who walked. You’re two don’t necessarily make up for the two who left. I’ll say it right now

 

Yankees 97-65

Sox 95-67

Rays 92-70

Toronto 75-87

Baltimore 55-107

 

Sox and Rays play the WC play in game

 

Ottavino replaces Robertson. Paxton is a big upgrade over Gray & Lynn, if he can stay healthy. The Happ & Britton retentions are pretty much the same as us keeping Eovaldi & Pearce. Nothing changes from the teams we had in the playoffs except Paxton over Gray/Lynn and our loss of Kimbrel, who sucked in the playoffs.

 

The gap is not as large as you want it to be (and probably bigger than I want it to be).

[moonslav59]

The upside I see for the Sox is ERod being healthy, Eovaldi proving his stuff will translate over a full year and Devers breaking out. I guess you could also add the catchers position, although it’s not really a breakout if they move from horrendous to below average, but you’ll take it, I’m sure.

Going from .540 to .640 could offset JD and Betts each dropping .050.

 

Pedroia is a wild card and the board has treated him as such which is appropriate

If Nunez gets over his knee issue, we could get a 2017 type season from him and not need Pedey.

 

 

The downside I see is JD and Mookie still being forces of nature but not repeating 2018. This isn’t that hard to follow. JD was a DH and had over 6 WAR. Mookie was out of his mind last year. Both guys could fall back to .900 OPS seasons and be very productive, all star level players.

Both could easily do the same or maybe even better. Betts is still prime and JD is still in the window.

 

Chris Sale had the best 2/3 of a season he’s ever had. He finished the year looking like a shell of himself with a mystery shoulder injury that sapped his velocity. His downside this year is humongous mostly because of how high he has soared.

It is a concern, but so is Paxton, CC and Didi.

 

If he’s just good, that’s a big fall. Eovaldi’s health history needs no introduction, so while he was a trade deadline add and postseason folk hero, he could also be on the shelf. Price’s history of elbow woes hampered him for two seasons. He finished well, clearly, but he’s got some concerns there.

Maybe Porcello steps up bigly.

 

Xander has a career season. If he slides back a bit, he’d still be all star caliber.

You act like a player on the way to peak prime having a career year is some kind of fluke. Many players nearing prime have a few career years as the enter prime.

 

Pearce was out of his mind after the trade, likely not to be repeated.

He's been pretty good up to the trade as well. Here are his pro-rated numbers to 650 PAs since 2016:

2016: .288 27 75 (.867 OPS)

2017: .252 25 70 (.757)

2018: .284 28 107 (.890) He was .868 with TOR and .901 with us.

(He also had a .930 OPS in 2014.)

Of the 43 1Bmen with 900+ PAs, Pearce places 12th with a .830 OPS. Y4es, he's getting older, but one can easily view 2018 as not a fluke.

Kimbrel is gone leaving a pen in disarray.

Opinion. Just like it's my opinion your SS and 1B positions are in disarray.

 

This all adds up to one commonality that I’ll throw out there. The Sox offense will be stacked, still top 3, maybe number 1, but they won’t score as many runs.

They will score more. Book it.

 

The rotation, now shored with Eovaldi will be good when the top 5 take the bump, but there will be a fair amount of starts by your #6 and #7 starters. The leads handed to your pen will be slightly smaller than last year and likely earlier than last year, which is going to put a lot of pressure on the underbelly of your club.

Our rotation is better this year. There is no reason to think the leads will be smaller.

 

This is why the Sox are going to finish behind NY. The pen overachieved based on personnel last year.

Overachieved based on your projections. The Yanks overachieved, too.

 

They lost two of their top 4 relievers and added nobody to it. The pen losses will mount. The best way to beat your pythag is to have a dominant pen.

Opinion. There are many ways of winning games. You choose the pen as the most important, and we all know why.

[Slasher9]

Last ST, I said the Sox and Yanks were pretty even. The Yanks ended up having more injuries and DD outmanuevered Cashman at the deadline to add two Yankee killers. This offseason, we upgraded a lot with Happ, Britton, Ottavino, Paxton and Lemahieu and lost only KRob and Gray while the Sox upgraded a bit by retaining Pearce and Eovaldi and lost a bit with Kimbrel and Kelly moving on. Our five added more than make up for the loss of the two who walked. You’re two don’t necessarily make up for the two who left. I’ll say it right now

 

Yankees 97-65

Sox 95-67

Rays 92-70

Toronto 75-87

Baltimore 55-107

 

Sox and Rays play the WC play in game

 

awesome. thank you for guaranteeing Red Sox division winners again.

back to back to back to back

[Slasher9]

So you have the Yankees 2 games worse than their 2018 Pythagorean record, and the Red Sox 8 games worse.

 

ignoring my man Pyth for a second...apparently CK & JK had a combined WAR of 13

apparently rivera wont be the only reliever to get 100% of the vote on 1st ballot....

[mvp 78]

...and we DFA'd our 3 slot hitter.

 

He should never have been hitting 3rd to begin with.

[Slasher9]

Looking for Devers to be the most imporved player on the squad this year.

 

it will be a toss up between him and Erod. the new wipeout slider is going to have him being called an Ace before this season ends....

[Slasher9]

just a quick reminder. we won the division by 8 GAMES last season. and that was with taking the foot off the gas pedal for the month of September.

[BillyWilliams]

just a quick reminder. we won the division by 8 GAMES last season. and that was with taking the foot off the gas pedal for the month of September.

 

Quick reminder, that was last year which has nothing at all to do with this year.......

[mvp 78]

Quick reminder, that was last year which has nothing at all to do with this year.......

 

Says the guy with ONLY 18 MORE TO GO EVEN THOUGH I WASN'T ALIVE FOR MOST OF THEM in his avatar...

[BillyWilliams]

Says the guy with ONLY 18 MORE TO GO EVEN THOUGH I WASN'T ALIVE FOR MOST OF THEM in his avatar...

 

But I never stated that it has anything to do with this year............

[mvp 78]

But I never stated that it has anything to do with this year............

 

lol