A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Ok - I'll take the half. Even though it isn't in my dna, I will work harder in the future!

 

I have faith in you. It's Bryce Brentz that I have no faith in...

[cp176]

I have faith in you. It's Bryce Brentz that I have no faith in...

 

I have to admit it I guess - the chances of him showing up in Fenway this year are really minuscule.

[Nick]

http://weei.radio.com

 

JD's take on current FA situation. It's still hard for me to feel sympathetic for guys making over $10M.

 

Oakland won 97 games with payroll of less than $100M. That in essence is the battle players are facing.

[Bellhorn04]

http://weei.radio.com

 

JD's take on current FA situation. It's still hard for me to feel sympathetic for guys making over $10M.

 

Oakland won 97 games with payroll of less than $100M. That in essence is the battle players are facing.

 

What it all comes down to is whether the owners, collectively, are spending enough of their revenues on payroll.

 

Oakland's revenues are s***, so you can't fault them for low payrolls.

[notin]

I have to admit it I guess - the chances of him showing up in Fenway this year are really minuscule.

 

 

Not really. He can buy a ticket just like the rest of us...

[dgalehouse]

http://weei.radio.com

 

JD's take on current FA situation. It's still hard for me to feel sympathetic for guys making over $10M.

 

Oakland won 97 games with payroll of less than $100M. That in essence is the battle players are facing.

 

J.D.'s opinion is clearly shared by the rest of the players . Yes , It is hard to feel sympathy for players making big money . But there is huge money in the sport . The players want their share . It is very , very hard to feel sympathy for the owners . As for Oakland , they have not won a championship since their glory days . The Money Ball era has produced zero titles .

[cp176]

Personally I think that I would feel differently if I thought that the owners of these ml teams all were doing what they could to compete at the highest level. They aren't. They can claim that they are preparing for the future all they want to, they aren't. They continue to grow richer at the expense of their fans. Attendance is in decline and will continue in that trend until they wake up to the fact that everybody would like to think that they have a chance to win it all.

[moonslav59]

I know that . I was referring to those who normally reject the use of small sample sizes , but make an exception when it fits the narrative.

 

Who, me?

 

Pearce's sample size used was 4 years and 900+ PAs.

 

Yes, the Eovaldi sample size was small, and I qualified my enthusiasm with the disclaimer that both could disappoint.

[dgalehouse]

Who, me?

 

Pearce's sample size used was 4 years and 900+ PAs.

 

Yes, the Eovaldi sample size was small, and I qualified my enthusiasm with the disclaimer that both could disappoint.

 

My point is that Eovaldi and Pearce are well traveled veterans . They were excellent acquisitions last season ( although not everyone thought so at the time ) and had career best performances in the World Series. They are not exactly kids entering their prime , but certainly not over the hill either . We should expect that they will produce something similar to their career numbers . And that's okay . It should help the ballclub. But if reupping them was the only thing we accomplished this off season , I think it smacks of complacency and perhaps overconfidence.

[moonslav59]

My point is that Eovaldi and Pearce are well traveled veterans . They were excellent acquisitions last season ( although not everyone thought so at the time ) and had career best performances in the World Series. They are not exactly kids entering their prime , but certainly not over the hill either . We should expect that they will produce something similar to their career numbers . And that's okay . It should help the ballclub. But if reupping them was the only thing we accomplished this off season , I think it smacks of complacency and perhaps overconfidence.

 

I'm just expecting something similar to Pearce's last 4 years combined and not his career norm, despite him being past prime.

 

Eovaldi is a tough projection, because of his injuries that make him appear inconsistent. I am well aware of is history and know he may give us something close to his career norm. The problem is, he rarely has a season like his career norm. He's either hurt, doing much worse or much better than his norm.

 

I think he learned something last year, beyond just a new pitch, but certainly many a player who has done great in a short series (or Super Bowl game) has gone on to never come near that again. There is surely a significant chance Eovaldi lets me down, but I feel the chances are he does better than he did last regular season but not as great as the playoffs.

 

Instead of 3.81 /1.126 over 111 IP, maybe he gives us close to that but over 180 IP.

 

[Bellhorn04]

My point is that Eovaldi and Pearce are well traveled veterans . They were excellent acquisitions last season ( although not everyone thought so at the time ) and had career best performances in the World Series. They are not exactly kids entering their prime , but certainly not over the hill either . We should expect that they will produce something similar to their career numbers . And that's okay . It should help the ballclub. But if reupping them was the only thing we accomplished this off season , I think it smacks of complacency and perhaps overconfidence.

 

It also smacks of constraints, as in financial ones. Even with only signing Eovaldi and Pearce we have the highest payroll and we're 30 million + over the tax threshold.

 

I understand your concerns about the pen, but other than that I'm not sure what big moves you were expecting.

[notin]

My point is that Eovaldi and Pearce are well traveled veterans . They were excellent acquisitions last season ( although not everyone thought so at the time ) and had career best performances in the World Series. They are not exactly kids entering their prime , but certainly not over the hill either . We should expect that they will produce something similar to their career numbers . And that's okay . It should help the ballclub. But if reupping them was the only thing we accomplished this off season , I think it smacks of complacency and perhaps overconfidence.

 

 

Pearce turns 36 this year and has never been a starter at MLB. Clearly post prime and best suited for a part time role.

 

But 29yo Eovaldi isn’t in his prime? Granted the ceiling is unknown largely due to sporadic health issues, but the Dox are very likely to get the best years Eovaldi has left. It’s just a question about how good they will be...

[moonslav59]

Pearce turns 36 this year and has never been a starter at MLB. Clearly post prime and best suited for a part time role.

 

But 29yo Eovaldi isn’t in his prime? Granted the ceiling is unknown largely due to sporadic health issues, but the Dox are very likely to get the best years Eovaldi has left. It’s just a question about how good they will be...

 

I'm not expecting Pearce to be FT, but I'm not worried, if he has to face RH'd pitchers more than before. He's actually done better than Moreland in those splits over recent years, and Moreland has battled injuries over the last 2 years. Pearce seems to be one of those players that bloomed late. His 33-35 year 3-year sample size is his best consecutive 3 year stretch of his career. Could it all end suddenly? Of course, but I'm hoping he can give us another year some where around his 2016-2018 numbers.

 

Eovaldi is certainly a question mark, but yes, he is in prime not past it. He also doesn't have a lot of inning on his arm, and he seems to be throwing harder than ever. Plus, he developed a new pitch last year that was very effective. There is reason for health concerns, but there really is no reason to think he cannot have a very good or even great season in 2019.

 

I'm not sure why Paxton gets all the love, when his health history isn't any better.

[kenmeister]

I'm also very interested to see if Price can be his second-half self of last year all year this year. That would be a huge boost.

[moonslav59]

I'm also very interested to see if Price can be his second-half self of last year all year this year. That would be a huge boost.

 

I'm hopeful he will continue to show that his first year here was a fluke.

 

We have a lot of ifs with our rotation but the ceilings are so damn high for all of them, it's hard to not be optimistic:

 

Sale pitched better than ever in 2018. It's all about his health.

 

Price looked like an ace in the playoffs and has had great seasons in the past.

 

Porcello won a Cy Young not long ago.

 

ERod might have the best stuff out of any one else.

 

Eovaldi needs to stay healthy and focused. Lots of upside with him.

[notin]

I'm not expecting Pearce to be FT, but I'm not worried, if he has to face RH'd pitchers more than before. He's actually done better than Moreland in those splits over recent years, and Moreland has battled injuries over the last 2 years. Pearce seems to be one of those players that bloomed late. His 33-35 year 3-year sample size is his best consecutive 3 year stretch of his career. Could it all end suddenly? Of course, but I'm hoping he can give us another year some where around his 2016-2018 numbers.

 

Eovaldi is certainly a question mark, but yes, he is in prime not past it. He also doesn't have a lot of inning on his arm, and he seems to be throwing harder than ever. Plus, he developed a new pitch last year that was very effective. There is reason for health concerns, but there really is no reason to think he cannot have a very good or even great season in 2019.

 

I'm not sure why Paxton gets all the love, when his health history isn't any better.

 

 

The early pre-season explosion of Michael Chavis is making me prematurely question the signing of Pearce, particularly given the complete dearth of bullpen spending. But as I said, this is very premature. While Pearce may not have the loftiest ceiling, there is at least a comfortable floor. Chavis, on the other hand, is a complete unknown and the only thing in his history that really works for him seems to be his perceived ability to handle the limited weak side platoon roles as evidenced by how well he handled last season at the plate after a lengthy suspension...

[moonslav59]

The early pre-season explosion of Michael Chavis is making me prematurely question the signing of Pearce, particularly given the complete dearth of bullpen spending. But as I said, this is very premature. While Pearce may not have the loftiest ceiling, there is at least a comfortable floor. Chavis, on the other hand, is a complete unknown and the only thing in his history that really works for him seems to be his perceived ability to handle the limited weak side platoon roles as evidenced by how well he handled last season at the plate after a lengthy suspension...

 

I'm shocked you are being swayed by ST'ing numbers, especially early ST'ing where the pitchers he is facing are no-names.

[BillyWilliams]

I'm shocked you are being swayed by ST'ing numbers, especially early ST'ing where the pitchers he is facing are no-names.

 

Umm, he did state that it was very premature........

[moonslav59]

Umm, he did state that it was very premature........

 

True.

[BillyWilliams]

Kraft stuff should be posted on the NFL thread.

 

Looks like kraft wasn't the only boston billionaire popped in that sting, john childs of JW Childs Assoc. was nabbed as well.

[notin]

I'm shocked you are being swayed by ST'ing numbers, especially early ST'ing where the pitchers he is facing are no-names.

 

 

I did say it was premature. Twice...

[Slasher9]

It also smacks of constraints, as in financial ones. Even with only signing Eovaldi and Pearce we have the highest payroll and we're 30 million + over the tax threshold.

 

I understand your concerns about the pen, but other than that I'm not sure what big moves you were expecting.

 

i think we should expect All Star level players at every position tho?

[Slasher9]

I'm also very interested to see if Price can be his second-half self of last year all year this year. That would be a huge boost.

 

great post Ken. to me, this is the most crucial indicator for our 2019 success.

[FredLynn]

Umm, he did state that it was very premature........

 

So premature as to be irrelevant at this time.

[moonslav59]

I did say it was premature. Twice...

 

True and true.

 

I thought you might have been being sarcastic.

[Slasher9]

I'm hopeful he will continue to show that his first year here was a fluke.

 

We have a lot of ifs with our rotation but the ceilings are so damn high for all of them, it's hard to not be optimistic:

 

Sale pitched better than ever in 2018. It's all about his health.

 

Price looked like an ace in the playoffs and has had great seasons in the past.

 

Porcello won a Cy Young not long ago.

 

ERod might have the best stuff out of any one else.

 

Eovaldi needs to stay healthy and focused. Lots of upside with him.

 

Erod has developed a wipeout slider. he will be the Ace of the staff before this season is over. this will go down as one of the best trades of all time. thanks Ben!

[moonslav59]

great post Ken. to me, this is the most crucial indicator for our 2019 success.

 

Assuming Sale stays healthy all year, I agree.

[moonslav59]

Erod has developed a wipeout slider. he will be the Ace of the staff before this season is over. this will go down as one of the best trades of all time. thanks Ben!

 

You may be right.

[notin]

Erod has developed a wipeout slider. he will be the Ace of the staff before this season is over. this will go down as one of the best trades of all time. thanks Ben!

 

 

It’s really tough to top swapping Pavano and Armas Jr....

[Nick]

I did say it was premature. Twice...

 

I'm so confused. I thought you were talking about Robert Kraft.