A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Exhibit A

 

The defense rests.

 

That's dgalehouse's position, and it is shared by some others, certainly.

 

Some of us see things differently.

 

moon is probably the most objective guy on the whole board when it comes to evaluating Theo, Ben and DD. He shows no favoritism toward any of them.

 

I was a huge fan of Theo, as you know, and I spent a lot of time defending him against his detractors on other boards.

 

I was with Ben up until I saw our pitching staff at the start of 2015. That was when I first really questioned what he was doing.

[Fisk]

I’m aware that the Yanks need to make some decisions as the kids age out of being cheap. This is one of the reasons you’re seeing Cashman not create a cliff. Corbin for 6 years would have been the last four years of rookie control and the first two FA seasons of Judge and Sanchez. That’s how Cash must look at things now. You break that rule for a guy like Harper or Machado, but on the whole, you have to prepare for the future so as to not have a ton of guys to pay and no funds to pay them from.

 

I do agree that the next CBA will be a war. Last year’s FA market was dead when the big spenders reset and I can imagine the players are out for blood after that. I think the commish will go for an INTL draft, which will really hinder teams at the back end of the draft, and then offset that with less harsh penalties for spending.

 

I do wonder if the next CBA doesn’t have a lux tax, but has a draft penalty. That would keep the money from being pulled from the team’s and not going to the players but also penalize the larger markets.

The players will fight for no draft penalty so I’m not sure how bad it will be.

Looking at the Sox during the Cherington years they had the same philosophy the Yankees have right now, a couple years of failure led to DD coming on, and realizing spending was important to rejuvenate the fan base. Now if the Yankees don’t ultimately win the World Series I would be interested if there philosophy changes. Signing a Machado or Harper though will ultimately lead them to the higher tax brackets.

[Nick]

There's a reason why it's called the Competitive Balance Tax.

 

It's not good for any team to win say 5 straight world series. Major league baseball wants all 30 teams to have some success. It goes without saying that as teams succeed, their players will demand better contract, better pay.

 

This is why almost every SUCCESSFUL team will ultimately face the 'cliff'.

 

Yankee fans can be smug right now but their 'cliff' will come also. To think it won't happen to them because they are SO MUCH SMARTER than rest of the league is so typical of Yankee fans.

[jacksonianmarch]

We are not naive at all about a cliff for us. If our prospect pipeline closes, we’re gonna run into trouble in 5 years when we have paid for Judge, Sanchez and Sevy and then need to shell out for Andujar and Torres. We need to develop position player replacements within 3 years or else we will run into the same problems. Same with pitching

[Bellhorn04]

There's a reason why it's called the Competitive Balance Tax.

 

It's not good for any team to win say 5 straight world series. Major league baseball wants all 30 teams to have some success. It goes without saying that as teams succeed, their players will demand better contract, better pay.

 

This is why almost every SUCCESSFUL team will ultimately face the 'cliff'.

 

And this is borne out by the fact that no team has even won back-to-back since the EE did it in 2000.

[Nick]

We are not naive at all about a cliff for us. If our prospect pipeline closes, we’re gonna run into trouble in 5 years when we have paid for Judge, Sanchez and Sevy and then need to shell out for Andujar and Torres. We need to develop position player replacements within 3 years or else we will run into the same problems. Same with pitching

 

Well, you're not a typical Yankee fan. I think you are astute, level headed baseball fan. I think everyone here wished all Yankee fans had your disposition.

[Fisk]

And this is borne out by the fact that no team has even won back-to-back since the EE did it in 2000.

 

Actually when has the competitive balance tax stopped any one from repeating, it’s not like the small market teams have poured money into there payroll and the only small market team to win since 2003 is the Royals.

 

What has caused teams not to repeat is some randomness, if Beckett didn’t pull his oblique before 2008 playoffs great chance there would have been a repeat, if the Astros didn’t run into a Sox buzzsaw they probably would have repeated. The Yankees never scaled down until the past couple of years, they reloaded year after year. No team except maybe the 2003 Marlins scaled back after winning the World Series .

[dgalehouse]

Despite all of the gobbledygook about taxes , cliffs and so forth, teams like the Red Sox , Yankees and Dodgers will continue to dominate. MLB is a big money, big market game . The small market, small time Charlies can continue to scrimp , nurture their farm systems, sing the blues , hope for the future and keep begging for handouts and help.

[moonslav59]

But how long can you drop out of the first round and drop your draft pool? For reference, I don’t think the Yankees will ever go over the final threshold. The talent you lose and the flexibility to sign talent with the draft pool drop is a big penalty. I know $513K doesn’t sound like much and it isn’t to these corporations, but when it’s 10% of your draft pool, it does add up

 

Now last year the Sox surpassed the threshold at the deadline knowing they’d be one of the final picks in the draft anyway. Let’s say the Sox surpass that final hurdle before the season and they have a WS hangover. Let’s say they are already over the final hurdle and end up at pick 20. The drop from 20-30 is almost $900K and after the 5% takes you up to $930K. That’s an immense amount to lose

 

The official budget tally has not been released to my knowledge. I think the estimate had us less than $1M over the final limit.

 

Let's wait and see.

 

I'm not saying the draft penalty is not significant; you opened my eyes on that, but what you get in talent through free agency that puts you over $40M is very significant, too.

 

[dgalehouse]

And this is borne out by the fact that no team has even won back-to-back since the EE did it in 2000.

 

With the current playoff format , it is much more difficult to repeat than it used to be.

[moonslav59]

With the current playoff format , it is much more difficult to repeat than it used to be.

 

But easier to get in when you are not a top contender in the regular season.

[jacksonianmarch]

With the current playoff format , it is much more difficult to repeat than it used to be.

 

The Yanks never entered as a wild card during their run and their run coincided with the addition of a wild card, so the two series AL playoff format still existed. The new playoff format makes winning your division very important. The changes financially with teams is the reason why teams don’t repeat nowadays

[moonslav59]

The Sox have one ring as a WC team, so in some ways, it can make a team more likely to win several rings in a relatively short period of time.

 

Certainly, the play-in game makes it harder for WC teams to win it all, but it give an extra chance for a team to sneak in the playoffs and have a chance to win it all.

[moonslav59]

MLBTRs reports...

 

It’s “believed” that free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino is near the top of Boston’s bullpen wish list, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The same is true of the previously reported David Robertson, per Heyman. With closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly as their best remaining free agents, it’s no surprise that the world champion Red Sox are exploring the top of the market for bullpen help. Those two led full-time Red Sox relievers in innings pitched last season, and Kimbrel was particularly effective. The 33-year-old Ottavino may have been even better, though, as the former Rockie was among the game’s elite relievers in 2018 despite having to pitch his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Ottavino placed fourth among relievers in average exit velocity against (84.9 mph), sixth in fWAR (2.0), 11th in K/9 (12.98, against 4.17 BB/9), 13th in innings (77 2/3) and 17th in ERA (2.43), putting himself in position to score a lucrative contract in free agency.

[dgalehouse]

Ottavino looks like he might be a decent addition. However , I wouldn't get too enthusiastic about him being the closer. He is 33 years old , with a career ERA of 3.68 . He has only 17 career saves .

[moonslav59]

Ottavino looks like he might be a decent addition. However , I wouldn't get too enthusiastic about him being the closer. He is 33 years old , with a career ERA of 3.68 . He has only 17 career saves .

 

He's not someone I'm drooling over, but he take away from the loss of Kimbrel to some extent.

 

He was awful in 2017, but he's been pretty good in the other years since 2013. (2013-2018, including 2017: 3.12 ERA and 1.22 WHIP and 10.7 K/9)

[Kimmi]

Ottavino looks like he might be a decent addition. However , I wouldn't get too enthusiastic about him being the closer. He is 33 years old , with a career ERA of 3.68 . He has only 17 career saves .

 

It all depends on the cost, of course. But Ottavino did rank very high in quality of contact, 2nd out of 224 relief pitchers, behind only Leclerc, per Red Sox Stats.

[Larry Cook]

Really hard to think about us signing Ottavino after watching him pitch two years ago. He was serving up more meatballs than the Olive Garden.

 

It was uglier than a strienbrenner family reunion!

 

Our future closer and 8th inning guys are currently in our system. His names are Houck and Feltman. Throw in Hernandez and lakins and we got the makings of a killer pen!

[moonslav59]

If you never signed any pitcher because of one bad year out of the last 5, there might not be anybody left.

[notin]

Really hard to think about us signing Ottavino after watching him pitch two years ago. He was serving up more meatballs than the Olive Garden.

 

It was uglier than a strienbrenner family reunion!

 

Our future closer and 8th inning guys are currently in our system. His names are Houck and Feltman. Throw in Hernandez and lakins and we got the makings of a killer pen!

 

 

Can we wait until Houck and Feltman get a couple innings in AA ball before we anoint them bullpen saviors?

[Emp9]

Any thoughts on Strickland? He may be in our price range.

[cp176]

Really hard to think about us signing Ottavino after watching him pitch two years ago. He was serving up more meatballs than the Olive Garden.

 

It was uglier than a strienbrenner family reunion!

 

Our future closer and 8th inning guys are currently in our system. His names are Houck and Feltman. Throw in Hernandez and lakins and we got the makings of a killer pen!

 

Wait - that can't be Larry - Houck, Feltman, Hernandez and Lakins are all guys currently in our depleted farm system. lol

The cheese clearly has slid off your cracker.

[notin]

Any thoughts on Strickland? He may be in our price range.

 

An extremely confusing non-tender.

 

Part of me hopes the Sox take advantage. But part of me wonders if San Francisco knows something...

[moonslav59]

Really hard to think about us signing Ottavino after watching him pitch two years ago. He was serving up more meatballs than the Olive Garden.

 

It was uglier than a strienbrenner family reunion!

 

Our future closer and 8th inning guys are currently in our system. His names are Houck and Feltman. Throw in Hernandez and lakins and we got the makings of a killer pen!

 

Certainly, they all show promise, and I'd love for one or two of them to rise quickly and win a significant role within a year or two, but none are nationally ranked. I realize many players make good who are never ranked, but I find it hard to get overly optimistic about any of our pitching prospects. The ones I like the most are in single A.

[jacksonianmarch]

Sooooo you're gonna pin your hopes on a guy who struggled for the first half of an A ball season and a couple other would be rookie relievers untested at high levels (aside from Lakins). Please do that, I beg of you

[moonslav59]

Sooooo you're gonna pin your hopes on a guy who struggled for the first half of an A ball season and a couple other would be rookie relievers untested at high levels (aside from Lakins). Please do that, I beg of you

 

It's not happening, and you know it.

 

Fans getting high on their team's prospects is nothing new. I'm sure DD is not counting on anything from those 4 in 2019.

[jacksonianmarch]

He is absolutely counting on them. He is counting on them bringing something back in return in a deal. There is a good chance none sniff the sox big league team

[Nick]

Per DD (we should always pay attention to what he says)

 

"That changes, because some of our conversations with our own internal players change, too. But we're cognizant of a couple of really important guys that we want to keep for the long-term that are going to be free agents within the next year or two. That is in the back of our mind."

 

Betts is one. Who is the other guy? Is it Sale or is it JD Martinez?

[oldtimer]

This morning DD indicated that the Sox are not sure about Pedey, but may know more in January. DD indicated there are no plans to go after any field players and if there is an issue at 2nd, that could be resolved at a later time. Meanwhile, Holt and Nunez could play if necessary. The only likely changes are with pitching and with the catching scenarios.

[notin]

This morning DD indicated that the Sox are not sure about Pedey, but may know more in January. DD indicated there are no plans to go after any field players and if there is an issue at 2nd, that could be resolved at a later time. Meanwhile, Holt and Nunez could play if necessary. The only likely changes are with pitching and with the catching scenarios.

 

 

I figured catching was up in the air, due to the poor showing the Sox received from the position analytically. The only name mentioned that I’ve seen so far was Francisco Cervelli, which may have happened to some extent, but these types of contact can get reported with more enthusiasm than actually existed.

 

Cervelli seems like a questionable choice. He’s a very good catcher on a short deal that won’t hamstring anything beyond 2019. But his history with concussions is alarming.

 

I haven’t read any other catcher names mentioned in conjunction with the Sox. I do strongly believe they cannot afford Realmuto without doing something drastic and potentially stupid (like swapping Benintendi).

 

As for 2b, it is possible the Sox make a Rule 5 pick for the position, someone like Max Schrock or Kean Wong. That way, if Pedroia is healthy, they simply return the player. No harm, no foul. Given the recent and perfectly timed DFA of Robby Scott, it is a possibility. ( Grabbing a reliever is more likely.)

 

But catcher could get interesting. The goal is likely an offensive upgrade while minimizing defensive subtractions. Not sure who the target is or what it takes to get him. Wilson Ramos is a nice fit, but he will cost and leaves less budget for the bullpen. Yasmani Grandal, who is better defensively than he showed in the postseason, is the cheaper free agent option. But can they afford him while adding relievers.