A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Willy Mays was 5'10" and 170 pounds. He lasted 22 years. Betts might well be of a similar ilk.

 

 

We hope. Mays and Henderson are two of the greatest players ever...

[Dojji]

I have no evidence to back this opinion up, but my guess is smaller players last longer than big bulky ones.

 

Nope. Anecdotally, the big guys tend to stick around as long as anyone else, as long as they don't let themselves get overweight. Having some extra meat on your bones, and especially a good muscle tone around your ligaments, actually helps with longevity, and big guys have an advantage there.

 

The guys I've seen the most injury trouble from have honestly been the really skinny ones. The ones without a lot of natural meat on their bones that have to work all the harder to bulk up and tone up, guys like Clay Buchholz. You seem to need a certain muscle mass to keep the pressure off your ligaments and bone structure.

 

That said I'm gonna worry about Betts' longevity when he gives me a reason to. Right now he's having a lot of fun out there and playing a position that's not particularly strenuous for him, I think he'll last awhile. If he has to move to centerfield or the infield, then it might be OK to worry a bit.

[cp176]

I have no evidence to back this opinion up, but my guess is smaller players last longer than big bulky ones.

 

The only argument I see as being valid on Betts and longevity is the way he plays the game all out. That does increase the odds of multiple injuries or one big one, but I think Fenway's RF may be one of the safest places to play, since you are so far away from any walls and other players or infield collisions.

 

In most sports, my opinion is that to compete on the very highest stage as in being the best smaller athletes are risking more with respect to the energy and effort it takes to overcome a lack of size which quite often means less strength. We are not talking about a middle of the road athlete here - the best. Now my second opinion is that Mookie's size will have nothing to do at all with what the Sox decide to do with him contractually as we move forward. He plays much like Pedroia played which in my estimation means that he will in fact have to deal with injuries moving forward although probably not much different from most great athletes. Assuming that that my become a factor in future negotiations with him, I think is kind of funny.

[moonslav59]

The RF bullpen wall is potentially lethal, but Mookie knows how to navigate it by now.

 

Yes, it can be, as can the foul pole area, but it's so damn far away from the RF'er that there are probably less wall collisions in Fenway's RF than most other parks.

 

Fenway's LF wall and CF triangle are high danger zones.

[moonslav59]

Nope. Anecdotally, the big guys tend to stick around as long as anyone else, as long as they don't let themselves get overweight. Having some extra meat on your bones, and especially a good muscle tone around your ligaments, actually helps with longevity, and big guys have an advantage there.

 

The guys I've seen the most injury trouble from have honestly been the really skinny ones. The ones without a lot of natural meat on their bones that have to work all the harder to bulk up and tone up, guys like Clay Buchholz. You seem to need a certain muscle mass to keep the pressure off your ligaments and bone structure.

 

That said I'm gonna worry about Betts' longevity when he gives me a reason to. Right now he's having a lot of fun out there and playing a position that's not particularly strenuous for him, I think he'll last awhile. If he has to move to centerfield or the infield, then it might be OK to worry a bit.

 

I wouldn't really call Betts "skinny," not that you did. He's in tremendous shape.

[moonslav59]

In most sports, my opinion is that to compete on the very highest stage as in being the best smaller athletes are risking more with respect to the energy and effort it takes to overcome a lack of size which quite often means less strength. We are not talking about a middle of the road athlete here - the best. Now my second opinion is that Mookie's size will have nothing to do at all with what the Sox decide to do with him contractually as we move forward. He plays much like Pedroia played which in my estimation means that he will in fact have to deal with injuries moving forward although probably not much different from most great athletes. Assuming that that my become a factor in future negotiations with him, I think is kind of funny.

 

Good points, as always, but Betts doesn't have to deal with the Machado's of the world trying to take him out.

[Dojji]

I wouldn't really call Betts "skinny," not that you did. He's in tremendous shape.

 

Yeah I wasn't referring the Betts. I was giving an example of guys I've seen a lot of injuries from, and it's usually the bean poles.

 

I know people joke sometimes about this being a fat man's sport, but there's some truth behind the barbs. This is a fast twitch muscle sport, anaerobic rather than aerobic like hockey or basketball, which puts a lot of pressure on the joints and ligaments, and if you have some natural muscle mass in those areas it seems to help a lot. That's one of the reasons you can sometimes see a big heavyset player like Raja or Colon or David Wells back in the day, our our own Big Papi, who can stick around for a surprisingly long time.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Incidentally this trend is good news for guys like Xander Bogaerts who is really well built for a shortstop. In terms of long term deals Bogaerts is probably the best bet for a long career on the team right now.

[notin]

Incidentally this trend is good news for guys like Xander Bogaerts who is really well built for a shortstop. In terms of long term deals Bogaerts is probably the best bet for a long career on the team right now.

 

Except for the dreaded Boras Factor...

[moonslav59]

Yeah I wasn't referring the Betts. I was giving an example of guys I've seen a lot of injuries from, and it's usually the bean poles.

 

I know people joke sometimes about this being a fat man's sport, but there's some truth behind the barbs. This is a fast twitch muscle sport, anaerobic rather than aerobic like hockey or basketball, which puts a lot of pressure on the joints and ligaments, and if you have some natural muscle mass in those areas it seems to help a lot. That's one of the reasons you can sometimes see a big heavyset player like Raja or Colon or David Wells back in the day, our our own Big Papi, who can stick around for a surprisingly long time.

 

You also see guys like Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel play forever.

 

They could probably still play today.

[notin]

You also see guys like Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel play forever.

 

They could probably still play today.

 

Omar Vizque is like 51 years old. Ozzie has to be over 60 by now...

[Bellhorn04]

You also see guys like Ozzie Smith and Omar Vizquel play forever.

 

They could probably still play today.

 

Vizquel probably could still field the position quite decently. He was a beast.

 

I suspect his hitting would be a bit of an issue.

[sk7326]

My hope is that the market is as tight as it was last year, and neither one of those guys gets anywhere close to what is being predicted. Maybe that will give Mookie pause to re-evaluate whether he really wants to hit free agency or not.

 

I too hope the reserve clause comes back. (I keed)

[moonslav59]

Omar Vizque is like 51 years old. Ozzie has to be over 60 by now...

 

Yup. I'm not saying they'd hit .205, but they could probably still field better than Nunez and Holt.

[dgalehouse]

The 2018 Red Sox were a really, really good team. You could say they were a great team. Now the objective should be to keep that team together as much as possible. When we do inevitably lose any of them , the goal should be to find a replacement as close as possible in ability to the lost player. Overall , we can expect a slight drop off in 2019 , but try to keep it to a minimum. No doubt the Yankees are going to be improved in 2019 . Of course, all of this depends on John Henry being willing to write the checks.

[moonslav59]

The 2018 Red Sox were a really, really good team. You could say they were a great team. Now the objective should be to keep that team together as much as possible. When we do inevitably lose any of them , the goal should be to find a replacement as close as possible in ability to the lost player. Overall , we can expect a slight drop off in 2019 , but try to keep it to a minimum. No doubt the Yankees are going to be improved in 2019 . Of course, all of this depends on John Henry being willing to write the checks.

 

I totally agree, but contratcs will sky rocket for some of our younger players nearing final arbs and free agency. I'm not sure Henry is willing to pay for a $300+M budget plus the massive taxes for being over 3 straight years (by 2020).

[dgalehouse]

I totally agree, but contratcs will sky rocket for some of our younger players nearing final arbs and free agency. I'm not sure Henry is willing to pay for a $300+M budget plus the massive taxes for being over 3 straight years (by 2020).

 

It just keeps getting more expensive. No end in sight. Henry has been a willing spender , but I am sure he has his limits. Even the Yankees and Dodgers have their limits.

[moonslav59]

It just keeps getting more expensive. No end in sight. Henry has been a willing spender , but I am sure he has his limits. Even the Yankees and Dodgers have their limits.

 

Yes, and actually this was the only year Henry really blew past the luxury limit. He had previously stayed very close to it, before.

 

Eventually, IMO, he will ask Dd to reset the tax. I think it will be only for one year. Even that year, we could spend just $1 less than the limit and hopefully not be too bad.

[Nick]

It just keeps getting more expensive. No end in sight. Henry has been a willing spender , but I am sure he has his limits. Even the Yankees and Dodgers have their limits.

 

 

Let's cut to the chase, again. What does it cost to be under second tier penalty by a penny?

 

Luxury tax limit will be $206M, $208M and $210M over the next 3 years.

 

For the sake of easy computation, let's put it at $210M and we spend $250M less a penny.

For 2019, we're at 30% penalty for $40M and additional 12.5% surtax on $20M. That works out to $ 14.5M ($12M + $2.5M). Thus the total cost is $264.5M ($240M in payroll/benefits + $14.5M in penalties).

For 2020, we'll be at 50% penalty for $40M and additional 12.5% surtax on $20M. That works out to $22.5M ($20M + $2.5M). Thus the total cost is $272.5M. ($240M in payroll/benefits + $22.5M in penalties).

For 2021, it'll be same as 2020. Total cost is $272.5M.

 

I think Henry can live with the budget of $272.5M.

 

If you can't compete spending $246M, $248M and $250m over the next three years, you need a different GM.

[Nick]

I totally agree, but contratcs will sky rocket for some of our younger players nearing final arbs and free agency. I'm not sure Henry is willing to pay for a $300+M budget plus the massive taxes for being over 3 straight years (by 2020).

 

Are you talking about 2019 or 2020? This is probably the biggest hit year for arbitration with Xander, Betts, JBJ and E Rod. My thought is if Sox wants to keep all four, then we will not sign Sale and extend JD. Something has to give.

[moonslav59]

Are you talking about 2019 or 2020? This is probably the biggest hit year for arbitration with Xander, Betts, JBJ and E Rod. My thought is if Sox wants to keep all four, then we will not sign Sale and extend JD. Something has to give.

 

My position, all along, has been that we re-set after 2020 (so actually, the 2021 season). With that in mind, we may start letting someone go after 2019- like Porcello or Sale...maybe both, but then we might as well just reset after 2019.

 

If we sign Eovaldi to 3-4 years, he's on the books for 2020, and that will mean someone else goes, or we trade him.

 

If we sign Eovaldi and a closer and keep Sale, Porcello, Bogey et all, we'll be over $300M by 2020.

 

Edited December 4, 2018 by moonslav59

[Nick]

My position, all along, has been that we re-set after 2020 (so actually, the 2021 season). With that in mind, we may start letting someone go after 2019- like Porcello or Sale...maybe both, but then we might as well just reset after 2019.

 

If we sign Eovaldi to 3-4 years, he's on the books for 2020, and that will mean someone else goes, or we trade him.

 

If we sign Eovaldi and a closer and keep Sale, Porcello, Bogey et all, we'll be over $300M by 2020.

 

 

Winning the world series requires top line starting pitching in my opinion. This is where I have issues with in deciding who to keep, Sale or Porcello (for 2020). Porcello is a work horse. But I rather have Sale in the playoffs. As I get older, even as a fan, my focus begins to narrow on winning it all. So at my age, 63 and counting, I want the Sox to have top tier talent to go for it. I understand that playoffs can be a crap shoot but my feeling this year was whoever won the AL, would win the World Series. Sorry LA fans. I just didn't think you were good enough to win it all and I DON'T want to feel that way about a Sox team.

 

Either go for it or re-tool and pick another year. I don't want to be the Atlanta Braves of 1990's. We can go for it in 2019 with simpling signing Eovaldi and pick up a closer in July if the pen situation is in disarray or move one of our starters to close. We don't need to do anything else to go for it in 2019. Henry will not squander this opportunity for few measly millions.

 

I hope that he understands no one will give a damn about how much money he had when he died. But millions will remember how many World Series he won as owner of the Sox.

Edited December 4, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Winning the world series requires top line starting pitching in my opinion. This is where I have issues with in deciding who to keep, Sale or Porcello (for 2020). Porcello is a work horse. But I rather have Sale in the playoffs. As I get older, even as a fan, my focus begins to narrow on winning it all. So at my age, 63 and counting, I want the Sox to have top tier talent to go for it. I understand that playoffs can be a crap shoot but my feeling this year was whoever won the AL, would win the World Series. Sorry LA fans. I just didn't think you were good enough to win it all and I DON'T want to feel that way about a Sox team.

 

Either go for it or re-tool and pick another year. I don't want to be the Atlanta Braves of 1990's. We can go for it in 2019 with simpling signing Eovaldi and pick up a closer in July if the pen situation is in disarray or move one of our starters to close. We don't need to do anything else to go for it in 2019. Henry will not squander this opportunity for few measly millions.

 

I agree, and that's why I'm fine with DD's approach of sacrificing the future for win(s) now. Go through a rebuilding period (hopefully just 1-2 years) and be back on top again.

[Kimmi]

Haven't we learned the lesson about how doing one thing that does not work out does not mean never try it again.

 

Large contracts have repeatedly been proven to not work.

[Kimmi]

Which is why sandavol smiles widely when he think about boston’s Baseball operations department!

 

Amen sister!

[Kimmi]

Logical Larry. Sometimes I think he's just trolling us.

 

Perhaps, but he does post a lot of stuff that I agree with.

[Kimmi]

Nobody does, ken. Not even the owners and the GM's, I bet. So what do you do, just let Mookie play his prime years somewhere else?

 

Unfortunately, yes. But to clarify, most of the years of a 10 year contract will be past prime years.

[moonslav59]

Unfortunately, yes. But to clarify, most of the years of a 10 year contract will be past prime years.

 

How many of those 8+ year deals were given to 28 year olds?

[Larry Cook]

Seems like a possible solution to avoid the large long term contracts is to keep the farm system producing players.

[jacksonianmarch]

Seems like a possible solution to avoid the large long term contracts is to keep the farm system producing players.

 

And that is a legitimate argument. My question for you Larry is, would you take a 5 year run of consistent winning with at least 1 title knowing you'd have a 3 year or so down phase where you didn't win?