A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Projected arb costs for 2019:

 

$19.5M Betts (2nd or 3 arbs)

$11.25M Bogey (3 of 3)

$8.75M JBJ (3 of 4)

$4.25M ERod (2 of 4)

$3.5M Holt (3 of 3)

$3.25M Barnes (1 of 3)

$3M Leon (3 of 4)

$3M Wright (2 of 3)

$2.75M Thornburg (3 of 3)

$1.25M Hembree (1 of 3)

$975K Workman (2 of 3)

$950K Swihart (1 of 4)

 

First arb in 2020:

Beni & marco Hernandez

 

First arb in 2021:

Devers, Brasier, R Scott

 

 

moon, I don't know if you caught this, but look at how these arb projections changed since your first post on this thread. Here are the projections from that post on Oct. 29:

 

18.7 Mookie Betts

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Blake Swihart

[moonslav59]

moon, I don't know if you caught this, but look at how these arb projections changed since your first post on this thread. Here are the projections from that post on Oct. 29:

 

18.7 Mookie Betts

11.9 Xander Bogaerts

7.9 Jackie Bradley Jr.

4.8 Eduardo Rodriguez

3.4 Brock Holt

2.3 Tyler Thornburg

2.3 Sandy Leon

1.5 Matt Barnes

1.4 Brandon Workman

1.4 Steven Wright

1.2 Heath Hembree

1.1 Blake Swihart

 

Yes, some changed quite a bit. All in all, the totals are not that far apart.

[sk7326]

Would losing Mookie create more of a cliff than tying $300+ million up in a single player would?

 

That is a fair question - and now you start wandering out of efficient team building vs franchise players and so forth. Ultimately with Betts I'd prefer a long deal with an opt-out (like the Price deal).

[moonslav59]

If we didn't have Price's contract on the books, it might be a lot easier to commit $300M to Betts, but it is what it is.

 

It's a tough call, and I think we can try to get a little creative on ways to lessen the AVV for tax purposes, but to me, he's worth the big contract.

[sk7326]

If we didn't have Price's contract on the books, it might be a lot easier to commit $300M to Betts, but it is what it is.

 

It's a tough call, and I think we can try to get a little creative on ways to lessen the AVV for tax purposes, but to me, he's worth the big contract.

 

The trick with Betts is that he will be 29 on opening day of his next contract. Now, that is certainly young for a UFA ... but there is a question of how much peak you are buying. In that way a Bogaerts extension is a potentially less risky. Betts is obviously a better player but Bogaerts will be buying more premium years.

[moonslav59]

The trick with Betts is that he will be 29 on opening day of his next contract. Now, that is certainly young for a UFA ... but there is a question of how much peak you are buying. In that way a Bogaerts extension is a potentially less risky. Betts is obviously a better player but Bogaerts will be buying more premium years.

 

If you give Betts 10 years now by buying out his arb years, maybe he takes it.

 

Even if you wait until age 29, I think you can pretty much count on 5-6 very good to excellent years, 2-3 good ones and maybe 2-3 decent ones.

 

He seems to have the kind of swing and quick reflexes that age well.

[kenmeister]

 

He seems to have the kind of swing and quick reflexes that age well.

 

Personally I'm a poor judge of that. I thought Youkilis with his mastery of the strike zone would last forever, like Jason Giambi.

[moonslav59]

Personally I'm a poor judge of that. I thought Youkilis with his mastery of the strike zone would last forever, like Jason Giambi.

 

It's certainly not an exact science, and even if it was, I'm not expert on it, but it just feels like Betts will age well. He's in great shape, and his "twitch reflexes" are off the charts great.

[Nick]

It's certainly not an exact science, and even if it was, I'm not expert on it, but it just feels like Betts will age well. He's in great shape, and his "twitch reflexes" are off the charts great.

 

Betts will be making close to if not over $25M by the time of his 3rd arbitration raise. That amount is already baked into our budget. What's another $10M if we are rebuilding a team around him in 2021? What's the famous line in movie Rounders? "Pay that man his money."

 

We need for Chavis to be a major league starter by 2020. We need our farm system to fortify our pen. Hell, every pitcher we have is is being converted to the pen. That should be the area we can go cheap. You can't pay everyone $20M.

Edited November 29, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Betts will be making close to if not over $25M by the time of his 3rd arbitration raise. That amount is already baked into our budget. What's another $10M if we are rebuilding a team around him in 2021? What's the famous line in movie Rounders? "Pay that man his money."

 

We need for Chavis to be a major league starter by 2020. We need our farm system to fortify our pen. Hell, every pitcher we have is is being converted to the pen. That should be the area we can go cheap. You can't pay everyone $20M.

 

Let's say Betts wants $30M x 10. If we sign him now, we can make it $29M x 12 and save $1M on the luxury tax for 10 years, starting in 2021. He gains by starting to get money more in the front end- better for him, and he gets security from an injury before he reaches free agency.

 

We take a bigger risk, but save on the back-end- long run.

[sk7326]

Personally I'm a poor judge of that. I thought Youkilis with his mastery of the strike zone would last forever, like Jason Giambi.

 

His body fell apart. It's that simple.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's say Betts wants $30M x 10. If we sign him now, we can make it $29M x 12 and save $1M on the luxury tax for 10 years, starting in 2021. He gains by starting to get money more in the front end- better for him, and he gets security from an injury before he reaches free agency.

 

We take a bigger risk, but save on the back-end- long run.

 

Betts has already said he's quite interested to see what Machado and Harper get. So we should soon get a pretty good idea what he'll be asking for.

[sk7326]

Betts has already said he's quite interested to see what Machado and Harper get. So we should soon get a pretty good idea what he'll be asking for.

 

Same here - not just in salary but structure. Both of them are young enough that they might want to get deals with opt outs after 4 years or something to take a swing again.

[moonslav59]

If I had to guess, I'd say we keep Porcello & Betts and let Bogey and Sale go.

 

JBJ is borderline.

 

JD is a tough call. I'm still not sure a DH gets much more than his current salary, so maybe we can keep him at close to the same cost. $25M or so could mean JD or Bogey- not both.

[Bellhorn04]

If I had to guess, I'd say we keep Porcello & Betts and let Bogey and Sale go.

 

JBJ is borderline.

 

JD is a tough call. I'm still not sure a DH gets much more than his current salary, so maybe we can keep him at close to the same cost. $25M or so could mean JD or Bogey- not both.

 

Yeah, I hate to say it, but it might be better if JD has somewhat of an off-year, lessening the appeal of opting out. It's a crazy way to think, but that's what all these opt-outs and other crap do to you.

[Bellhorn04]

There's also the chance that JD is given an extension before opting out, with a slight upgrade to his ticket, like Kershaw. Edited November 29, 2018 by Bellhorn04

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I hate to say it, but it might be better if JD has somewhat of an off-year, lessening the appeal of opting out. It's a crazy way to think, but that's what all these opt-outs and other crap do to you.

 

How valuable is he as an OF'er as he ages? That might be the big factor.

 

If he's viewed as pretty much a DH-only kind of player, then he may not get much more after an opt out.

[notin]

There's also the chance that JD is given an extension before opting out, with a slight upgrade to his ticket, like Kershaw.

 

That doesn’t sound like something Scott Boras would do...

[Bellhorn04]

That doesn’t sound like something Scott Boras would do...

 

Boras doesn't always make the decisions for his clients.

[notin]

Boras doesn't always make the decisions for his clients.

 

He never does. But they do retain him for his advice and negotiating skills. And he typically doesn’t advise them to sign an extension without seeing every possible offer...

[Bellhorn04]

He never does. But they do retain him for his advice and negotiating skills. And he typically doesn’t advise them to sign an extension without seeing every possible offer...

 

Why couldn't JDM feel the same way as Kershaw? Kershaw stayed where he was comfortable. Maybe JDM really likes where he is and playing for Cora? I'm just throwing it out there. There's a spectrum of possibilities.

[Kimmi]

It's certainly not an exact science, and even if it was, I'm not expert on it, but it just feels like Betts will age well. He's in great shape, and his "twitch reflexes" are off the charts great.

 

Most people said the same thing about Price when we were getting ready to sign him, that he is a pitcher that would age well. The second year into the contract and he was dealing with some serious elbow issues. He seems to have overcome that with his 'magic, self-healing elbow', but who knows for sure?

 

Bottom line: Those huge, long term contracts are just too risky.

[Kimmi]

Betts has already said he's quite interested to see what Machado and Harper get. So we should soon get a pretty good idea what he'll be asking for.

 

My hope is that the market is as tight as it was last year, and neither one of those guys gets anywhere close to what is being predicted. Maybe that will give Mookie pause to re-evaluate whether he really wants to hit free agency or not.

[Bellhorn04]

There's a public relations factor with Mookie along with the baseball factor. He's a guy who adds charisma to the team. That's worth money in itself.

[Kimmi]

Yeah, I hate to say it, but it might be better if JD has somewhat of an off-year, lessening the appeal of opting out. It's a crazy way to think, but that's what all these opt-outs and other crap do to you.

 

I would rather have JD opt out than have the Sox re-negotiate his contract for more guaranteed years.

[oldtimer]

Most people said the same thing about Price when we were getting ready to sign him, that he is a pitcher that would age well. The second year into the contract and he was dealing with some serious elbow issues. He seems to have overcome that with his 'magic, self-healing elbow', but who knows for sure?

 

Bottom line: Those huge, long term contracts are just too risky.

 

Totally agree. I think there is a difference in what is appropriate in length for young players, players just at their prime and players well past their prime. Clearly a longer term contract for Betts makes more sense then for Pedroia as a for instance.

[Kimmi]

Why couldn't JDM feel the same way as Kershaw? Kershaw stayed where he was comfortable. Maybe JDM really likes where he is and playing for Cora? I'm just throwing it out there. There's a spectrum of possibilities.

 

I really wish more players accepted contracts for reasons other than getting the most money.

[Kimmi]

There's a public relations factor with Mookie along with the baseball factor. He's a guy who adds charisma to the team. That's worth money in itself.

 

I can agree with this to a certain extent.

[Bellhorn04]

I really wish more players accepted contracts for reasons other than getting the most money.

 

Steve Pearce just did.

[Kimmi]

Totally agree. I think there is a difference in what is appropriate in length for young players, players just at their prime and players well past their prime. Clearly a longer term contract for Betts makes more sense then for Pedroia as a for instance.

 

I think you and I are mostly on the same page when it comes to long term contracts. If there were a player who I'd give a 10 year contract to, it would be Mookie. But as good as he is, I still couldn't do that.