A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[dgalehouse]

We didn't sign Kimbrel.

 

I was firmly against the trade that sent 4 prospects for a closer making free agent market money at the time of the trade.

 

I still think we could have done better, but I'm not complaining about the results.

 

I have no beef with mortgaging the future, if you get a ring.

 

Margot , Asuaje and Guerra were our future ? Now , three years , three A.L. East titles and one Word Series Championship later , not one of them could even crack our lineup.

Edited November 7, 2018 by dgalehouse

[kenmeister]

Some fans are getting a little carried away. Need to be level headed and sensible here. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 1.90. Assuming he leaves , we need a quality replacement. In five years with the Sox , Barnes' ERA is 4.14 , and Kelly' s is 4.33. More than double the ERA of Kimbrel. Barnes and Kelly were much maligned through most of the season. Now , suddenly , they are the answer ? I think we need to look elsewhere for a more experienced closer with a better track record. Perhaps Britton or Familia. Then , if Barnes and Kelly ( assuming we sign him ) can be consistently effective, we can give them a shot.

 

I'm cautiously optimistic that one of Barnes, Kelly, or Brasier can step up and perform the job. But old friend Andrew Miller is a FA again too I believe.

[Slasher9]

I agree. My guess would be he makes an early offer to Kimbrel, more like 4/70 than 5/100, and if that doesn't do it he'll look elsewhere.

 

He's certainly not thinking the 2018 bullpen minus Kimbrel and Kelly will be good enough.

 

that 4/70 contract will be the new pablo contract....

[Dojji]

Disagree. Kimbrel had an offf year by his standards this year and still did more than enough to prevent the closer's role from becoming an issue.

 

Every closer will blow a game or two and have a few other games nearly get out of hand. That's true of anyone. Kimbrel might have been a heart attack closer last year but he was an asset, not a liability, and there's little reason to expect that to change. Heck, he might improve closer to career levels.

 

You are not going to find an upgrade to that guy on the FA list. I don't care if you're personally comfortable with him, he is objectively one of the best closers out there and you aren't going to manage to upgrade at closer by replacing him with any currently available option, internal or external.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Dojji

[mvp 78]

that 4/70 contract will be the new pablo contract....

 

If Pablo was actually productive and played.

[Dojji]

If Pablo was productive and played, he might have even been worth the money.

 

Sadly Pablo's "belts busted" statistic widely exceeds any other statistical contribution he made while here. He would have been a bad deal if we got him for free. Not comparable to an actually highly productive player you go a couple ticks past your spending limit for.

[mvp 78]

If Pablo was productive and played, he might have even been worth the money.

 

That's what my post infers.

[Dojji]

Forgive me, my setting on the subtlety meter is somewhere between "fists made of literally ham" and "bull in the china shop."

[mvp 78]

Forgive me, my setting on the subtlety meter is somewhere between "fists made of literally ham" and "bull in the china shop."

 

It's a shame that Pablo and Hanley didn't work out. They would have been fun as hell to watch.

[Bellhorn04]

that 4/70 contract will be the new pablo contract....

 

FWIW, Cafardo in the Globe today says he thinks the Sox are moving on from Kimbrel and that their top priority is Eovaldi.

[Slasher9]

If Pablo was actually productive and played.

 

closers lose it fast. i think we have witnessed KC losing it. just my opinion. i hope we stay far far away from offering him a contract.

[Slasher9]

FWIW, Cafardo in the Globe today says he thinks the Sox are moving on from Kimbrel and that their top priority is Eovaldi.

 

i got that indication when DD got off the duckboat and said braz or kelly can close in 2019.

i am all for signing starting pitching.

[notin]

Disagree. Kimbrel had an offf year by his standards this year and still did more than enough to prevent the closer's role from becoming an issue.

 

Every closer will blow a game or two and have a few other games nearly get out of hand. That's true of anyone. Kimbrel might have been a heart attack closer last year but he was an asset, not a liability, and there's little reason to expect that to change. Heck, he might improve closer to career levels.

 

You are not going to find an upgrade to that guy on the FA list. I don't care if you're personally comfortable with him, he is objectively one of the best closers out there and you aren't going to manage to upgrade at closer by replacing him with any currently available option, internal or external.

 

It’s not a question of whether or not he’s been a great closer. The question is, will he continue to be one for the next 5 years, and to learn the answer can cost up to $100mill.

 

And even if the answer is yes, how important is it for the Sox to have the closer position locked up through 2023 when the team could stand to lose so many much more important players, including Betts, Bogaerts, Bradley, and Sale, among others.

 

They can get another closer and probably will. Closer might not be the best use of what could be limited resources this off-season...

[Kimmi]

FWIW, Cafardo in the Globe today says he thinks the Sox are moving on from Kimbrel and that their top priority is Eovaldi.

 

Good.

 

Eovaldi should be a priority over Kimbrel.

[moonslav59]

Margot , Asuaje and Guerra were our future ? Now , three years , three A.L. East titles and one Word Series Championship later , not one of them could even crack our lineup.

 

Where did I say I thought we should have kept them?

 

I was on the record at the time and ever since, that I thought we could have done better. Those prospects were worth a lot back then. The fact that they haven't done all that well, does not mean other teams did not want them back then.

 

My biggest beef was on the philosophy of trading so many prospects for a player making FA type money.

 

Tears afterward, I said the trade looked better as closer contracts sky-rocketed and made Kimbrel's contract no longer "FA market rate." I even credited DD for foreseeing the sharp increase in FA closer salaries.

[moonslav59]

It was a very favorable contract, though, that can't be overlooked. If Kimbrel was a free agent that year, you certainly weren't getting him for guaranteed money of only $25 million. It just so happens there were no other closers on the free agent market that year so there are no simple comps. But we know what Chapman and Jansen got the following year.

 

See my previous email.

 

At the time, Kimbrel was one of MLB's top paid closer.

 

The trade looked better afterward, when salaries sky-rocketed, but he was still paid a lot.

 

My dislike of the trade had nothing to do with Kimbrel. I said at the time, he was a top 3 closer and rated to continue being a top 3-5 closer for the remainder of his contract (which he came close to doing until this year).

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

closers lose it fast. i think we have witnessed KC losing it. just my opinion. i hope we stay far far away from offering him a contract.

 

Agreed.

 

He may go on to have many great years, unlike most closers his age, but the risk reward is just too much, and we have too many other needs.

[Dojji]

closers lose it fast. i think we have witnessed KC losing it. just my opinion. i hope we stay far far away from offering him a contract.

 

Not even close. His walks were up a tick but every other number was within striking distance of his career averages.

 

Don't get carried away in the narrative. Even with a bit of wildness this year, Kimbrel was in the top 3-4 closers out there, and replacing him with "a better one" is a ridiculous idea.

 

Sometimes I think people want to have all the talent in the world and pay for none of it. What am I saying, of course they do, we all do, but what I mean is people actually think they can get it.

[Dojji]

Agreed.

 

He may go on to have many great years, unlike most closers his age, but the risk reward is just too much, and we have too many other needs.

 

What needs would those be?

 

The only other position with a question mark on it right now is first base. We'll probably break camp with starters in the bullpen, Brandon Workman wouldn't be fighting for a job in any other baseball franchise in the entire freaking universe, our catcher tandem isn't going anywhere, our outfield is legendary, our infield is improving defensively and likely to at least hold steady offensively.

 

So tell me, where are all these other needs? Sure in the next few years we're going to have to pay some people, but the dead money coming off the books is going to help us there so there's no excuse for being penny wise and pound foolish on a position that everyone likes to pretend doesn't matter right up until the moment that it suddenly does.

 

Let me tell you what's going to happen if Kimbrel walks: The "closer conversation" is going to dominate the board for the entire next season plus. Because replacing an elite closer is NOT easy, you can NOT just plug any random arm in there, and if you have any doubts on the subject just ask the 2015 Mets how unimportant the closer's role is, especially once the playoffs roll around and every lead matters.

 

I mean if you're not planning to win the World Series, sure, go nuts. play fast and loose with the closer's role and see what it gets you. But we are planning to win the World Series, and I'm beginning to feel like I'm the only guy in the room who remembers why Keith Foulke was on the roster in 2004 -- and what the inability to hold a 1 run lead meant to the team in 2003.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Dojji

[Bellhorn04]

At the time, Kimbrel was one of MLB's top paid closer.

 

The trade looked better afterward, when salaries sky-rocketed, but he was still paid a lot.

 

 

His annual salary was close to the top, that's true.

 

But it was very favorable in other respects. The guarantee was only about 25 million. That's only about half of Papelbon's and Robertson's guaranteed deals.

 

Plus the team option for a third year.

 

That's a very team-friendly arrangement.

[cp176]

We didn't sign Kimbrel.

 

I was firmly against the trade that sent 4 prospects for a closer making free agent market money at the time of the trade.

 

I still think we could have done better, but I'm not complaining about the results.

 

I have no beef with mortgaging the future, if you get a ring.

 

We traded for Kimbrel but we didn't sign him? Was he playing for us? I think that your point is that we just gave up too much for him. I think about what we gave up and yes I am that guy who is laughing. We got in return for those that we traded one of if not the best closer in the game for how many years again? If this is a comment once again about how all of those assets could have been used differently ... (that is for you notin) - my oh my! Give me a jingle when one of those guys becomes an impact player. This was a decision that you don't agree with I guess. I'm going with DD's take on this one. it worked.

I call a big bag of ******** on all of those who constantly make these little nagging stabs at a GM who got it done. You know who you are - 1. He destroyed the farm just ripped it to pieces! What really was there to begin with? He just can't build a bullpen - Look what he did in Detroit - Ok right. Where is Detroit once again? How about that David Price contract right. He has mortgaged the future right. Well if you were planning our future based around the players he traded, your future likely would not have amounted to much.

[cp176]

It's a shame that Pablo and Hanley didn't work out. They would have been fun as hell to watch.

 

why would those two dopes have been fun to watch?

[notin]

I call a big bag of ******** on all of those who constantly make these little nagging stabs at a GM who got it done. You know who you are - 1. He destroyed the farm just ripped it to pieces! What really was there to begin with? He just can't build a bullpen - Look what he did in Detroit - Ok right. Where is Detroit once again? How about that David Price contract right. He has mortgaged the future right. Well if you were planning our future based around the players he traded, your future likely would not have amounted to much.

 

Remember, folks. No disparaging comments about Dombrowski in front of cp176. It makes him cranky.

 

Lighten up. Every GM gets criticized on this and every other Sox board on the entire internet. Dombrowski has a great year, but bear in mind the last Sox GM who didn’t “get it done” was Dan Duquette...

[moonslav59]

What needs would those be?

 

The only other position with a question mark on it right now is first base. We'll probably break camp with starters in the bullpen, Brandon Workman wouldn't be fighting for a job in any other baseball franchise in the entire freaking universe, our catcher tandem isn't going anywhere, our outfield is legendary, our infield is improving defensively and likely to at least hold steady offensively.

 

So tell me, where are all these other needs? Sure in the next few years we're going to have to pay some people, but the dead money coming off the books is going to help us there so there's no excuse for being penny wise and pound foolish on a position that everyone likes to pretend doesn't matter right up until the moment that it suddenly does.

 

Let me tell you what's going to happen if Kimbrel walks: The "closer conversation" is going to dominate the board for the entire next season plus. Because replacing an elite closer is NOT easy, you can NOT just plug any random arm in there, and if you have any doubts on the subject just ask the 2015 Mets how unimportant the closer's role is, especially once the playoffs roll around and every lead matters.

 

I mean if you're not planning to win the World Series, sure, go nuts. play fast and loose with the closer's role and see what it gets you. But we are planning to win the World Series, and I'm beginning to feel like I'm the only guy in the room who remembers why Keith Foulke was on the roster in 2004 -- and what the inability to hold a 1 run lead meant to the team in 2003.

 

Our other big needs are solid set-up man or men, especially if we don't get a closer and move one of our guys up, SP'er and 1B who hits lefties.

 

It's my opinion that we should not spend so much on a closer, especially one who is showing serious signs of decline or consistency.

 

I realize not getting a top closer (on paper) might bite us in the ass, but I think signing Kimbrel to 4+ year rates to bite us harder (maybe not in 2019).

 

I respect your opinion, and if Henry will not let Kimbrel's contratc keep him from keeping our stars, then I'm fine with signing everyone and everybody.

 

[moonslav59]

We traded for Kimbrel but we didn't sign him? Was he playing for us? I think that your point is that we just gave up too much for him. I think about what we gave up and yes I am that guy who is laughing. We got in return for those that we traded one of if not the best closer in the game for how many years again? If this is a comment once again about how all of those assets could have been used differently ... (that is for you notin) - my oh my! Give me a jingle when one of those guys becomes an impact player. This was a decision that you don't agree with I guess. I'm going with DD's take on this one. it worked.

I call a big bag of ******** on all of those who constantly make these little nagging stabs at a GM who got it done. You know who you are - 1. He destroyed the farm just ripped it to pieces! What really was there to begin with? He just can't build a bullpen - Look what he did in Detroit - Ok right. Where is Detroit once again? How about that David Price contract right. He has mortgaged the future right. Well if you were planning our future based around the players he traded, your future likely would not have amounted to much.

 

I give up.

 

You guys keep inventing a position I do and did not hold- ever.

 

[Dojji]

Our other big needs are solid set-up man or men

 

Not an actual need, setup innings were not a problem for us this season and I don't see that changing.

 

SP'er

 

With the arms we already have this is more of a luxury and far less pressing of a need than keeping the closer's role strong. As it is we'll probably break camp with a starter in the bullpen. A depth arm we can stash in AAA is the sum total of our needs in this area.

 

and 1B who hits lefties.

 

You're not going to get much of an upgrade on what we have now for just money. The free agent market at first base is HELLA weak this year. So if you're going to have to promote from within or acquire a guy in trade, 1B is not the reason not to spend money on closing.

 

It's my opinion that we should not spend so much on a closer, especially one who is showing serious signs of decline or consistency.

 

Where is your evidence that this is happening to Kimbrel?

 

I

realize not getting a top closer (on paper) might bite us in the ass, but I think signing Kimbrel to 4+ year rates to bite us harder (maybe not in 2019).

 

I respect your opinion, and if Henry will not let Kimbrel's contratc keep him from keeping our stars, then I'm fine with signing everyone and everybody.

 

[/b]

 

Lemme let you in on a secret. It's a lot easier to put up with a closer in decline than it is to find one when all the good ones are on other peoples' payrolls. One gets you a few years of a Jonathan Papelbon who's still strong willed and intelligent but has lost a bit off his heater and isn't quite the unstoppable force he once was. The other gets you Andrew Bailey.

 

I know what I'd choose given those choices.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

You see, Moonslav, we've had this conversation before regarding the closer's role, with people on your side of the argument all too eager to move on from the contemptible familiarity of Papelbon, and try new option s not so much because new options were objectively better but more because they were tired of the old one and used parsimony to excuse their boredom.

 

And if we hadn't gotten incredibly lucky with Koji Uehara in the following season that decision would have ranked among the greatest boondoggles in recent Red Sox history, right along with another decision in the same year, to hire Bobby Valentine as manager. The bullpen was in freefall until Koji stood up. And there was no particular reason why he should have been expected to stand up, or that his body shouldn't have fallen apart almost immediately on him when he did. Again, just to drive the point home -- we got stupidly lucky.

 

And meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon was worth every penny of the contract he ended up signing with Philidelphia.

 

My question, in a nutshell, is this. How much are you prepared to risk in order to pay slightly less for an inferior closer? The elite relief arms always get paid, meaning you're going to be trying to pull a gem out of your butt or you're going to try to promote a setup guy. Either way the odds of actually upgrading at the closer's role over a guy who's been top 5 each of the last few seasons are microscopic, and the decision fails a basic cost-benefit analysis.

 

If I have to weigh the costs and benefits of sticking with a guy who's still getting it done and gambling he continues effective over the next 3-4 years over the odds that a career middle reliver suddenly catches lightning in a bottle, or that a guy picked up off the trash heap doesn't turn out to be actually trash, I know which odds I favor. We aren't the Tampa Bay Rays. We don't have to settle for cut-rate closers.

[moonslav59]

You see, Moonslav, we've had this conversation before regarding the closer's role, with people on your side of the argument all too eager to move on from the contemptible familiarity of Papelbon, and try new option s not so much because new options were objectively better but more because they were tired of the old one and used parsimony to excuse their boredom.

 

And if we hadn't gotten incredibly lucky with Koji Uehara in the following season that decision would have ranked among the greatest boondoggles in recent Red Sox history, right along with another decision in the same year, to hire Bobby Valentine as manager. The bullpen was in freefall until Koji stood up. And there was no particular reason why he should have been expected to stand up, or that his body shouldn't have fallen apart almost immediately on him when he did. Again, just to drive the point home -- we got stupidly lucky.

 

And meanwhile, Jonathan Papelbon was worth every penny of the contract he ended up signing with Philidelphia.

 

My question, in a nutshell, is this. How much are you prepared to risk in order to pay slightly less for an inferior closer? The elite relief arms always get paid, meaning you're going to be trying to pull a gem out of your butt or you're going to try to promote a setup guy. Either way the odds of actually upgrading at the closer's role over a guy who's been top 5 each of the last few seasons are microscopic, and the decision fails a basic cost-benefit analysis.

 

If I have to weigh the costs and benefits of sticking with a guy who's still getting it done and gambling he continues effective over the next 3-4 years over the odds that a career middle reliver suddenly catches lightning in a bottle, or that a guy picked up off the trash heap doesn't turn out to be actually trash, I know which odds I favor. We aren't the Tampa Bay Rays. We don't have to settle for cut-rate closers.

 

I look back at the Papelbon walk and smile.

 

Yes, he had some nice years, but he cost a lot and became a burden at the end.

 

Yes, Koji could be considered luck by some, but he wasn't. Also, nobody is calling Eovaldi and Pearce luck.

 

Koji had awesome numbers before Ben traded for him. It wasn't Ben's fault that Farrell had him as our 3rd or 4th closer on the depth chart. It reminds me of my days at ND, when Dan Devine had Joe Montana as our 3rd string QB the year we won the National Championship vs Earl Campbell's Longhorns.

 

Koji before the trade:

 

Year WHIP/K-9

'10 0.955/11.3

'11 0.723/11.9

'12 0.639/10.8

 

These numbers are mind-boggling great. It wasn't luck that he continued his improvement to 0.565/12.2 in 2013 and then had 3 straight years under 0.957 and above 10.5.

 

[moonslav59]

How much are you prepared to risk in order to pay slightly less for an inferior closer?

 

I'm not prepared to let Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Sale or JD walk, because our budget is too tight due, in part to Kimbrel's contract.

 

Again, I'm assuming we have a limit, and we will reset by 2021 (maybe 2022 at the latest).

 

If I am wrong, then sign 'em all.

[cp176]

I give up.

 

You guys keep inventing a position I do and did not hold- ever.

 

 

what the hell do you mean you guys??? it's all me and that's it!!! lol