A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[moonslav59]

I don't like Allen. I'd rather Miller or Kelly.

 

My thought is we may be looking to reset the luxury tax after 2020, and DD might avoid 3+ year contracts.

 

If not, then Eovaldi and Kelly would be more than fine to me.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, if we are looking to reset after 2 years, we load up on 1-2 year deals:

 

M Harvey

Allen

Herrera

Pearce

[oldtimer]

My thought is we may be looking to reset the luxury tax after 2020, and DD might avoid 3+ year contracts.

 

If not, then Eovaldi and Kelly would be more than fine to me.

 

Cora likes guys with velocity. Kelly and Eovaldi both fit that criterion.

[moonslav59]

Cora likes guys with velocity. Kelly and Eovaldi both fit that criterion.

 

I'd love to see them both back, but there are other players on the market and cost & years might be an issue.

[moonslav59]

Possible FAs to sign, if we are looking to reset in 2 years (2020):

 

$16M x 2 Charlie Morton

$12M x 2 Gio Gonzalez

$11M x 2 Matt Harvey

$11M x 2 Trevor Cahill

$11M x 2 Anibal Sanchez (Nope)

$10M x 2 Daniel Murphy

$10M x 1 Brian Dozier

$9M x 2 DJ LeMahieu

$9M x 2 Joakim Soria

$8M x 2 Mike Moustakas

$8M x 2 Lance Lynn

$8M x 2 Cody Allen

$8M x 1 Kelvin Herrera

$6M x 2 Bud Norris

$6M x 2 Brad Brach

$6M x 1 Ervin Santana

$5M x 2 Garrett Richards

$5M x 2 Jesse Chavez

$4M x 2 Martin Maldanado or Kurt Suzuki

??? Steve Pearce

[notin]

Cora likes guys with velocity. Kelly and Eovaldi both fit that criterion.

 

I don’t know about Cora, but Dombrowski definitely likes radar gun readings...

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t know about Cora, but Dombrowski definitely likes radar gun readings...

 

Are you suggesting that he likes them more than other GM's? Or that he likes them too much?

[oldtimer]

I don’t know about Cora, but Dombrowski definitely likes radar gun readings...

 

Cora actually was quoted saying that when making his BP selection for the WS.

[Kimmi]

You cannot make predictions about 2019 until you’ve got a reasonably good idea of what your roster will look like. I think the Sox will be good, but I have no idea who is moving on, coming in or what the spending will amount to. If they retain Eo, build up the back end of the pen and don’t have any mystery surgeries, then I’d agree

 

The 2019 team will be more or less the same as the 2018 team. Some tweaks, but nothing major. I won't say that we'll win 100 games again, but I would be highly surprised if we're not back in the playoffs.

[Dojji]

Cora actually was quoted saying that when making his BP selection for the WS.

 

The basketball analogy is "you can't teach height."

 

You can't teach velocity. Generally speaking, with a few surgical exceptions, an athlete's velocity at any given time is as hard a physical limit as his height.

[Nick]

Possible FAs to sign, if we are looking to reset in 2 years (2020):

 

$16M x 2 Charlie Morton

$12M x 2 Gio Gonzalez

$11M x 2 Matt Harvey

$11M x 2 Trevor Cahill

$11M x 2 Anibal Sanchez (Nope)

$10M x 2 Daniel Murphy

$10M x 1 Brian Dozier

$9M x 2 DJ LeMahieu

$9M x 2 Joakim Soria

$8M x 2 Mike Moustakas

$8M x 2 Lance Lynn

$8M x 2 Cody Allen

$8M x 1 Kelvin Herrera

$6M x 2 Bud Norris

$6M x 2 Brad Brach

$6M x 1 Ervin Santana

$5M x 2 Garrett Richards

$5M x 2 Jesse Chavez

$4M x 2 Martin Maldanado or Kurt Suzuki

??? Steve Pearce

 

Or you can front load the contract with opt out after 2 years. Of course you r screwed if performance goes down or in case of in injury.

 

Give Eovaldi 5 yer $75M. Pay out $18M, $18M, $13M thereafter.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Or you can front load the contract with opt out after 2 years. Of course you r screwed if performance goes down or in case of in injury.

 

Give Eovaldi 5 yer $75M. Pay out $18M, $18M, $13M thereafter.

 

Good point.

 

Or, if Eovaldi gets the $60M/4 that MLBTR projects, we could maybe offer...

 

$20M

$20M

$10M

$10M

 

Wecould probably trade him after year 2, unless like you said, thins go badly.

 

Maybe some of the projected 3 year players might take 2 with an option:

 

3 year projected

$48M Happ

$36M W Ramos

$33M Familia

$33M Britton

$33M Robertson

$33M Ryu

$30M Ottavino

$30M Lowrie

$27M A Miller

 

[notin]

Are you suggesting that he likes them more than other GM's? Or that he likes them too much?

 

Let’s just say on more than one occasion, he’s been caught with a scantily clad Bushnell 101911 velocity speed gun...

Edited November 6, 2018 by notin

[kenmeister]

I'd love to see them both back, but there are other players on the market and cost & years might be an issue.

 

Personally, I like keeping guys that show they can play at a high level here in Boston. I think of Clement/Renteria/Melancon and others who couldn't seem to shine here, but did elsewhere. Or guys like Price and Lackey that took a couple years to settle in. Eovaldi and Kelly are already part of this magical team; I think we recognize the "something special" the team has and resign them. But then again, it's not my money.

[moonslav59]

Personally, I like keeping guys that show they can play at a high level here in Boston. I think of Clement/Renteria/Melancon and others who couldn't seem to shine here, but did elsewhere. Or guys like Price and Lackey that took a couple years to settle in. Eovaldi and Kelly are already part of this magical team; I think we recognize the "something special" the team has and resign them. But then again, it's not my money.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us sign Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce.

 

I'm not aware of Henry's spending plans going forward. If he's fine paying mega taxes for 2-3 more years, then great, but if he's looking to re-set after 2020 (or even the more unlikely 2019) season, then I think we need to worry about the length of the deals we sign now. I suppose we could trade the guys we sign, if it helps us keep Betts and others, but it may not be that easy, if these guys do not do all that well.

 

All this speculation would be much easier, if we knew Henry's budget plans going forward into 2021 and beyond.

[Bellhorn04]

Let’s just say on more than one occasion, he’s been caught with a scantily clad Bushnell 101911 velocity speed gun...

 

But you're saying it like it's a bad thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us sign Eovaldi, Kelly and Pearce.

 

I'm not aware of Henry's spending plans going forward. If he's fine paying mega taxes for 2-3 more years, then great, but if he's looking to re-set after 2020 (or even the more unlikely 2019) season, then I think we need to worry about the length of the deals we sign now. I suppose we could trade the guys we sign, if it helps us keep Betts and others, but it may not be that easy, if these guys do not do all that well.

 

All this speculation would be much easier, if we knew Henry's budget plans going forward into 2021 and beyond.

 

He might not even know them himself yet.

 

But speculate we will, by God!

[moonslav59]

He might not even know them himself yet.

 

But speculate we will, by God!

 

I'm pretty sure Henry thinks way ahead, but of course adjustments can be made depending on the situations.

 

I do think he will want to reset the tax within the next 2-3 years, and if that happens, it will be very hard to win the following year.

[SoxnCycles]

I'm okay with a boring offseason because we don't have the glaring needs.

 

I'd rather have boring than have Dombrowski pull of some kind of blockbuster where he trades Bogaerts, Devers, and whoever for a starting pitcher and then signs Machado.

 

Yeah, that's a little too exciting.

Give me boring!

[jacksonianmarch]

It won’t be entirely boring. You’ve got some important FAs to decide on. Even if they leave, it isn’t boring. It’s team turnover.

[notin]

Yeah, that's a little too exciting.

Give me boring!

 

Yes. Boring. We do all hope Xander Bogaerts’ excellent season has tempered any interest DD had in Machado.

 

I do expect DD to bring back Eovaldi, who is very much his type of pitcher and whom he did already trade for once.

 

Barring any trades or DFAs, this would leave the Sox with a full 12 man pitching staff but with no experienced closer. And only maybe $10-15mill to spend before the next CBA limit, which I’m going to assume is a factor. The Sox might bring back Pearce, although this probably leaves $3-8mill for any mid season acquisitions. And a closer. So maybe not.

 

So a trade for a closer could happen. The Sox don’t have much trade bait, but I assume Brian Johnson would go to create space for another pitcher. Other candidates to round out the package include Swihart, Chavis, and Dalbec.

 

For Johnson plus 1 or 2 of these players, maybe the Sox can acquire a Jose Leclerc or Will Smith. Or maybe one of the Brewers’ relievers not named Hader. (Jeremy Jeffress? Corey Knebel?)

 

In both Milwaukee and Texas, Swihart and Chavis/Dalbec might be able to step into starting roles.

 

If Swihart is not in this deal, the Sox might be done. If he is, the Sox probably have one bench spot open for a RHH 1b like Pearce or an actual fourth outfielder (Jon Jay? Gerardo Parra?). But spending a lot probably won’t be the goal here, just in case. Pearce is the bigger need, but he might be difficult if he wants a contract similar to Mitch Moreland’s...

[kenmeister]

Given Sale's issues with being able to start for a full season, is it crazy to think about moving him to closer?

[BillyWilliams]

Given Sale's issues with being able to start for a full season, is it crazy to think about moving him to closer?

 

Yes, that would be crazy......

[oldtimer]

Yes. Boring. We do all hope Xander Bogaerts’ excellent season has tempered any interest DD had in Machado.

 

I do expect DD to bring back Eovaldi, who is very much his type of pitcher and whom he did already trade for once.

 

Barring any trades or DFAs, this would leave the Sox with a full 12 man pitching staff but with no experienced closer. And only maybe $10-15mill to spend before the next CBA limit, which I’m going to assume is a factor. The Sox might bring back Pearce, although this probably leaves $3-8mill for any mid season acquisitions. And a closer. So maybe not.

 

So a trade for a closer could happen. The Sox don’t have much trade bait, but I assume Brian Johnson would go to create space for another pitcher. Other candidates to round out the package include Swihart, Chavis, and Dalbec.

 

For Johnson plus 1 or 2 of these players, maybe the Sox can acquire a Jose Leclerc or Will Smith. Or maybe one of the Brewers’ relievers not named Hader. (Jeremy Jeffress? Corey Knebel?)

 

In both Milwaukee and Texas, Swihart and Chavis/Dalbec might be able to step into starting roles.

 

If Swihart is not in this deal, the Sox might be done. If he is, the Sox probably have one bench spot open for a RHH 1b like Pearce or an actual fourth outfielder (Jon Jay? Gerardo Parra?). But spending a lot probably won’t be the goal here, just in case. Pearce is the bigger need, but he might be difficult if he wants a contract similar to Mitch Moreland’s...

 

1. Xander is a better fit for our team and will cost much less. I seriously doubt if we would even consider Machado.

 

2. I would certainly recommend bringing back Eovaldi but would cap any contract offer at 4 years.

 

3. Kelly seems to have made a transition to become a reliable setup man, if not a closer. I would try to resign him first and then if that fails look at other FA and/or trade deals for a closer. It sounds like Feltman may make the team as a RP some time next year. Wright with his leg problem is an unknown for us at this time. If we do get Eovaldi, we would have 5 starters. If we sign Kelly we would have Barnes, Brasier, Kelly, Hembree, Wright (LR/Starter), Poyner/Johnson, Feltman? Sounds pretty solid as we have 3 candidates for closer there.

 

4. I think we will need Pearce if at all possible for 2019 and it may take a 2 year contract offer to get him. That would leave us with 3 utility guys in Holt, Nunez and Pearce and requires moving back to 2 catchers. If we can hold on to Lin in the minors there would be protection enough.

[notin]

Feltman was in A-ball last year. He shouldn’t be thrust immediately into a key bullpen role, but rather be considered depth. He might be good, but he also might be the second coming of Craig Hansen. Don’t rely on him yet.

 

Also did you DFA Workman? It might happen...

[Bellhorn04]

This offseason might be boring from a Sox perspective, but it'll be interesting to see what the Yanks and other teams do, and to see what Harper and Machado sign for.

[Slasher9]

to see what Harper and Machado sign for.

this is going to be fascinating. i was hoping Clayton would opt out so we could see where that went too.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Boring. We do all hope Xander Bogaerts’ excellent season has tempered any interest DD had in Machado.

 

I do expect DD to bring back Eovaldi, who is very much his type of pitcher and whom he did already trade for once.

 

Barring any trades or DFAs, this would leave the Sox with a full 12 man pitching staff but with no experienced closer. And only maybe $10-15mill to spend before the next CBA limit, which I’m going to assume is a factor. The Sox might bring back Pearce, although this probably leaves $3-8mill for any mid season acquisitions. And a closer. So maybe not.

 

So a trade for a closer could happen. The Sox don’t have much trade bait, but I assume Brian Johnson would go to create space for another pitcher. Other candidates to round out the package include Swihart, Chavis, and Dalbec.

 

For Johnson plus 1 or 2 of these players, maybe the Sox can acquire a Jose Leclerc or Will Smith. Or maybe one of the Brewers’ relievers not named Hader. (Jeremy Jeffress? Corey Knebel?)

 

In both Milwaukee and Texas, Swihart and Chavis/Dalbec might be able to step into starting roles.

 

If Swihart is not in this deal, the Sox might be done. If he is, the Sox probably have one bench spot open for a RHH 1b like Pearce or an actual fourth outfielder (Jon Jay? Gerardo Parra?). But spending a lot probably won’t be the goal here, just in case. Pearce is the bigger need, but he might be difficult if he wants a contract similar to Mitch Moreland’s...

 

Good synopsis, but I doubt we go 4th OF'er. Besides the 3 we have that play FT, we have JD, who apparently enjoys playing OF more than DH'ing, we have these guys who can also play OF: Holt, Nunez, Moreland, Swihart and maybe Pearce, if we re-sign him.

 

[moonslav59]

Feltman was in A-ball last year. He shouldn’t be thrust immediately into a key bullpen role, but rather be considered depth. He might be good, but he also might be the second coming of Craig Hansen. Don’t rely on him yet.

 

Also did you DFA Workman? It might happen...

 

I like Workman, and I hope people don't give up on him based on one playoff game. He is out of options, and many teams are struggling with fitting out-of-options players into next year's plans, but I have to think we could at least trade him for something useful or a prospect,

 

Here are our bubble players who are out of options:

 

DL/Phantom DL/Trade?

Wright

Johnson

Workman

Hembree

 

Swihart

Leon

 

Trade/DL/DFA

Cuevas

[notin]

Good synopsis, but I doubt we go 4th OF'er. Besides the 3 we have that play FT, we have JD, who apparently enjoys playing OF more than DH'ing, we have these guys who can also play OF: Holt, Nunez, Moreland, Swihart and maybe Pearce, if we re-sign him.

 

 

A fourth OF isn’t so much a need as an option. The Sox will have a fourth bench spot available and if they can’t afford Pearce, it is a potentially cheap way to round out the bench. They could also just as easily use an internal player like Lin or Travis or Quiroz or ??

 

They might even have two bench spots open if Pedroia is out and Swihart is dealt...