A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[notin]

Okay, I guess I just viewed DD as the real GM.

 

That’s ok . So does DD...

[cp176]

And you always insist you want to. I was teasing, of course. I just forgot to put in my to indicate this...

 

notin - we just can't go on meeting this way! bad for my fragile mentality.

[cp176]

At the time of the trade I thought Kimbrel was a top 2-3 closer in MLB and projected to be a top 3-5 closer for the remainder of his team control years. It was never about not wanting Kimbrel or the like (and there aren't many like him, especially that come cheap). It was the same with Pom. I really liked Pom, even after he stumbled in 2016's second half a a bit. I just thought we could have used Espinoza (with others) to get Sale or Quintana (or both).

 

I've never been big on trading top prospects for 4/5 slot starters, even though Pom showed promise of maybe being a 2/3.

 

I think that it would be unusual if all people looked at these trades and didn't think that they could do better. What ever the reason and rationale, I saw them as good trades for us with respect to what we gave up and for what we got in return.

[notin]

I think that it would be unusual if all people looked at these trades and didn't think that they could do better. What ever the reason and rationale, I saw them as good trades for us with respect to what we gave up and for what we got in return.

 

Absolutely true. And just like with managerial decisions, we as fans operate with virtually n facts and history. Who knows what previous offers were rejected?

 

 

That said, the farm is undeniably bare. This is ok because it was well spent. But there’s no need to kid ourselves that being happy with the present means we have to be happy with the current outlook for the future. And by future, I am including potentiall trades between now and August...

[OH FOY]

Sports Radio up here say if JD has another year like last year, he'll OPT out.

[notin]

Sports Radio up here say if JD has another year like last year, he'll OPT out.

 

His agent would be a complete idiot to recommend anything else...

[OH FOY]

So Porcello, Bogaerts, Sale, JD (maybe). Save Money. After next year, this team could be entirely different. Go for it now then I guess.

[Dojji]

Dojji, if Kimbrel had had a good postseason this year I would agree with you.

 

But the fact is he had a horrendous postseason.

 

10.2 innings

9 hits

8 walks

2 HBP

2 HR

7 ER

.842 OPSa

 

We were fortunate that our other late inning relievers (including our starters) were rock solid, and also that we made some defensive plays behind Kimbrel. Because he was shaky to put it kindly.

 

You're absolutely right.

 

Now put another pitcher in the same position. One that didn't have the raw stuff of a Kimbrel. Closers are going to have bad stretches, and there is no GOOD time for a closer to struggle, but if you don't have the best talent you can get in the closer's role, those heart attack saves become blown saves pretty fast.

 

I mean I honestly heard people suggesting Joe Kelly for closer. You thought Kimbrel was an adventure, I actually heartily encourage this team to try Joe Kelly in that role, just so I can sit back and laugh.

[OH FOY]

This is important year to get Value, on good players that had a down year, and could turn it around. Miller comes to mind. Your going to need Cash. Sox have the Cash, just Luxury Tax hits hard if you don't win it all. Not so bad if you win the whole thing. Edited November 8, 2018 by OH FOY!

[Dojji]

Not to mention,it’s never been proven, let alone time and time again, that you need a closer in the postseason. And you only have to go back as far as the 2016 Astros to see one example.

 

Since the 2016 Astros missed the postseasion, I'm going to assume you are referring to the 2017 team and their closer Ken Giles, who wasn't great but had a career year the season that the Astros won it all with him. And I'll note that Giles regressed heavily and lost the closer's role this year, is now out of Houston entirely, and in fact 5 different relievers got multiple saves this year for the Astros, meaning the search for a proper closer is ongoing.

 

If I recall correctly we pulled some highly unpleasant surprises on the Astros in late innings over the course of the series that made a large difference in the outcome. Pretty good evidence that the lack of a consistent top end back of the bullpen can cost a team with dynastic ambitions.

 

I think the struggles of the Astros to find a solid closer combined with the fact that we ambushed them a couple times late in games, makes a pretty fair bit of progress towards proving MY point.

 

There are plenty of others as well.

 

I'm going to ask for some evidence of that

 

In fact, a significant number of World Series champions have used multiple closers over the course of the season....

 

How many did so in the modern era?

 

More to the point, how many were still tinkering with their closer's role by the time the postseason rolled around (in other words, how many teams had multiple relievers with multiple saves in the postseason?)

 

It's one thing to have some people auditioning in season to make the role their own, it's another entirely to actually try to close by committee. NOBODY does that.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

This is important year to get Value, on good players that had a down year, and could turn it around. Miller comes to mind. Your going to need Cash. Sox have the Cash, just Luxury Tax hits hard if you don't win it all. Not so bad if you win the whole thing.

 

That's why the idea of a rental contract on Adrian Beltre appeals to me. Bring him in and have Devers switch between third and first. He's young, he can handle it. Having Beltre part timing on the hot corner for a year or two can't possibly hurt Devers' development and he may wind up benefitting from Beltre's vast experiencce. And I'd honestly trust Beltre over Pearce to have a strong 2019 campaign.

[OH FOY]

That's why the idea of a rental contract on Adrian Beltre appeals to me. Bring him in and have Devers switch between third and first. He's young, he can handle it. Having Beltre part timing on the hot corner for a year or two can't possibly hurt Devers' development and he may wind up benefitting from Beltre's vast experiencce. And I'd honestly trust Beltre over Pearce to have a strong 2019 campaign.

 

If Cash is right, sounds good to me, this is value idea I like. Seriously, the Sox this Off-Season, got to be like Belichick, where every million counts. You sign Eovaldi at 16, and lose Porcello at 20, he does good, you save, after next year. This is the kind of thinking they need to do.

[Dojji]

Pretty sure you can get Beltre for a 1 year contract too. He's at that stage of his career. He'll come in, try to win a World Series on a stacked roster, and if it doesn't work he has the choice to re-up and try again or move on. It's a good idea IMHO.

[notin]

Pretty sure you can get Beltre for a 1 year contract too. He's at that stage of his career. He'll come in, try to win a World Series on a stacked roster, and if it doesn't work he has the choice to re-up and try again or move on. It's a good idea IMHO.

 

I can’t remember my source, but I believe Beltre has said he wants to finish up in Texas. He might be prioritizing family at this point in his Hall of Fame career.

 

Source or not, it certainly is possible...

[Bellhorn04]

That’s ok . So does DD...

 

He probably views himself as de facto head of business operations, but that's a little cumbersome...

[mvp 78]

That's why the idea of a rental contract on Adrian Beltre appeals to me. Bring him in and have Devers switch between third and first. He's young, he can handle it. Having Beltre part timing on the hot corner for a year or two can't possibly hurt Devers' development and he may wind up benefitting from Beltre's vast experiencce. And I'd honestly trust Beltre over Pearce to have a strong 2019 campaign.

 

Platoon at 3b? Maybe.

 

Devers to 1b? Hell no.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Devers is a 1b long term. I think the sox think that too. I would be surprised to see him moved to 1b in 2019 with Moreland still under contract. But there is a very real chance the sox move Devers to 1b for 2020. By then, this stick should carry at that offense first position

[dgalehouse]

It seems to me that , whatever value you may or may not put on a closer , Craig Kimbrel has never really been a favorite of some posters. Some did not want him here , think we gave up too much to get him and want him gone now. And that's okay. We all want to win and we all have our opinions on how to do it.But here is a fact : Kimbrel is a seven time all star and boasts a career ERA of 1.90 . It is not easy to fill those shoes. Not an opinion, simply a fact. As far as his age is concerned, he is the same age as Chapman. The same age as Joe Kelly . Brazier is a year older. Guys like Adam Ottavino and Andrew Miller are three years older. I can certainly understand not wanting to give Kimbrel a big money , long term contract . Exactly what the team's spending limitations are is really not known to us , but I would agree you don't want to go overboard on a closer. One thing though; you better have somebody who you can reliably count on to close the show.

[notin]

It seems to me that , whatever value you may or may not put on a closer , Craig Kimbrel has never really been a favorite of some posters. Some did not want him here , think we gave up too much to get him and want him gone now. And that's okay. We all want to win and we all have our opinions on how to do it.But here is a fact : Kimbrel is a seven time all star and boasts a career ERA of 1.90 . It is not easy to fill those shoes. Not an opinion, simply a fact. As far as his age is concerned, he is the same age as Chapman. The same age as Joe Kelly . Brazier is a year older. Guys like Adam Ottavino and Andrew Miller are three years older. I can certainly understand not wanting to give Kimbrel a big money , long term contract . Exactly what the team's spending limitations are is really not known to us , but I would agree you don't want to go overboard on a closer. One thing though; you better have somebody who you can reliably count on to close the show.

 

Who disliked Kimbrel?

 

Some felt the Sox gave up too much, and he had his critics when he struggled (what player didn’t?), but I never saw anyone who didn’t want him pitching.

 

Now not thinking it’s a good idea to meet his rumored demands is another matter. But it’s not the same as disliking Kimbrel. I like Ferrari’s, but I know it’s not in my best interest to pay for one...

[cp176]

It seems to me that , whatever value you may or may not put on a closer , Craig Kimbrel has never really been a favorite of some posters. Some did not want him here , think we gave up too much to get him and want him gone now. And that's okay. We all want to win and we all have our opinions on how to do it.But here is a fact : Kimbrel is a seven time all star and boasts a career ERA of 1.90 . It is not easy to fill those shoes. Not an opinion, simply a fact. As far as his age is concerned, he is the same age as Chapman. The same age as Joe Kelly . Brazier is a year older. Guys like Adam Ottavino and Andrew Miller are three years older. I can certainly understand not wanting to give Kimbrel a big money , long term contract . Exactly what the team's spending limitations are is really not known to us , but I would agree you don't want to go overboard on a closer. One thing though; you better have somebody who you can reliably count on to close the show.

 

I've always hated the concept of designated pitchers for designated innings. During the World Series, when it was an all hands on deck type of qpproach, it seemed as though the role of a designated closer became less important. We had Price, Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, and E-Rod ready to get the job done. Not bad. During the regular season, obviously things get approached differently. One thing I have always been in favor of is having the best pitchers top to bottom that you can find. I think that when you talk relief pitchers in general, Kimbrel is just about as good as it gets. His quality will not be easy to replace. It is easy to find relief pitchers but certainly not of his high quality talent.

[cp176]

Who disliked Kimbrel?

 

Some felt the Sox gave up too much, and he had his critics when he struggled (what player didn’t?), but I never saw anyone who didn’t want him pitching.

 

Now not thinking it’s a good idea to meet his rumored demands is another matter. But it’s not the same as disliking Kimbrel. I like Ferrari’s, but I know it’s not in my best interest to pay for one...

 

 

It is good to know though don't you think that JH can afford Ferrari's?

[Dojji]

Platoon at 3b? Maybe.

 

Devers to 1b? Hell no.

 

Devers is a big kid and he's going to fill out. I think it's 50 50 he needs to slide over no matter what we do.

 

Devers actually reminds me a fair bit of a young Miggy Cabrera, who could stick at third at first because of the energy of youth, and clung to the position for awhile afterward because the offense made up for the defense but as he got older needed to get off the hot corner and play 1B/DH for the most part.

 

I think the Sox realize this, which is why

 

1: we have been reluctant to block 1B with a professional all weather starter

2: we have signed Eduardo Nunez.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Dojji

[Dojji]

Who disliked Kimbrel?

 

Moonslav for one. He's been riding the "lowball Kimbrel" bandwagon for years. He'll call it something else, but he doesn't value elite closing because of his Jamesian predelictions, and doesn't agree with the decision to make a big splash for a closer for the same reason and that's coloring his arguments now that the team has a valid excuse to get rid of a guy he never wanted here in the first place.

 

He won't admit it. He might not even realize it. Human biases just work like that.

[redsoxrules]

If they sign Kimbrel for a crazy contract you can kiss a few of the young players goodbye in the near future. I'd rather keep the young core together rather then breaking the bank on a closer who will be declining soon

[dgalehouse]

Moonslav for one. He's been riding the "lowball Kimbrel" bandwagon for years. He'll call it something else, but he doesn't value elite closing because of his Jamesian predelictions, and doesn't agree with the decision to make a big splash for a closer for the same reason and that's coloring his arguments now that the team has a valid excuse to get rid of a guy he never wanted here in the first place.

 

He won't admit it. He might not even realize it. Human biases just work like that.

 

Biases of one sort or another are a part of the human condition. When it comes to the Red Sox , fans do have their favorites and their not so favorites. There can be various reasons for it , maybe some are actually subconscious. Who knows ? But it is a reality. Not trying to fault anyone here , just pointing out what seems fairly obvious.

[dgalehouse]

If they sign Kimbrel for a crazy contract you can kiss a few of the young players goodbye in the near future. I'd rather keep the young core together rather then breaking the bank on a closer who will be declining soon

 

I seriously doubt that Sox management is that short sighted. They will look at the Kimbrel situation entirely separately from the future considerations. It won't be a matter of one or the other.

[notin]

It is good to know though don't you think that JH can afford Ferrari's?

 

 

I think Henry gives away Ferrari’s as tips to valet attendants. But that has nothing to do with how much money he is willing to spend on the Red Sox, whether or not he plans to stick to CBA payroll limits, and how much he likes paying luxury tax. Ever met a wealthy person who liked paying taxes?

 

He is already paying Dombrowski for his expertise in building baseball teams. As it doesn’t require an expert to throw large sums of money at every big name player, it is possible he has different expectations from DD than some of us do...

[oldtimer]

If they sign Kimbrel for a crazy contract you can kiss a few of the young players goodbye in the near future. I'd rather keep the young core together rather then breaking the bank on a closer who will be declining soon

 

The predictions on Kimbrel is that he will get offered $15 mil for up to 5 years. That sounds like too much for us. Kelly is predicted to get offered 9 million a year for 3 years. Is that too much for us? He is not a sure thing at closer. We do need to fill the closer type role so this is a tough call for DD.

[notin]

I seriously doubt that Sox management is that short sighted. They will look at the Kimbrel situation entirely separately from the future considerations. It won't be a matter of one or the other.

 

Well, the two could very easily be closely related. They all fall under the same payroll.

 

In fact, I’d say looking at a potential Kimbrel contract without keeping future considerations in mind is the very definition of short-sighted.

 

As fans, we have the luxury of just wanting whatever it takes in 2019 and worrying about everything after as it gets here. But Dombrowski doesn’t. It’s his job to be mindful of future impact. And as he’s been doing it for a long time, we can only asssume he knows this and will do his best to act accordingly...

[Slasher9]

the Boston Red Sox win the 2018 World Series if FILL IN THE BLANK is the Closer the entire year.

You can literally put in any RP name in the Blank and we still have a parade.

that is how dominate we were this year.

in fact....i would say that we won the World Series IN SPITE of Craig Kimbrel. i could have pitched his stat line this postseason.

Craig Kimbrel is completely overrated for the 2018 season. thanks for the 3 years pal - good luck at your next stop and with your next contract. i want zero to do with it or you.