A Realistic View at 2019: Part I

[sk7326]

In reality, the majority of the 25 man roster is already set, with DD having limited resources to replace key losses and to reduce risks. A subject that might be discussed is what Cora and the Sox should discuss with the players as avenues of improvement. I don't have a lot in mind at this point but would suggest a couple.

 

1. Dever should work on his weight and trim down a little. He has the body type that is broad to start with and at a listed 239 pounds and around 6 feet tall he was over what he should have been as an infielder. If he could trim down to 220 or 215 it could help his range and maybe avoid later joint issues.

 

2. Beni has nice swing mechanics but I notice far too many balls fouls off to his left and a lot of weakly hit balls to left field. I would like to see him develop more ability to hit to all fields. He is a young player and it would help his game.

 

3. E-Rod has been said to have great stuff but he continued throughout the year to nibble around the edges of the plate and often going deep into coulds and walking batters. The result was a 5 inning pitcher. If he truly has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter he needs to change his approach to get deeper into games.

 

4. JBJ is a great fielder with a marginal hitting capability. At his age and experience level, I believe it is what we see is what we will continue to get. He did contribute to the Sox in the PO's and that is enough.

 

I don't have other comments, thinking what the players do is already the best we can expect from them. I just would want these players to maintain a good workout plan and stay in shape for the upcoming season.

 

Limited resources? Who said that?

[Kimmi]

Good Luck, after winning WS, and a couple of them Boras guys. These Projected arbitration salaries, will be enough for these kids to ride it out, until Free Agency. I wouldn't sign, now myself, if I was Bogaerts, JBJ, or Betts.

 

No doubt. Locking them up now will be easier said than done. I still find it very disheartening that for most players, it's all about the money.

 

One of the reasons why I am such a huge fan of Pedroia's is that he was willing to lock up long term with the team that he loves, rather than going for the most money.

[Kimmi]

If you never played Hockey I could see it as boring. Without a Doubt the most physically demanding game, with Hard Contact. Grew up in different era on NBA, cannot watch it anymore. Rather watch College.

 

Every hockey fan I know says that it is, by far, the most exciting sport to watch.

 

I have never been able to get into it, but I'm sure that if I followed it as closely as I do baseball, I would agree with them.

[Kimmi]

Limited resources? Who said that?

 

The luxury tax system and our depleted farm.

[Kimmi]

Joe Kelly for 2019 closer.

 

Get it done, Dave!

[notin]

Limited resources? Who said that?

 

They are certainly not unlimited...

[notin]

I hear what you're saying. But before they made the changes, the incidence of ties was getting to be ridiculous, because the games were also lower scoring.

 

Then make the net bigger. Set the puck on fire. Add some trampolines. Find another way to make the game more exciting.

[Bellhorn04]

Then make the net bigger.

 

They didn't do that, but the closest thing to it-they put a limit on the width of the goalies' leg pads.

[moonslav59]

In reality, the majority of the 25 man roster is already set, with DD having limited resources to replace key losses and to reduce risks. A subject that might be discussed is what Cora and the Sox should discuss with the players as avenues of improvement. I don't have a lot in mind at this point but would suggest a couple.

 

1. Dever should work on his weight and trim down a little. He has the body type that is broad to start with and at a listed 239 pounds and around 6 feet tall he was over what he should have been as an infielder. If he could trim down to 220 or 215 it could help his range and maybe avoid later joint issues.

 

If he can get down to 225-230, and stay there, it would probably be enough. I'm expecting a significant improvement with Devers (and Nunez) at 3B next year, regardless of weight loss or gain. The weight issue is probably more about long term production from Rafael.

 

 

2. Beni has nice swing mechanics but I notice far too many balls fouls off to his left and a lot of weakly hit balls to left field. I would like to see him develop more ability to hit to all fields. He is a young player and it would help his game.

 

This makes sense, but messing with a player's swing who improved his OBP to .366 this year and has a career .806 OPS at age 23 (and 1400+ PAs), is asking for trouble. I'm fine with having a lefty that loves to go opposite field. I'd like to see him spread out the hits, but I think Beni will improve, as is.

 

 

3. E-Rod has been said to have great stuff but he continued throughout the year to nibble around the edges of the plate and often going deep into counts and walking batters. The result was a 5 inning pitcher. If he truly has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter he needs to change his approach to get deeper into games.

 

Watching ERod pitch is extremely frustrating, and he taxes our pen more than any other top starter on the staff. He has, perhaps, the nastiest stuff on the staff, but nibbles too much for anybody's liking. The team did go 19-4 in his starts (20-4 counting the playoffs). To me, just stay healthy, and we'll be fine here.

 

4. JBJ is a great fielder with a marginal hitting capability. At his age and experience level, I believe it is what we see is what we will continue to get. He did contribute to the Sox in the PO's and that is enough.

 

He contributed on offense much longer than just the playoffs. JBJ showed major strides towards finding the consistency us Sox fans have been dreaming of for years. We could see a major uptick from JBJ, if he just continues what he did over the last 4.5 months of the year.

 

JBJ's last 102 games (May 20th on):

393 PAs

.260 BA

.333 OBP

.460 SLG

.793 OPS

11 HRs

50 RBI/58 Runs

 

Over his last 81 games (303 PAs)

 

.273 10 44 (prorated to 20 HRs and 88 RBIs)

 

.834 OPS

 

Maybe JBJ has finally found the groove he needs to stay in.

 

 

I don't have other comments, thinking what the players do is already the best we can expect from them. I just would want these players to maintain a good workout plan and stay in shape for the upcoming season.

 

I remember last year, after just about every Sox player, except Vazquez declined from their 2016 numbers, several posters said somethings like this, "Maybe, our players just aren't all that good and these numbers reflect who they really are."

 

We had young players on the upside of their age curve declining, and as I and others expected, they returned to their expected upswing. Will that continue? Will their be a "correction" based on the notion that many over performed this year?

 

My guess is that not very one of our younger players will get even better next year, but overall (combined), I think they will. Plus, we are no longer counting on these players that were/are past their primes:

 

34 HRam

34 Pedey

35 Pearce

36 Kinsler

37 Phillips

 

Our oldest returning (under team control) everyday players are:

32 Moreland (a platoon 1Bman)

31 Nunez (a utility player, but may get over 550 PAs next year)

30 JD Martinez

30 B Holt

 

None of these guys are past prime.

 

On the pitching side, our oldest returnees are:

 

33 Wright

32 Price

30 Brasier

29 Porcello

29 Sale

29 Velazquez

29 Hembree

29 Workman

29 Thornburg

29 Walden

 

I'm pretty optimistic going into this winter.

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts:

 

$21.5M x 6 Corbin

$20.5M x 4 Keuchel

$17.5M x 4 Kimbrel

$15M x 4 Eovaldi

$16M x 3 JA Happ

$16M x 2 Morton

$11M x 3 J Familia

$11M x 3 Z Britton

$11M x 3 Robertson

$11M x 3 Ryu

$10M x 3 Ottavino

$9M x 3 A Miller

$9M x 3 J Kelly

$8M x 1 Herrera

$12M x 2 Gio Gonzalez

$11M x 2 A Sanchez

$11M x 2 M Harvey

$11M x 2 T Cahill

$9M x 2 J Soria

$7M x 6 Y Kikuchi

$8M x 2 L Lynn

$8M x 2 C Allen

$7.5M x 2 D Holland

$8M x 1 Sabathia

$6M x 2 B Norris

$6M x 2 B Brach

$6M x 2 W Miley

$5M x 2 G Richards

$5M x 2 J Chavez

$6M x 1 E Santana

$6M x 1 Pomeranz

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

MLBTR's top pitchers and projected contracts that the Sox might be interested in kicking the tires:

 

$17.5M x 4 Kimbrel

$15M x 4 Eovaldi

$16M x 2 Morton

$11M x 3 J Familia

$11M x 3 Z Britton

$11M x 3 Robertson

$11M x 3 Ryu

$10M x 3 Ottavino

$9M x 3 A Miller

$9M x 3 J Kelly

$8M x 1 Herrera

$11M x 2 M Harvey

$11M x 2 T Cahill

$7M x 6 Y Kikuchi

$8M x 2 C Allen

$7.5M x 2 D Holland

$6M x 2 B Brach

$6M x 2 W Miley

$5M x 2 G Richards

$5M x 2 J Chavez

$6M x 1 E Santana

[harmony]

MLB Trade Rumors offers luxury tax coverage:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/red-sox-nationals-only-two-teams-to-exceed-2018-luxury-tax-threshold.html

[Bellhorn04]

MLB Trade Rumors offers luxury tax coverage:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/red-sox-nationals-only-two-teams-to-exceed-2018-luxury-tax-threshold.html

 

Unofficially, the Red Sox are at 237.85. But the official numbers will come later after the bean-counters do all their due diligence.

[Hitch]

£11m per year for Harvey? That seems high.

 

Bringing back Pom for £6m for one year could work. See which of the last two years is the real him.

[moonslav59]

Unofficially, the Red Sox are at 237.85. But the official numbers will come later after the bean-counters do all their due diligence.

 

"Boston surpassed the threshold by slightly beyond $40.85MM..."

 

My guess is, we did not exceed the $40M line, if we came that close.,

[Kimmi]

Devers is reportedly going to spend all off season working with JD Martinez in Miami.

 

Good for both of them.

[Bellhorn04]

Devers is reportedly going to spend all off season working with JD Martinez in Miami.

 

Good for both of them.

 

Love it.

[moonslav59]

Unofficially, the Red Sox are at 237.85. But the official numbers will come later after the bean-counters do all their due diligence.

 

The article claims that by going over the $40M line, we will be taxed 62% for the whole amount. I was under the impression we'd be charged 20% for every dollat over $197M, another 12% for every dollar between $20M and 40M and 62% for every dollar over $40M. Am I wrong, or is the article wrong?

[moonslav59]

Devers is reportedly going to spend all off season working with JD Martinez in Miami.

 

Good for both of them.

 

JD better keep Rafael away from those Cuban sandwiches.

[S5Dewey]

Every hockey fan I know says that it is, by far, the most exciting sport to watch.

 

I have never been able to get into it, but I'm sure that if I followed it as closely as I do baseball, I would agree with them.

 

I like hockey when I see it live. Living where I do the local college has a storied history of NCAA hockey and although they've struggled some in recent years I still try to get to a few games each winter.

However, I can't get into hockey on tv. For me it's as someone once said, watching hockey on tv is a lot like watching ping-pong when you can't see the ball.

[S5Dewey]

I know there's a lot of optimism regarding ERod, but has it occurred to anyone other than me that he might be a bit of a head case?

 

Without even blaming him for his ankle sprain, he once failed to cover first, then when called on it he said he slipped on the mound, which was belied by the films. Then in the playoffs he was absolutely dogging it between 1st and 2nd when a double play was in order. I know the case can be made for his not wanting to hurt himself, but still... the playoffs?... and running from 1st to 2nd ?? IMO any runner should be at least pretending to show some effort!

[moonslav59]

I know there's a lot of optimism regarding ERod, but has it occurred to anyone other than me that he might be a bit of a head case?

 

Without even blaming him for his ankle sprain, he once failed to cover first, then when called on it he said he slipped on the mound, which was belied by the films. Then in the playoffs he was absolutely dogging it between 1st and 2nd when a double play was in order. I know the case can be made for his not wanting to hurt himself, but still... the playoffs?... and running from 1st to 2nd ?? IMO any runner should be at least pretending to show some effort!

 

All of what you brought up is concerning, but I'm not sure if he deserves that label at this point.

 

I just hope he stays healthy.

[dannycater]

This is my Realistic View of 2019....Sox are the defending World Series Champions and we will win 100 games next season and make the postseason yet again. That is all.

[jacksonianmarch]

You cannot make predictions about 2019 until you’ve got a reasonably good idea of what your roster will look like. I think the Sox will be good, but I have no idea who is moving on, coming in or what the spending will amount to. If they retain Eo, build up the back end of the pen and don’t have any mystery surgeries, then I’d agree

[cp176]

I know there's a lot of optimism regarding ERod, but has it occurred to anyone other than me that he might be a bit of a head case?

 

Without even blaming him for his ankle sprain, he once failed to cover first, then when called on it he said he slipped on the mound, which was belied by the films. Then in the playoffs he was absolutely dogging it between 1st and 2nd when a double play was in order. I know the case can be made for his not wanting to hurt himself, but still... the playoffs?... and running from 1st to 2nd ?? IMO any runner should be at least pretending to show some effort!

 

Yes I have. Years ago when we completed the trade for him, as unusual as it might seem, I took a beating for even suggesting that this young man had the potential to put up ace like numbers. That is probably hard to imagine right? lol i have to say though, that I have been disappointed by his progress. Obviously the injuries have taken their toll but just the same it has been frustrating for me to watch him. A classic all the talent in the world kind of guy. I understand that it is an old school approach but I have that image of him waddling toward second base on that groundball etched in my brain. A World Series game!!! he likely isn't going anywhere so I will continue to cheer for him.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not sure he’s posted ace type numbers, but he’s clearly good. He’s a #3 with #2 type upside

[Bellhorn04]

The article claims that by going over the $40M line, we will be taxed 62% for the whole amount. I was under the impression we'd be charged 20% for every dollat over $197M, another 12% for every dollar between $20M and 40M and 62% for every dollar over $40M. Am I wrong, or is the article wrong?

 

I think you're right and the article is wrong.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with you BH

[notin]

I know there's a lot of optimism regarding ERod, but has it occurred to anyone other than me that he might be a bit of a head case?

 

Without even blaming him for his ankle sprain, he once failed to cover first, then when called on it he said he slipped on the mound, which was belied by the films. Then in the playoffs he was absolutely dogging it between 1st and 2nd when a double play was in order. I know the case can be made for his not wanting to hurt himself, but still... the playoffs?... and running from 1st to 2nd ?? IMO any runner should be at least pretending to show some effort!

 

The injury excuse might be legit. But I will agree his lack of hustle appeared to be disheartening. It’s a shame because he has a serious arm and normally I would say, along with Benintendi, is a prime extension candidate.

 

Cora and DD know the truth, or at least more of it than us, and will act accordingly...

[moonslav59]

You cannot make predictions about 2019 until you’ve got a reasonably good idea of what your roster will look like. I think the Sox will be good, but I have no idea who is moving on, coming in or what the spending will amount to. If they retain Eo, build up the back end of the pen and don’t have any mystery surgeries, then I’d agree

 

We could sign nobody and still win 100.

 

Book it!