Is the AL MVP race pretty much over?

[bosoxmal]

A month ago, I thought this a pretty good race between 4 guys. Now I can see it beingif, not a runaway, a reasonably sure thing. There is no part of the game in which Mookie does not excel. At least the equal of all contnders. And then it;s matter of who he is, and I think that sinches it.

[mvp 78]

It should be, but you never really know with the voters.

[moonslav59]

To me, it's about who gets 2nd? JD or Ramirez?

[jacksonianmarch]

Mookie has the highest WAR and is the best overall player. He is the AL's best player, but the vote is for the most valuable. With Martinez likely to finish top 5 as well, I have to think he pulls a bit from Mookie. Also, I think a case is made that the Guardians don't make the playoffs without Ramirez, although it's a weak argument. Betts should win, but whenever there are two really good options on the same team, they usually split the vote and someone else gets it

[Thunder]

Mookie has the highest WAR and is the best overall player. He is the AL's best player, but the vote is for the most valuable. With Martinez likely to finish top 5 as well, I have to think he pulls a bit from Mookie. Also, I think a case is made that the Guardians don't make the playoffs without Ramirez, although it's a weak argument. Betts should win, but whenever there are two really good options on the same team, they usually split the vote and someone else gets it

 

So does Lindor pull anything away from Ramirez? If that's the case, who wins? Trout again? I would literally die

[iortiz]

Mookie is the best player of the majors, and it’s not even close. He will win it.

[dgalehouse]

The word " valuable " adds too much subjectivity to the process. I would prefer having two separate awards. "Player of the year " and " Pitcher of the year " . But no matter how you slice it, Mookie should win it.

[Jasonbay44]

Mookie has the highest WAR and is the best overall player. He is the AL's best player, but the vote is for the most valuable. With Martinez likely to finish top 5 as well, I have to think he pulls a bit from Mookie. Also, I think a case is made that the Guardians don't make the playoffs without Ramirez, although it's a weak argument. Betts should win, but whenever there are two really good options on the same team, they usually split the vote and someone else gets it

 

Guardians don't make playoffs without Ramirez? They play in horrendous division, and how is Lindor not taking away votes from Ramirez if this is the argument?

[jacksonianmarch]

JB, Mookie should win it. I can just see the ridiculous argument if he doesn't.

[notin]

Mookie has the highest WAR and is the best overall player. He is the AL's best player, but the vote is for the most valuable. With Martinez likely to finish top 5 as well, I have to think he pulls a bit from Mookie. Also, I think a case is made that the Guardians don't make the playoffs without Ramirez, although it's a weak argument. Betts should win, but whenever there are two really good options on the same team, they usually split the vote and someone else gets it

 

It's not a weak argument. It's a stupid argument.

 

The Guardians have 3 of the 6 highest fWAR players and the 4 highest fWAR pitchers in the AL Central.

 

And while the Guardians are good, the rest of that division is flat out awful. Whit Merrifield and Eduardo Escobar are the only two non-Cleveland position players from AL Central teams in the top 20 by fWAR of the American League. Nick Castellanos is the other before the next Cleveland player (Brantley).

 

In the top 37 players by WAR in the American League, Cleveland has as many (and better) players as the other four teams in the division combined. And that's not evne getting into the pitching, which they beyond dominate.

 

Not only do the Guardians walk away with that division even without Ramirez, they walk away without Lindor as well.

 

And possibly Kluber, too...

[redsoxrules]

It's going to be between Betts or Trout. They will be 1-2 and it's not even close for anyone else. They both have over 9 WAR. This award doesn't matter if you're on a winning team or not

[moonslav59]

It's going to be between Betts or Trout. They will be 1-2 and it's not even close for anyone else. They both have over 9 WAR. This award doesn't matter if you're on a winning team or not

 

It shouldn't, but it does.

[redsoxrules]

It shouldn't, but it does.

 

It doesn't or else Trout wouldn't be 1 or 2 every year he has been in the league. He's going to continue that trend this year

[moonslav59]

It doesn't or else Trout wouldn't be 1 or 2 every year he has been in the league. He's going to continue that trend this year

 

He's been light years ahead of everyone else those years.

 

JD & Ramirez have some great numbers this year, and Trout missed some time.

 

The voters don't just look at WAR.

 

[notin]

It shouldn't, but it does.

 

Don’t tell ARod or Andre Dawson...

[redsoxrules]

He's been light years ahead of everyone else those years.

 

JD & Ramirez have some great numbers this year, and Trout missed some time.

 

The voters don't just look at WAR.

 

 

Betts and Trout have same number of playing time this year. Ramirez cooled off late in the year. He won't be close.

[moonslav59]

Betts and Trout have same number of playing time this year. Ramirez cooled off late in the year. He won't be close.

 

Many voters still value RBIs. It's not even close on that stat.

Edited September 25, 2018 by moonslav59

[Emp9]

Hmmm...Betts bats leadoff though and has exactly one more RBI than Trout at the moment. Does anyone think Betts wouldn't have comparable RBI numbers to JD, or Davis, or Ramirez if he batted lower in the order as well? I really hope the voters for these awards (managers, writers) take these kind of things into account this year. He could've hit .500 on the season and still not lead the league in RBIs, batting leadoff. Lindor has batted .281 on the season and has 89 RBI compared to Betts who's batted .343 with 80 RBI. Who's fault is that?

 

Hint: Not Mookie's.

 

 

Does WPA matter at all? Kinda seems like this should matter the most if we're talking MVP

 

Win Probability Added (WPA)

1.Betts • BOS

5.8

 

2.Bregman • HOU

5.6

 

3.Martinez • BOS

5.4

 

4.Benintendi • BOS

4.0

 

5.Trout • LAA

3.9

 

6.Bogaerts • BOS

3.8

 

7.Haniger • SEA

3.6

 

8.Davis • OAK

3.5

 

9.Ramirez • CLE

3.4

 

10.Castellanos • DET

3.1

Edited September 25, 2018 by Emp9

[BstHcpr]

I bet Khris Davis wins, because of the 46 HR.

[Station 13]

This one is ovah.

[Bellhorn04]

I bet Khris Davis wins, because of the 46 HR.

 

No chance. That's a losing bet.

[kenmeister]

Betts and Trout have same number of playing time this year. Ramirez cooled off late in the year. He won't be close.

 

I know a month or so ago I said Trout should win, but it looks pretty even between the two of them now. When it's close, I do agree with giving the nod to the guy whose team just broke a record for wins.

[greenwell]

I know a month or so ago I said Trout should win, but it looks pretty even between the two of them now. When it's close, I do agree with giving the nod to the guy whose team just broke a record for wins.

 

It doesn't look very even to me. They are close in a lot of stats, but Betts clearly gets the nod, regardless of the standings.

[kenmeister]

It doesn't look very even to me. They are close in a lot of stats, but Betts clearly gets the nod, regardless of the standings.

 

I took another look and Trout missed even more time than Mookie did. It hurts some of his cumulatives. His percentages though are dynamite. But wow, so many walks! I feel like the walks may be hurting his MVP chances more than anything else.

[sk7326]

Yes. This one has been easy. The narrative reasons to choose Betts are there. (the best player in the league on the best team in the league) The more "scientific" reasons to choose Betts are there (lead or near lead in WAR). It won't be unanimous - any of Betts, Trout, Bregman, Ramirez and Lindor are "good" choices - but Betts has checked all the boxes.

[sk7326]

Hmmm...Betts bats leadoff though and has exactly one more RBI than Trout at the moment. Does anyone think Betts wouldn't have comparable RBI numbers to JD, or Davis, or Ramirez if he batted lower in the order as well? I really hope the voters for these awards (managers, writers) take these kind of things into account this year. He could've hit .500 on the season and still not lead the league in RBIs, batting leadoff. Lindor has batted .281 on the season and has 89 RBI compared to Betts who's batted .343 with 80 RBI. Who's fault is that?

 

Hint: Not Mookie's.

 

 

Does WPA matter at all? Kinda seems like this should matter the most if we're talking MVP

 

Win Probability Added (WPA)

1.Betts • BOS

5.8

 

2.Bregman • HOU

5.6

 

3.Martinez • BOS

5.4

 

4.Benintendi • BOS

4.0

 

5.Trout • LAA

3.9

 

6.Bogaerts • BOS

3.8

 

7.Haniger • SEA

3.6

 

8.Davis • OAK

3.5

 

9.Ramirez • CLE

3.4

 

10.Castellanos • DET

3.1

 

WPA has some luck involved - since there is not much control about when a player comes to bat (which impacts win probability).

[Maxbialystock]

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7.

 

Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS.

[Maxbialystock]

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7.

 

Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS.

 

The big surprise to me is that earlier in the season Trout had a better DWAR than Mookie. But now Mookie's DWAR is double Trout's.

[sk7326]

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7.

 

Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS.

 

I should have added Chapman to the "good" list.

[oldtimer]

Lindor is, I think, the top-rated defensive SS in MLB and has an OPS of .879 with 36 dingers, 89 rbi's, 124 runs, 23 SB's, etc. His overall WAR, however, is 7.7 to Mookie's 10.7.

 

Still, that OPS is awfully darn impressive when owned by the best fielding SS.

 

The big surprise to me is that earlier in the season Trout had a better DWAR than Mookie. But now Mookie's DWAR is double Trout's.

 

Mookie is among the best right fielders in the game and while Lindor is very good, Mookie is carrying the highest batting average and OPS. It's Mookie as MVP.