Is the AL MVP race pretty much over?

[redsoxrules]

I think you give too much credit to JD. Not trying to take anything away from him, but IMO, Betts deserves more credit on his own. IMO, he was headed for this type of season with or without JD.

 

We'll never know. With the season betts had last year there was no guarantee he was going to have a big year like he did this year.

Without adding JD the Sox don't win the World Series this year.

[BillyWilliams]

From busted ol'nut's twitter

 

Buster Olney

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If you created an award for a hitter who had most impact on a club's offense culture, J.D. Martinez would win in a landslide in 2018. Boston's collective take-what-the-pitcher-gives approach vs. Keuchel in ALCS should be shown to hitters, and J.D. was in the middle of that.

[BillyWilliams]

i'm a huge JD fan and think I realize the impact that he had on the entire team this year. Without him, I don't think that we get where we got. With all of that said, Mookie is the MVP this year. Take him off the roster, and I think that it makes a whole different ballgame. He brings too much to the table on both sides including his baserunning. ability.

 

What was the sox's record with betts on the DL this year?

[Bellhorn04]

We'll never know. With the season betts had last year there was no guarantee he was going to have a big year like he did this year.

Without adding JD the Sox don't win the World Series this year.

 

We might not have won it without adding Eovaldi and Pearce, either. We likely wouldn't have won it if David Price didn't suddenly transform into postseason beast.

 

That's the thing about baseball, there are so many pieces in the puzzle.

 

Your first three words said it all 'We'll never know'.

 

You can't really give out awards based on guesses about what would or wouldn't have happened.

[Station 13]

What was the sox's record with betts on the DL this year?

 

They scored 1 runs less per game during his 2 week DL.

[BillyWilliams]

They scored 1 runs less per game during his 2 week DL.

 

Thanks, just saw that they went 8-6 during that stretch.

[sk7326]

As I said, betts had the better season stat wise.

 

I just think jd had more impact on the club over all.

 

If the MVP is just about stats, then to heck with the voting, just give it to the WAR leader every year ......

 

That is silly - but the WAR leaders is a good place to start. WAR is not precise enough to take as gospel, especially with smaller margins.

 

As such, Betts and Trout are far and away the best choices for the award. Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman and Chapman are clearly a step down but worthy of consideration, and in many other seasons WOULD be serious MVP candidates. JD Martinez I'd put up there too - while the fact he added no defensive value is a fair minus for him ... I mitigate that somewhat by noting that his job was to hit the baseball and he was elite there.

 

Betts is a fairly easy choice in that the narrative and the numbers match. But Trout is certainly deserving. Betts' edges in WAR come from defense - but a lot of THAT edge comes from playing RF where the baseline performance is lower. Would that edge hold up if Trout played RF and Betts played CF. There is reason to believe they are basically tied.

 

The problem with talking about team success is that in reality you are evaluating the other 24 player on the roster - when you are supposed to be evaluating the player.

[Dojji]

Betts came up as a CF and was extremely effective before JBJ took the position over. I think it's fair to point out that he plays an easier position, but it's also fair to point out that the only reason Betts isn't playing CF right now is because JBJ is just a little bit better there

 

In 2015 when Mookie played his last full year in center, he created 1.5 dWAR, Gold Glove caliber numbers, better than all but one of Trout's seasons, and better than Trout's 2018 season by half a win. He was absolutely an elite defensive center fielder when called upon to be one. It's a tribute to JBJ's incredible defensive chops that he was able to beat Mookie out and make the position his own.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Dojji

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

That is silly - but the WAR leaders is a good place to start. WAR is not precise enough to take as gospel, especially with smaller margins.

 

As such, Betts and Trout are far and away the best choices for the award. Ramirez, Lindor, Bregman and Chapman are clearly a step down but worthy of consideration, and in many other seasons WOULD be serious MVP candidates. JD Martinez I'd put up there too - while the fact he added no defensive value is a fair minus for him ... I mitigate that somewhat by noting that his job was to hit the baseball and he was elite there.

 

Betts is a fairly easy choice in that the narrative and the numbers match. But Trout is certainly deserving. Betts' edges in WAR come from defense - but a lot of THAT edge comes from playing RF where the baseline performance is lower. Would that edge hold up if Trout played RF and Betts played CF. There is reason to believe they are basically tied.

 

The problem with talking about team success is that in reality you are evaluating the other 24 player on the roster - when you are supposed to be evaluating the player.

 

 

It's pretty simple to me. Did your team make the playoffs then you're a candidate. If not then no you shouldn't be. With Mike Trout, the angels don't sniff the playoffs, without mike trouth they don't sniff the playoffs. This shouldn't be complicated.

[Dojji]

It's pretty simple to me. Did your team make the playoffs then you're a candidate. If not then no you shouldn't be. With Mike Trout, the angels don't sniff the playoffs, without mike trouth they don't sniff the playoffs. This shouldn't be complicated.

 

With or without Mookie Betts, this Red Sox team makes the playoffs, so I'm not sure where that leaves us

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

With or without Mookie Betts, this Red Sox team makes the playoffs, so I'm not sure where that leaves us

 

C'mon man we're not winning the world series without Betts. We're making this harder than it is.

[Dojji]

Just giving your argument a proper consistency check

[DontCallMeUncleRico]

Just giving your argument a proper consistency check

 

I always believe a tie goes to the player with team success. It's just another opportunity to reward what matters which is WINNING.

[Kimmi]

But the top 3 or 4 WAR leaders will usually make a pretty easily defensible list of candidates...

 

I don't disagree with that.

 

I just think that there other factors to consider for MVP.

 

If it were a Player of the Year Award, I'd be okay with taking the top WAR guy.

[Kimmi]

I agree with this. JD made the team better. But Betts was a special player all along and we knew he was capable of this kind of step forward for the last couple seasons. Great to see him realize his potential and he and JD probably did help each other a little bit, but neither one was THE reason for the other one's success.

 

Agreed.

[Kimmi]

We'll never know. With the season betts had last year there was no guarantee he was going to have a big year like he did this year.

Without adding JD the Sox don't win the World Series this year.

 

There's no way of knowing for sure what would have happened. I don't want to take anything away from JD because he is a great player and he definitely made our team better. IMO, however, this team as a whole, along with several individual players, were due to bounce back. I believe they would have been better this year with or without JD.

 

I also think Cora deserves some credit for the offensive improvements we saw this year.

[cp176]

What was the sox's record with betts on the DL this year?

 

I dunno - Do I care? Is this a tick question just to see if I might waste a little time and look something like this up?

[redsoxrules]

C'mon man we're not winning the world series without Betts. We're making this harder than it is.

 

Did you see betts stats in the playoffs?

[notin]

Did you see betts stats in the playoffs?

 

Would we have been in the playoffs without Betts?

 

And before anyone asks if we would have been there without Martinez, we were in 2016 and 2017...

[TylerD]

Would we have been in the playoffs without Betts?

 

And before anyone asks if we would have been there without Martinez, we were in 2016 and 2017...

 

This.

[moonslav59]

Did you see betts stats in the playoffs?

 

Does anyone else get to that ball in Houston?

[Jasonbay44]

JD will be a Silver Slugger.

 

Apparently he'll get two silver sluggers.

[sk7326]

I don't disagree with that.

 

I just think that there other factors to consider for MVP.

 

If it were a Player of the Year Award, I'd be okay with taking the top WAR guy.

 

I can see that - but so much of the other stuff is outside the player's control. Should Trout or De Grom be penalized because their GMs did not do their thing properly?

[Kimmi]

I can see that - but so much of the other stuff is outside the player's control. Should Trout or De Grom be penalized because their GMs did not do their thing properly?

 

No they shouldn't. I am not necessarily opposed to Trout winning the MVP.

[Dojji]

Since JD is not in consideration, Trout is the only non-Betts player who could win the MVP and I wouldn't mind.

 

BTW some people think JD got shafted. Not sure I agree. Betts kept up with JD offensively and the defense made it a slam dunk. If a voter isn't inclined to pick two players from the same team, and one imagines that many aren't, then those voters are going to ignore JD in favor of Betts.

 

JD is a guy in that really awkward "Best of the Rest" category. He had a great year but was not better than either Trout or Mookie. Since he would lose a head-to-head runoff against his own teammate, I think it's fair not to make him a finalist.

 

I'd say JD probably deserved consideration over Jose Ramirez, but positional logic allows one to defend Ramirez' selection. A great hitting guy who can play MIF -> a great hitting COF most of the time.

Edited November 9, 2018 by Dojji

[sk7326]

Since JD is not in consideration, Trout is the only non-Betts player who could win the MVP and I wouldn't mind.

 

BTW some people think JD got shafted. Not sure I agree. Betts kept up with JD offensively and the defense made it a slam dunk. If a voter isn't inclined to pick two players from the same team, and one imagines that many aren't, then those voters are going to ignore JD in favor of Betts.

 

JD is a guy in that really awkward "Best of the Rest" category. He had a great year but was not better than either Trout or Mookie. Since he would lose a head-to-head runoff against his own teammate, I think it's fair not to make him a finalist.

 

I'd say JD probably deserved consideration over Jose Ramirez, but positional logic allows one to defend Ramirez' selection. A great hitting guy who can play MIF -> a great hitting COF most of the time.

 

I am inclined to mark JD up a little bit because he was a DH - he was asked for one dimension and he delivered. But not enough to crack the Top 4 or so. Trout-Betts-Ramirez is a clear Top 3. Betts to me is the best choice, and only Trout is a fair guy to pick over him.

[Dojji]

Being a DH probably plays against JD, like it always did with Ortiz.

[sk7326]

Being a DH probably plays against JD, like it always did with Ortiz.

 

it does - and I don't mind that it should (the offensive bar should be higher for a specialist) ...

[Kimmi]

it does - and I don't mind that it should (the offensive bar should be higher for a specialist) ...

 

I don't think a DH should be penalized for not playing defense. As long as MLB has the DH role, players who are primarily DHs should be judged solely in that capacity. That goes for HOF voting as well.

 

In terms of offense only, Betts still tops JD, so I'm fine with Betts getting the nod over JD. However, if JD had better offensive numbers than Betts, I would have an issue with anyone not voting for JD simply because he doesn't play defense.

 

Also, I stil don't think it's all about WAR when you're talking about 'Most Valuable'. I think intangibles have to be factored in, which granted, is a difficult thing to do.

[sk7326]

I don't think a DH should be penalized for not playing defense. As long as MLB has the DH role, players who are primarily DHs should be judged solely in that capacity. That goes for HOF voting as well.

 

In terms of offense only, Betts still tops JD, so I'm fine with Betts getting the nod over JD. However, if JD had better offensive numbers than Betts, I would have an issue with anyone not voting for JD simply because he doesn't play defense.

 

Also, I stil don't think it's all about WAR when you're talking about 'Most Valuable'. I think intangibles have to be factored in, which granted, is a difficult thing to do.

 

Who says it is all about WAR? I am realistic - it's a starting point not an end of the discussion. Now WAR is good for isolating individual contribution - and keeps me from falling into the trap of grading teammates.

 

Now I am not penalizing a DH. I am noting that someone who has one job should be really good at it, better than someone who has other jobs. It's the flipside to why nobody cares whether a pitcher can hit or not. So there is a higher bar for a pure DH than a position player - it's self evident to me.

 

Martinez had an extraordinary season - but there were more valuable ones. No shame in that. I'd also point out that this year has a number of guys in the AL who would have been MVP in many, many other seasons. Trout and Betts were just spectacular ...