A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[cp176]

I'm not sure whether I was a Holt supporter or not. Sometimes yes and sometimes no I guess. I think that right now he should be our primary second baseman. He has earned the job.

[S5Dewey]

I'm not sure whether I was a Holt supporter or not. Sometimes yes and sometimes no I guess. I think that right now he should be our primary second baseman. He has earned the job.

 

As a former coach I'm surprised you're not all over Brock Holt. Holt isn't a great player at any position but he does just what a coach wants him to do. He goes out there every day, plays respectably at any position, and never tries to do anything he can't do.

[cp176]

As a former coach I'm surprised you're not all over Brock Holt. Holt isn't a great player at any position but he does just what a coach wants him to do. He goes out there every day, plays respectably at any position, and never tries to do anything he can't do.

 

You are so right there. He really is my kind of player. tough tough tough gamer. I love those guys. We seem to have quite a few of them right now.

[oldtimer]

You are so right there. He really is my kind of player. tough tough tough gamer. I love those guys. We seem to have quite a few of them right now.

 

I'd put Pearse in that category. Older guy but a contributor. Hoope Cora uses him wisely.

[cp176]

I'd put Pearse in that category. Older guy but a contributor. Hoope Cora uses him wisely.

 

Me too with respect to Pearse. I think that DD does his homework and is trying to bring the right types of guys in to Boston.

[Larry Cook]

This team desperately needed veteran leadership. Pearce has been a fine addition!

[a700hitter]

This team desperately needed veteran leadership. Pearce has been a fine addition!

I don't know about his leadership, but he is a potent bat against left handed pitching, and we needed that.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I love Brock Holt, just a gamer who always seemed under rated. Not saying he is a starter on a championship team but you need glue guys like this.

 

How fun has this first half been? I can't ever remember watching a team where I just expect them to break open a close game and win going away like this team continues to do night after night.

[kenmeister]

There are some really interesting second half storylines too. Will Blake Swihart finally prove himself, now that he’s been given a chance to catch more often with Vazquez out? Will Velazquez make a case for staying in the rotation? Will David Price work out of this funk? Is Steven Pearce as good as he seems? Will Chris Sale finally have a strong second half? Will JBJ ever start to really hit? Do Pomeranz or Pedroia come back? If not, who wins the second base job? Do E-Rod and Porcello win 20 games? Does JD win the triple crown? Do the Sox break the 110 win mark? Can they stay ahead of the Yankees and win the division?

 

What a season!

[moonslav59]

Great to see ERod continue his excellence. It still amazes me some wanted to trade him.

 

Great to see the Yanks lose one to the lowly O's. Nice to see some of ouf our games in hand becoming loses for the Yanks.

 

Moreland & Holt have certainly been proving me wrong. I love being wrong in these ways.

 

Pearce looks like a superb get.

 

 

We made it to Maine last night. We're here for a week, then off to Canada and back to Maine for a few more days.

 

Nice to be back in Sox Country!

[Slasher9]

 

Great to see the Yanks lose one to the lowly O's. Nice to see some of ouf our games in hand becoming loses for the Yanks.

But Jacksonianmarch said the Red Sox were only doing so well because we were beating the sucky teams and that the Yankees would surely win all of the games against sucky teams and blow past us in the standings. Are you sure that the Yankees lost a game to the lowly Orioles? Surely this cannot be true. Jacksonianmarch (the most knowledgeable non troll talksox member of all time and doctor) said this would never happen.

[Nick]

I love to see Sox give all those hard throwers in our minor league system chance to show what they got.

 

Maybe one will surprise us. There appears to be no shortage of flame throwers. Can they throw strikes?

[moonslav59]

Will Blake Swihart finally prove himself, now that he’s been given a chance to catch more often with Vazquez out?

Doubtful, but certainlypossiblr.

 

Will Velazquez make a case for staying in the rotation?

The question might be more about Pom pitching well enough to win his job back.

 

Will David Price work out of this funk?

I'm not sure it's a "funk", but it would be nice for more consistency.

Is Steven Pearce as good as he seems?

He's real good.

 

Will Chris Sale finally have a strong second half?

My biggest concern about this team. WE NEED HIM STRONG IN OCTOBER!

 

Will JBJ ever start to really hit?

Yes, for a short stretch.

 

Do Pomeranz or Pedroia come back?

I'm not counting on either but Pom has the best chance.

 

If not, who wins the second base job?

As is: Holt and Nunez.

 

Do E-Rod and Porcello win 20 games?

18 & 18

 

Does JD win the triple crown?

No, just HRs & RBI

 

Do the Sox break the 110 win mark?

Close

 

Can they stay ahead of the Yankees and win the division?

Book it

 

[Nick]

Great to see ERod continue his excellence. It still amazes me some wanted to trade him.

 

Great to see the Yanks lose one to the lowly O's. Nice to see some of ouf our games in hand becoming loses for the Yanks.

 

Moreland & Holt have certainly been proving me wrong. I love being wrong in these ways.

 

Pearce looks like a superb get.

 

 

We made it to Maine last night. We're here for a week, then off to Canada and back to Maine for a few more days.

 

Nice to be back in Sox Country!

 

Pearce has certainly put Hanley in rear mirror for me. Just a good pick up. He's hit in AL East as he has now played for every AL East team.

 

I hope Hanley takes some time off and return next year. He can play for someone. Just not for $22M.

[Spudboy]

Like many here I believe Pearce was a "good get".

 

Certainly the way he has introduced himself to us has been entertaining and productive. He is hitting the s*** out of the ball right now.

 

However, the guy is 35 years old and has never played more than 120 games for a team in one season.

 

He has never had more than 383 PA in one season.

 

He is a career .257 hitter with a .333 OBP.

 

He does not have a record of hitting a lot of XBH.

 

I am glad that DD got this guy. He gives us a decent back-up 1st baseman and platoon bat against lefties.

 

Eventually the shine is going to wear off on this guy and many here will be bitching about how DD did not do enough to strengthen the roster for a playoff run.

 

Everyone was anxious about Nunez resigning. Well he came back down to Earth and is what he has been for his career.

 

I expect the same for Pearce.

[Dojji]

Pearce is a roleplayer, a lot like Chris Young or Johnny Gomes. He's on a rampage right now, but even when he cools down, he'll still be a solid platoon guy.

[moonslav59]

Pearce is a roleplayer, a lot like Chris Young or Johnny Gomes. He's on a rampage right now, but even when he cools down, he'll still be a solid platoon guy.

 

He has not gotten over 383 PAs, so in that sense, he's been a "role player," but he has an .829 OPS since 2014.

 

That ranks 44th out of 319 players with 1000+ PAs since then. Only 38 players have a better OPS and more PAs. I'm not sure Young or Gomes could ever say that.

 

Like Gomes and Young, they all hit lefties better, although reverse splits sometimes happened when with Boston.

 

Pearce is .880 vs lefties since 2014. Only 21 MLB players have a higher OPS and more PAs vs lefties in this period of time!

[Spudboy]

Still a .257 lifetime hitter with little pop.

[kenmeister]

Will Blake Swihart finally prove himself, now that he’s been given a chance to catch more often with Vazquez out?

Doubtful, but certainlypossiblr.

 

Will Velazquez make a case for staying in the rotation?

The question might be more about Pom pitching well enough to win his job back.

 

Will David Price work out of this funk?

I'm not sure it's a "funk", but it would be nice for more consistency.

Is Steven Pearce as good as he seems?

He's real good.

 

Will Chris Sale finally have a strong second half?

My biggest concern about this team. WE NEED HIM STRONG IN OCTOBER!

 

Will JBJ ever start to really hit?

Yes, for a short stretch.

 

Do Pomeranz or Pedroia come back?

I'm not counting on either but Pom has the best chance.

 

If not, who wins the second base job?

As is: Holt and Nunez.

 

Do E-Rod and Porcello win 20 games?

18 & 18

 

Does JD win the triple crown?

No, just HRs & RBI

 

Do the Sox break the 110 win mark?

Close

 

Can they stay ahead of the Yankees and win the division?

Book it

 

 

Hey thanks for taking the time to go through my post.

 

I've always figured you need to be at 12 wins by the All Star break to have a 50/50 shot at 20. Let's look at remaining starts, roughly:

 

Team games left: 70

Starts per player left: 14

Assuming a starter gets 4 out of every 5 decisions, that leaves 11 decisions left.

 

Chris Sale: 9-4 record. To get to 20 wins, he needs to go 11-0 in his remaining decisions. That would be a miracle, but he does look unbeatable right now.

Rick Porcello & Eduardo Rodriguez: 11-3 record. To get to 20 wins, they need to go 9-2 down the stretch in their remaining decisions. They're actually pitching to that pace.

David Price: 9-6 record. I don't see him going 11-0 ...

[FredLynn]

I don't know about his leadership, but he is a potent bat against left handed pitching, and we needed that.

 

Pearce has an OPS over .900 v both LHP and RHP this year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pearce is a roleplayer, a lot like Chris Young or Johnny Gomes. He's on a rampage right now, but even when he cools down, he'll still be a solid platoon guy.

 

He kills lefties. Always had. He’s a very nice complement to your club

[Kimmi]

Pearce is a roleplayer, a lot like Chris Young or Johnny Gomes. He's on a rampage right now, but even when he cools down, he'll still be a solid platoon guy.

 

^^This.

[mvp 78]

Marco Hernandez just underwent season ending shoulder surgery. He'll rollover his 2 option years into next year.

[moonslav59]

Still a .257 lifetime hitter with little pop.

 

True, but he's been a little better since 2014:

 

.269 vs LHPs but a very decent .346 OBP.

 

Overall since 2014:

 

.268/.343

 

More than decent.

 

Interestingly, look at the OBP vs SLG since 2014L

 

.486 SLG (36th rank).

 

.343 OBP (86th rank)

 

[Dojji]

Still a .257 lifetime hitter with little pop.

 

Mediocre contact hitter yes, that's why he platoons.

 

"little pop?" He's got a career .189 ISO. That's at least halfway decent. You're not exactly going to get Paul Goldschmidt for the bench 1B/OF role.

 

He's a fine roleplayer in a platoon/reserve role. and he's done very well for us in the short term, more than acceptable.

 

Pearce's career slash line, .257/.333/.447/.780, is actually excellent for a reserve hitter. Anything very much better than that is probably finding a starting job somewhere in this offense-starved league. I was frankly amazed that we could grab Pearce from a division rival that cheaply, he's a solid asset, and if the Jays had held onto him til the deadline, they could have probably pulled at least a promising RP out of someone for him.

Edited July 10, 2018 by Dojji

[moonslav59]

Marco Hernandez just underwent season ending shoulder surgery. He'll rollover his 2 option years into next year.

 

What a shame.

 

I've always had high hopes for Marco, but I guess he's just been snake-bitten.

[moonslav59]

It's been a while, but here is an update on the bottom of the order since the start of summer:

 

Sox

56-203 (.276)

4-11 (7/10)

1-9 (7/9)

3-13 (7/8)

4-16 (7/7)

3-13 (7/6)

1-9 (7/4) w/pitcher hitting

3-11 (7/3) w/pitcher hitting

2-9 (7/2) w/pitcher hitting

0-9 (7/1)

4-15 (6/30)

0-9 (6/29)

4-9 (6/28)

6-12 (6/27)

5-12 (6/26)

4-8 (6/24)

1-10 (6/23)

6-15 (6/22)

5-13 (6/21)

 

[notin]

Still a .257 lifetime hitter with little pop.

 

We weren’t going to get Jose Abreu for Santiago Espinal...

[Spudboy]

We weren’t going to get Jose Abreu for Santiago Espinal...

 

No s***?

 

I continue to learn so much about the game from so many people on this board.

[Larry Cook]

What a shame.

 

I've always had high hopes for Marco, but I guess he's just been snake-bitten.

 

It really is a shame. Hopefully this fixes him up and he stays healthy for the rest of his career!