A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Nick]

Moon, you're numbers guy....

 

We have two years of Betts, no gurantee of re-signing him in two years. What can we get in trade for Betts after we win the world series this year?

 

Luxury tax limit goes up to $206M for 2019. Based on this year's budget, then our ceiling is $246M.

 

I'm assuming Sox is willing to extend Betts at any price, but he's not interested. KEEP THAT IN MIND.

 

Here we go.

 

Tade Porcello, Xander, Bradley and Betts. Surely we're able to get one or two young, cost controlled, starting pitchers. One should be major league ready.

 

Porcello $20.625 M

Hanley $22.000 M (option not vested)

Xander $7.050 M

Bradley $6.100 M

Kelly $3.825 M (FA)

Betts $10.500 M

Pom $ 8.500 M (FA)

total $78.600 M

 

With starting AAV of $235,325,600, we rid of $78,600,00 and get down to $156,725,600. With a budget of $246M, we have available $89,274,400. Note that we have rid of high priced arbitration players. Arbitration raises will not be a big issue in 2019 after the trades.

 

Sign Machado and Harper at $33M AAV, you can front load it but have an opt out after 5 years (they are still young, make the first 5 years at $35M). Re-sign Kimbrel at $18M or $5M pay increase. Total FA signing is thus $71M and leaving the Sox with $18M for arbitration increase. With no other signings, we still have cushion to sign perhaps another bat on the cheap. Our line up would look like this.

 

Beni, Harper, Machado, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquz, Nunez or DH signing. Compare it to Beni, Betts, Xander, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazques and JBJ. Less defense but overall more power.

 

The beauty is we don't have to worry about losing Xander and Betts and getting nothing in return.

 

In essence, we are paying Harper what we would have paid Betts but now we get something in return. Someone would love to have Betts for two years, I bet. We should get a young starter in return, at minimum.

 

Pitching staff? We'll still have Price, Sale and E Rod. We should get a fourth starter in Betts trade and we have Wright and others for 5th spot. This rotation is serviceable.

 

We can then sign Sale in 2020 using the $18M in relief we get from Pablo's contract. We still have Kimbrel and our bullpen I think will be fine.

 

This is being pro active and money works. There will be new CBA by 2023 and luxury tax will again go up.

 

It really is a perfect time to extend our championship. window.

 

I would pay to go watch Harper, Machado, JD, Devers and Beni. What's the down side?

Edited June 7, 2018 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Betts is better than Harper or Machado tho???

[oldtimer]

Moon, you're numbers guy....

 

We have two years of Betts, no gurantee of re-signing him in two years. What can we get in trade for Betts after we win the world series this year?

 

Luxury tax limit goes up to $206M for 2019. Based on this year's budget, then our ceiling is $246M.

 

I'm assuming Sox is willing to extend Betts at any price, but he's not interested. KEEP THAT IN MIND.

 

Here we go.

 

Tade Porcello, Xander, Bradley and Betts. Surely we're able to get one or two young, cost controlled, starting pitchers. One should be major league ready.

 

Porcello $20.625 M

Hanley $22.000 M (option not vested)

Xander $7.050 M

Bradley $6.100 M

Kelly $3.825 M (FA)

Betts $10.500 M

Pom $ 8.500 M (FA)

total $78.600 M

 

With starting AAV of $235,325,600, we rid of $78,600,00 and get down to $156,725,600. With a budget of $246M, we have available $89,274,400. Note that we have rid of high priced arbitration players. Arbitration raises will not be a big issue in 2019 after the trades.

 

Sign Machado and Harper at $33M AAV, you can front load it but have an opt out after 5 years (they are still young, make the first 5 years at $35M). Re-sign Kimbrel at $18M or $5M pay increase. Total FA signing is thus $71M and leaving the Sox with $18M for arbitration increase. With no other signings, we still have cushion to sign perhaps another bat on the cheap. Our line up would look like this.

 

Beni, Harper, Machado, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquz, Nunez or DH signing. Compare it to Beni, Betts, Xander, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazques and JBJ. Less defense but overall more power.

 

The beauty is we don't have to worry about losing Xander and Betts and getting nothing in return.

 

In essence, we are paying Harper what we would have paid Betts but now we get something in return. Someone would love to have Betts for two years, I bet. We should get a young starter in return, at minimum.

 

Pitching staff? We'll still have Price, Sale and E Rod. We should get a fourth starter in Betts trade and we have Wright and others for 5th spot. This rotation is serviceable.

 

We can then sign Sale in 2020 using the $18M in relief we get from Pablo's contract. We still have Kimbrel and our bullpen I think will be fine.

 

This is being pro active and money works. There will be new CBA by 2023 and luxury tax will again go up.

 

It really is a perfect time to extend our championship. window.

 

I would pay to go watch Harper, Machado, JD, Devers and Beni. What's the down side?

 

This discussion goes on and on but there are always good points raised. I am older and a traditionalist, in that I would like to keep our best players and resign them to long term contracts. Not getting in to the pitching side, I would say our high priority resigns when they come due are 1) Betts, 2) Beni, 3) Bogaerts, and I hope that JDM doesn't opt out of his contract as he looks like the best DH in baseball. Maybe Vaz to keep at least one catcher.

 

I don't see making a major effort to keep JBJ, Devers, or even Moreland when his contract runs out, but if he is still producing and our young studs are a year away I wouldn't be against it. Nunez is replaceable but not that expensive and maybe we will find some new catching prospects. Pedey may be around but I wouldn't count on him due to his knee issues. Holt may last a few more years and is not that expensive.

 

I would be looking for a third baseman, a centerfielder, a catcher and a second baseman.

 

So we have little in the minor leagues that can help us. Chavis might make the grade at 3rd,Brannen is a great athlete and very young but has been tarnished by his lack of hitting and the new draft are probably not able to make the jump until 2021. So it the trade market or FA's, but what money will be available?

[Bellhorn04]

Wait a minute. the seven game series only become dramatic when they go to 7 games. Nothing dramatic about a 4 game sweep--unless you are Sox fans in 2004 and 2007.

 

Regardless, I think most fans would much rather see a 7 game World Series than a 1 game Super Baseball Bowl. Baseball is a game that people like to watch in quantity.

[moonslav59]

Moon, you're numbers guy....

 

We have two years of Betts, no gurantee of re-signing him in two years. What can we get in trade for Betts after we win the world series this year?

 

Luxury tax limit goes up to $206M for 2019. Based on this year's budget, then our ceiling is $246M.

 

I'm assuming Sox is willing to extend Betts at any price, but he's not interested. KEEP THAT IN MIND.

 

Here we go.

 

Tade Porcello, Xander, Bradley and Betts. Surely we're able to get one or two young, cost controlled, starting pitchers. One should be major league ready.

 

Porcello $20.625 M

Hanley $22.000 M (option not vested)

Xander $7.050 M

Bradley $6.100 M

Kelly $3.825 M (FA)

Betts $10.500 M

Pom $ 8.500 M (FA)

total $78.600 M

 

With starting AAV of $235,325,600, we rid of $78,600,00 and get down to $156,725,600. With a budget of $246M, we have available $89,274,400. Note that we have rid of high priced arbitration players. Arbitration raises will not be a big issue in 2019 after the trades.

 

Sign Machado and Harper at $33M AAV, you can front load it but have an opt out after 5 years (they are still young, make the first 5 years at $35M). Re-sign Kimbrel at $18M or $5M pay increase. Total FA signing is thus $71M and leaving the Sox with $18M for arbitration increase. With no other signings, we still have cushion to sign perhaps another bat on the cheap. Our line up would look like this.

 

Beni, Harper, Machado, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquz, Nunez or DH signing. Compare it to Beni, Betts, Xander, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazques and JBJ. Less defense but overall more power.

 

The beauty is we don't have to worry about losing Xander and Betts and getting nothing in return.

 

In essence, we are paying Harper what we would have paid Betts but now we get something in return. Someone would love to have Betts for two years, I bet. We should get a young starter in return, at minimum.

 

Pitching staff? We'll still have Price, Sale and E Rod. We should get a fourth starter in Betts trade and we have Wright and others for 5th spot. This rotation is serviceable.

 

We can then sign Sale in 2020 using the $18M in relief we get from Pablo's contract. We still have Kimbrel and our bullpen I think will be fine.

 

This is being pro active and money works. There will be new CBA by 2023 and luxury tax will again go up.

 

It really is a perfect time to extend our championship. window.

 

I would pay to go watch Harper, Machado, JD, Devers and Beni. What's the down side?

 

I can't go along with any plan that does not include Betts.

 

I want to keep Sale, too.

 

If we win a ring, I'd be okay with looking to trade Porcello and maybe Bogey.

 

Devers is too far away to even consider.

 

I would not pay Kimbrel.

 

Again, assuming we win this year.

[moonslav59]

Betts is better than Harper or Machado tho???

 

Agreed.

[S5Dewey]

I beg to differ. The genius of March Madness is single game elimination.

 

 

Now c'mon. If you want to say the seven games series in basketball is for money I'll buy that, but extending that theory to compare it with baseball is hooey.

 

The reason March madness works so well is because basketball has no single impact player who doesn't play in every game and baseball does. This [stupid] one game format strongly favors the team that wraps up their division first so they can get their #1 pitcher rested and ready for that one game playoff. At the same time the WC team has to start whomever's turn it is in the rotation. In a game that's controlled by pitching that's a HUGE advantage and it could very well go to the weaker team. It trivializes the regular season.

[moonslav59]

Both wild card teams are pretty much lucky to even get a chance at moving on, even if one has the second best record in the league.

 

In the old days, just two made it, and often the guy in second place in one division had a better record than the winner from the other. Was that fair?

 

I hate the 1 game play-in, but it's better than making every body wait 5-6 days to play, and it's better than just having 4 teams make the playoffs.

 

There's 30 teams now. 4 out of 30 is rough on 26 teams.

[moonslav59]

Help keep soxprospects.com going...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/donate.htm

[a700hitter]

help keep soxprospects.com going...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/donate.htm

lol!!

[Spudboy]

Help keep soxprospects.com going...

 

http://www.soxprospects.com/donate.htm

 

Why?

[Spudboy]

lol!!

 

Exactly.

[sk7326]

But the divisions tend to be very unbalanced. It's debatable how much of a reward a team should get for winning one of the weak divisions.

 

That is fair. I prefer four divisions myself. Given that - the current result is fine.

[Nick]

I can't go along with any plan that does not include Betts.

 

I want to keep Sale, too.

 

If we win a ring, I'd be okay with looking to trade Porcello and maybe Bogey.

 

Devers is too far away to even consider.

 

I would not pay Kimbrel.

 

Again, assuming we win this year.

 

If you are DD, you're just going to sit on your ass and 'hope' Betts sign? No back up plan? What if he just wants out?

 

No one can convince me Betts is much BETTER than Harper.

 

You have two free agents this winter that are young and have productive years in front of them. Machado is better value at ss than Xander.

 

DD is the type that thinks big. I'll go forward with core group of Harper, Machado, Martinez, Beni and Devers.

[moonslav59]

If you are DD, you're just going to sit on your ass and 'hope' Betts sign? No back up plan? What if he just wants out?

 

No one can convince me Betts is much BETTER than Harper.

 

You have two free agents this winter that are young and have productive years in front of them. Machado is better value at ss than Xander.

 

DD is the type that thinks big. I'll go forward with core group of Harper, Machado, Martinez, Beni and Devers.

 

I never said Betts or nothing. My plan would be not to trade Betts. I'd try to sign him, but if he bolts, I'd take the comp pick and use the Betts money somewhere else. It's not complicated.

[moonslav59]

[/b]

Why?

 

Because it's a great site.

[Maxbialystock]

[/b]

 

Because it's a great site.

 

Really? I go there now and then but didn't know how credible they are.

[a700hitter]

[/b]

 

Because it's a great site.

If it is so great, they should get sponsors.

[Spudboy]

If it is so great, they should get sponsors.

 

Exactly.

 

If they were a charity and performed a public service I could see donating to them.

 

They are a site like Talksox. They post stuff about a hobby. Nothing they do is of benefit to the public at large.

[OH FOY]

I pay for Perfect Game, better site, its run by Scouts.

[moonslav59]

If it is so great, they should get sponsors.

 

I'm a sponsor- you could be too

[MADSTORK]

Moon, you're numbers guy....

 

We have two years of Betts, no gurantee of re-signing him in two years. What can we get in trade for Betts after we win the world series this year?

 

Luxury tax limit goes up to $206M for 2019. Based on this year's budget, then our ceiling is $246M.

 

I'm assuming Sox is willing to extend Betts at any price, but he's not interested. KEEP THAT IN MIND.

 

Here we go.

 

Tade Porcello, Xander, Bradley and Betts. Surely we're able to get one or two young, cost controlled, starting pitchers. One should be major league ready.

 

Porcello $20.625 M

Hanley $22.000 M (option not vested)

Xander $7.050 M

Bradley $6.100 M

Kelly $3.825 M (FA)

Betts $10.500 M

Pom $ 8.500 M (FA)

total $78.600 M

 

With starting AAV of $235,325,600, we rid of $78,600,00 and get down to $156,725,600. With a budget of $246M, we have available $89,274,400. Note that we have rid of high priced arbitration players. Arbitration raises will not be a big issue in 2019 after the trades.

 

Sign Machado and Harper at $33M AAV, you can front load it but have an opt out after 5 years (they are still young, make the first 5 years at $35M). Re-sign Kimbrel at $18M or $5M pay increase. Total FA signing is thus $71M and leaving the Sox with $18M for arbitration increase. With no other signings, we still have cushion to sign perhaps another bat on the cheap. Our line up would look like this.

 

Beni, Harper, Machado, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazquz, Nunez or DH signing. Compare it to Beni, Betts, Xander, JD, Moreland, Pedroia, Devers, Vazques and JBJ. Less defense but overall more power.

 

The beauty is we don't have to worry about losing Xander and Betts and getting nothing in return.

 

In essence, we are paying Harper what we would have paid Betts but now we get something in return. Someone would love to have Betts for two years, I bet. We should get a young starter in return, at minimum.

 

Pitching staff? We'll still have Price, Sale and E Rod. We should get a fourth starter in Betts trade and we have Wright and others for 5th spot. This rotation is serviceable.

 

We can then sign Sale in 2020 using the $18M in relief we get from Pablo's contract. We still have Kimbrel and our bullpen I think will be fine.

 

This is being pro active and money works. There will be new CBA by 2023 and luxury tax will again go up.

 

It really is a perfect time to extend our championship. window.

 

I would pay to go watch Harper, Machado, JD, Devers and Beni. What's the down side?

 

 

You must have been drinking some of that Colorado Kool-Aid my friend? Hell, even my post are not that delusional.

 

How many times are you going to ask for or watch Boston possibly not re-sign Players who can perform under this Fan and Media scrutiny. Do you remember Lester Lackey, Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and lets add Beltre to the mix. You PAY Players who can perform here.

 

Now, Im definitely on the Harper train and his contract alone should be bought and paid for by extended ticket sales merchandise and TV ratings but my god, YOU don't trade or possibly not re-sign your own All-Stars

[kenmeister]

 

DD is the type that thinks big. I'll go forward with core group of Harper, Machado, Martinez, Beni and Devers.

 

Devers has yet to convince me that he is 'core group' material. On the other hand, I'm all board the Hector Velazquez train.

 

Not having Betts for his whole career though, man that would be a huge disappointment. On par with Jon Lester, Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs, and Mo Vaughn's early exits. I didn't get that choked up over Aaron Sele leaving however Then there's that whole Nomar thing; damn that was sad but I understood it.

[Maxbialystock]

I can't go along with any plan that does not include Betts.

 

I want to keep Sale, too.

 

If we win a ring, I'd be okay with looking to trade Porcello and maybe Bogey.

 

Devers is too far away to even consider.

 

I would not pay Kimbrel.

 

Again, assuming we win this year.

 

I like keeping guys period although I didn't mind losing Ellsbury when I saw the price. Ditto Damon. Salty. Pablo and Hanley--very expensive for the Sox because Henry is paying them to play for someone else. Manny Ramirez.

 

Right now the Sox have an awfully good nucleus of lineup players and starters: Betts, Beni, JDM, Bogie, Devers, Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Wright. That said, I would pay $30M/year for none of them even though Price is already there. I would lose him first, then Porcello, but none of the position players unless $30M/year is in play.

 

I am pretty sure the agents for Harper and Machado will insist on a minimum of $30M/year with the only question for how long. So I am interested in neither. I mention the agents because I think they are driving this train and they only get a percentage. 5%? Anyway, it's insane.

 

Oh, I do like watching Harper and Machado play. Also Trout, some of the Yankees, etc. I just don't care much whether they play for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

Do you remember Lester Lackey, Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and lets add Beltre to the mix. You PAY Players who can perform here.

 

I remember it was a great move not to re-sign Ellsbury, Damon and Pedro.

[moonslav59]

I like keeping guys period although I didn't mind losing Ellsbury when I saw the price. Ditto Damon. Salty. Pablo and Hanley--very expensive for the Sox because Henry is paying them to play for someone else. Manny Ramirez.

 

Right now the Sox have an awfully good nucleus of lineup players and starters: Betts, Beni, JDM, Bogie, Devers, Sale, Price, Porcello, ERod, and Wright. That said, I would pay $30M/year for none of them even though Price is already there. I would lose him first, then Porcello, but none of the position players unless $30M/year is in play.

 

I am pretty sure the agents for Harper and Machado will insist on a minimum of $30M/year with the only question for how long. So I am interested in neither. I mention the agents because I think they are driving this train and they only get a percentage. 5%? Anyway, it's insane.

 

Oh, I do like watching Harper and Machado play. Also Trout, some of the Yankees, etc. I just don't care much whether they play for the Sox.

 

I'm not for spending $30+M on Harper or Machado.

 

I would pay Betts $30M x 10 this winter as an extension that begins after his control years end. (I'd pay him $18M for 2019 and $22M for 2020 to buy out his arb years).

 

I'd try to keep Sale, too, but having 3 guys making over $30M is probably undo-able.

[Nick]

You must have been drinking some of that Colorado Kool-Aid my friend? Hell, even my post are not that delusional.

 

How many times are you going to ask for or watch Boston possibly not re-sign Players who can perform under this Fan and Media scrutiny. Do you remember Lester Lackey, Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and lets add Beltre to the mix. You PAY Players who can perform here.

 

Now, Im definitely on the Harper train and his contract alone should be bought and paid for by extended ticket sales merchandise and TV ratings but my god, YOU don't trade or possibly not re-sign your own All-Stars

 

It's all about missed opportunities. Betts has no interest other than to become a free agent. I'm saying that you offer him what you are going to pay Harper. If he's not interested than trade him.

 

You LOCK up players you want for future. I want Betts. I want Sale.

 

I would do to Sale what Sox did with Porcello. Give him a contract that he can't refuse. You sign it April of 2019 to take effect 2020. No effect on AAV for 2019 season and no luxury tax implication for 2019.

 

But if Betts refuse Harper money, then you move on.

 

NOTHING f***ING DELUSIONAL. Target your best players and pay them what they are worth. DON'T f***ING LESTER BETTS. Pay him whatever he wants. THAT'S MY POINT.

Edited June 9, 2018 by Nick

[moonslav59]

It's all about missed opportunities. Betts has no interest other than to become a free agent. I'm saying that you offer him what you are going to pay Harper. If he's not interested than trade him.

 

You LOCK up players you want for future. I want Betts. I want Sale.

 

I would do to Sale what Sox did with Porcello. Give him a contract that he can't refuse. You sign it April of 2019 to take effect 2020. No effect on AAV for 2019 season and no luxury tax implication for 2019.

 

But if Betts refuse Harper money, then you move on.

 

NOTHING f***ING DELUSIONAL. Target your best players and pay them what they are worth. DON'T f***ING LESTER BETTS. Pay him whatever he wants. THAT'S MY POINT.

 

You mentioned trading Betts, assuming we win a WS this year, and then spending large and long on Machado & Harper.

 

That doesn't sound like you want Betts as much as some of us.

 

Betts is the best fielding RF'er I've ever seen. In Fenway, that's a huge plus. I'll sign Betts over Harper, and my guess is Betts will take what Harper gets.

 

No, you're not delusional to want Harper over Betts, but I'm going with Betts.

 

No way am I paying Machado 33, Harper 33 and Price 31 and then scramble to hobble together the rest of the team by not going over the $40M mark. No Sale. It's a pipe dream thinking Pablo's money plus what Sale makes now is going to be available, and if it is, we'll have nobody left but scrub farm guys that are currently ranked very lowly.

 

You really think it is prudent roster construction to spend $130M on 4 guys?

 

You think Henry is going to pay a 50% tax for 4-5 years in a row?

 

I don't.

 

We are going to need players making mid-level money to have any chance to extend the window.

 

Signing anyone to $30M might not even be in the plans, let alone 3 more.

 

[kenmeister]

Good morning everyone. I’m officially worried about the Red Sox now. The pitching is great, the offense on life support. I realize with Betts & JDM back in the lineup it’s better, but I think we have too many dead bats any way you slice it.

 

Ironically, part of the solution is to demote JBJ and promote Castillo, but my understanding is that they won’t do it for salary cap reasons. Really a shame.

 

I was on the Swihart bandwagon but I’ve lost it. The guy can’t hit.

 

Devers skipped AAA I believe and it shows. Not everyone can do it. Oh for a Travis Shaw...

 

Moreland is coming back down to career norms now, just as he cooled off last year.

 

Bogaerts will never be as good as he was. He’s not the problem though. Nor is super utility man Brock Holt.

 

Nunez as a utility player is great too, but overexposed as an everyday player. And Pedroia’s not coming back I fear.

 

Sam Travis? Not the solution.

 

Vazquez’s poor offense should be the one player we can live with it from.

 

I hope they make some big trades soon.

[notin]

Do you remember Lester Lackey, Ellsbury, Damon, Pedro and lets add Beltre to the mix. You PAY Players who can perform here.

 

I remember it was a great move not to re-sign Ellsbury, Damon and Pedro.

 

And where was Damon going to play anyway? He could barely handle CF, and he couldn't even make the throw from RF to shallow RF. So was he going to start over Manny in LF or Otiz at DH? Those appear to be the options..