A Realistic View at 2018: Part II

[Nick]

In hindsight, I'd undo Price, Pom and Thornburg, but that's not really a fair way at looking at the issue.

 

As I've said several times before, I'm happy with DD's overall plan to build a 4-5 year window, but I am not sugar coating the fact that this team will have serious problems by 2020 or 2021.

 

I just don't think we'll be in as bad shape as you think. Big thing is we have $$$$.

 

2020 Price, E Rod, Wright, Mookie, JBJ, Beni, JD, Devers, Pedroia, Vaz, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Maddox, Johnson and Velaz. Basically we have $71M committed. Wright, Mookie, JBJ in their last arbitration years. Say a payroll budget of $240M, we have $170M to cover arbitration players plus acquisitions.

 

OF of Beni, JBJ and Betts should be one of the best. JD will be DH (we will give him a new contract before he gets away) We'll need a SS and 1B.

 

Bottom line is we will always have enough money to field a competitive team.

 

I'm just not as pessimistic as many of you. Obviously we can't be Pabloed with completely worthless production.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Nick

[notin]

I just don't think we'll be in as bad shape as you think. Big thing is we have $$$$.

 

2020 Price, E Rod, Wright, Mookie, JBJ, Beni, JD, Devers, Pedroia, Vaz, Smith, Barnes, Hembree, Maddox, Johnson and Velaz. Basically we have $71M committed. Wright, Mookie, JBJ in their last arbitration years. Say a payroll budget of $240M, we have $170M to cover arbitration players plus acquisitions.

 

OF of Beni, JBJ and Betts should be one of the best. JD will be DH (we will give him a new contract before he gets away) We'll need a SS and 1B.

 

Bottom line is we will always have enough money to field a competitive team.

 

I'm just as pessimistic as many of you. Obviously we can't be Pabloed.

 

The Sox will also need pitching. Price turns 33 this year. Wright turns 34 in a couple months. In 2021, these pitchers will be turning 36 and 37 respectively. While Wright has an advantage by being a knuckleballer, that still doesn' guarantee he will be as effective in 3 years.

 

ERod is good to have, and hopefully his injuries are behind him.

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at our top pitching draft picks over the years. While many never panned out, some were traded for pretty good players.

 

2003

2 rd, Abe Alvarez

4 rd. Pablebon

 

2004

3 rd. Andrew Dobies

4 rd. Tommy Hottovy

5 rd. Ryan Scroyer

6 rd. Cla Meredith

 

2005

#26 Craig Hansen (part of Manny for j Bay trade)

#42 Clay Buchholz

#47 Michael Bowden

 

2006

#28 Daniel Bard

#40 Kris Johnson

#44 Caleb Clay

#71 Justin Masterson (Traded for VMart)

 

2007

#55 Nick Hagadone (part of VMart trade)

(18th round- Hunter Strickland)

 

2008

#30 Casey Kelly (part of AGon trade)

#45 Bryan Price

#85 Stephen Fife (part of Erik Bedard trade)

#108 Kyle Weiland (part of Lowrie for Melancon trade)

 

2009

#28 Reymond Fuentes (part of AGon trade)

#77 Alex Wilson (part of Cespedes for Porcello trade)

 

2010

#39 Anthony Ranaudo (traded for Robbie Ross)

#57 Brandon Workman

 

2011

#18 Matt Barnes

#36 Henry Owens

#143 Noe rRmirez

 

2012

#31 Brian Johnson

#37 Pat Light (traded for Abad)

#87 Jamie Callahan (part of A Reed trade)

#118 Austin Maddox

#151 Ty Buttrey

#211 Justin Haley

 

2013

#7 Trey Ball

#45 teddy Stankiewicz

#113 Myles Smith

#263 Kyle Martin

 

2014

#33 Michael Kopech (big part of Sale trade)

#103 Jake Cosart

(#374 Jalen Beeks)

 

2015

#171 Travis Lakins

#201 Ben Taylor

#231 Logan Allen (part of Kimbrel trade)

(#411 Bobby Poyner)

 

2016

#12 Jay Groome

#88 Shaun Anderson (part of Nunez trade)

#148 Mike Shawaryn

#178 Stephen Nogosek (part of A Reed trade)

 

2017

#24 Tanner Houck

#131 Jake Thompson

#161 Alex Scherff

 

2018

#100 Durbin Feltman

 

As you can see, there are very few Sox top 20 draft picks used on pitchers.

 

Many that never amounted to much were traded before that was realized.

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

The Sox will also need pitching. Price turns 33 this year. Wright turns 34 in a couple months. In 2021, these pitchers will be turning 36 and 37 respectively. While Wright has an advantage by being a knuckleballer, that still doesn' guarantee he will be as effective in 3 years.

 

ERod is good to have, and hopefully his injuries are behind him.

 

We are going to need someone within our system to step up. Velazquez, Beeks, Mata and Groome are our best bets.

 

Free agents will be very expensive, even if mid level signings.

 

I seriously doubt Price opts out, so our 2020 rotation might look like this:

 

(Sale at $33+M)

Price

ERod

Wright

Velazquez/Beeks/Shawaryn

 

2021

(Sale)

Price

ERod

FA or Velazquez/Beeks/Shawaryn

FA or Groome/Mata/Houck/D Hernandez

 

[S5Dewey]

The Sox will also need pitching. Price turns 33 this year. Wright turns 34 in a couple months. In 2021, these pitchers will be turning 36 and 37 respectively. While Wright has an advantage by being a knuckleballer, that still doesn' guarantee he will be as effective in 3 years.

 

ERod is good to have, and hopefully his injuries are behind him.

 

Not to derail this thread with another subject, but speaking of young pitching and the shortage of it, is anyone else surprised that the Sox top two draft picks this year aren't pitchers? (I haven't seen what they've done today yet)

[moonslav59]

Not to derail this thread with another subject, but speaking of young pitching and the shortage of it, is anyone else surprised that the Sox top two draft picks this year aren't pitchers? (I haven't seen what they've done today yet)

 

I'm not surprised. We have no luck with drafting pitchers.

[Slasher9]

Maybe Travis Shaw is the poster child for keeping Swihart around. IIRC Shaw had a horrible season - two half seasons consecutively) and had lots of chances to redeem himself in Boston and failed. Now he's playing like a Major Leaguer in Milwaukee. IMO this could happen with Swihart too. It's the chance you take when you trade someone.

 

I agree with the window or not but I don't foresee the dreaded cliff. "Cliff" to me implies finishing last in the division for a couple of years. IMO the team may be non-competitive for a year or two, finishing 3rd while they reload but right now we're in this window and we need to make the best of it.

 

In short, I'd rather have the players we have and win 100 games this year than not have a couple of them and win 90 so we can make a run in 2021.

 

Shaw is a perfect example of a small market player. dude couldnt handle the Boston pressure. he is thriving in Milwaukee. if he stayed here he would not have had the same level of success. IMO

[Slasher9]

Hindsight being 20/20 I'd consider undoing the Price contract but no one could foresee what was going to happen in terms of Price's health or the decline in pay of starting pitchers. So I have no major gripe with the contract. You do what you have to do with the conditions in place at the time.

Even right now I wouldn't undo it though. Yes, he's overpaid for what he's contributing, but my next question would be who could we sign (not who would we LIKE to sign, but who COULD we sign?) to take his place for less money.

I've been critical of Price, especially for his lack of success in the playoffs, but I've now resigned myself to his not being a true Ace but instead a #2 guy. I believe that in a worst case scenario he will help the Sox get to the playoffs. What he does after that is what scares me. BUT.. we have our Ace. It's Chris Freakin' SALE!

 

i was begging DD to sign Cueto for less years and way less $$$ instead of Mr Tingles.

no way price opts out so our only hope is for him to find the fountain of youth for the rest of this season and help get us a parade. As a #2 when pitching like he is capable of i would put him up against any other #2...

[Slasher9]

Not to derail this thread with another subject, but speaking of young pitching and the shortage of it, is anyone else surprised that the Sox top two draft picks this year aren't pitchers? (I haven't seen what they've done today yet)

yup.

apparently by the time 26 came along there were no more arms?!?!?

[jacksonianmarch]

McLanahan was available. Lefty who tops out over 100 with a wipeout slider and some recent control issues.

[Maxbialystock]

My realistic view on June 6 (74 years after D-Day) is that, after last night's bravura start by Wright and great catching by Vazquez, the rotation and overall pitching are in pretty good shape--team ERA 3.56, which should get better.

 

And the hitting is better than it should be with Mookie out. Guys are rising to the occasion. If Wright had started game 1 at Houston instead of worthless Pom, the Sox take 3 of 4. Without Mookie.

 

I'm a big Pedroia fan, but he isn't missed--yet. Especially with lefty/righty Holt/Nunez available.

 

Best of all, Swihart is still on the roster. What a gem they picked way back in 2011. This guy can do everything--catcher, infielder, outfielder, you name it. Cora just needs to play him regularly.

[moonslav59]

My realistic view on June 6 (74 years after D-Day) is that, after last night's bravura start by Wright and great catching by Vazquez, the rotation and overall pitching are in pretty good shape--team ERA 3.56, which should get better.

 

And the hitting is better than it should be with Mookie out. Guys are rising to the occasion. If Wright had started game 1 at Houston instead of worthless Pom, the Sox take 3 of 4. Without Mookie.

 

I'm a big Pedroia fan, but he isn't missed--yet. Especially with lefty/righty Holt/Nunez available.

 

Best of all, Swihart is still on the roster. What a gem they picked way back in 2011. This guy can do everything--catcher, infielder, outfielder, you name it. Cora just needs to play him regularly.

 

Swihart is "best of all?"

 

How about this?

 

Without Pedey, with Betts and others missing time, with Devers below .700 and our catchers hitting about .500, we're one run from the league lead. Our slugging % is .003 below the much-vaunted Yanks.

 

Our ERA- is second only to the Astros in the AL and beats the yanks by 5 (82 to 87). That, with 4 starts from outside our 5 man rotation and a bunch of guys on the DL.

 

Surprisingly, our defense, as measured by UZR/150 is second only to CLE in the AL. (To be fair, DRS has us at -21 for 24th place in MLB.)

 

Looking good!

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

Swihart is "best of all?"

 

How about this?

 

Without Pedey, with Betts and others missing time, with Devers below .700 and our catchers hitting about .500, we're one run from the league lead. Our slugging % is .003 below the much-vaunted Yanks.

 

Our ERA- is second only to the Astros in the AL and beats the yanks by 5 (82 to 87). That, with 4 starts from outside our 5 man rotation and a bunch of guys on the DL.

 

Surprisingly, our defense, as measured by UZR/150 is second only to CLE in the AL. (To be fair, DRS has us at -21 for 24th place in MLB.)

 

Looking good!

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Alex!

[bkzwhitestrican]

Swihart is "best of all?"

 

How about this?

 

Without Pedey, with Betts and others missing time, with Devers below .700 and our catchers hitting about .500, we're one run from the league lead. Our slugging % is .003 below the much-vaunted Yanks.

 

Our ERA- is second only to the Astros in the AL and beats the yanks by 5 (82 to 87). That, with 4 starts from outside our 5 man rotation and a bunch of guys on the DL.

 

Surprisingly, our defense, as measured by UZR/150 is second only to CLE in the AL. (To be fair, DRS has us at -21 for 24th place in MLB.)

 

Looking good!

 

 

 

 

 

So are you saying the Sox are overachieving or underachieving?

[moonslav59]

So are you saying the Sox are overachieving or underachieving?

 

I'll leave that to the reader.

 

We're doing better than one would expect given the aspects I listed, but a few players not reaching expectations or getting hurt is expected.

 

We're looking good, but I expected that. Did you?

Edited June 6, 2018 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Swihart is "best of all?"

 

How about this?

 

Without Pedey, with Betts and others missing time, with Devers below .700 and our catchers hitting about .500, we're one run from the league lead. Our slugging % is .003 below the much-vaunted Yanks.

 

Our ERA- is second only to the Astros in the AL and beats the yanks by 5 (82 to 87). That, with 4 starts from outside our 5 man rotation and a bunch of guys on the DL.

 

Surprisingly, our defense, as measured by UZR/150 is second only to CLE in the AL. (To be fair, DRS has us at -21 for 24th place in MLB.)

 

Looking good!

 

 

 

 

 

The Swihart bit was facetiousness run amuck. Sorry. All else was sincere, but you did it better.

[vegasbob]

Here's a look at our top pitching draft picks over the years. While many never panned out, some were traded for pretty good players.

 

2003

2 rd, Abe Alvarez

4 rd. Pablebon

 

2004

3 rd. Andrew Dobies

4 rd. Tommy Hottovy

5 rd. Ryan Scroyer

6 rd. Cla Meredith

 

2005

#26 Craig Hansen (part of Manny for j Bay trade)

#42 Clay Buchholz

#47 Michael Bowden

 

2006

#28 Daniel Bard

#40 Kris Johnson

#44 Caleb Clay

#71 Justin Masterson (Traded for VMart)

 

2007

#55 Nick Hagadone (part of VMart trade)

(18th round- Hunter Strickland)

 

2008

#30 Casey Kelly (part of AGon trade)

#45 Bryan Price

#85 Stephen Fife (part of Erik Bedard trade)

#108 Kyle Weiland (part of Lowrie for Melancon trade)

 

2009

#28 Reymond Fuentes (part of AGon trade)

#77 Alex Wilson (part of Cespedes for Porcello trade)

 

2010

#39 Anthony Ranaudo (traded for Robbie Ross)

#57 Brandon Workman

 

2011

#18 Matt Barnes

#36 Henry Owens

#143 Noe rRmirez

 

2012

#31 Brian Johnson

#37 Pat Light (traded for Abad)

#87 Jamie Callahan (part of A Reed trade)

#118 Austin Maddox

#151 Ty Buttrey

#211 Justin Haley

 

2013

#7 Trey Ball

#45 teddy Stankiewicz

#113 Myles Smith

#263 Kyle Martin

 

2014

#33 Michael Kopech (big part of Sale trade)

#103 Jake Cosart

(#374 Jalen Beeks)

 

2015

#171 Travis Lakins

#201 Ben Taylor

#231 Logan Allen (part of Kimbrel trade)

(#411 Bobby Poyner)

 

2016

#12 Jay Groome

#88 Shaun Anderson (part of Nunez trade)

#148 Mike Shawaryn

#178 Stephen Nogosek (part of A Reed trade)

 

2017

#24 Tanner Houck

#131 Jake Thompson

#161 Alex Scherff

 

2018

#100 Durbin Feltman

 

As you can see, there are very few Sox top 20 draft picks used on pitchers.

 

Many that never amounted to much were traded before that was realized.

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for that list and all the info . Interesting to note that since the 2010 draft, the only guys pitching for Boston are Workman, Barnes, Brian Johnson, Maddox (DL), Poyner all of whom are relievers, as is the most recent draftee Durbin Feltman.

And other than Poyner, not one from the drafts of 2013 (last WS win) through this 2018 draft. Not one starting pitcher drafted , who actually threw for Boston, since Brian Johnson (spot starter at best/reliever) in 2012. Henry Owens in 2011 made a few ill fated starts in the last couple years , but is now long gone. Before that Justin Masterson in 2006 made a brief ripple before going away. Clay Buchholz in 2005 was the only draftee who had a "career" in Boston with some success but he eventually flamed out , sharing head case problems with Dan Bard.

 

Long story made short. The Sox have failed for well over 12 years to identify, draft and develop a starting pitcher who reached Fenway in a meaningful way. Somebody needs to pay !

[bkzwhitestrican]

I'll leave that to the reader.

 

We're doing better than one would expect given the aspects I listed, but a few players not reaching expectations or getting hurt is expected.

 

We're looking good, but I expected that. Did you?

 

Not really. It kind of pisses me off that the Sox are still playing so well.

[vegasbob]

Plus, while Velazquez was not "drafted", he was initially brought in by our organization.

 

Yes, Johnson and Velazquez have been brought up through the organization as pitchers but are spot starters/long relievers, with some success this year on an as needed basis. Neither is more than a #5 at best, and Wright nailed that spot down last night , although like many #5's his results are unpredictable over a full season. Also, at some point Pomeranz will show up again claiming he feels great and he will be given the shot to regain his role .

 

To start another blunt assessment, if Chris Sale is the Ace of this staff then why can't he throw 7 innings of shutout , like Steven Wright? Sale knows he won't get much run support, so he needs to be better .

[Kimmi]

Maybe going for mid level free agents for shorter deals will be the best way to go going forward.

 

It would make Kimmi happy!

 

Absolutely!

[Kimmi]

I like mid-level acquisitions.

 

Mitch Moreland. 'Nuff said.

[Kimmi]

Notin, too. Those big deals are usually way to expensive for players on the wrong side of 30.

 

This off-season does have a couple very enticing possibilities that do not fit that mold in Harper and Machado, but I think Dombrowski already spent his allowance and won't be a participant. And, really, where he spent it (JD Martinez) shouldn't give any reason for anyone to complain about that....

 

I have no complaints about the JD signing. In fact, I think Dombrowski did an excellent job of waiting JD out in the market, and getting him for a reasonable price as far as free agents go.

 

Thank goodness we're not on the hook for 10 years of Stanton.

[Kimmi]

Would you undo the Price contract?

 

It looked a lot better when there was a much stronger possibility that he might opt out after 3 good seasons in Boston. But given his off and on health, his overall performance, and the recent decline in the price of free agents his age, it does look like he will make in excess of $30,000,000 per season until he is 37 years old. And if he isn't the same pitcher DD paid for at 32, he isn't very likely to return to that level at 36 or 37...

 

I would undo the Price contract in a heartbeat. I wouldn't have done it in the first place.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for that list and all the info . Interesting to note that since the 2010 draft, the only guys pitching for Boston are Workman, Barnes, Brian Johnson, Maddox (DL), Poyner all of whom are relievers, as is the most recent draftee Durbin Feltman.

And other than Poyner, not one from the drafts of 2013 (last WS win) through this 2018 draft. Not one starting pitcher drafted , who actually threw for Boston, since Brian Johnson (spot starter at best/reliever) in 2012. Henry Owens in 2011 made a few ill fated starts in the last couple years , but is now long gone. Before that Justin Masterson in 2006 made a brief ripple before going away. Clay Buchholz in 2005 was the only draftee who had a "career" in Boston with some success but he eventually flamed out , sharing head case problems with Dan Bard.

 

Long story made short. The Sox have failed for well over 12 years to identify, draft and develop a starting pitcher who reached Fenway in a meaningful way. Somebody needs to pay !

 

I look at the list I compiled and see it differently...

 

The Trey Ball pick was bad, but many teams swing and miss on top 10 draft picks.

 

Most of our pitchers have been picked below 30.

 

Here's the list from 2010 by draft slot pick- notice how many choices were below 30th:

 

7 Trey Ball

12 Groome

18 Barnes

24 Houck

31Johnson

33 Kopech (helped get us Sale)

 

All-in-all, our top pitcher picks (considering their slots) have all pitched in the bigs or are still fairly highly regarded prospects.

 

The next tier:

36 Owens

37 Light (got us Abad)

39 Ranaudo (got us R Ross)

45 Stankiewicz

57 Workman

 

Did anyone expect greatness from these slots?

 

Or these?

87 J Callahan (helped get us A Reed)

88 S Anderson (helped get us Nunez)

103 J Cosart

 

We actually have not done too badly with later picks:

 

#118 Austin Maddox

#143 Noe Ramirez

#148 Mike Shawaryn

#151 Ty Buttrey

#171 Travis Lakins

#178 Stephen Nogosek (part of A Reed trade)

#201 Ben Taylor

#211 Justin Haley

#231 Logan Allen (part of Kimbrel trade)

#263 Kyle Martin

#374 Jalen Beeks

#411 Bobby Poyner

 

Recent later rounders:

#100 Durbin Feltman

#131 Jake Thompson

#160 Thad Ward

#161 Alex Scherff

[moonslav59]

Yes, Johnson and Velazquez have been brought up through the organization as pitchers but are spot starters/long relievers, with some success this year on an as needed basis. Neither is more than a #5 at best, and Wright nailed that spot down last night , although like many #5's his results are unpredictable over a full season. Also, at some point Pomeranz will show up again claiming he feels great and he will be given the shot to regain his role .

 

To start another blunt assessment, if Chris Sale is the Ace of this staff then why can't he throw 7 innings of shutout , like Steven Wright? Sale knows he won't get much run support, so he needs to be better .

 

Sale is currently 8th in MLB in IP'd.

 

He's gone 7 IP five times this year.

[moonslav59]

Our starting pitcher numbers (as starter only):

 

0.00 Wright (7 IP) 1-0 record in his starts

1.50 Johnson (6 IP) 1-0 in his starts

2.53 Velazquez (10.2) 2-0

3.00 Sale (81) 7-6

3.59 Porcello (80.1) 9-4

3.68 ERod (66) 11-1

4.08 Price (68.1) 8-4

6.81 Pom (37) 4-4

 

If I had told you the team would have a 11-10 record in Sale/Pom starts and was 15-1 in ERod, Wright, Velazquez and Johnson starts back in March, you'd have called me nuts.

 

We're 32-9 in non Sale-Pom starts. That's a 78% winning percentage!

 

[Spudboy]

Mitch Moreland. 'Nuff said.

 

Yeah nah they wasted 13 mil over 2 years!!!!1!!1

 

What was DD thinking?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

What an incredibly enjoyable season this has been to witness. I mean this team is kicking ass nearly every night.

[moonslav59]

We will likely hit another rough patch or two before the season ends, and all the naysayers will come out in force to say, "I told you so," but I feel this team has the fire and desire and more importantly, staying power.

 

All the way guys!

[Bellhorn04]

We will likely hit another rough patch or two before the season ends, and all the naysayers will come out in force to say, "I told you so," but I feel this team has the fire and desire and more importantly, staying power.

 

All the way guys!

 

We also have to face the prospect we could win 100 games and be in a Wild Card game.

 

Which means that Cora may not have the luxury of doing something like giving Sale that extra rest we'd like to see him get.