A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[mvp 78]

I was thinking 61.79

 

Idk, that's a lot of in game substitutions. For that to happen, Hanley would have to start about 120.33 games and Mitch would have to take over at the start of every 8th inning. Frankly, I think they may even sub in Swihart at 1b in some blowouts to get some reps. As long as Cora doesn't sub Wright in to play 1b, I'll be fine with whatever.

[moonslav59]

Idk, that's a lot of in game substitutions. For that to happen, Hanley would have to start about 120.33 games and Mitch would have to take over at the start of every 8th inning. Frankly, I think they may even sub in Swihart at 1b in some blowouts to get some reps. As long as Cora doesn't sub Wright in to play 1b, I'll be fine with whatever.

 

Well, HRam is a much worse fielder than Moreland, so any close game, where HRam is not due up to bat soon, we could see Moreland in the game. (Maybe 62 is high, since Moreland may play severalk games in this role and not get a PA.)

[mvp 78]

Well, HRam is a much worse fielder than Moreland, so any close game, where HRam is not due up to bat soon, we could see Moreland in the game. (Maybe 62 is high, since Moreland may play severalk games in this role and not get a PA.)

 

Yeah, more often than not, the guy being subbed in doesn't get an AB.

 

The real question is: will we see Mitch play any OF this year? I'm saying it's a 50/50.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, more often than not, the guy being subbed in doesn't get an AB.

 

The real question is: will we see Mitch play any OF this year? I'm saying it's a 50/50.

 

I have Nunez ahead of Moreland on the OF list, once Pedey returns.

 

I also have Swihart ahead, but that depends on how hot Swihart is.

 

JD should play the OF in NL parks, and that should really cover all the OF rest needed, if we plan it right. Other than that, a 4th OF should not really ever be needed, unless there's an injury.

[Emp9]

Well, HRam is a much worse fielder than Moreland, so any close game, where HRam is not due up to bat soon, we could see Moreland in the game. (Maybe 62 is high, since Moreland may play severalk games in this role and not get a PA.)

 

I’m sure Moreland is a better defensive 1Bman than Hanram. Thing is, it’s 1B and nobody can really tell and if they can tell it’s still 99% inconsequential... because it’s ... 1B.

[moonslav59]

I’m sure Moreland is a better defensive 1Bman than Hanram. Thing is, it’s 1B and nobody can really tell and if they can tell it’s still 99% inconsequential... because it’s ... 1B.

 

A really good 1Bman vs a ho-hum one makes more of a difference than many think it does.

 

Had we just brought Stapleton in for Buckner...

[Spudboy]

A really good 1Bman vs a ho-hum one makes more of a difference than many think it does.

 

Had we just brought Stapleton in for Buckner...

 

Or if Calvin Shiraldi had pitched effectively.

[moonslav59]

Or if Calvin Shiraldi had pitched effectively.

 

..or Stanley's WP, or...

[cp176]

..or Stanley's WP, or...

 

Billy Buck was one of my favorite baseball players. Most of us who were alive at the time remember this game vividly regardless of how many times we have tried to forget it. He shouldn't have been in the game at that time, we all pretty much know that but I always felt that the treatment he recieved at that time was really unfair and damn near tragic. As you two have mentioned (Spud and Moon) there were other things that happened along the way that could have changed the games outcome. It just wasn't meant to be I guess.

[Emp9]

A really good 1Bman vs a ho-hum one makes more of a difference than many think it does.

 

Had we just brought Stapleton in for Buckner...

 

I did say 99%

[S5Dewey]

I’m sure Moreland is a better defensive 1Bman than Hanram. Thing is, it’s 1B and nobody can really tell and if they can tell it’s still 99% inconsequential... because it’s ... 1B.

 

No no no. I wish I agreed with this post but I don't at all. A good 1B makes the team better in two ways.

He turns what would otherwise be throwing errors which allow runners to reach base (or advance) into outs with his ability to scoop balls out of the dirt.

He also makes the rest of the infielders more confident in their throws. When they know they don't have to make a perfect throw they think less about the throw and we all know that thinking about the throw is a recipe for making a bad one.

 

I agree that 1B is well down on the defensive spectrum because it doesnt require as many skills but the skills playing 1B requires are integral in having a good defensive infield.

[Bellhorn04]

No no no. I wish I agreed with this post but I don't at all. A good 1B makes the team better in two ways.

He turns what would otherwise be throwing errors which allow runners to reach base (or advance) into outs with his ability to scoop balls out of the dirt.

He also makes the rest of the infielders more confident in their throws. When they know they don't have to make a perfect throw they think less about the throw and we all know that thinking about the throw is a recipe for making a bad one.

 

I agree that 1B is well down on the defensive spectrum because it doesnt require as many skills but the skills playing 1B requires are integral in having a good defensive infield.

 

Absolutely, and a first baseman can be called on to make a lot of fielding plays on his own as well.

[moonslav59]

Billy Buck was one of my favorite baseball players. Most of us who were alive at the time remember this game vividly regardless of how many times we have tried to forget it. He shouldn't have been in the game at that time, we all pretty much know that but I always felt that the treatment he recieved at that time was really unfair and damn near tragic. As you two have mentioned (Spud and Moon) there were other things that happened along the way that could have changed the games outcome. It just wasn't meant to be I guess.

 

Yes, the way Buck was treated afterwards was a dark spot of the Sox fans reputation. Buck always gave it his all and without him, we don't even get to that awfull game.

[oldtimer]

Cora has expressed the view that it is great to have the advantage of extra ML caliber players and he intends to use them with a rotation not only including 1st base and DH but also in the outfield. That would mean that Martinez might be DH normally and Rameriz 1st base normally but Martinez might give the outfielders a rest some days while Moreland plays first and Rameriz is DH or both Rameriz and Martinez would be getting rest time as well. My view is that Moreland is an important part of the team and will get his ABs and field time.

 

Also noting that Cora has been talking to Bogaerts about his bad takes at the plate last year. Meaning taking fastballs right down the middle. He wants Bogey to be more aggressive at the plate. Bogey in spring training is hitting better and maybe part of that is the advice he has gotten from the new coaching staff. Why didn't last years staff talk to him about that?

[mvp 78]

Cora has expressed the view that it is great to have the advantage of extra ML caliber players and he intends to use them with a rotation not only including 1st base and DH but also in the outfield. That would mean that Martinez might be DH normally and Rameriz 1st base normally but Martinez might give the outfielders a rest some days while Moreland plays first and Rameriz is DH or both Rameriz and Martinez would be getting rest time as well. My view is that Moreland is an important part of the team and will get his ABs and field time.

 

Also noting that Cora has been talking to Bogaerts about his bad takes at the plate last year. Meaning taking fastballs right down the middle. He wants Bogey to be more aggressive at the plate. Bogey in spring training is hitting better and maybe part of that is the advice he has gotten from the new coaching staff. Why didn't last years staff talk to him about that?

 

They were just on cruise control.

[illinoisredsox]

Cora has expressed the view that it is great to have the advantage of extra ML caliber players and he intends to use them with a rotation not only including 1st base and DH but also in the outfield. That would mean that Martinez might be DH normally and Rameriz 1st base normally but Martinez might give the outfielders a rest some days while Moreland plays first and Rameriz is DH or both Rameriz and Martinez would be getting rest time as well. My view is that Moreland is an important part of the team and will get his ABs and field time.

 

Also noting that Cora has been talking to Bogaerts about his bad takes at the plate last year. Meaning taking fastballs right down the middle. He wants Bogey to be more aggressive at the plate. Bogey in spring training is hitting better and maybe part of that is the advice he has gotten from the new coaching staff. Why didn't last years staff talk to him about that?

 

It's not easy to overcome years of organizational philosophy; the biggest "offenders" were Pedroia, Bogaerts and Betts, system lifers. Bradley fit that to some extent as well, but I didn't see him as guilty of taking down the middle pitches (he seems to get an awful lot of borderline pitches called against him). Benintendi not so much, but he spent very little time in the minors.

 

And maybe they did but he didn't listen. The wrist injury certainly didn't help; changing hitting style while dealing with that cannot be easy.

 

Now, hopefully he learns to recognize a slider; that's been an issue for him since he came up, injured or healthy.

[moonslav59]

Cora has expressed the view that it is great to have the advantage of extra ML caliber players and he intends to use them with a rotation not only including 1st base and DH but also in the outfield. That would mean that Martinez might be DH normally and Rameriz 1st base normally but Martinez might give the outfielders a rest some days while Moreland plays first and Rameriz is DH or both Rameriz and Martinez would be getting rest time as well. My view is that Moreland is an important part of the team and will get his ABs and field time.

 

We got from April 4th to July 2nd without playing at an NL park, but then we play at Wash (July 2, 3, 4), at Philly (Aug 14 & 15) and at ATL (Sept 3, 4, 5). That's nicely spread out. We should try to plan getting JD outfield time in those NL parks to keep his bat in the line-up. He may not play all 12 NL away games, so he can get his normal days off on some of those dates. He'll likely play the OF in Miami in early April and then maybe a game here and there until July.

 

Maybe JD starts 14-18 games in the OF, assuming no injuries. If 8 or so are in NL parks, that doesn't really create that many more PAs for Moreland or HRam. They both get to play only when JD plays the OF in AL parks. Barring injury, there should only be about 170 games where they start (8 where both start).

 

[mvp 78]

I was wondering how the "organizational philosophy" impacted strikeout looking stats (one of my bigger annoyances when watching a game) and how it may or may not relate to swinging at the first pitch.

 

The league average 1st pitch swinging % was 28.1 last year. The Sox were at 20.9%. Pablo, Hanley and Nunez were the only guys above league average (100+ PA's). Betts, Bogaerts, Holt and Rutledge were all below 12%! If I was a pitcher, I'd certainly be throwing a lot of first pitch strikes.

 

If the philosophy was to simply be passive, I think the Sox would generally be more likely to have guys that are above average on striking out looking. The guys with the highest backwards K %'s (above 100 PA's) were Hanley, Sandy, Chris Young, Brock Holt, Josh Rutledge and Nunez. Unless the philosophy is "take the first pitch at all costs."

 

For the most part, that shows to me that guys like Xander, Betts and JBJ have decent pitch recognition and could probably alter their approach if told to do so.

 

What this also says to me is that they have two guys currently on the roster who swing at the first pitch well above league average and strike out looking well above league average (Hanley and Nunez). To me, that's just poor pitch recognition and a poor approach overall. They also have a guy who is much too passive at the plate and is causing him to waste at bats (Holt). Hanley and Nunez are what they are (bench bats), DFA Holt.

[mvp 78]

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/boston-red-sox-signal-theyll-keep-blake-swihart-may-trade-deven-marrero-or-brock-holt

 

Blake Swihart’s strong spring seems to have the Red Sox more inclined to deal one of their natural utility infielders, such as Brock Holt or Deven Marrero, rather than Swihart, a converted catcher with high upside who's getting a look in other roles.

 

"Sounds like they’re holding Swihart to open," a rival executive said. "More likely to move a utility guy."

 

Also:

 

There was a clear personal-catcher system for the Red Sox in 2017. Leon was Chris Sale’s guy, for example. Manager Alex Cora said he is not taking that approach. As an auxiliary effect, moving away from a personal-catcher system might make it easier for Swihart to receive more time behind the plate, if called on.

 

"Whoever I feel comfortable with that day behind the plate, he'll catch," Cora told reporters in Florida. "Christian already caught him. Sandy's going to catch him today. And then the next turn, Christian's going to catch him. Everybody's going to work with everybody."

[Nick]

Say what you will but I can't believe we're even having a discussion between Swihart and Holt.

 

Swihart was an up and comer. No one has convinced me that he won't be a very good major leaguer. Hell he may end up being our #1 catcher some day. I love Vaz but as a team our catching position provided -0.5 war, good for 3 way tie for 9th in AL.

 

Our DH position came in at -2.4, tied for 12th out of 15 AL teams.

 

Our outfielders, on the strength of Betts and his 4.0 war (good for 2nd place) came in at 4.7 as a group, good for 4th place.

 

3B came in 12th at -1.2 good for 13th place.

 

1B came in 9th at -0.8 good for 9th place.

 

SS also came in 9th at 0.1 war.

 

2B came in 10th at -0.3 war.

 

Our pitching staff was stellar, coming in 3rd place at 8.3 war.

 

Our infield needed upgrade. Devers along with healthy Xander will give us a boost.

[mvp 78]

Say what you will but I can't believe we're even having a discussion between Swihart and Holt.

 

Because fans typically obsess over the opening day roster. Not sure this should be a surprise to anyone.

[OH FOY]

I think Marrero or Holt wont be on team on Opening Day.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Marrero or Holt wont be on team on Opening Day.

 

You're right.

 

Holt can be optioned to AAA, or traded.

[OH FOY]

Trade doubt it, not with a 2.225 million salary and concussion issues.

[moonslav59]

Guys like Marrero (all glove- zero bat) are everywhere. I wouldn't be shocked if DM is traded or DFA'd, so Holt can be on the 25 man roster. Plus, we have Lin and Swihart to fill some IF needs. (Nunez will become available once Pedey returns.)

 

Personally, I'd keep marrero and send Holt to AA to start the season, but I won't be upset, if Marrero is DFA'd.

 

It's not going to come down to Holt vs Swihart.

[moonslav59]

Trade doubt it, not with a 2.225 million salary and concussion issues.

 

Makes me wonder why we offered him the arb.

 

We could trade him and pay a portion.

[Nick]

Because fans typically obsess over the opening day roster. Not sure this should be a surprise to anyone.

 

Swihart has much higher ceiling still. I question the wisdom of fans obsessing over Holt.

[Bellhorn04]

Swihart has much higher ceiling still. I question the wisdom of fans obsessing over Holt.

 

I think if anything Holt has now become somewhat of a whipping boy for some fans.

 

Dombrowski likes him, it would seem.

[dgalehouse]

Guys like Marrero (all glove- zero bat) are everywhere. I wouldn't be shocked if DM is traded or DFA'd, so Holt can be on the 25 man roster. Plus, we have Lin and Swihart to fill some IF needs. (Nunez will become available once Pedey returns.)

 

Personally, I'd keep marrero and send Holt to AA to start the season, but I won't be upset, if Marrero is DFA'd.

 

It's not going to come down to Holt vs Swihart.

[/quote. Moon , It's clear that you don't like Holt ( And Moreland ) , but AA ? Really ? That would be a slap in the face.

[harmony]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox 14th in projected WAR at third base and 22nd in projected WAR at first base:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-third-base/

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-first-base/