A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

Cora has said about Bogey that he was guilty of bad takes at the plate and that the coaches were working with him to avoid those. Cora seems to define bad takes as fastballs well in the strike zone early in the count and of course many of us were saying the same thing about him and also a few others on the team last season. It appeared to me that this was an artifact of JF and Chili Davis coaching and may have had a lot to do with the general decline of our offensive performance last year. Cora wants hitters to be more aggressive and not to take hittable pitches early in the count. I applaud that as it will give opposing pitchers something to think about before grooving the first pitch knowing our batters have been told to take the first one. We will see if Bogey has a resurgence in his batting average and possibly his power profile this year.

 

It's a double edges sword, though. A less patient approach also means you can be handled by an opposing pitcher and allow for long starts. The hallmark of the past 15 years of sox baseball has been a lineup that literally chews through pitchers. You rarely saw pitchers make it past the 6th, and most time you would see guys out after 5IP. A more aggressive approach may certainly help against pitchers who were taking advantage of a team philosophy and getting ahead due to too much patience. That's an easier adjustment. I think you've got your masher here, pitchers will be more cautious having to face or deal with JD with men on base, so the pitchers will be a bit more aggressive at the outset. But if the sox are coming out of their shoes, good pitchers will take advantage of that and get them out earlier in counts. It is a good thing for Xander, but for everyone, maybe not so much

[moonslav59]

Holt speaks of his decline after suffering the concussion and his inability to feel right until finding a new medication, which he is now taking daily. He says he feels much more normal now and that his spring training performance is reflecting it.

 

I tend to agree with your assessent of Brock. That his versatility is not of as much value to us now that we have a DH who can play in the outfield, Hanley who can play 1st base and Nunez who is flexible and will be used in utility once Pedey returns. We also have Swihart who is going to make the roster and is quite versatile. That leaves Holt fighting for the one remaining roster spot with Marrero and that spot may also dry up when Pedey returns.

 

As you point out, Brock is not the number 1 option in utility at any one position. If he regains his hitting stroke, as he believes he has, he could return to a 280 hitter with not much power but there is the question of whether his health will hold up on the long term. Brock has been a nice player and a good guy for the Sox, so it will be interesting to see how he is handled. Will the Sox look ahead to cover the inevitable injury bug, where one or more of our players gets laid up for 15 to 60 days? It appears that Marrero or Holt will be shopped and traded if possible.

 

That's good news on the medication thing.

 

I know I've sounded like a Holt basher, but I'd love for him to regain his skill level and be part of our team. I still do not like his fielding ability at any one position enough for me to be his biggest fan, but he can be a big value, if he can hit over .700 again.

 

I'm guessing he might get traded, if he shows he can hit again. He's an excellent base-runner, too, I might add.

[mvp 78]

It's a double edges sword, though. A less patient approach also means you can be handled by an opposing pitcher and allow for long starts. The hallmark of the past 15 years of sox baseball has been a lineup that literally chews through pitchers. You rarely saw pitchers make it past the 6th, and most time you would see guys out after 5IP. A more aggressive approach may certainly help against pitchers who were taking advantage of a team philosophy and getting ahead due to too much patience. That's an easier adjustment. I think you've got your masher here, pitchers will be more cautious having to face or deal with JD with men on base, so the pitchers will be a bit more aggressive at the outset. But if the sox are coming out of their shoes, good pitchers will take advantage of that and get them out earlier in counts. It is a good thing for Xander, but for everyone, maybe not so much

 

It would be good for Xander, Betts and Pedey who all swing well under league average at the first pitch.

[moonslav59]

It's a double edges sword, though. A less patient approach also means you can be handled by an opposing pitcher and allow for long starts. The hallmark of the past 15 years of sox baseball has been a lineup that literally chews through pitchers. You rarely saw pitchers make it past the 6th, and most time you would see guys out after 5IP. A more aggressive approach may certainly help against pitchers who were taking advantage of a team philosophy and getting ahead due to too much patience. That's an easier adjustment. I think you've got your masher here, pitchers will be more cautious having to face or deal with JD with men on base, so the pitchers will be a bit more aggressive at the outset. But if the sox are coming out of their shoes, good pitchers will take advantage of that and get them out earlier in counts. It is a good thing for Xander, but for everyone, maybe not so much

 

We just need to mix it up and not be so predicatable. It still is an advantage, with most teams, to get to their pen by the 5th inning. I'd like to see us still be patient but just no so predictable, especially on first pitches right down the middle.

[mvp 78]

I'd like to see us still be patient but just no so predictable, especially on first pitches right down the middle.

 

That's all we're really asking for, right?

 

I'll even allow some stupid triple plays and JBJ getting doubled up for no reason a few times if they just don't drop their bats before the pitch is even thrown.

[moonslav59]

That's all we're really asking for, right?

 

I'll even allow some stupid triple plays and JBJ getting doubled up for no reason a few times if they just don't drop their bats before the pitch is even thrown.

 

Yes, yes, YES!

[mvp 78]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenmi01-bat.shtml

 

We don't want them swinging like Gator (46% swinging at the 1st pitch in 96!!!), but Xander swung at a career low 11.8% first pitches last year (previous low was 17.9).

[moonslav59]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenmi01-bat.shtml

 

We don't want them swinging like Gator (46% swinging at the 1st pitch in 96!!!), but Xander swung at a career low 11.8% first pitches last year (previous low was 17.9).

 

"The Pedey Influence!"

[mvp 78]

"The Pedey Influence!"

 

Pedroia had a career high swinging at the first pitch % last year! A whopping 15.1!

[Bellhorn04]

Pedroia had a career high swinging at the first pitch % last year! A whopping 15.1!

 

And Pedroia has a career OBP of .366, so it's hard to argue with that approach being successful, for him at least.

[mvp 78]

And Pedroia has a career OBP of .366, so it's hard to argue with that approach being successful, for him at least.

 

For him, it works. I don't think every hitter is the same. I don't believe you can just plug a guy into an equation and say it would work out. I think Xander would benefit at being more aggressive. For Pedey, it kinda works? His best season was in 2008 when he swang at 15%. The following year, he went down to 7% and never hit 15% gain until last year. His other great season, 2011, was the highest % from 09-14.

[harmony]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox fifth in projected WAR from left field:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18464-A-Realistic-View-at-2018-Part-I/page331

[S5Dewey]

I'm rapidly losing interest in this season. According to everything I'm reading here (posted by non-Sox fans) statistics indicate that the Sox are vastly inferior to other teams players at just about every position.

 

But that doesn't matter because MLB already has the WS trophy wrapped up and ready for shipment to Yankee Stadium. It's amazing that some of us actually thought the Sox might win more than 90 games this year.

 

I think I'll take up following curling this summer instead.

[moonslav59]

And Pedroia has a career OBP of .366, so it's hard to argue with that approach being successful, for him at least.

 

I don't mind as much with Pedey for the reason you stated, but when it rubs off on others...

[moonslav59]

For him, it works. I don't think every hitter is the same. I don't believe you can just plug a guy into an equation and say it would work out. I think Xander would benefit at being more aggressive. For Pedey, it kinda works? His best season was in 2008 when he swang at 15%. The following year, he went down to 7% and never hit 15% gain until last year. His other great season, 2011, was the highest % from 09-14.

 

Career OPS after going 0-1 (of course, some first pitch takes are balls and some 0-1 counts come after a swinging strike):

 

.730 Betts

 

.713 Pedey

 

.709 HRam

 

.665 JDM

 

.663 Bogey

 

.628 Moreland

 

.605 JBJ

[harmony]

I'm rapidly losing interest in this season. According to everything I'm reading here (posted by non-Sox fans) statistics indicate that the Sox are vastly inferior to other teams players at just about every position.

 

But that doesn't matter because MLB already has the WS trophy wrapped up and ready for shipment to Yankee Stadium. It's amazing that some of us actually thought the Sox might win more than 90 games this year.

 

I think I'll take up following curling this summer instead.

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox in the Top 5 in left field and I suspect the Sox will rank well at other outfield positions, starting pitching and relief pitching.

 

I've posted the FanGraphs rankings in chronological order of their release and by chance the lower Red Sox rankings were released first.

 

Be patient. The Sox rank sixth out of 30 in projected total WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[harmony]

Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge notwithstanding, FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox first in projected WAR from right field:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-right-field/

[moonslav59]

Bryce Harper and Aaron Judge notwithstanding, FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox first in projected WAR from right field:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-right-field/

 

...and rightfully so!

[cp176]

I'm rapidly losing interest in this season. According to everything I'm reading here (posted by non-Sox fans) statistics indicate that the Sox are vastly inferior to other teams players at just about every position.

 

But that doesn't matter because MLB already has the WS trophy wrapped up and ready for shipment to Yankee Stadium. It's amazing that some of us actually thought the Sox might win more than 90 games this year.

 

I think I'll take up following curling this summer instead.

 

It is a little unbelievable that this team could even be competitive based on all of the projections quoted and potential injuries that are there just waiting to happen. I agree that much of this type of nonsense comes from people who ardently support other teams but some of it even comes form the homers themselves. Every team in both leagues will have issues that they will have to deal with for sure. Pretty much like you I'm sure, I like our team's chances. Of course it is going to be competitive. It always is. I'm not into hind sighting, second guessing, or cliffs even. With good management which is what we have, all of these issues that seem to be causing so much unrest are resolvable. Oh and for the record I could care less about the Yankees and their incredibly talented farm system. We'll see how good their team is as well as their awesome farm as the season progresses. I like a team that has great options going into the season. We have that at almost every position. No worry from me - I'm anxious to get things moving.

[moonslav59]

It is a little unbelievable that this team could even be competitive based on all of the projections quoted and potential injuries that are there just waiting to happen. I agree that much of this type of nonsense comes from people who ardently support other teams but some of it even comes form the homers themselves. Every team in both leagues will have issues that they will have to deal with for sure. Pretty much like you I'm sure, I like our team's chances. Of course it is going to be competitive. It always is. I'm not into hind sighting, second guessing, or cliffs even. With good management which is what we have, all of these issues that seem to be causing so much unrest are resolvable. Oh and for the record I could care less about the Yankees and their incredibly talented farm system. We'll see how good their team is as well as their awesome farm as the season progresses. I like a team that has great options going into the season. We have that at almost every position. No worry from me - I'm anxious to get things moving.

 

Yes.

 

I don't see us as being below average at any position, although we might end up there at 1B-maybe catcher by year end WAR numbers that don't count how well a catcher gets the most from the staff he catches.

 

We look to have a nice top 3-4 starting pitchers, which helps for the post season. We have a great closer. I thought our offense would improve even before we signed JD, so I like our O. Our OF defense is great. Only our infield defense looks like a clear negative, but I think we can overcome it. Our pen depth looks good, but it's always somewhat of a roll of the dice.

[Kimmi]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox fifth in projected WAR from left field:

 

http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18464-A-Realistic-View-at-2018-Part-I/page331

 

Even though we don't seem to be ranking very high at most positions, Fangraphs ranks the Red Sox as tied for the 3rd best team in all of baseball behind the Astros and the Evil Ones.

[moonslav59]

Even though we don't seem to be ranking very high at most positions, Fangraphs ranks the Red Sox as tied for the 3rd best team in all of baseball behind the Astros and the Evil Ones.

 

Balance.

[harmony]

Even though we don't seem to be ranking very high at most positions, Fangraphs ranks the Red Sox as tied for the 3rd best team in all of baseball behind the Astros and the Evil Ones.

To be precise FanGraphs projects the Red Sox to tie for the third-best record in baseball:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

... with the sixth-highest projected WAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3

[moonslav59]

A story on our OF & OF depth...

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/21/17145004/red-sox-depth-chart-outfield-mookie-betts-jd-martinez-andrew-benintendi-jackie-bradley-cole-brannen

 

A story on the IF & IF depth...

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/3/20/17140572/red-sox-depth-chart-infield-brock-holt-deven-marrero-xander-bogaerts-rafael-devers

[jacksonianmarch]

So as I said in another thread, you better hope the guys stay healthy

[mvp 78]

So as I said in another thread, you better hope the guys stay healthy

 

[jacksonianmarch]

It’s the first stage of the cliff. Lack of minor league production or trades of high end minor leaguers leave you with limited depth.

[moonslav59]

It’s the first stage of the cliff. Lack of minor league production or trades of high end minor leaguers leave you with limited depth.

 

We don't have deep ML ready minor league depth, but I like our immediate depth at each position.

 

C: Leon and Swihart both on the ML roster gives us immediate catcher depth few teams have.

 

1B: With HRam and Moreland sharing duty, one can move to FT, if the other is injured with very little drop off. Then, we have Swihart & Travis in the wings.

 

2B: We might have the best back-up 2Bman in MLB in Nunez. We're super deep here beyond that with Marrero/Holt. Marco, Lin and Quiroz.

 

3B: Once Pedey returns, we'll have Nunez as the back-up here, again an excellent sub. After Nunez, we have Marco, Marrero, Holt and Lin with maybe Chavis ready by August.

 

SS: Nunez is not the best SS on defense, by far, but he swings a good bat. Beyond him, we have Hernandez, Marrero, Holt and Lin.

 

OF: Our OF depth is not great, but we can put JD in the OF and play HRam and Moreland or use Nunez at DH. That's pretty good. We also have a bunch of guys who aren't really true OF'er, but they can play LF pretty well: Nunez, Swihart and Holt. We can also use Moreland in a pinch.

 

I like our depth now, but down the road, not so much.

[OH FOY]

Don't be so sure JBJ is Starting CF in season opener. He's struggling against Single A and Double AA pitchers this Spring, this would open my eyes if I was a Manager.

[mvp 78]

Don't be so sure JBJ is Starting CF in season opener. He's struggling against Single A and Double AA pitchers this Spring, this would open my eyes if I was a Manager.

 

Agreed, this is the lineup I go with:

 

Betts 2b

Beni CF

Hanley 1b

JD RF

Xander SS

Devers 3B

Swihart LF

Vazquez C

Wright DH