A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[moonslav59]

As of mid March, our prospects for 2018 are riding on health.

 

Isn't that the same for every team?

 

(Maybe us more than others due to our rotation question marks.)

[moonslav59]

Well I think most of that goes without saying. If the players have comparable numbers, the playing could be split in such a way that the option will not vest. If Hanley is tearing the cover off the ball and outperforming the others, it would be rather silly to keep him on the bench. That would go against my 'get your best hitters in the line up' philosophy.

 

How much better makes it a no-brainer to play HRam every game?

 

Can HRam rake much better than Moreland/Swihart/Nunez? Of course, he can.

 

I'm actually very optimistic that the surgery will help HRam have a good season, maybe like 2016- maybe a little better.

 

2016: .286 30 11 (.361/.505/ .866)

 

It's hard to imagine Swihart or Nunez doing better than that.

 

It's better than what we can expect from Moreland:

 

.250 25 80 (.325/.445/.770)

 

The split numbers might be what really counts, although Cora seems to not value that as much as others, at least with his words this winter.

 

Moreland's OPS vs RHPs is more like .785.

 

HRam's OPS vs RHPs in his best Boston year (2016) was just .796.

 

Do you start HRam vs every RH'd starter if the differential is .796 to .785?

 

One could probably look at which starters Moreland has a good history against and justifiably start Moreland in 25-40% of RH'd starter games, thereby keeping HRam from vesting.

 

To me, HRam is going to have to rake vs RHPs to justify letting the option vest. I see that as a small possibility, but if I'm wrong, he will vest- assuming health is not an issue.

 

Not passing the physical might be our hope, if he does vest.

[moonslav59]

Having Hanley's option vest is not what is going to screw the future. As of now, the cliff is coming whether Hanley's option vests or not. I get what you're saying about his $22 mil making it harder to sign other players, but that option is not the difference maker.

 

It's very likely that if we have HRam's $22M on the books next year, and we want to keep "the window" open for 2019, we will go over the $40M mark and see penalties imposed that grealyt affect our future beyond 2019. Draft pick moved down. International pool money significantly reduced, not to mention a huge tax imposed on Henry's wallet that might make him less likely to spend big beyond 2019.

[moonslav59]

If Hanley Ramirez has a season like 2016 again and his option vests he becomes tradeable. Teams are gearing up to spend big next year and someone who misses out on the big bats is going to have the money to spend to take a chance on him for one year.

 

This is hypothetical and built on the basis that Hanley plays well enough for his option to vest.

 

I also don't believe in looking at one player as a roadblock to not signing another (all things considered). It wouldn't be Hanley that stops the Sox from re-signing next year it would Hanley and Moreland, and Price, and JDM, etc etc etc. But again, I don't think Hanleys money is on the books for 2019. Perhaps some of you think he can hit with a .880 OPS and not be tradeable, I happen to disagree.

 

I doubt anyone would even pay $12M for HRam next year after he hits .886 in 2018.

 

There are better choices. Several players better than HRam just signed one year deals.

[Bellhorn04]

It's very likely that if we have HRam's $22M on the books next year, and we want to keep "the window" open for 2019, we will go over the $40M mark and see penalties imposed that grealyt affect our future beyond 2019. Draft pick moved down. International pool money significantly reduced, not to mention a huge tax imposed on Henry's wallet that might make him less likely to spend big beyond 2019.

 

I don't think you automatically lose the international pool money. I think there's another condition about signing a free agent...have to read the fine print.

[moonslav59]

I don't think you automatically lose the international pool money. I think there's another condition about signing a free agent...have to read the fine print.

 

You might be right. I looked at the wording and could not find anything on international pool money lost, except for signing a QO FA.

 

I guess 10 picks is not so bad without the pool money lost, but it does or could affect our future beyond 2018 along with the 75% tax on all money spent over the $40M mark for a second year over the limit team.

[Hugh2]

I doubt anyone would even pay $12M for HRam next year after he hits .886 in 2018.

 

There are better choices. Several players better than HRam just signed one year deals.

 

You cannot compare this year's market to next years. They are completely different animals and I think you know that Moon. Teams are not spending this year because they're trying to reset and get prepared for next year. If any of these were free agents a year earlier or later they'd be getting a lot more money.

[Kimmi]

Boy has Pomeranz come a long way or what Moon? Almost everybody absolutely hasted the trade, and now "it won't be easy" to replace Pom. Wow. I 'm one of the few who liked the trade and I would like to see us keep him obviously based on how he pitches this year. If he has to be replaced, I'm not sure that it will be that hard to do. A potentially solid mid-rotation stater.

 

Pom is one of the few guys that I have slated to regress in the negative direction. I hope he proves me wrong. We need him to pitch at a level close to what he pitched last season.

[cp176]

Pom is one of the few guys that I have slated to regress in the negative direction. I hope he proves me wrong. We need him to pitch at a level close to what he pitched last season.

 

I like Pomeranz but I would not be surprised as well to see him take a step back this year. It is still possible I guess that we have not seen his best either. I 'm really hoping for that. Essentially for me, I think it means that we need Porcello to step his game back up.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pom has morphed into a strange hybrid of effectiveness with no efficiency. He doesn't help a defense as his pitch counts keep them off their toes. He doesn't help a bullpen as he frequently needs relief to begin or during the 6th inning. Yet strangely, he is able to maximize his effectiveness in terms of preventing runs. He is the antithesis of what pitchers are taught. He doesn't go right after hitters. He is willing to nibble. He would rather allow the certainty of a walk vs the uncertainty of contact. It works for him. But even if he replicates what he did last season, one must wonder how effective he truly is. Your bullpen was the 4th least taxed pen in the AL last yr. A lot of that had to do with Sale being unreal and Porcello eating innings. If Price returns to his prior innings eating ways (effective or no), then you can survive another season with Pom going 5.1IP a start. If there are other injuries in the rotation, his pen burning nature will eventually catch up to your team

[jacksonianmarch]

You really don't have a choice. Kimbrel and Pomeranz are coming off the books after 2018. The arb raises to the B's will eat that $22 mil. Kimbrel and Pom are set to come off the books at $21.5 mil. Without dealing someone, you cannot afford to replace both. I do wonder if DD thinks he can replace Kimbrel internally, but nobody can really replace that production.

 

The cliff talk isn't speculation or griping. It is an eventuality with every team that "goes for it". You deal off your next wave of talent in order to maximize your current roster. In doing so, your cheap talent eventually becomes expensive. If there are no internal options to replace that expensive talent, then you spend to keep it. Eventually, you run out of money and start replacing big producers with unknowns of lesser talent and ceiling and the whole thing crashes down. The only reason why the Yankees were able to keep their window open from 95-12 was because they could outspend everyone and the penalty was only money. With the penalties now hitting player development, massive overspending takes your ability to draft, sign and develop, which is ultimately what rebuilds your club.

 

DD is one of the old guard. They know how to build, and they know how to maximize a window. My hope for my team is that Cashman sees the old guard is about peaks and valleys. The method to continue to have long standing success is to break in a wave of uber talented prospects regularly. Once the pipeline dries up, a cliff forms

[S5Dewey]

I need a little help with options. I thought I understood them until this spring but now I'm not so sure.

 

I'm now hearing that Player A has been assigned to Greenville, Player B has been sent down to Portland, and Player C has been OPTIONED to Pawtucket, all of them from Spring Training. Has Player C used up an option year, or is this all terminology that means the same thing and no real options have been used up?

 

And if some players are actually using up an option year what's the criteria that makes Player C's situation different from Players A & B's?

[jacksonianmarch]

I can help.

 

A player burns an option if they are on the 40 man roster. Guys who made it to ST who aren't on the 40 man get re-assigned to the minors. Guys on the 40 man who get sent to the minors get optioned and they burn one of three option years.

 

Also, disregard where a player gets re-assigned or optioned to in ST. The moves are strictly for work groups in the minor league portion of ST. You don't know where a guy will actually end up until you break camp

[moonslav59]

You cannot compare this year's market to next years. They are completely different animals and I think you know that Moon. Teams are not spending this year because they're trying to reset and get prepared for next year. If any of these were free agents a year earlier or later they'd be getting a lot more money.

 

Teams looking to spend next year will be looking at Machado and others, not HRam.

 

Aging DH's with injury histories and inconsistent seasons are not worth more than $12M very often, if ever.

[mvp 78]

It's very likely that if we have HRam's $22M on the books next year

 

Well that would suck a big fat one.

[Hugh2]

Teams looking to spend next year will be looking at Machado and others, not HRam.

 

Aging DH's with injury histories and inconsistent seasons are not worth more than $12M very often, if ever.

 

Moon, you know I know that. Forgive me if I didn't make my point well enough. Yes, teams are going after Machado next year, as well as Harper and others. That's why no one is spending this year. Someone is going to miss out next year on these guys....actually a lot of teams are. IF, and this is perhaps a big if, but if Hanley has a really good year there is going to be a team with the cap space, cash and need for a bat that will take a chance on Hanley if it costs them nothing but money.

 

Now maybe I'm wrong, but if Hanley has a good year I firmly believe that.

[moonslav59]

With JD at DH full time, I thought the main reason, and to me the only justifiable reason, we got Moreland was to allow us to legitimately keep HRam's option from vesting and to have Moreland at 1B for 2019, after HRam leaves- perhaps as a transition to Travis or Ockimey in 2019 or 2020.

[mvp 78]

With JD at DH full time, I thought the main reason, and to me the only justifiable reason, we got Moreland was to allow us to legitimately keep HRam's option from vesting and to have Moreland at 1B for 2019, after HRam leaves- perhaps as a transition to Travis or Ockimey in 2019 or 2020.

 

The deal was reasonable when signed. He had a productive year with the Sox even though he was injured. I don't think they regret bringing back a good clubhouse guy like that who can pick it at first.

[moonslav59]

The deal was reasonable when signed. He had a productive year with the Sox even though he was injured. I don't think they regret bringing back a good clubhouse guy like that who can pick it at first.

 

$6.5M x 2 is a lot to pay for someone, unless we play on playing him at least 35-40% off the time.

[mvp 78]

$6.5M x 2 is a lot to pay for someone, unless we play on playing him at least 35-40% off the time.

 

I think he's going to play more than 40% of the time. I bet he gets about 100 appearances (not starts).

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

Cora says he’s comfortable with Hanley hitting third, Martinez fourth and Bogaerts fifth ... Also is not committed to using Leon with Sale every time.

 

With analytics showing the importance of the 5th spot, this is showing a lot of confidence in Xander.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Cora on Bogaerts hitting 5th: ‘He will put the ball in play. He can go the other way, too. He will drive in runs.’ Sox will continue working with him on early-count aggressiveness. Cora noted Bogaerts took a first pitch with runners on 2nd/3rd vs Glasgow that was best of AB.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

 

Cora on Kimbrel’s readiness for the start of the season in TB: ‘As long as we have a 3-run lead or 2-run lead or 1-run lead, he’ll be ready for that one. ... Lydia is doing better. That’s more important.’

[moonslav59]

I think he's going to play more than 40% of the time. I bet he gets about 100 appearances (not starts).

 

He should get 40+ starts and many late inning replacements.

[Emp9]

@PeteAbe

 

Cora says he’s comfortable with Hanley hitting third, Martinez fourth and Bogaerts fifth ... Also is not committed to using Leon with Sale every time.

 

With analytics showing the importance of the 5th spot, this is showing a lot of confidence in Xander.

 

Unless XB is hurt (past wrist problems from being hbp), they should have the utmost confidence in him. He’s had time to heal from last season and get his mechanics back to what they once were before the injury.

[mvp 78]

He should get 40+ starts and many late inning replacements.

 

I'm going with at least 75 starts unless he has a serious injury.

 

If Hanley starts off slow, he's going to get 100+ starts.

[mvp 78]

Unless XB is hurt (past wrist problems from being hbp), they should have the utmost confidence in him. He’s had time to heal from last season and get his mechanics back to what they once were before the injury.

 

I like Xander and I think having a coach getting him to be more aggressive can only help his numbers.

[moonslav59]

I'm going with at least 75 starts unless he has a serious injury.

 

If Hanley starts off slow, he's going to get 100+ starts.

 

I'm wondering how many PAs could be taken away from HRam just from late inning replacement by Moreland.

[mvp 78]

I'm wondering how many PAs could be taken away from HRam just from late inning replacement by Moreland.

 

32.5

[moonslav59]

32.5

 

I was thinking 61.79