A Realistic View at 2018: Part I

[cp176]

it's probably hard for everybody to believe that neither Holt nor Marrero has drawn much interest from other clubs.

[moonslav59]

Guys like Marrero (all glove- zero bat) are everywhere. I wouldn't be shocked if DM is traded or DFA'd, so Holt can be on the 25 man roster. Plus, we have Lin and Swihart to fill some IF needs. (Nunez will become available once Pedey returns.)

 

Personally, I'd keep marrero and send Holt to AA to start the season, but I won't be upset, if Marrero is DFA'd.

 

It's not going to come down to Holt vs Swihart.

[/quote. Moon , It's clear that you don't like Holt ( And Moreland ) , but AA ? Really ? That would be a slap in the face.

 

I meant AAA.

[moonslav59]

it's probably hard for everybody to believe that neither Holt nor Marrero has drawn much interest from other clubs.

 

Many teams might want Holt, but I'm not sue they think he's worth his contract.

 

Marrero might not even be claimed, if he is DFA'd.

[Slasher9]

the past few seasons i figured Holt had dirt on JF. if he is on the opening day roster i am switching that to he has dirt on Commander Data.

[mvp 78]

Many teams might want Holt, but I'm not sue they think he's worth his contract.

 

Marrero might not even be claimed, if he is DFA'd.

 

He's a former AS with great hair who can play 8 positions! That's totally worth $2M.

[Bellhorn04]

Holt is a decent utility player. WTF do people expect.

[moonslav59]

Usually utility player can field a position or two at or above replacement level defensively, or they can hit well enough to PH for weaker hitters on the team.

 

Holt does not really do either of those two things. His ability to play 8 positions is his only true valuable commodity, despite not being to play any very well.

 

Now that we have a DH who can play another position, that need for an 8 position utility player has diminished to some extent.

 

Think of it this way, is there any position on our depth chart where you think Holt is good enough to be the number one sub, either short term or long term? To me, he's a "utility player" with very little utility.

 

Here's my choice on our positional depth chart (AAA players maybe used in case of injury in parenthesis):

 

1B: HRam/Moreland-- Swihart (Travis long term) then Holt (Thoughts of using JD or Devers at 1B makes some sense.)

 

2B: Pedey-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

3B: Devers-- Nunez, Hernandez, Marrero/Lin then Holt

 

SS: Bogaerts-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

OF: (Beni & Betts can be shifted around to allow the sub to play LF in Fenway and RF away)

Beni, JBJ, Betts-- JD, Swihart, Moreland then Holt

 

When Holt was an all star, he was clearly our best sub at several positions, and we had a DH who only played DH (1B rarely in NL parks). Now, he's not.

 

[moonslav59]

Update on Westmoreland....

 

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2018/03/silverman_eight_years_later_ryan_westmoreland_eases_into_life_away_from

[harmony]

The Red Sox top a FanGraphs list:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-teams-with-the-most-dead-money-in-2018/

[Nick]

The Red Sox top a FanGraphs list:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-teams-with-the-most-dead-money-in-2018/

 

Don't forget to add $2.2M for All Star Holt.

[Natick to NC]

Say what you will but I can't believe we're even having a discussion between Swihart and Holt.

 

Swihart was an up and comer. No one has convinced me that he won't be a very good major leaguer. Hell he may end up being our #1 catcher some day. I love Vaz but as a team our catching position provided -0.5 war, good for 3 way tie for 9th in AL.

 

Our DH position came in at -2.4, tied for 12th out of 15 AL teams.

 

Our outfielders, on the strength of Betts and his 4.0 war (good for 2nd place) came in at 4.7 as a group, good for 4th place.

 

3B came in 12th at -1.2 good for 13th place.

 

1B came in 9th at -0.8 good for 9th place.

 

SS also came in 9th at 0.1 war.

 

2B came in 10th at -0.3 war.

 

Our pitching staff was stellar, coming in 3rd place at 8.3 war.

 

Our infield needed upgrade. Devers along with healthy Xander will give us a boost.

Maybe the best post I've read in many years on any Redsox ,Patriots ,Bruins boards ...why ? Well you cut right to the chase putting it right in our faces that the truth is we are lacking in areas many seem to think are strengths ...I appreciate you're take on Swihart the most because frankly I feel the exact same as you ...his future should be at Catcher and yes if Vaz falters hes our Starter .

[moonslav59]

Maybe the best post I've read in many years on any Redsox ,Patriots ,Bruins boards ...why ? Well you cut right to the chase putting it right in our faces that the truth is we are lacking in areas many seem to think are strengths ...I appreciate you're take on Swihart the most because frankly I feel the exact same as you ...his future should be at Catcher and yes if Vaz falters hes our Starter .

 

We were 10th in AL LF WAR, 9th in 1B WAR and 9th in catcher WAR.

 

I'm not seeing why Swihart should clearly be the #1 catcher, when he plays all three positions. Perhaps his greatest value lies in the fact that he can and will play all three positions.

 

(Note: of all three positions, he may be worst defensively at catcher... may be...)

[Natick to NC]

We were 10th in AL LF WAR, 9th in 1B WAR and 9th in catcher WAR.

 

I'm not seeing why Swihart should clearly be the #1 catcher, when he plays all three positions. Perhaps his greatest value lies in the fact that he can and will play all three positions.

 

(Note: of all three positions, he may be worst defensively at catcher... may be...)

 

Moon...I think he will take what they give him ...but would it not make more sense to get him major time at Catcher his natural position ??? I certainly think it's time but they want to make him a super utility???? Like I've said I'm at a loss about Mitch about Holt about Sandy about Pedey about Xander about JBJ ,Hanley ...I don't have any issues with Vaz ,Devers ,Mook,Benny ,Swihart , our new DH ...Why ? They are the future of this team in my opinion .Yes I think Swihart should be looked at this way also ...Xander and JBJ are going to demand a truck load of money that I would not pay up to this point .... We can disagree about a players future as much as present and even agree things are never cut and dry with any player. Holt has been a nice player so hasn't Sandy and Mitch I'm just ready for the future .

[moonslav59]

Moon...I think he will take what they give him ...but would it not make more sense to get him major time at Catcher his natural position ??? I certainly think it's time but they want to make him a super utility???? Like I've said I'm at a loss about Mitch about Holt about Sandy about Pedey about Xander about JBJ ,Hanley ...I don't have any issues with Vaz ,Devers ,Mook,Benny ,Swihart , our new DH ...Why ? They are the future of this team in my opinion .Yes I think Swihart should be looked at this way also ...Xander and JBJ are going to demand a truck load of money that I would not pay up to this point .... We can disagree about a players future as much as present and even agree things are never cut and dry with any player. Holt has been a nice player so hasn't Sandy and Mitch I'm just ready for the future .

 

Again, the choice will never be between Holt and Swihart. If it is, then it's a huge mistake.

 

Swihart should make the 25 man roster and will get his chance to show his offense. Once (if) he establishes that, a position will find him.

[cp176]

Many teams might want Holt, but I'm not sue they think he's worth his contract.

 

Marrero might not even be claimed, if he is DFA'd.

 

I would think that Marrero would have more value to other teams. He at least does one thing very well plus he comes cheaper.

[moonslav59]

I would think that Marrero would have more value to other teams. He at least does one thing very well plus he comes cheaper.

 

Good glove/ .550 batters are everywhere in professional baseball.

 

He is a career .710 vs LHPs (93 PAs), so maybe someone might use him in a platoon plus late inning replacement role.

 

(Note his putrid OPS vs RHPs: .487 in 165 PAs)

[mvp 78]

Good glove/ .550 batters are everywhere in professional baseball.

 

He is a career .710 vs LHPs (93 PAs), so maybe someone might use him in a platoon plus late inning replacement role.

 

(Note his putrid OPS vs RHPs: .487 in 165 PAs)

 

I think Holt has more value to an NL team than Marrero due to his versatility. We'll have to see what happens though.

[Maxbialystock]

Usually utility player can field a position or two at or above replacement level defensively, or they can hit well enough to PH for weaker hitters on the team.

 

Holt does not really do either of those two things. His ability to play 8 positions is his only true valuable commodity, despite not being to play any very well.

 

Now that we have a DH who can play another position, that need for an 8 position utility player has diminished to some extent.

 

Think of it this way, is there any position on our depth chart where you think Holt is good enough to be the number one sub, either short term or long term? To me, he's a "utility player" with very little utility.

 

Here's my choice on our positional depth chart (AAA players maybe used in case of injury in parenthesis):

 

1B: HRam/Moreland-- Swihart (Travis long term) then Holt (Thoughts of using JD or Devers at 1B makes some sense.)

 

2B: Pedey-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

3B: Devers-- Nunez, Hernandez, Marrero/Lin then Holt

 

SS: Bogaerts-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

OF: (Beni & Betts can be shifted around to allow the sub to play LF in Fenway and RF away)

Beni, JBJ, Betts-- JD, Swihart, Moreland then Holt

 

When Holt was an all star, he was clearly our best sub at several positions, and we had a DH who only played DH (1B rarely in NL parks). Now, he's not.

 

 

I of course agree, but would add that utility players, subs, whatever you want to call them, are more precious in MLB than in the NFL or NBA or you name it.

 

The typical MLB team has 12 pitchers and 13 position players, two of whom must be decent catchers. That leaves 3 players to replace the other 8 starting position players. Given that they play 162 games, that seems insane, but it actually works pretty well. But it does mean those backups must be able to contribute.

 

I personally am no fan of Brock Holt, but he actually can play the infield and the outfield passably well. At bat he is more than willing to take pitches, both to have a shot at a walk and to add to the pitch count. Statistically, I'm sure he doesn't live up to his salary.

[Nick]

Usually utility player can field a position or two at or above replacement level defensively, or they can hit well enough to PH for weaker hitters on the team.

 

Holt does not really do either of those two things. His ability to play 8 positions is his only true valuable commodity, despite not being to play any very well.

 

Now that we have a DH who can play another position, that need for an 8 position utility player has diminished to some extent.

 

Think of it this way, is there any position on our depth chart where you think Holt is good enough to be the number one sub, either short term or long term? To me, he's a "utility player" with very little utility.

 

Here's my choice on our positional depth chart (AAA players maybe used in case of injury in parenthesis):

 

1B: HRam/Moreland-- Swihart (Travis long term) then Holt (Thoughts of using JD or Devers at 1B makes some sense.)

 

2B: Pedey-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

3B: Devers-- Nunez, Hernandez, Marrero/Lin then Holt

 

SS: Bogaerts-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

OF: (Beni & Betts can be shifted around to allow the sub to play LF in Fenway and RF away)

Beni, JBJ, Betts-- JD, Swihart, Moreland then Holt

 

When Holt was an all star, he was clearly our best sub at several positions, and we had a DH who only played DH (1B rarely in NL parks). Now, he's not.

 

 

+1,000,000 Best post by Moon, ever.

[moonslav59]

+1,000,000 Best post by Moon, ever.

 

I have it ranked 147th.

 

(LOL, thanks)

 

To me, Holt is no better than 3rd or 4th on the depth chart at any position. He was 2nd or 3rd at several positions 3-4 years ago.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

 

A little more clarity on the #RedSox rotation from Cora: Johnson likely will pitch Game 5. Wright is 50-50 for Game 4, Rodriguez less than 50 percent, Pomeranz unlikely at this point. They want to give Wright and E-Rod a shot at it. Otherwise it’s Velasquez.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

 

A little more clarity on the #RedSox rotation from Cora: Johnson likely will pitch Game 5. Wright is 50-50 for Game 4, Rodriguez less than 50 percent, Pomeranz unlikely at this point. They want to give Wright and E-Rod a shot at it. Otherwise it’s Velasquez.

 

I didn't think ERod would be ready until May.

 

If we have to go with Johnson for 2 starts and Velazquez for just one, the rotation health issue is better than I expected.

[mvp 78]

I didn't think ERod would be ready until May.

 

If we have to go with Johnson for 2 starts and Velazquez for just one, the rotation health issue is better than I expected.

 

I wouldn't rush ERod back at all. I'd rather him sit in extended spring training and get his arm ready for 100+ pitches and have him at 100% before bringing him back. It's a long season and ERod has a substantial injury history.

[moonslav59]

I wouldn't rush ERod back at all. I'd rather him sit in extended spring training and get his arm ready for 100+ pitches and have him at 100% before bringing him back. It's a long season and ERod has a substantial injury history.

 

I agree to some extent, but his injury history, as far as I know, has always been the knee. Once that knee is 100%, he should be ready to go. He may no longer be "injury prone.," if the surgery was a complete success.

 

I do worry about a teak happening, so if the doctors are concerned about that, then I'd go very slowly.

 

[Kimmi]

The Red Sox top a FanGraphs list:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mlb-teams-with-the-most-dead-money-in-2018/

 

Thanks Larry!

[harmony]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox seventh in projected WAR at shortstop:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

[moonslav59]

thanks larry!

 

lol

[moonslav59]

FanGraphs ranks the Red Sox seventh in projected WAR at shortstop:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/

 

This doesn't sound like the same Bogey some here describe as unable to adjust...

 

If you feel like Xander Bogaerts has been something like 10 different hitters since making his debut for the Sox back in 2013, you're not wrong. He's been all over the place in terms of his approach, but I tend to think (with perhaps a bit of a rose-colored view) that it's actually indicative of an ability to adjust to big-league pitching. If the Bogaerts who showed up in Boston five years ago had stuck to his guns, he'd probably be sitting at home trying to find another career right now.

 

Anyway, Bogaerts knows how to adjust, which is good because he'll need to in 2018. He's a good example of the kind of player who's patient but actually doesn't really have much plate discipline. He swings as often at bad pitches as he swings at good ones, and that means that getting deep in the count doesn't do him much good -- he's as likely to roll over on a pitch off the plate as he is to force the pitcher into giving him something he can drive, like (for example) Trea Turner, above, can. Bogaerts is still a really good player, because his basic skills profile is so very strong, but with a few tweaks he could be much better. Isn't it cruel how baseball asks that of you?

[oldtimer]

This doesn't sound like the same Bogey some here describe as unable to adjust...

 

If you feel like Xander Bogaerts has been something like 10 different hitters since making his debut for the Sox back in 2013, you're not wrong. He's been all over the place in terms of his approach, but I tend to think (with perhaps a bit of a rose-colored view) that it's actually indicative of an ability to adjust to big-league pitching. If the Bogaerts who showed up in Boston five years ago had stuck to his guns, he'd probably be sitting at home trying to find another career right now.

 

Anyway, Bogaerts knows how to adjust, which is good because he'll need to in 2018. He's a good example of the kind of player who's patient but actually doesn't really have much plate discipline. He swings as often at bad pitches as he swings at good ones, and that means that getting deep in the count doesn't do him much good -- he's as likely to roll over on a pitch off the plate as he is to force the pitcher into giving him something he can drive, like (for example) Trea Turner, above, can. Bogaerts is still a really good player, because his basic skills profile is so very strong, but with a few tweaks he could be much better. Isn't it cruel how baseball asks that of you?

 

Cora has said about Bogey that he was guilty of bad takes at the plate and that the coaches were working with him to avoid those. Cora seems to define bad takes as fastballs well in the strike zone early in the count and of course many of us were saying the same thing about him and also a few others on the team last season. It appeared to me that this was an artifact of JF and Chili Davis coaching and may have had a lot to do with the general decline of our offensive performance last year. Cora wants hitters to be more aggressive and not to take hittable pitches early in the count. I applaud that as it will give opposing pitchers something to think about before grooving the first pitch knowing our batters have been told to take the first one. We will see if Bogey has a resurgence in his batting average and possibly his power profile this year.

[oldtimer]

Usually utility player can field a position or two at or above replacement level defensively, or they can hit well enough to PH for weaker hitters on the team.

 

Holt does not really do either of those two things. His ability to play 8 positions is his only true valuable commodity, despite not being to play any very well.

 

Now that we have a DH who can play another position, that need for an 8 position utility player has diminished to some extent.

 

Think of it this way, is there any position on our depth chart where you think Holt is good enough to be the number one sub, either short term or long term? To me, he's a "utility player" with very little utility.

 

Here's my choice on our positional depth chart (AAA players maybe used in case of injury in parenthesis):

 

1B: HRam/Moreland-- Swihart (Travis long term) then Holt (Thoughts of using JD or Devers at 1B makes some sense.)

 

2B: Pedey-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

3B: Devers-- Nunez, Hernandez, Marrero/Lin then Holt

 

SS: Bogaerts-- Nunez, Hernandez, Lin/Marrero then Holt

 

OF: (Beni & Betts can be shifted around to allow the sub to play LF in Fenway and RF away)

Beni, JBJ, Betts-- JD, Swihart, Moreland then Holt

 

When Holt was an all star, he was clearly our best sub at several positions, and we had a DH who only played DH (1B rarely in NL parks). Now, he's not.

 

 

Holt speaks of his decline after suffering the concussion and his inability to feel right until finding a new medication, which he is now taking daily. He says he feels much more normal now and that his spring training performance is reflecting it.

 

I tend to agree with your assessent of Brock. That his versatility is not of as much value to us now that we have a DH who can play in the outfield, Hanley who can play 1st base and Nunez who is flexible and will be used in utility once Pedey returns. We also have Swihart who is going to make the roster and is quite versatile. That leaves Holt fighting for the one remaining roster spot with Marrero and that spot may also dry up when Pedey returns.

 

As you point out, Brock is not the number 1 option in utility at any one position. If he regains his hitting stroke, as he believes he has, he could return to a 280 hitter with not much power but there is the question of whether his health will hold up on the long term. Brock has been a nice player and a good guy for the Sox, so it will be interesting to see how he is handled. Will the Sox look ahead to cover the inevitable injury bug, where one or more of our players gets laid up for 15 to 60 days? It appears that Marrero or Holt will be shopped and traded if possible.