2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Nick]

If we had lots of money to play with and some prospects to trade it would certainly would be worth considering. But we're limited in both areas so we have to prioritize. Our top priorities should be a bat and a starting pitcher. We'll have to get by at second base with Hernandez, Holt or whoever...unless and until we find out Pedroia's recovery is not going according to schedule.

 

IMHO

 

Quite honestly, I'm hoping he retires after realizing he can't perform at the level he wants.

[Bellhorn04]

Wasn't Shane a 1 year $39M deal spread over 3 years?

 

Good one LOL

[Bellhorn04]

Quite honestly, I'm hoping he retires after realizing he can't perform at the level he wants.

 

Not me. I hope the surgery was a great success.

[Kimmi]

I believe they can go for it now and still have a legitimate shot every year (at least as legitimate of a shot as 2014 - 2015) because I believe they can re-sign everyone they want to.

 

Obviously, I disagree, but I certainly hope I am wrong.

 

In 2014 and 2015, we had a very legitimate shot on paper. That's all I can ask of from the GM.

[Kimmi]

Of course you are right. We are in 'debt' right now, we have the highest 'luxury' tax payroll. We already have $31M contract on our books. Sale and Betts will require big numbers.

 

IT WOULD BE STUPID TO GIVE OUT $210m/7 YEAR DEAL FOR FUTURE DH.

 

You know what? I want to see some of our younger players get an opportunity to play. We still have pretty good line up for two more years.

 

Yes, we still have a pretty good line up for two more years. Even if we stayed status quo, I am very confident that our offense will be better than it was last year. It's not like we were an 87 win team last year and have a lot of ground to make up.

 

If Price can stay healthy, then our starting rotation should be very strong as well.

[Kimmi]

i am glad that you don’t teach reading comprehension.

 

The blanket statement that staying 'status quo when there is a 2 year window is irrational' is just wrong, and you know it.

[Kimmi]

I'm thinking you misunderstood my question. Let's assume my original example was correct, and that SF outbid us by $2.5M, but the Sox were given a chance to match or beat that offer. Assume, without any OF demands, the Sox NOT were prepared to offer $5M more ($2.5M more than SF) or even $2.5M more. Why would the added demand of JD wanting to play OF make it more likely we'd up our offer?

 

OK, I get your point.

[Kimmi]

Cool! One less mistake signing off the books.

 

Also, same contract as Shane Victorino's deal with us.

 

Not that I wanted Bruce, but he's also one less option of the table. The more options that get signed, the more leverage Boras and JD have.

 

Not that it should matter. Dombrowski needs to stand pat on his offer regardless of how many other options there are.

[Kimmi]

The biggest news of the offseason so far is that my man Dave Cameron is leaving Fangraphs to take on a job with the Padres.

 

Very sad news for Fangraphs fans, good news for Padres fans.

[moonslav59]

wasn't shane a 1 year $39m deal spread over 3 years?

 

lol!

[cp176]

Kind of sound like JD is willing to hold out for that sixth year. Arizona was mentioned as another suitor which makes sense.

[Hitch]

Yeah. Quite a disparity between what he wants and what looks to be on table. I walk away from 6 @ $180m.

 

http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/red-sox-target-jd-martinez-digging-contract-demands

 

 

Spring training might not be the end of this offseason, after all.

 

According to FanRag Sports, Red Sox free agent target J.D. Martinez is willing to "hold out" for one more year than the Sox are currently offering, suggesting that the slugger could remain unsigned heading into February.

 

Multiple reports have stated that the Red Sox' offer to the 30-year-old is for five years, with Jon Heyman reporting that at least one other team willing to commit to the same duration.

 

Writes Heyman:

 

In any case, word coming out of Miami is that Martinez, 30, believes it appropriate that he get a six-year deal. It isn’t known what kind of total dollars the Red Sox, Diamondbacks and maybe others are offering (the Jays also have been showing interest and met with Martinez at the Winter Meetings), but sources suggest that Martinez is seeking $30 million-plus annually — $200 million if he can get it but at least $180 million, following his boffo season, first in Detroit and then Arizona.

 

The interested teams are believed offering somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range (yes, that’s a big range, but the offers to this point are unknown). So it’s believed he’s in the neighborhood of around $50 million short of the asking price at present. That sounds like a lot.

 

But Martinez’s willingness to wait is bolstered by the reality that there are multiple teams involved (Arizona’s involvement may have been underplayed to this point) at somewhat similar levels, and also the fact that there is no one comparable – at least when it comes to 2017 performance. Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez have been productive offensive performers, but Martinez’s 2017 season was extraordinary while Bruce’s was just very good and CarGo’s uncharacteristically unproductive (at least until the final several weeks).

 

Besides the obvious overall power production supplied by Martinez over the past three years, the outfielder/designated hitter has received universal praise from coaches who have worked with him. For more insight, read comments made by Arizona hitting coach Dave Magadan to WEEI.com and listen to Martinez's personal hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc on the Bradfo Sho podcast.

[oldtimer]

Yeah. Quite a disparity between what he wants and what looks to be on table. I walk away from 6 @ $180m.

 

http://www.weei.com/blogs/rob-bradford/red-sox-target-jd-martinez-digging-contract-demands

 

 

Spring training might not be the end of this offseason, after all.

 

According to FanRag Sports, Red Sox free agent target J.D. Martinez is willing to "hold out" for one more year than the Sox are currently offering, suggesting that the slugger could remain unsigned heading into February.

 

Multiple reports have stated that the Red Sox' offer to the 30-year-old is for five years, with Jon Heyman reporting that at least one other team willing to commit to the same duration.

 

Writes Heyman:

 

In any case, word coming out of Miami is that Martinez, 30, believes it appropriate that he get a six-year deal. It isn’t known what kind of total dollars the Red Sox, Diamondbacks and maybe others are offering (the Jays also have been showing interest and met with Martinez at the Winter Meetings), but sources suggest that Martinez is seeking $30 million-plus annually — $200 million if he can get it but at least $180 million, following his boffo season, first in Detroit and then Arizona.

 

The interested teams are believed offering somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range (yes, that’s a big range, but the offers to this point are unknown). So it’s believed he’s in the neighborhood of around $50 million short of the asking price at present. That sounds like a lot.

 

But Martinez’s willingness to wait is bolstered by the reality that there are multiple teams involved (Arizona’s involvement may have been underplayed to this point) at somewhat similar levels, and also the fact that there is no one comparable – at least when it comes to 2017 performance. Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez have been productive offensive performers, but Martinez’s 2017 season was extraordinary while Bruce’s was just very good and CarGo’s uncharacteristically unproductive (at least until the final several weeks).

 

Besides the obvious overall power production supplied by Martinez over the past three years, the outfielder/designated hitter has received universal praise from coaches who have worked with him. For more insight, read comments made by Arizona hitting coach Dave Magadan to WEEI.com and listen to Martinez's personal hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc on the Bradfo Sho podcast.

 

 

At this point, I would give JD a drop dead date and be prepared to walk away. In fact, I would make that date some time next week to allow us to make another deal if he refuses. Let someone else get him for 6 years and $180 mil. They will surely regret the day they make that kind of offer.

[mvp 78]

Heyman is never a reliable source as he is just a straight up shill for Boras. Edited January 11, 2018 by mvp 78

[Spudboy]

I read something similar this morning. I don't think it was from Heyman but he could have been the original source.

 

In any case I would go 5/140 and maybe, just maybe, 5/150 and then move on to what Kimmi suggests - starting pitching.

 

I don't like the idea of "positive regression" as those two words used in conjunction make no sense to me. However if they mean good players remaining healthy and doing more of what they had done prior to 2017 I can live with it.

 

Still, remaining stagnant with the offense is about the same as going backwards if the team does not score enough runs to win 93+ games again and or bows out in the first round or wild card.

 

My question now becomes what pitchers should be targeted? Kimmi says a number 2 or 3 type which makes sense. I was thinking a 3-4 but f*** that if the budget allows for a #2 then I say do it.

 

Who should the Sox target?

[Bellhorn04]

I don't like the idea of "positive regression" as those two words used in conjunction make no sense to me.

 

Regression is kind of a confusing word because it implies going backward. But one of the definitions is 'return to a previous place'. That's the meaning that's being used - going back to when things were better, basically.

[harmony]

I read something similar this morning. I don't think it was from Heyman but he could have been the original source.

 

In any case I would go 5/140 and maybe, just maybe, 5/150 and then move on to what Kimmi suggests - starting pitching.

 

I don't like the idea of "positive regression" as those two words used in conjunction make no sense to me. However if they mean good players remaining healthy and doing more of what they had done prior to 2017 I can live with it.

 

Still, remaining stagnant with the offense is about the same as going backwards if the team does not score enough runs to win 93+ games again and or bows out in the first round or wild card.

 

My question now becomes what pitchers should be targeted? Kimmi says a number 2 or 3 type which makes sense. I was thinking a 3-4 but f*** that if the budget allows for a #2 then I say do it.

 

Who should the Sox target?

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-red-sox-and-jd-martinez-remain-in-stalemate/

[mvp 78]

I read something similar this morning. I don't think it was from Heyman but he could have been the original source.

 

In any case I would go 5/140 and maybe, just maybe, 5/150 and then move on to what Kimmi suggests - starting pitching.

 

I don't like the idea of "positive regression" as those two words used in conjunction make no sense to me. However if they mean good players remaining healthy and doing more of what they had done prior to 2017 I can live with it.

 

Still, remaining stagnant with the offense is about the same as going backwards if the team does not score enough runs to win 93+ games again and or bows out in the first round or wild card.

 

My question now becomes what pitchers should be targeted? Kimmi says a number 2 or 3 type which makes sense. I was thinking a 3-4 but f*** that if the budget allows for a #2 then I say do it.

 

Who should the Sox target?

 

Arrieta, Cobb and Darvish would all cost a lot of money and have a few drawbacks. What about a cheaper option like Chris Tillman? He's only 29 and maybe he'd be cheaper after his injury plagued down year last year? He's also only looking for a one year deal.

 

Lance Lynn? Lackey?

[mvp 78]

https://www.fanragsports.com/heyman-red-sox-and-jd-martinez-remain-in-stalemate/

 

Heyman is a Boras shill.

[a700hitter]

DD shouldn’t wait until camp opens. Move on and make an earnest effort to get Machado, and then tinker with the pitching.

[harmony]

FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik suggests that Scott Boras may need to adjust to the current market:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-boras-might-need-to-adjust/

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs columnist Travis Sawchik suggests that Scott Boras may need to adjust to the current market:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scott-boras-might-need-to-adjust/

 

I would agree. Sometimes, I think he does his clients a disservice.

[Kimmi]

At this point, I would give JD a drop dead date and be prepared to walk away. In fact, I would make that date some time next week to allow us to make another deal if he refuses. Let someone else get him for 6 years and $180 mil. They will surely regret the day they make that kind of offer.

 

I just posted in the other thread that I'm getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him. JD doesn't seem like he's in any hurry to sign, willing to wait into ST. He doesn't seem very willing to budge on his unrealistic demands.

[Bellhorn04]

I just posted in the other thread that I'm getting to the point where I'm ready to move on from him. JD doesn't seem like he's in any hurry to sign, willing to wait into ST. He doesn't seem very willing to budge on his unrealistic demands.

 

But if nobody moves their offer, he'll have to budge. Two can play at the waiting game.

 

Hopefully Dombrowski is tending to some other matters like pitching depth.

[Kimmi]

I don't like the idea of "positive regression" as those two words used in conjunction make no sense to me. However if they mean good players remaining healthy and doing more of what they had done prior to 2017 I can live with it.

 

WARNING - Mini stat lesson below:

 

Many people associate the word 'regression' with negative direction. The reality is that regression can be negative or positive (bad or good), which is why I often use the term 'positive regression', to avoid such confusion, even though the word 'regression' by itself is sufficient.

 

Regression, or regression to the mean, basically is the tendency of data to be closer to the average after an above or below average measurement. So, if a player has a career type year, he is likely to drop off the following year, or regress. Likewise, if a player has a sub-par year, he is likely to have a better year the following year, or regress.

 

I think several of our hitters will regress this season, meaning that they will improve over what they did last season.

[Kimmi]

But if nobody moves their offer, he'll have to budge. Two can play at the waiting game.

 

Hopefully Dombrowski is tending to some other matters like pitching depth.

 

I understand that, but I take issue with a player who would hold his suitors hostage going into spring training.

[Bellhorn04]

I understand that, but I take issue with a player who would hold his suitors hostage going into spring training.

 

Normally I would too, but this has been such a weird offseason and there are so many unsigned big name players, I don't think anyone really knows exactly what's going on.

[Spudboy]

I guess I have learned that regression means something that it did not mean when I was younger.

 

Sort of like Donuts being in the dictionary along with Doughnuts.

 

Still sounds antithetical.

[Bellhorn04]

I have always found the word 'remission' a strange one. It sounds like a bad thing but it's actually a very good thing.

[Bellhorn04]

Then there's that Seinfeld episode where George is told by the doctor that his test results are negative, and George is going 'Negative? Oh no, Lord, why me?'