2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[Behindenemylines]

JBJ was the 25th best player in 2016. Xander was the 26th. I think a lot of people wouldn't mind moving on from Xander, but are hesitant on moving on from JBJ. Why?

 

JBJ defense is off the charts, while Xander’s is so so at short. That is why people are quicker to want to move him.

[Larry Cook]

JBJ defense is off the charts, while Xander’s is so so at short. That is why people are quicker to want to move him.

 

So-so is three floors up from where bogey resides.

[Bellhorn04]

So-so is three floors up from where bogey resides.

 

Not true. All the metrics have him just around average or a hair below. So-so is a fair description.

[Hitch]

Yea Bogey gets too much criticism for his defence. It's not great, but its not poor either. His hitting is what bothers me. He should be producing more power. I'm hoping Cora sorts out his swing. 20 a year from Bogey should not be asking too much.

[harmony]

Yea Bogey gets too much criticism for his defence. It's not great, but its not poor either. His hitting is what bothers me. He should be producing more power. I'm hoping Cora sorts out his swing. 20 a year from Bogey should not be asking too much.

Baseball Reference provides these eerily similar 2018 projections for Xander Bogaerts and Seattle shortstop Jean Segura:

 

XB 589 PA, 13 HR, .292/.354/.433/.786

JS 552 PA, 13 HR, .292/.340/.437/.777

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml

 

Over the past two seasons Bogaerts has posted 8.1 fWAR. valued at $54.3 million, in 305 games while Segura has posted 7.9 fWAR, valued at $53 million, in 278 games.

 

Segura, who is two-and-half years older than Bogaerts, remains under team control for five seasons at $70 million, with a team option for a sixth year, while Bogaerts is under team control for two seasons with a projected 2018 salary of $7.6 million.

 

Each faded in the second half of 2017:

 

1st Half

XB 82 G, 351 PA, .303/.359/.447/.806

JS 60 G, 273 PA, .349/.390/.482/.872

 

2nd Half

XB 66 G, 284 PA, .235/.324/.347/.671

JS 65 G, 293 PA, .253/.311/.375/.686

 

Nevertheless, Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 3.5 for Bogaerts and 2.1 for Segura:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d

Edited December 29, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Not true. All the metrics have him just around average or a hair below. So-so is a fair description.

 

Not true. One metric have Bogey as being awful.

 

DRS

2017: 20th out of 20 at -11 (29th out of 30 with 600+ innings)

Only the injured Reyes was worse.

I guess 19th out of 30 in UZR/150 can be called "so-so," but he's just 0.4 away from 22nd. (Adding 1.4 keeps him ranked 19th.)

 

2016-2017 combined: (33 SSs with 1000+ innings)

33rd in DRS at -21 (Only 4 other SSs are below -10!!!!) That's horrible!

Only 9 other SSs are negative in DRS.

He's 19th out of 33 in UZR/150 at -2.3- very close to the mean.

[Bellhorn04]

Not true. One metric have Bogey as being awful.

 

DRS

2017: 20th out of 20 at -11 (29th out of 30 with 600+ innings)

Only the injured Reyes was worse.

I guess 19th out of 30 in UZR/150 can be called "so-so," but he's just 0.4 away from 22nd. (Adding 1.4 keeps him ranked 19th.)

 

2016-2017 combined: (33 SSs with 1000+ innings)

33rd in DRS at -21 (Only 4 other SSs are below -10!!!!) That's horrible!

Only 9 other SSs are negative in DRS.

He's 19th out of 33 in UZR/150 at -2.3- very close to the mean.

 

This get a little confusing. Is he horrible or slightly below average? UZR/150 is the only defensive metric I look at.

[cp176]

This get a little confusing. Is he horrible or slightly below average? UZR/150 is the only defensive metric I look at.

 

If it is even possible that there can be this much discrepancy with respect to stats that you guys think are that reliable then does it not give a certain amount of credibility to the people who choose to rely on the eye test? Bogey is an average ss - JBJ is abut as good as it gets in center - JD really isn't all that bad in left. Come on.

[moonslav59]

This get a little confusing. Is he horrible or slightly below average? UZR/150 is the only defensive metric I look at.

 

Well, you said, "all the metrics," so I assumed you looked at more than just one.

 

My guess is Bogey is somewhere between just below average (17th to 20th) and near the worst (27th to 30th).

 

If you split the difference, he's maybe 22nd to 25th, which is where I'd place him based on my limited knowledge of other teams' starting SS defense.

 

He's clearly no a plus, and I think saying he is "so-so" is being generous. Using only UZR/150, I guess being 19th out of 30 could be considered "s0-s0".

[moonslav59]

If it is even possible that there can be this much discrepancy with respect to stats that you guys think are that reliable then does it not give a certain amount of credibility to the people who choose to rely on the eye test? Bogey is an average ss - JBJ is abut as good as it gets in center - JD really isn't all that bad in left. Come on.

 

One says 19th. One says 30th. I guess that's a pretty wide gap, but not as wide as one's personal opinion vs another's based on observations that involve a gross distortion of sample sizes viewed and probable homer bias.

 

Let's go back to 2014 and include Bogey's decent 2015 season. Here are the rankings:

 

32 SSs with 2000+ Innings

 

20th UZR/150 (-1.7)

 

31st in DRS (-31)

 

(Note: since DRS is a influences by more and more innings, Bogey would rank about 28th out of 32 in DRS per inning.)

 

I think the numbers show he's bottom third tier at best.

 

 

2015 to 2017, his best sample size:

 

17th out of 31 in UZR/150

 

28th out of 31 in DRS

 

These are the SSs fangraphs has as "average" from 2015-2017. Is Bogey really as good as these guys?

 

UZR/150

12. Tulowitzki 3.5

13. Gregorius 3.4

14. A Escobar 3.0

15. Swanson -0.6

16. T Story -0.7

17. Bogey -1.2

18. Segura -2.6

 

 

Edited December 30, 2017 by moonslav59

[cp176]

One says 19th. One says 30th. I guess that's a pretty wide gap, but not as wide as one's personal opinion vs another's based on observations that involve a gross distortion of sample sizes viewed and probable homer bias.

 

Let's go back to 2014 and include Bogey's decent 2015 season. Here are the rankings:

 

32 SSs with 2000+ Innings

 

20th UZR/150 (-1.7)

 

31st in DRS (-31)

 

(Note: since DRS is a influences by more and more innings, Bogey would rank about 28th out of 32 in DRS per inning.)

 

I think the numbers show he's bottom third tier at best.

 

 

 

I think that the case might be that it would depend upon who you are listening to with respect to personal opinions. Do you really think Moon that there could possibly be this much of a discerepancy coming from two reputable statistical sources? My guess would be that you don't. If it is possible then anyone who thinks they are more informed than someone with an educated opinion is just kidding themselves. Nothing is foolproof I get that but really that much of a difference?

[moonslav59]

I think that the case might be that it would depend upon who you are listening to with respect to personal opinions. Do you really think Moon that there could possibly be this much of a discerepancy coming from two reputable statistical sources? My guess would be that you don't. If it is possible then anyone who thinks they are more informed than someone with an educated opinion is just kidding themselves. Nothing is foolproof I get that but really that much of a difference?

 

My guess is, if you polled fans or baseball writers, you find a wide gap in opinions on where Bogey ranks on defense.

 

My guess is you;d find a wider gap that 19th vs 30th out of 30.

 

It does concern me that the gap between 19th and 30th is so wide, but that does not mean I'll throw both metrics out the window. They both are probably more objective and fair than my own observations. I've played baseball a lot in my life. I've watched thousands of games, of which over 95% involved a Sox game. I love defense and pay particular attention to it, especially SS defense. Does that make me an "expert?" Probably not, but I do think I have a pretty good idea about what tremendous defense is at SS, what is average, and what is below average or awful (by ML standards).

 

Personally,, I'd guess Bogey is somewhere between 22nd and 28th on defense, but I really have no way of knowing, since I barely watch more than 3 games by some SSs per year. I feel pretty certain, he's between 19th and 30th as the two metrics place him. Probably UZR/150 ranks him higher than he belongs and DRS lower than he belongs. Perhaps one is way off. I seriously doubt both have him off to the point where he is really ranked 13th to 17th or "average".

[notin]

If it is even possible that there can be this much discrepancy with respect to stats that you guys think are that reliable then does it not give a certain amount of credibility to the people who choose to rely on the eye test? Bogey is an average ss - JBJ is abut as good as it gets in center - JD really isn't all that bad in left. Come on.

 

The eye test isn't subjective?

[jacksonianmarch]

Bogey is a minus defensive SS. Color me shocked. He’s been an offense first guy who can play a defense first position. Why do your think his WAR is so high? Don’t mince words and try to put lipstick on a pig.

[Hitch]

Machado rumours heating up. Send Bogey to the O's (with extras) and take Machado. Do it right now.

[a700hitter]

Machado rumours heating up. Send Bogey to the O's (with extras) and take Machado. Do it right now.

Where are you seeing/hearing these rumors?

[cp176]

The eye test isn't subjective?

 

Of course it is notin. Not everybody gets listened to. Kind of looks as though the metrics being used can be brought to question from the looks of things as well.

[cp176]

My guess is, if you polled fans or baseball writers, you find a wide gap in opinions on where Bogey ranks on defense.

 

My guess is you;d find a wider gap that 19th vs 30th out of 30.

 

It does concern me that the gap between 19th and 30th is so wide, but that does not mean I'll throw both metrics out the window. They both are probably more objective and fair than my own observations. I've played baseball a lot in my life. I've watched thousands of games, of which over 95% involved a Sox game. I love defense and pay particular attention to it, especially SS defense. Does that make me an "expert?" Probably not, but I do think I have a pretty good idea about what tremendous defense is at SS, what is average, and what is below average or awful (by ML standards).

 

Personally,, I'd guess Bogey is somewhere between 22nd and 28th on defense, but I really have no way of knowing, since I barely watch more than 3 games by some SSs per year. I feel pretty certain, he's between 19th and 30th as the two metrics place him. Probably UZR/150 ranks him higher than he belongs and DRS lower than he belongs. Perhaps one is way off. I seriously doubt both have him off to the point where he is really ranked 13th to 17th or "average".

 

I'm really ok with your answer here. I am glad though that your use of the word probably tells me that you do see that the metrics very well might not tell us everything you want to know. Now before notin jumps in here please understand that I realize how important the use of consistent reliable statistical data is. In my world, it isn't a competition between observation and statistics. Use everything that you can.

[baseball jones]

this is the only time of year we need the boston sports media to actually do their jobs and all we get is misled with their stupid opinions.not only are they harmful but their useless !!!

[Hitch]

Where are you seeing/hearing these rumors?

 

CBS and then reported by a few other outlets.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-trade-rumors-red-sox-remain-interested-in-orioles-machado/

[Larry Cook]

Where are you seeing/hearing these rumors?

 

I saw an article on this on nbc sports Boston.

 

Seems Manny wants to play short next year. Dave would be foolish to do this deal without getting an extension first.

 

Some reporters have speculated bogey, Rodriguez, groome and chavis would get the deal done.

[harmony]

My guess is, if you polled fans or baseball writers, you find a wide gap in opinions on where Bogey ranks on defense.

Xander Bogaerts was not among the 21 shortstops who received votes in this year's Fielding Bible awards:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

Bogaerts finished 11th among shortstops in 2015 but has been shut out in all other years:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2015.asp

 

The Fielding Bible uses a panel of 10 baseball "experts" to rank defenders at each position:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-panel.asp

 

Each expert lists the his/its top 10 defenders at each position, with a player getting 10 points for being ranked No. 1 by an expert and 1 point for being ranked No. 10:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/about-the-fielding-bible.asp

[moonslav59]

Xander Bogaerts was not among the 21 shortstops who received votes in this year's Fielding Bible awards:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

 

Bogaerts finished 11th among shortstops in 2015 but has been shut out in all other years:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2015.asp

 

The Fielding Bible uses a panel of 10 baseball "experts" to rank defenders at each position:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-panel.asp

 

Each expert lists the his/its top 10 defenders at each position, with a player getting 10 points for being ranked No. 1 by an expert and 1 point for being ranked No. 10:

 

http://www.fieldingbible.com/about-the-fielding-bible.asp

 

I was going to go back and look at all the Fielding Bible rankings. Although each voter casts 10 votes, usually 15-18 players get one vote from someone. The fact that Bogey only placed one year, shows more evidence that he is not top 15-18.

[Spudboy]

If it is even possible that there can be this much discrepancy with respect to stats that you guys think are that reliable then does it not give a certain amount of credibility to the people who choose to rely on the eye test? Bogey is an average ss - JBJ is abut as good as it gets in center - JD really isn't all that bad in left. Come on.

 

Boom.

 

Bell has his own answer, I am sure. He has seen Bogey play enough to know that he does not suck and that he is not among the very best SS.

 

f*** defensive metrics if they don't reflect reality and don't even agree with each other.

[Spudboy]

The eye test isn't subjective?

 

And the dweebs that gather the UZR data are not either?

[moonslav59]

And the dweebs that gather the UZR data are not either?

 

Of course there has to be some subjectivity, but they rotate these dweebs, and together they watch every play of every single game... something us dweebs cannot do by ourselves.

 

[harmony]

Boom.

 

Bell has his own answer, I am sure. He has seen Bogey play enough to know that he does not suck and that he is not among the very best SS.

 

f*** defensive metrics if they don't reflect reality and don't even agree with each other.

That's why I cited the Fielding Bible where 10 different individuals who follow baseball subjectively submit their votes, sometimes based on observation, sometimes on metrics and I suspect often on a combination of both.

[moonslav59]

What the Fielding Bible also shows is how individual voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings, which kind of supports my point about how the differences between UZR/150 and DRS for Bogey might be less than what you might find between two individual observers.

 

On 2017 SS defense:

 

9 had Addison Russell between #2 and 4, yet one did not have him in the top 10.

9 had Brandon Crawford between #2 and 5, yet one did not have him in the top 10.

One had Lindor #1 while 4 had him 7th or 8th.

One had Javier Baez 2nd, while 3 had him 9th and the rest not rated.

All in all, 21 SSs received at least one vote. Bogey had none.

 

In 2016, 17 SSs got at least one vote: Bogey got none.

 

In 2015, Bogey's one decent year defensively, Bogey placed 11th out of 17 SSs receiving votes.

[cp176]

What the Fielding Bible also shows is how individual voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings, which kind of supports my point about how the differences between UZR/150 and DRS for Bogey might be less than what you might find between two individual observers.

 

On 2017 SS defense:

 

9 had Addison Russell between #2 and 4, yet one did not have him in the top 10.

9 had Brandon Crawford between #2 and 5, yet one did not have him in the top 10.

One had Lindor #1 while 4 had him 7th or 8th.

One had Javier Baez 2nd, while 3 had him 9th and the rest not rated.

All in all, 21 SSs received at least one vote. Bogey had none.

 

In 2016, 17 SSs got at least one vote: Bogey got none.

 

In 2015, Bogey's one decent year defensively, Bogey placed 11th out of 17 SSs receiving votes.

 

This is really starting to make me chuckle now. the FIELDING BIBLE - now that sounds pretty damn impressive for sure but Moon are you saying that this BIBLE shows how voters sometimes vary widely on their rankings? I'm looking at the info you have listed and I am seeing quite the discrepancy as well. Who you gonna believe these days? It just is not right when these folks who gather all this information and put it to the test can't be counted on to just agree!

[cp176]

Boom.

 

Bell has his own answer, I am sure. He has seen Bogey play enough to know that he does not suck and that he is not among the very best SS.

 

f*** defensive metrics if they don't reflect reality and don't even agree with each other.

 

 

it is laughable. it's why I just enjoy watching the game and will continue to formulate my own opinions and express them.