2017/18 Hot Stove Thread

[notin]

SS - We all love JBJ out there in centerfield. I'm a little confused by this discussion. Seems like some of us just like him more than others. I don't hear anybody saying that we should trade him. Of course it is possible. It should be. Almost all of them are tradeable.

 

I'm not saying anyone should trade Bradley, but I am saying someone will...

[notin]

It means that he has less value than most people on here think he does.

 

Maybe, but his value isn't solely based on defense. How many of the 8higher ranked players are worse hitters? How many make more money? Have more years of control?

[moonslav59]

It means that he has less value than most people on here think he does.

 

Not nessisarily, just because he may be the 10th best defensive CF'er, it doesn't mean he's way worse than anyone ahead of him. Plus, how many of the better defenders hit and run the bases as well as JBJ? Then, how many are up for grabs this winter?

[cp176]

Not nessisarily, just because he may be the 10th best defensive CF'er, it doesn't mean he's way worse than anyone ahead of him. Plus, how many of the better defenders hit and run the bases as well as JBJ? Then, how many are up for grabs this winter?

 

I think Moon that MVP's statement stands alone here pretty well though. Many of us think that he is a helluva lot better than 10th on the list of defensive center fielders but we still think that as a whole body of work many of us as fans do over rate him. It is what we tend to do up here.

[notin]

I think Moon that MVP's statement stands alone here pretty well though. Many of us think that he is a helluva lot better than 10th on the list of defensive center fielders but we still think that as a whole body of work many of us as fans do over rate him. It is what we tend to do up here.

 

Fangraphs ranked him at #45 for trade value. I don't recall if any of the nine ranked ahead of him defensively even made the list, but certainly all nine didn't. ..

[S5Dewey]

This entire discussion reminds me of a study done by the University of Maine several years ago regarding whether burning wood was a viable source of heat for a home in the winter in Maine.

I never heard the results of the study but I certainly hope they decided it was since we'd been doing it for hundreds of years. But it did raise the question of what we'd tell our grandparents if UM decided it wasn't!

 

Sometimes our lyin' eyes are pretty accurate.

[moonslav59]

I think Moon that MVP's statement stands alone here pretty well though. Many of us think that he is a helluva lot better than 10th on the list of defensive center fielders but we still think that as a whole body of work many of us as fans do over rate him. It is what we tend to do up here.

 

I get that, but I think there is a strong negative connotation to being labelled 10th best out of 30. To me, there is not much difference between the top 10, or at least 3-10, so (IMO) I don't think the ranking diminishes my view on JBJ's value. He's also a very good base runner, Together, these factors help lessen the negatives associated with his inconsistent hitting.

 

IMO, he has a lot of value, and other GMs know it and want him. I would not choose to trade a cost-effective player like JBJ. He still has 3 years of control remaining. Our pitchers need JBJ having their backs.

 

.

[OH FOY]

Frustrating thing for me about JBJ he just does not use the wall to his advantage. He's mature enough to know that by now. He'll always be a .250 hitter, 16-20 HRS guy to me. Never had the Power for this Park. Even in the Minors didn't have it.

Unless your Ozzie Smith, your not going to get big bucks, for being a Defensive Centerfielder. You got to hit. He'll be 30, going into season at age 31, wheels start slowing down, you start losing what you had at 25, you better hit.

Edited December 27, 2017 by OH FOY!

[harmony]

A blogger discusses potential trade destinations for Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

http://thesportsdaily.com/chin-music-baseball/jackie-bradley-jr-mlb-trade-rumors-giants-white-sox-royals/

[Jack Flap]

Moon, S5, and others will remember the long debates back in the old country (BDC) about whether JBJ would ever be able to even hit .200...I guess my offensive expectations for him are still tempered by the memory of that time period, and personally I still feel thrilled to get a .240-.250 BA, 15 HR, and low/mid-.700s OPS out of him along with what he contributes with his glove (and, looking at his 2015 and 2016 seasons, I think there's still good reason to think he's capable of a good deal more than that).

 

The bottom line is of course you trade him if it would legitimately improve the club, but that remains to be seen. For the moment, I'm damn glad we have him.

[mvp 78]

Maybe, but his value isn't solely based on defense. How many of the 8higher ranked players are worse hitters? How many make more money? Have more years of control?

 

JBJ doesn't have that many more years of control left.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=21,d

 

Guys that are much much better than JBJ:

Trout

Blackmon

Yelich

Springer

 

Guys that are younger and have a higher ceiling:

Buxton

Herrera

 

Older guys with higher peaks than JBJ:

McCutchen

Cain

 

Guy most similar to JBJ but more consistent:

Inciarte

 

One year wonders:

Pham

Taylor

 

IF everything goes right for JBJ and he gets in a groove all year, he's probably a top 5 CF. We've NEVER seen a full year from him like that before. He's good for a 30 day stretch and then either fine or below average otherwise.

[mvp 78]

When JBJ came up, a lot of people were comparing his offensive profile to Ken Griffey Sr (high average not a ton of power, but can knock a few out). Unfortunately, he doesn't hit for a high enough average to get that profile.

[Bellhorn04]

IF everything goes right for JBJ and he gets in a groove all year, he's probably a top 5 CF. We've NEVER seen a full year from him like that before.

 

What was his final ranking among CF'ers for 2016?

[Hitch]

A blogger discusses potential trade destinations for Jackie Bradley Jr.:

 

http://thesportsdaily.com/chin-music-baseball/jackie-bradley-jr-mlb-trade-rumors-giants-white-sox-royals/

 

 

That's a pretty useless piece of writing seeing as half the teams he's discussing he mentions don't really have the prospects to do the trade. If we trade JJB it most certainly is not for prospects.

[mvp 78]

What was his final ranking among CF'ers for 2016?

 

He was great in 2016. Unfortunately for overall WAR standings, there are some younger guys that are catching up and should surpass even the best version of JBJ this year (Springer, Yelich, Buxton, Conforto, Hicks). He could have another 5 WAR season and may not be in the top 5 CFers.

[mvp 78]

As I've posted before:

 

JBJ is good for one great month.

 

2015:

5/10 - 8/8 146 BABIP and 426 OPS

8/9 - 9/7 577 BABIP and 1441 OPS

9/8 - 10/4 173 BABIP and 510 OPS

 

2016:

4/5 - 5/4 348 BABIP and 792 OPS

5/5 - 5/30 400 BABIP and 1232 OPS

6/1 - 9/30 289 BABIP and 765 OPS

 

April - May: BABIP 220 OPS 669

May 30th - July 4th: BABIP 412 OPS 1029

July 5th - Sept: BABIP 263 OPS 598

 

It looks like he'll continue on the one hot month per year path.

 

If he didn't have that crazy hot streak in 2012 and had a .792 OPS, it still would have been an ok season. However, there were 16 CFers with OPS above .800 last year. (JBJ wasn't one of them)

[Bellhorn04]

He was great in 2016. Unfortunately for overall WAR standings, there are some younger guys that are catching up and should surpass even the best version of JBJ this year (Springer, Yelich, Buxton, Conforto, Hicks). He could have another 5 WAR season and may not be in the top 5 CFers.

 

If he has a 5 WAR season that's pretty freakin' good regardless.

[mvp 78]

If he has a 5 WAR season that's pretty freakin' good regardless.

 

Sure is, but I wouldn't count on that happening very often going forward.

[notin]

Sure is, but I wouldn't count on that happening very often going forward.

 

There aren't many players you can count on for a 5.0 fWAR season. In fact, just having one puts a player in the smallest minority. ..

[mvp 78]

There aren't many players you can count on for a 5.0 fWAR season. In fact, just having one puts a player in the smallest minority. ..

 

JBJ was the 25th best player in 2016. Xander was the 26th. I think a lot of people wouldn't mind moving on from Xander, but are hesitant on moving on from JBJ. Why?

[S5Dewey]

JBJ was the 25th best player in 2016. Xander was the 26th. I think a lot of people wouldn't mind moving on from Xander, but are hesitant on moving on from JBJ. Why?

 

That's easy. It's because those two are entirely two different types of players. One gets the bulk of his WAR from offense and the other from defense. Those of us who want JBJ to remain on the team have defense higher than those who want HIM traded. Vice versa for Bogaerts.

[cp176]

JBJ was the 25th best player in 2016. Xander was the 26th. I think a lot of people wouldn't mind moving on from Xander, but are hesitant on moving on from JBJ. Why?

 

I'm thinking that you know the answer to this one. Xander defense by some is seen as being much worse than average. JBJ's not so much.

I'm ambivalent about them both. Happy to keep them both or if the return was worth it - "don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya!" But , hey I feel this way about most of our current crop.

[notin]

JBJ was the 25th best player in 2016. Xander was the 26th. I think a lot of people wouldn't mind moving on from Xander, but are hesitant on moving on from JBJ. Why?

 

Of the two, I would trade Bogaerts before Bradley, and the deciding factor is that Bradley has more years of control.

[Jack Flap]

I'm not in any rush to move on from either.

[mvp 78]

Of the two, I would trade Bogaerts before Bradley, and the deciding factor is that Bradley has more years of control.

 

He has one more year of control. I think it's more likely that Bogaerts could replicate 2016 than Bradley.

[harmony]

The Red Sox sign former top prospect Mike Olt to a minor league contract:

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox sign former top prospect Mike Olt to a minor league contract:

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml

 

Dave is back in action!

[moonslav59]

Dave is back in action!

 

The season ticket office just reported a huge spike in activity!

[Jack Flap]

The season ticket office just reported a huge spike in activity!

 

Cashman says forget about Stanton, the Red Sox are the Golden State Warriors of baseball again.

[notin]

The Red Sox sign former top prospect Mike Olt to a minor league contract:

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/oltmi01.shtml

 

Bestill my throbbing nipples...