A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[S5Dewey]

The pitching probably wont hold up in the playoffs, but I don't see the need for blowing up the team.

 

I don't think the pitching is 'all that bad' but OTOH I do agree that it may not hold up in the playoffs. My bigger concern is the straight-up lack of fundamentals, the little things that don't always show up in the book but can make a difference, e.g. forgetting how many outs there are!

 

My even bigger concern is our manager. I think he's a good enough manager for the regular season but if he gets into the ring mano-a-mano with Tito or the like only one of them is going to walk away, and it won't be John Farrell.

 

The good news is that we're now "worried" about what happens to the Sox in the playoffs, and we all know that anything... or something strange.... can happen in the playoffs so our chances are [almost] as good as anyone's. If we get there.

 

BTW, I see you've added a second great sig line!

[moonslav59]

Can't we trade for Brian Dozier (FA 2019) over the winter ( have him and Pedey and XB split time Dh-ing ) and not sign a 1B-man? Have HanRam/Travis for 1B. Lose Moreland and Young and resign Nunez....

 

Oh... Mods should move this post to Realistic Part 4 when it comes out:D thanx

 

40HR Dozier or 25 HR Dozier.

 

I think your idea has merit. 25-30 HRs is better than Moreland's 15-18, but at what cost?

[Slasher9]

The pitching probably wont hold up in the playoffs, but I don't see the need for blowing up the team.

 

with the extra days off in the postseason we can get away having 3 starters. Sale, Pom, and 1 from Erod/Porcello (whoever has the hot hand - i would vote erod right now). in a 5 game series we throw Sale 2x. we just need 1 win out of 3. if Pom keeps proving me wrong like he has all season i like our chances.

[Emp9]

40HR Dozier or 25 HR Dozier.

 

I think your idea has merit. 25-30 HRs is better than Moreland's 15-18, but at what cost?

 

Dozier makes $9M next season, so that plus some prospects? Just an idea

[sk7326]

Swihart did catch a significant amount of time in the Sox system. He caught over 335 games on the farm and got 78 games at the big league level. That's not a whole lot, but I got the feeling Sox brass did not like his progression in these hard-to-measure areas.

 

To a degree - but they also had a high floor option in Vasquez. And Swihart missed a lot of reps with injury - but there is still a player there I think.

[moonslav59]

Dozier makes $9M next season, so that plus some prospects? Just an idea

 

It depends on the prospects.

[oldtimer]

Can't we trade for Brian Dozier (FA 2019) over the winter ( have him and Pedey and XB split time Dh-ing ) and not sign a 1B-man? Have HanRam/Travis for 1B. Lose Moreland and Young and resign Nunez....

 

Oh... Mods should move this post to Realistic Part 4 when it comes out:D thanx

 

I think we should replace Moreland, Young, Holt and possibly Bogaerts. Will Bogey be worth what he will be asking?

 

We need to resign Nunez if possible and with Pedey possibly having ongoing injury issues a backup for him would be great. Dozier would be a great possibility if we can get him. The idea of spliting time at 2nd base and DH is also a good one. The question is whether Hanley can hold together as a 1st baseman for a whole season, given his shoulder issues. Paying a part timer $22 Million is a little hard to swallow. Lin could fill our utility infielder role but who do you suggest to replace Young? Bogey would be hard to replace.

[oldtimer]

I should have asked if the ship has sailed on Castillo as a replacement for Young. He has more time in the US and may be useable as a 4th outfielder. His minor league numbers don't look that bad. Would adding his salary prelude his use on the roster?

[Slasher9]

I should have asked if the ship has sailed on Castillo as a replacement for Young. He has more time in the US and may be useable as a 4th outfielder. His minor league numbers don't look that bad. Would adding his salary prelude his use on the roster?

 

that's 100% why he hasnt been brought up this year. i expect we will see him next year.

[moonslav59]

We could use Holt as the 4th OF'er, but if we sign Nunez, he could play LF.

 

I don't see Lin in the picture, unless someone gets hurt. I see Hernandez as our utility IF'er over Holt, Lin and Marrero.

 

It all depends on who we sign. My guess is, we'll sign a 1Bman, and if we get one who can also play LF, maybe we can do without a true 4th OF'er, especially if Holt is still around.

 

Signing an OF'er who can DH makes less sense to me.

 

Trading for Dozier or signing Nunez makes more sense as well.

 

There just are not that many great FA options out there this year that meet our biggest needs:

 

Power clean-up hitter

 

Shorter term contract

 

[moonslav59]

that's 100% why he hasnt been brought up this year. i expect we will see him next year.

 

I don't. I get the argument that by adding him to the 40 man roster the luxury tax will be less than signing a FA like Young, but the 2 big flaws outweigh the possible plus.

 

1) He may not be as good as Young, or whoever we might have signed or even a cheaper Brentz.

 

2) Once we re-add him to the 40 man roster, his $11M AVV will count against our luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract, even if we send him back down or remove him from the 40 man roster. That's 3 more years of taxes that could be 20%, then 30% then 50%. That's an "extra" tax of about $11M, which is close to what we paid Young for 2 years combined, or is the equivalent of a decent RP'er for 3 years.

[Kimmi]

I don't. I get the argument that by adding him to the 40 man roster the luxury tax will be less than signing a FA like Young, but the 2 big flaws outweigh the possible plus.

 

1) He may not be as good as Young, or whoever we might have signed or even a cheaper Brentz.

 

2) Once we re-add him to the 40 man roster, his $11M AVV will count against our luxury tax budget for the remainder of his contract, even if we send him back down or remove him from the 40 man roster. That's 3 more years of taxes that could be 20%, then 30% then 50%. That's an "extra" tax of about $11M, which is close to what we paid Young for 2 years combined, or is the equivalent of a decent RP'er for 3 years.

 

Are you sure that's the case? I really have no idea, but he was on the 40 man at one time, and once he was removed, his salary no longer counted. Wouldn't that be the case again if he is removed from the 40 man?

[moonslav59]

Are you sure that's the case? I really have no idea, but he was on the 40 man at one time, and once he was removed, his salary no longer counted. Wouldn't that be the case again if he is removed from the 40 man?

 

Yes, I read somewhere that the new CBA specifically addressed this type of situation. In the new baseball agreement, the Red Sox "would have the average annual value of Castillo’s contract (around $10.4MM) counted on their luxury tax calculations through the end of the outfielder’s deal in 2020, even if they called up Castillo for even just one day... Castillo may not have a clear path back to the bigs at all for over three years."

 

Here's the link:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/06/22/rusney-castillo-reborn-but-also-stuck-pawtucket/WXXV4C6o8xF3h4zCC5q6KL/story.html

 

Note: Castillo has an opt-out after 2019. Perhaps we can make some sort of agreement the Player's Association will be okay with that allows him to find another place to play and take some of the money loss away.

[harmony]

I think we should replace Moreland, Young, Holt and possibly Bogaerts. Will Bogey be worth what he will be asking?

In June of this year Seattle shortstop Jean Segura signed a five-year, $70 million extension through the 2022 season with the Mariners buying out his final year of arbitration.

 

Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts has two more arbitration years before entering free agency following the 2019 season.

 

This year the 27-year-old Segura has posted 2.2 fWAR in 89 games while the nearly 25-year-old Bogaerts has posted 1.8 fWAR in 107 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Since the start of the 2016 season Segura has posted 7.2 fWAR in 242 games while Bogaerts has posted 6.6 fWAR in 264 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

How much will agent Scott Boras be asking on behalf of Bogaerts?

[moonslav59]

In June of this year Seattle shortstop Jean Segura signed a five-year, $70 million extension through the 2022 season with the Mariners buying out his final year of arbitration.

 

Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts has two more arbitration years before entering free agency following the 2019 season.

 

This year the 27-year-old Segura has posted 2.2 fWAR in 89 games while the nearly 25-year-old Bogaerts has posted 1.8 fWAR in 107 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Since the start of the 2016 season Segura has posted 7.2 fWAR in 242 games while Bogaerts has posted 6.6 fWAR in 264 games:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

How much will agent Scott Boras be asking on behalf of Bogaerts?

 

What matters most with Segura's $70M/5 extension was his production before the signing, the buyout of 2017, the $3M bonus and 5 years with a team option for 6 at $17M ($1M buyout) extension.

 

Segura's history:

He was 27 when he got the 5 year extension. He will turn 32 during the 5th year.

He began playing FT at age 23 and played 4 full seasons before 2017.

 

OPS

.752

.614

.616

.867

(.803 so far in 2017)

 

WAR

B-R/fangraphs

4.0/3.5

0.6/0.0

0.0/0.3

5.6/5.0

2017 2.2/2.3

 

Segura played 3 full seasons before his first arb year and made $2.6M his first arb year (2016) and was making $6.2M this year (2nd arb of 3).

 

It's hard to compare Bogey with Segura due to a number of things:

1) Bogey was younger when he started.

2) Bogey has not finished this year, next year and half of 2019.

3) The "going rates" might change in 2 years.

 

Bogey made $4.2M in his first arb year out of 3.

He will turn 27 just after his last arb year (close to JS)

He started playing FT at age 21.

 

OPS

.660

.776

.802

2017: .729 so far

 

WAR

0.3/0.3

4.6/4.3

3.7/4.7

2017 0.9/1.8

 

Tough call for me to make.

Bogey might make $6-8M next year (2nd arb of 3), and depending ho well he's doing, he could make much more in 2019.

 

Edited August 16, 2017 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Updated from another thread...

 

Runs per game with Devers playing:

95 in 17 games= 5.6

 

Runs per game with Nunez playing:

96 in 16 games= 6.0

 

Nunez did not play 7/25 (5 runs scored) and 7/26 (4 runs scored)

Devers did not play 8/9 (8 runs scored)

 

Both players have made a tremendous difference in our run scoring.

Devers 13 R + 13 RBI - 6 HR= 20 in 17 games

Nunez 10R + 13 RBI - 4 HR= 19 in 16 games

 

I'm not taking anything away from Devers here. Without him, we'd have lost a few more games, but Nunez has been huge as well.

 

Small sample size alert, but both have been worth at least a run per game played!

 

 

 

[harmony]

What matters most with Segura's $70M/5 extension was his production before the signing, the buyout of 2017, the $3M bonus and 5 years with a team option for 6 at $17M ($1M buyout) extension.

To be precise, Seattle did not buy out 2017 when Jean Segura retains his salary of $6.2 million. The five-year, $70 million extension covers 2018 to 2022 (with the team option for 2023).

[moonslav59]

To be precise, Seattle did not buy out 2017 when Jean Segura retains his salary of $6.2 million. The five-year, $70 million extension covers 2018 to 2022 (with the team option for 2023).

 

Doesn't the $3M signing bonus essentially give him $9.2M for 2017?

[harmony]

Doesn't the $3M signing bonus essentially give him $9.2M for 2017?

When the Red Sox signed Dustin Pedroia and Rick Porcello to in-season extensions with signing bonuses, the bonuses were spread over the length of the contract, not against that season's earnings.

 

 

For luxury tax purposes, Segura's contract counts $14 million annually for the five years, including the signing bonus and the buyout of the sixth-year option.

 

Xander Bogaerts was among three shortstops critiqued Tuesday by FanGraphs columnist Tony Blengino:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-struggles-of-three-shortstops/

Edited August 16, 2017 by harmony

[moonslav59]

When the Red Sox signed Dustin Pedroia and Rick Porcello to in-season extensions with signing bonuses, the bonuses were spread over the length of the contract, not against that season's earnings.

 

 

For luxury tax purposes, Segura's contract counts $14 million annually for the five years, including the signing bonus and the buyout of the sixth-year option.

 

Xander Bogaerts was among three shortstops critiqued Tuesday by FanGraphs columnist Tony Blengino:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-struggles-of-three-shortstops/

 

Yes, the bonus counts as part of the AVV and is "spread out" for tax purposes, but I think Segura got the $3M at the signing.

 

Giving players more up front money than they'd have gotten otherwise, sometimes helps lessen the overall cost (or back-end cost).

 

I think the M's did well locking him up.

[oldtimer]

Updated from another thread...

 

Runs per game with Devers playing:

95 in 17 games= 5.6

 

Runs per game with Nunez playing:

96 in 16 games= 6.0

 

Nunez did not play 7/25 (5 runs scored) and 7/26 (4 runs scored)

Devers did not play 8/9 (8 runs scored)

 

Both players have made a tremendous difference in our run scoring.

Devers 13 R + 13 RBI - 6 HR= 20 in 17 games

Nunez 10R + 13 RBI - 4 HR= 19 in 16 games

 

I'm not taking anything away from Devers here. Without him, we'd have lost a few more games, but Nunez has been huge as well.

 

Small sample size alert, but both have been worth at least a run per game played!

 

 

 

 

Beni came alive around the same time and has had a major impact as well. I attribted it mainly to his going back to pulling the ball which resulted in more power. It has been the Beni, Nunez and Devers show for a while and it is now time for others to come through. Mazybe last night was an indication of that with Bogaerts finally having a multi-hit night.

 

No mention was made of Beni's injury after being hit by a pitch. He was taken out of the game but maybe it was just precautionary.

[Emp9]

I think we should replace Moreland, Young, Holt and possibly Bogaerts. Will Bogey be worth what he will be asking?

 

We need to resign Nunez if possible and with Pedey possibly having ongoing injury issues a backup for him would be great. Dozier would be a great possibility if we can get him. The idea of spliting time at 2nd base and DH is also a good one. The question is whether Hanley can hold together as a 1st baseman for a whole season, given his shoulder issues. Paying a part timer $22 Million is a little hard to swallow. Lin could fill our utility infielder role but who do you suggest to replace Young? Bogey would be hard to replace.

 

Nunez would essentially take over for Holt (LF too). Dozier would split time between 2B and DH (one year remaining w/ Min helps towards a possible move. It's not likely, just conceivable). I plan on having Bogey here for next season, but I'd listen to offers if they exist. HanRam/Travis @1B.\ (if it doesn't work we make an in-season trade for a 1B). If we could still re-sign Young for half of what he's making to a one year I'd do it. Would Young take less money for next season?

[oldtimer]

Nunez would essentially take over for Holt (LF too). Dozier would split time between 2B and DH (one year remaining w/ Min helps towards a possible move. It's not likely, just conceivable). I plan on having Bogey here for next season, but I'd listen to offers if they exist. HanRam/Travis @1B.\ (if it doesn't work we make an in-season trade for a 1B). If we could still re-sign Young for half of what he's making to a one year I'd do it. Would Young take less money for next season?

 

Ryon Healy of the A's might help at 1st. Young guy with power and around a 260 hitter. He shold be good for 30+ homers at Fenway. A trade for him is conceivable.

[Nick]

You can bet that Borass will be seeking premium contract for Xander. He will produce documentation painting only positive profile of Xander.

 

Xander had nothing to do with our latest success. It's been our stellar starting pitching and bullpen along with Nunez, Devers and Beni.

 

I'm hesitant about a 10 year deal for Betts but that's something we need to do. But I doubt we can afford multiple long term deals.

 

If you are going to spend money, I'd rather do it for premium talent such as Stanton and Votto. Otherwise construct a team full of Nunez.

 

BTW, I will puke if Holt is our 4th OF. He sucks. Non athletic little dude. Epitome of mediocre.

[Emp9]

You can bet that Borass will be seeking premium contract for Xander. He will produce documentation painting only positive profile of Xander.

 

Xander had nothing to do with our latest success. It's been our stellar starting pitching and bullpen along with Nunez, Devers and Beni.

 

I'm hesitant about a 10 year deal for Betts but that's something we need to do. But I doubt we can afford multiple long term deals.

 

If you are going to spend money, I'd rather do it for premium talent such as Stanton and Votto. Otherwise construct a team full of Nunez.

 

BTW, I will puke if Holt is our 4th OF. He sucks. Non athletic little dude. Epitome of mediocre.

 

If this season is Betts' floor, can we sign him to a 12 year deal? I'm not really joking on this.

[moonslav59]

If this season is Betts' floor, can we sign him to a 12 year deal? I'm not really joking on this.

 

Agree

[Kimmi]

If this season is Betts' floor, can we sign him to a 12 year deal? I'm not really joking on this.

 

Well, if we knew that this season would be Betts' floor for the entire contract, then most certainly. But of course we have no way of knowing that, and therein lies the rub with long term contracts.

[Nick]

Well, if we knew that this season would be Betts' floor for the entire contract, then most certainly. But of course we have no way of knowing that, and therein lies the rub with long term contracts.

 

Best value ever has to David Ortiz. And he went out on top. He's very rare.

 

There will always be ANOTHER great player. Maybe THAT's DEVERS. Can we sign him to a 20 year deal? Buy out his 6 years of team control plus 14.

 

We can't make the mistake of Pablo Sandoval. We have to live with two more years of this.

[moonslav59]

Signing Devers to a 6 or 7 years deal right now would make sense.

 

It's a bit of a dice roll, but IMO, this kid is the real deal.

[Kimmi]

Best value ever has to David Ortiz. And he went out on top. He's very rare.

 

There will always be ANOTHER great player. Maybe THAT's DEVERS. Can we sign him to a 20 year deal? Buy out his 6 years of team control plus 14.

 

We can't make the mistake of Pablo Sandoval. We have to live with two more years of this.

 

History has shown us over and over and over again that these types of deals are likely not going to work out. Even if they work out great at the front end, $30 million for 3 more years is a lot to eat at the back end. No owner wants to make a habit out of eating contracts like Pablo's.