A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Our pitching saved us this year. Look it up.

 

Yes, and defense.

 

Team WAR Rankings

 

1st in fielding

4th in pitching

10th in base running

22nd in batting

 

5th overall.

 

[mvp 78]

Our pitching saved us this year. Look it up.

 

9th most runs scored. Hits, batting average, OBP, SB are all top 10. Only issue is they didn't hit for power. 1st in defensive runs saved.

[moonslav59]

9th most runs scored. Hits, batting average, OBP, SB are all top 10. Only issue is they didn't hit for power. 1st in defensive runs saved.

 

Yes, ultimately, runs scored is the proper measurement of overall offensive ranking.

 

We actually finished 10th in runs scored.

 

We finished 5th in runs allowed.

 

That's not bad when you consider that our top 8 returning players by 2016 PAs declined- many by over 100 points in OPS and we lost Price, Wright, Smith and Ross for most of the season and Thornburg for all of it.

[S5Dewey]

Those who have been reading what I've been saying for years know that I've always been a big proponent of defense, thinking that defense (and pitching) wins championships. I still believe that but I also believe that this team needs more balance. I appreciate that the team has the best fielding WAR in baseball but IMO that's somewhat skewed by the outstanding outfield play. I expect that to get even better when Beni gets more experience. Frankly, the only infielder we currently have who is 'that good' is Pedey and his style of play is starting to catch up with him.

 

This team has gotten enough hits to win 93 games in one of the toughest divisions in baseball so the number of hits isn't the problem. The problem is the number of BIG hits. That balance I spoke of has to come from more power and I don't want to sacrifice our outfield defense to get it.That leaves the infield.

 

3B - I'm willing to let Devers stay at 3B and experience his growing pains there UNLESS we can get a Donaldson-type player, and them move Devers to 1B.

 

SS- Bogaerts was kept over Iggy because XBo was supposed to be the better hitter. He still is the better hitter, but being a better hitter than Iggy is a pretty low bar and XBo's mediocre offense doesn't make up for his medicore defense. I could see Bogearts being traded to upgrade either the offense OR the defense.

 

2B? - Pedey isn't going anyplace, at least not now. Getting enough value for him at this point to make any trade worthwhile is very problematic. And I still like his 'grit' and his defense. I'd be willing to keep him around but have a solid UIF (Lin? Marrero?) to spell him frequently late in the game.

 

DH/ 1B - This is where the team must make the upgrade, either by moving Devers to 1B or by finding a power-hitting 1B. Hanley isn't the answer to almost any question that involves making the team improve. Neither is Moreland or (as much as I hate to admit it because I like the guy) Sam Travis.

 

IMO if they can add power at a corner IF position AND at DH this team will be good enough to contend for a WSC in a series of short series against the best teams in baseball. Without those additions they'll continue to be good enough to contend/win the 162 game season where they can fatten their record against weaker teams but will struggle mightily in the playoffs.

 

I'm not throwing in the towel yet on 2017. Miracles happen. But IMO this is what the team has to do to be able to go deep into October in 2018.

[S5Dewey]

Those who have been reading what I've been saying for years know that I've always been a big proponent of defense, thinking that defense (and pitching) wins championships. I still believe that but I also believe that this team needs more balance. I appreciate that the team has the best fielding WAR in baseball but IMO that's somewhat skewed by the outstanding outfield play. I expect that to get even better when Beni gets more experience. Frankly, the only infielder we currently have who is 'that good' is Pedey and his style of play is starting to catch up with him.

 

This team has gotten enough hits to win 93 games in one of the toughest divisions in baseball so the number of hits isn't the problem. The problem is the number of BIG hits. That balance I spoke of has to come from more power and I don't want to sacrifice our outfield defense to get it.That leaves the infield.

 

3B - I'm willing to let Devers stay at 3B and experience his growing pains there UNLESS we can get a Donaldson-type player, and them move Devers to 1B.

 

SS- Bogaerts was kept over Iggy because XBo was supposed to be the better hitter. He still is the better hitter, but being a better hitter than Iggy is a pretty low bar and XBo's mediocre offense doesn't make up for his medicore defense. I could see Bogearts being traded to upgrade either the offense OR the defense.

 

2B? - Pedey isn't going anyplace, at least not now. Getting enough value for him at this point to make any trade worthwhile is very problematic. And I still like his 'grit' and his defense. I'd be willing to keep him around but have a solid UIF (Lin? Marrero?) to spell him frequently late in the game.

 

DH/ 1B - This is where the team must make the upgrade, either by moving Devers to 1B or by finding a power-hitting 1B. Hanley isn't the answer to almost any question that involves making the team improve. Neither is Moreland or (as much as I hate to admit it because I like the guy) Sam Travis.

 

IMO if they can add power at a corner IF position AND at DH this team will be good enough to contend for a WSC in a series of short series against the best teams in baseball. Without those additions they'll continue to be good enough to contend/win the 162 game season where they can fatten their record against weaker teams but will struggle mightily in the playoffs.

 

I'm not throwing in the towel yet on 2017. Miracles happen. But IMO this is what the team has to do to be able to go deep into October in 2018.

[mvp 78]

The team is still young and are going to continue to have growing pains. Need to be a little more patient.

 

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want. It's a good foundation for a ball club, one that many other organizations are jealous of. Don't let one loss distract you from that.

[SoxnCycles]

Sucky game today.

 

I'm not giving up hope. For those who believe in clutch and choke, the 'Stros have a long history of coming up short when it counts.

 

I'm think we might want to think about limiting Sale's pitches next year. Maybe next game, he'll prove me wrong.

 

Our season has come down to Pom & Fister.

 

Who'da thunk dat?

 

Sale could have pitched much better and they still could have lost 3-2.

The Sox CAN'T hit.

[Bellhorn04]

The team is still young and are going to continue to have growing pains. Need to be a little more patient.

 

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want. It's a good foundation for a ball club, one that many other organizations are jealous of. Don't let one loss distract you from that.

 

They can pay all which players?

[cp176]

Those who have been reading what I've been saying for years know that I've always been a big proponent of defense, thinking that defense (and pitching) wins championships. I still believe that but I also believe that this team needs more balance. I appreciate that the team has the best fielding WAR in baseball but IMO that's somewhat skewed by the outstanding outfield play. I expect that to get even better when Beni gets more experience. Frankly, the only infielder we currently have who is 'that good' is Pedey and his style of play is starting to catch up with him.

 

This team has gotten enough hits to win 93 games in one of the toughest divisions in baseball so the number of hits isn't the problem. The problem is the number of BIG hits. That balance I spoke of has to come from more power and I don't want to sacrifice our outfield defense to get it.That leaves the infield.

 

3B - I'm willing to let Devers stay at 3B and experience his growing pains there UNLESS we can get a Donaldson-type player, and them move Devers to 1B.

 

SS- Bogaerts was kept over Iggy because XBo was supposed to be the better hitter. He still is the better hitter, but being a better hitter than Iggy is a pretty low bar and XBo's mediocre offense doesn't make up for his medicore defense. I could see Bogearts being traded to upgrade either the offense OR the defense.

 

2B? - Pedey isn't going anyplace, at least not now. Getting enough value for him at this point to make any trade worthwhile is very problematic. And I still like his 'grit' and his defense. I'd be willing to keep him around but have a solid UIF (Lin? Marrero?) to spell him frequently late in the game.

 

DH/ 1B - This is where the team must make the upgrade, either by moving Devers to 1B or by finding a power-hitting 1B. Hanley isn't the answer to almost any question that involves making the team improve. Neither is Moreland or (as much as I hate to admit it because I like the guy) Sam Travis.

 

IMO if they can add power at a corner IF position AND at DH this team will be good enough to contend for a WSC in a series of short series against the best teams in baseball. Without those additions they'll continue to be good enough to contend/win the 162 game season where they can fatten their record against weaker teams but will struggle mightily in the playoffs.

 

I'm not throwing in the towel yet on 2017. Miracles happen. But IMO this is what the team has to do to be able to go deep into October in 2018.

 

This was a team that was supposed to hit (slightly but often) with an all hands on deck sort of approach. No real big run producers to really count on. Hanley's drop off has really hurt us greatly. 93 wins is 93 wins and that ain't bad. The pitching and defense got us here. Just a few moves necessary I think. You cannot count on Ramirez and Pedroia to have some type of youthful miraculous return to the old days. They are old these days. We need at least a couple of guys who at least look as though they can hit the ball over the fence. More balance!

[mvp 78]

They can pay all which players?

 

Anyone with a B in their name.

[devildavid]

Hanley needs to go. Maybe the same way Panda did, but maybe we can get some depth in a trade for him. If he can't be traded, just cut him.

 

Pedroia is a bit trickier. I don't see him fitting in as a bench player, but he can't stay healthy enough to be relied on as a starter. I just don't see a good end for him, sad to say. And he still has 4 more years on his contract.

[moonslav59]

I still think HRam can get healthy for next year and possibly repeat 2016 or better. I'm not betting on it by any means.

 

Unless we acquire 3 or more big bats, I don't see HRam taking a roster spot away from anyone who screams they deserve it.

 

We will not get anything for HRam with that contract, we might as well see how he looks next year before doing something that drastic. I'd like to see us sign JD Martinez and a one-year 1Bman (Duda? Morrison? _____???)

 

[moonslav59]

Those who have been reading what I've been saying for years know that I've always been a big proponent of defense, thinking that defense (and pitching) wins championships. I still believe that but I also believe that this team needs more balance. I appreciate that the team has the best fielding WAR in baseball but IMO that's somewhat skewed by the outstanding outfield play. I expect that to get even better when Beni gets more experience. Frankly, the only infielder we currently have who is 'that good' is Pedey and his style of play is starting to catch up with him.

 

This team has gotten enough hits to win 93 games in one of the toughest divisions in baseball so the number of hits isn't the problem. The problem is the number of BIG hits. That balance I spoke of has to come from more power and I don't want to sacrifice our outfield defense to get it.That leaves the infield.

 

3B - I'm willing to let Devers stay at 3B and experience his growing pains there UNLESS we can get a Donaldson-type player, and them move Devers to 1B.

 

SS- Bogaerts was kept over Iggy because XBo was supposed to be the better hitter. He still is the better hitter, but being a better hitter than Iggy is a pretty low bar and XBo's mediocre offense doesn't make up for his medicore defense. I could see Bogearts being traded to upgrade either the offense OR the defense.

 

2B? - Pedey isn't going anyplace, at least not now. Getting enough value for him at this point to make any trade worthwhile is very problematic. And I still like his 'grit' and his defense. I'd be willing to keep him around but have a solid UIF (Lin? Marrero?) to spell him frequently late in the game.

 

DH/ 1B - This is where the team must make the upgrade, either by moving Devers to 1B or by finding a power-hitting 1B. Hanley isn't the answer to almost any question that involves making the team improve. Neither is Moreland or (as much as I hate to admit it because I like the guy) Sam Travis.

 

IMO if they can add power at a corner IF position AND at DH this team will be good enough to contend for a WSC in a series of short series against the best teams in baseball. Without those additions they'll continue to be good enough to contend/win the 162 game season where they can fatten their record against weaker teams but will struggle mightily in the playoffs.

 

I'm not throwing in the towel yet on 2017. Miracles happen. But IMO this is what the team has to do to be able to go deep into October in 2018.

 

Well said.

 

Hopefully, our defense can get even better next year, some of our players improve on offense and a couple key additions will be enough to put us over the top.

 

(BTW, I have not given up on this year despite being an eye witness to the last two losses.

 

[Kimmi]

Our pitching saved us this year. Look it up.

 

What difference does it make if you win the division with pitching or you win it with offense?

 

Personally, I'd rather win it with great pitching and a mediocre offense.

 

93 wins is 93 wins.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here-in lies the problem with the Red Sox approach. Once you take the all-in approach, you either need to eat a "cliff" and rebuild or commit to throwing good money after bad. The Yankees did this for years, and while we still were good, it got increasingly more difficult and more expensive to stay competitive. The Yankees were able to do this because George didn't care about spending money. Well, George died, the Stein kids were more fiscally conservative and the Yankees had their "cliff" where they played exactly one playoff game over 4 seasons. Rewind to the end of 2015. The sox have now finished last for 2 consecutive years and have if not the best, one of the best farms in baseball. DD gets hired to "win now" and wrecks the farm yet improves the team. Eventually, you don't have the prospect capital to get cheaper talent via trades and you need to enter the FA realm to upgrade. If you hit and your deals are all magnificent, then you're set. If you don't hit on most of your deals, then you have to throw TONS of money to upgrade even just a little bit. This is where the sox are at. Your prospect capital is tapped. If you are to upgrade this offseason, you're going to have to pay a premium to a FA or you'll have to take back bad money for a non FA prime talent. DD hit on a few, but unfortunately for you guys, he didn't hit when it came to the offense. Now, you're left to rebuild a terrible offense with money alone in an offseason where premier offensive talent is light

[Kimmi]

The team is still young and are going to continue to have growing pains. Need to be a little more patient.

 

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want. It's a good foundation for a ball club, one that many other organizations are jealous of. Don't let one loss distract you from that.

 

I am impressed by this post. It sounds like something I would say.

 

Except I would have added the part about the cliff.

[Nick]

What difference does it make if you win the division with pitching or you win it with offense?

 

Personally, I'd rather win it with great pitching and a mediocre offense.

 

93 wins is 93 wins.

 

You completely missed my point.

 

I was responding and basically agreeing to Moon's revelation of where our position players rank in terms of WAR. Betts was the only Sox to finish in the top 10, as a RF. DH, 1B and 3B positions ranked near bottom in mlb.

 

Then MVP butts in says we won 93 games.

 

I pointed out it was mainly due to pitching and defense. "Look it up"

 

Discussion was about how pathetic our position players did in comparison to others.

[moonslav59]

Also need to realize that the Sox CAN pay all these players to stay if they want.

 

$31M Price through '22

$22M HRam through '19

$21M Porcello through '19

$19M Pablo through '19

$14M Pedey through '21

$12M Castillo through '19

 

Assuming you don't mean Pablo, HRam, Porcello & Castillo, we have

$45M in Price in Pedey for forever and a day.

 

So, we extend...

 

After 2018 (estimates)

$30M+ Sale

$18M+ Pomeranz

$18M+ Kimbrel

??? J Kelly

??? R Ross

 

After 2019

$18M+ Bogey

??? Thornburg

??? B Holt

 

After 2020

$25M+ Betts

$15M+ JBJ

??? Vazquez

??? Smith

??? Wright

 

My head is spinning trying to add all this up!

??? Leon

 

 

[moonslav59]

You completely missed my point.

 

I was responding and basically agreeing to Moon's revelation of where our position players rank in terms of WAR. Betts was the only Sox to finish in the top 10, as a RF. DH, 1B and 3B positions ranked near bottom in mlb.

 

Then MVP butts in says we won 93 games.

 

I pointed out it was mainly due to pitching and defense. "Look it up"

 

Discussion was about how pathetic our position players did in comparison to others.

 

Yes, and clearly our best chance to improve could come from improving the worst of our positions.

 

Devers offers us hope at 3B, although his defense has a long way to go. Luckily, he doesn't have to do all that great to improve on what we had there this year on D.

 

1B and DH offer our best area to improve. Those are usually the easiest positions to upgrade without spending too much, but this year's FA class is weak on 1Bman. I'd love to see us seriously upgrade both. We might also need to get someone who can cover for Pedey, if needed.

 

I think we will not deal with significant pitching upgrades this winter.

 

[Northern Star]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

[fxkatt]

Well 73 million come off the books in '19. Perhaps only then will we have some real options in terms of truly improving the team. We sure will be lighter if nothing else. Bad contracts have a way of weighing a team down no matter how rich it is. And at least at this very moment, the team seems weighed down in big and cumbersome contracts.

[moonslav59]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

 

Hopefully his shoulder(s) will improve. Maybe he can play some 1B.

 

I think the idea might be to eat the money and platoon him at 1B/DH...maybe with Duda at 1B with JD Martinez brought in to DH.

 

The problem is, what if JD becomes the next HRam.

 

Is there another easier position to improve besides 1B then DH?

 

Edited October 7, 2017 by moonslav59

[fxkatt]

All this talk of improving DH - how are we offloading Hanley, because there's nowhere else to play him.

 

Impossible to trade him, I think. So, for personal me, I see no real success until 2020. But I hope I'm wrong.

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on how much Henry is willing to spend this winter with the luxury tax reset and all.

 

If he allows DD to sign JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. We could squeeze HRam out of his vesting option for 2019 and greatly improve our chances not just for 2018 but beyond as well-- assuming they don't flop.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Martinez DH/1B

5. Duda-Nunez 1B/DH

6. Devers-Nunez 3B

7. Pedey-Nunez 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, (Nunez), HRam, Hernandez

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, ERod, Porcello, Wright

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Workman, Hembree

 

AAA:

Holt (?), Travis, Lin, Marrero, Barfield, Castillo, Mars

Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks, Haley, Elias, Owens

Maddox, Scott, Ross, Taylor, Martin, Buttrey, Cosart

 

[moonslav59]

Would starting a new thread titled "A Realistic View at 2018" now, give the appearance I'm giving up on 2017?

 

Cause I'm not.

[moonslav59]

Interesting article...

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/drellich-red-sox-luxury-tax-approach-looks-bad-paltry-offense

 

Some flaws...

 

He speaks of our base running as being "frightening" and that it didn't matter since we sucked at getting on base. Wrong and wrong.

 

We finished 11th in OBP at .329, which was just .010 from being tied for second.

 

Our base running, despite all the bonehead plays, which is maybe what he meant as "frightening", we top tier in MLB.

 

 

 

[devildavid]

Interesting article...

 

http://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/drellich-red-sox-luxury-tax-approach-looks-bad-paltry-offense

 

Some flaws...

 

He speaks of our base running as being "frightening" and that it didn't matter since we sucked at getting on base. Wrong and wrong.

 

We finished 11th in OBP at .329, which was just .010 from being tied for second.

 

Our base running, despite all the bonehead plays, which is maybe what he meant as "frightening", we top tier in MLB.

 

 

 

 

I think Farrell's base running philosophy hurts the scoring potential of this team.

[oldtimer]

A lot depends on how much Henry is willing to spend this winter with the luxury tax reset and all.

 

If he allows DD to sign JD Martinez, Duda and Nunez. We could squeeze HRam out of his vesting option for 2019 and greatly improve our chances not just for 2018 but beyond as well-- assuming they don't flop.

 

1. Bogey SS

2. Betts RF

3. Beni LF

4. Martinez DH/1B

5. Duda-Nunez 1B/DH

6. Devers-Nunez 3B

7. Pedey-Nunez 2B

8. JBJ CF

9. Vaz C

 

Bench: Leon, (Nunez), HRam, Hernandez

 

SP: Sale, Price, Pom, ERod, Porcello, Wright

RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Workman, Hembree

 

AAA:

Holt (?), Travis, Lin, Marrero, Barfield, Castillo, Mars

Johnson, Velazquez, Beeks, Haley, Elias, Owens

Maddox, Scott, Ross, Taylor, Martin, Buttrey, Cosart

 

 

With the exception of Devers, the younger players on our team are in the second round of playoffs and are not doing well offensively. Certainly not well enough to beat the top contenders in the American League. One can dispute that, but we are seeing this by the results of our playoff series. I have asked why before and I still think it is a key question, since it will have a bearing on what should be done for next season. Is it that our players not only don't have power but also are just not that good when compared to the playoff teams rosters? Is it that the players are not getting the best coaching or that they don't really listen? Or is that the tone set in the clubhouse isn't positive enough to stimulate these guys to do better? Devers is a special case since he is raw and has power but seems to have reverted and is currently lacking plate discipline. It probably is a combination of all of those things plus the financial limitations this year prevented the kind of action that would have moved us closer to parity.

 

Personally, I think DD will be attempting to add a power bat or two to the lineup, but I also think he will consider trading some of our underperforming players, look for a managerial replacement and change hitting coaches.

[moonslav59]

I think Farrell's base running philosophy hurts the scoring potential of this team.

 

We were a plus on overall base running this year, according to the numbers. I liked the "aggressive" philosophy, but I did feel like we had more than our fair share of bonehead mistakes. I'm sure making bonehead mistakes was not part of JF's philosophy, and I have been careful to separate slightly over aggressive decisions from blunders, but I do feel JF could have had a better influence on lessening the lack of focus mistakes.

 

Note: Fangraphs ranks us 10th on base running at +5.1.

[moonslav59]

With the exception of Devers, the younger players on our team are in the second round of playoffs and are not doing well offensively. Certainly not well enough to beat the top contenders in the American League. One can dispute that, but we are seeing this by the results of our playoff series. I have asked why before and I still think it is a key question, since it will have a bearing on what should be done for next season. Is it that our players not only don't have power but also are just not that good when compared to the playoff teams rosters? Is it that the players are not getting the best coaching or that they don't really listen? Or is that the tone set in the clubhouse isn't positive enough to stimulate these guys to do better? Devers is a special case since he is raw and has power but seems to have reverted and is currently lacking plate discipline. It probably is a combination of all of those things plus the financial limitations this year prevented the kind of action that would have moved us closer to parity.

 

Personally, I think DD will be attempting to add a power bat or two to the lineup, but I also think he will consider trading some of our underperforming players, look for a managerial replacement and change hitting coaches.

 

Since all 8 of our top 8 returning players by 2016 PAs declined this year- most by over 85 points, it's hard to choose which one or two to trade. Trading would also cause another hole to fill via another trade or signing.

 

Our signings have not worked out too well, so it's hard to feel very confident in that method of fixing our higher need areas. There's a significant chance we trade the wrong guy or two, if that's the road we choose.

 

Again, the major declines...

 

The Young...

 

JBJ .832> .835> .726 (-109)

 

Beni .835> .776 (-59)

 

Bogey .776> .802> .746 (-56)

 

 

 

The middle aged...

 

Leon .439> .845> .644 (-201)

 

Holt .727> .705> .548 (-157)

 

Young .773 (NYY)> .850> .709 (-141)

 

HRam .717> .866> .750 (-116)

 

Pedey .797> .825> .760 (-65)

 

 

I'm sorry, but I just can't believe that all these guys are worse than I thought they were. All but HRam and Leon did worse in 2017 that 2015, too!

 

 

Vazquez was our number 11 guy in PAs last year. We lost Papi and Shaw, so he is number 9 in returning players by PAs:

 

Vaz n/a> .585> .735 (+150)

 

 

So, who do you trade?

 

We can't trade HRam. Pedey will probably not be dealt with his injury history and multiple years under contract. Young and Moreland are FAs.

 

Bogey? Play Marco/Lin at SS?

 

JBJ? Play Beni in CF and sign a LF'er?

 

Leon? Won't get much back.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade any of our under performers, but selling low is not usually a winning strategy, and I don't see any prospects ready to step in for the player(s) we trade.