A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[moonslav59]

Hmmm.. A cheap shot! When did you sink to the level of everyone else here? LOL

 

I don't see it as being unreasonable to believe that one doesn't know what goes on in another's profession until they've been a part of it.

 

1) How does anyone know who has played the game, and who hasn't?

 

2) Does the higher level you played make you even more informed and intelligent on baseball matters? Is there a scale?

 

3) People who play the game might be more insightful in some ways or have a different perspective, but it doesn't mean they know more.

 

4) Throwing the fact you played the game in someone's face is what I consider "sinking to the level".

[moonslav59]

Meh. IMHO the alleged "plan" was to be able to make the playoffs every year in this 3-4 year window with the knowledge that making the PO's doesn't guarantee a WS Championship, but it certainly increases the chances!

 

This is year ONE of that 3-4 year window and they made the playoffs in spite of David Price being non-existent. Let's wait until that window is closed before we declare the plan a bust.

 

I know all the sayings about "ifs, ands and buts, but had Price been healthy and Porcello pitched like 2016, we'd be at worst, co-favorites.

 

I think the plan was to be at or very near favorites to win it all.

 

It's just my opinion, and since I only played baseball for over 20 years but never above high school and college intramural level, what do I know?

[jacksonianmarch]

Meh, relax gents. It’s just a game. Let’s enjoy the postseason. For the ALDS only, I’ll try to be a sox fan

[illinoisredsox]

Hmmm.. A cheap shot! When did you sink to the level of everyone else here? LOL

 

I don't see it as being unreasonable to believe that one doesn't know what goes on in another's profession until they've been a part of it.

 

Tell that to a lawyer.

[S5Dewey]

1) How does anyone know who has played the game, and who hasn't?

 

2) Does the higher level you played make you even more informed and intelligent on baseball matters? Is there a scale?

 

3) People who play the game might be more insightful in some ways or have a different perspective, but it doesn't mean they know more.

 

4) Throwing the fact you played the game in someone's face is what I consider "sinking to the level".

 

1. By reading what they've posted. If anyone chooses not to believe them, that's on the reader. If our criteria is "what we know" I'm not even sure you're not a Russian bot, trying to deflect Sox fans from the issues of the day.

 

2. Maybe. As in everything in life, some people who have participated in any activity are more knowledgeable about it than others are.

 

3. ...and that insight and perspective is valuable and shouldn't be dismissed just because it can't be statistically proven. It also doesn't mean they don't know more.

 

4. I hear you on that topic and it's why I was reluctant to offer it early in the debate. However, the fact that we have played is the basis of our knowledge so we have to be able to use the fact that we've played to establish credibility for our opinions. This entire debate is experience vs. statistics and if we're not "allowed" to bring our experience into the debate our credibility is nonexistent.

[Kimmi]

A realistic view of 2017. This year definitely has to be considered a success as we have repeated as division champs,

 

But does anybody else feel that anything short of a spot in the World Series is a bit of a let down?

 

Anything less than a World Series Championship would be a bit of a let down. That's not the same as saying that the season would be somewhat of a failure though.

[Kimmi]

You guys are sounding defeated already. Some seasons, making the playoffs is a surprise and something that really should be considered a success. The sox were built to win a title. If you don't make the WS, then this season was a waste. Your cliff is coming.

 

Oh stop Jacko. Just stop.

[moonslav59]

1. By reading what they've posted. If anyone chooses not to believe them, that's on the reader. If our criteria is "what we know" I'm not even sure you're not a Russian bot, trying to deflect Sox fans from the issues of the day.

 

2. Maybe. As in everything in life, some people who have participated in any activity are more knowledgeable about it than others are.

 

3. ...and that insight and perspective is valuable and shouldn't be dismissed just because it can't be statistically proven. It also doesn't mean they don't know more.

 

4. I hear you on that topic and it's why I was reluctant to offer it early in the debate. However, the fact that we have played is the basis of our knowledge so we have to be able to use the fact that we've played to establish credibility for our opinions. This entire debate is experience vs. statistics and if we're not "allowed" to bring our experience into the debate our credibility is nonexistent.

 

I didn't dismiss anyone's insight or perspective.

 

I played a lot of baseball in my life. I never played on the Notre Dame team, but I tried out. I played in the intramural league, which had many all state players. I could not hit well enough to make the team, but I was a good fielder and base runner. A close friend was a great pitcher who got booted off the team for mouthing off at a coach, he thought was another player.

 

I also was the starting WR (freshman year) and QB (senior year) on two championship intramural football teams (we played with pads), and started on our hall's Basketball team that won my freshman year. (I scored one basket shy of half my team's points in the championship game, and yes, I would not call myself "clutch".)

 

I remember o that basketball championship team, we had a set rotation of our players. When it came to be my turn to sit, the guy who was supposed to come in said, "No f***ing way am I going in for you; your playing out of your mind!" I don't consider myself anymore knowledgeable about basketball or football just because I was good and played against some of the best (Orlando Woolridge, Tracy Jackson, Jerome Heavens and more). I actually think I know more about baseball- the game I basically sucked at when competing at a high level.

 

I know I come off as a know it all at times and a stat geek, but really, I'm rather a humble guy with some OCD issues related to numbers. I don't try to appear to be smarter than anyone else, and I don't think of myself that way. Playing baseball was always my highest love. I dreamed of it for much of my early childhood. I was better at other sports and loved them too, but not like the greatest game ever invented: BASEBALL!

 

I value the opinions of just about everyone here and respect the insights of those who played at much higher levels than I ever did or could even dream of. It's the condescension that tweaks me a bit.

 

[moonslav59]

Here's the final regular season Sox positional WAR rankings...

 

4th SP 17.0 (4th 2nd half: 7.3)

4th RP 6.9 (5th in 2nd half: 3.4)

 

4th RF 5.2

11th SS 3.1

16th 2B 2.3

17th C 1.8

18th LF 1.9

21st CF 2.2

11th out of 15 DH -0.7

24th 1B 0.9

28th 3B 0.5

 

2nd Half

6th RF 1.7

14th C 1.2

18th 2B 0.7

18th LF 0.5

20th SS 0.8

21st 3B 0.7

12th out 15 DH -0.9

25th 1B 0.0

28th CF -0.2

 

[S5Dewey]

 

I value the opinions of just about everyone here and respect the insights of those who played at much higher levels than I ever did or could even dream of. It's the condescension that tweaks me a bit.

 

Congratulations on a fine career.

 

That condescension works both ways, and I'm not addressing that toward you. I've repeatedly called for a truce on this topic with both sides respecting the views of the other but that respect isn't something that seems to be forthcoming.

 

This whole discussion got dug up again when a certain poster said the pitchers and the team had 'turned it up' after repeatedly preaching to me that there is no statistical evidence that a player can 'turn it up'. And I called them on it. Either believe in turning it up or not, but if you don't believe it can happen don't act like it just happened. Hypocrisy at it's finest.

[a700hitter]

Back to Back Division Titles and there is so much hand-wringing. This is a pretty great thing that none of us have ever seen before. Anyone who is unhappy about this or concerned about the future obviously cannot enjoy good fortune or live in and enjoy the moment. Different strokes, but I prefer to stay away from compulsive negativity.

[Spudboy]

Back to Back Division Titles and there is so much hand-wringing. This is a pretty great thing that none of us have ever seen before. Anyone who is unhappy about this or concerned about the future obviously cannot enjoy good fortune or live in and enjoy the moment. Different strokes, but I prefer to stay away from compulsive negativity.

 

After seeing the Sox have mediocre results for many of the 51 years I have watched them, consecutive division tittles are nice. But then I do not suffer the delusion that this team is glory bound each year. I expect the Sox to play competitive baseball each year because that is what a fairly well team should do when they spend so much money and frankly winning more than not winning is the objective of the game if one is honest.

 

I don't see anything magic happening this year and I don't really have enough information about the future teams so I don't waste my time wringing my hands about that stuff.

 

Whatever team they put out there next year and in years beyond I will follow loyally because they are my team. I have my opinions about what

 

they should do each year but I am no expert and I have no control so so f*** it.

 

The dweebs that lament all this cliff stuff are worry warts and have been missing the real joy of the game in my opinion.

Edited October 5, 2017 by Spudboy

[moonslav59]

Congratulations on a fine career.

 

That condescension works both ways, and I'm not addressing that toward you. I've repeatedly called for a truce on this topic with both sides respecting the views of the other but that respect isn't something that seems to be forthcoming.

 

This whole discussion got dug up again when a certain poster said the pitchers and the team had 'turned it up' after repeatedly preaching to me that there is no statistical evidence that a player can 'turn it up'. And I called them on it. Either believe in turning it up or not, but if you don't believe it can happen don't act like it just happened. Hypocrisy at it's finest.

 

Fair points. I didn't mean to imply it just happened for the first time, and it's all one-sided.

[moonslav59]

The dweebs that lament all this cliff stuff are worry warts and have been missing the real joy of the game in my opinion.

 

I enjoy "the game" as much as anyone in the whole world... probably more than any human should.

[Nick]

Here's the final regular season Sox positional WAR rankings...

 

4th SP 17.0 (4th 2nd half: 7.3)

4th RP 6.9 (5th in 2nd half: 3.4)

 

4th RF 5.2

11th SS 3.1

16th 2B 2.3

17th C 1.8

18th LF 1.9

21st CF 2.2

11th out of 15 DH -0.7

24th 1B 0.9

28th 3B 0.5

 

2nd Half

6th RF 1.7

14th C 1.2

18th 2B 0.7

18th LF 0.5

20th SS 0.8

21st 3B 0.7

12th out 15 DH -0.9

25th 1B 0.0

28th CF -0.2

 

 

I'd be curious to see where our 3B ranking would be if we projected Dever's production for 162 games. Basically we failed miserably at what I would call 3 power positions, DH, 1B and 3B.

 

One top 10 out of 9 'positions' is horrendous.

 

Upcoming cliff? HELL, LOOKS LIKE OUR POSITIONS PLAYERS ARE ALREADY DOWN IN GRAND CANYON RIGHT NOW. AND WE'RE WORRIED THAT WE MAY LOSE THESE FREAKING LOSERS?

[moonslav59]

I'd be curious to see where our 3B ranking would be if we projected Dever's production for 162 games. Basically we failed miserably at what I would call 3 power positions, DH, 1B and 3B.

 

One top 10 out of 9 'positions' is horrendous.

 

Upcoming cliff? HELL, LOOKS LIKE OUR POSITIONS PLAYERS ARE ALREADY DOWN IN GRAND CANYON RIGHT NOW. AND WE'RE WORRIED THAT WE MAY LOSE THESE FREAKING LOSERS?

 

I did provide the 2nd half numbers specifically to see how Devers improved our 3B ranking. It wasn't by as much as I expected, due largely to his defensive struggles out of the gate.

 

7 out of 9 positional rankings below average is worse than horrendous.

[greenwell]

I did provide the 2nd half numbers specifically to see how Devers improved our 3B ranking. It wasn't by as much as I expected, due largely to his defensive struggles out of the gate.

 

7 out of 9 positional rankings below average is worse than horrendous.

 

Those numbers do look bad. Do you know where the sox rank in total WAR?

[moonslav59]

Those numbers do look bad. Do you know where the sox rank in total WAR?

 

5th

58.3 LAD

56.3 CLE

54.7 HOU

52.1 WSH

51.5 BOS

51.5 Cubs

50.2 NYY

 

39.5 AZ

38.5 COL

37.8 STL

35.0 MN

 

It seems strange that with 7 out of our 9 positions ranked below #15, that our everyday players rank 15th at +17.8. That's in large part to our defense:

 

1st in fielding

10th in base running

22nd in batting

 

We ranked 4th in overall pitching WAR at 23.9.

 

[greenwell]

5th

58.3 LAD

56.3 CLE

54.7 HOU

52.1 WSH

51.5 BOS

51.5 Cubs

50.2 NYY

 

39.5 AZ

38.5 COL

37.8 STL

35.0 MN

 

It seems strange that with 7 out of our 9 positions ranked below #15, that our everyday players rank 15th at +17.8. That's in large part to our defense:

 

1st in fielding

10th in base running

22nd in batting

 

We ranked 4th in overall pitching WAR at 23.9.

 

 

Not that I'm doubting your numbers, you are the stats guru, but it seems weird that their highest position player is 5th, yet they are 5th overall. I know it's mathematically possible, just unlikely

[moonslav59]

Not that I'm doubting your numbers, you are the stats guru, but it seems weird that their highest position player is 5th, yet they are 5th overall. I know it's mathematically possible, just unlikely

 

5th counting pitching.

 

We are 15th in everyday player WAR and 4th in pitching.

[greenwell]

5th counting pitching.

 

We are 15th in everyday player WAR and 4th in pitching.

 

Gotcha, that makes more sense.

[moonslav59]

Sucky game today.

 

I'm not giving up hope. For those who believe in clutch and choke, the 'Stros have a long history of coming up short when it counts.

 

I'm think we might want to think about limiting Sale's pitches next year. Maybe next game, he'll prove me wrong.

 

Our season has come down to Pom & Fister.

 

Who'da thunk dat?

[Northern Star]

Sucky game today.

 

I'm not giving up hope. For those who believe in clutch and choke, the 'Stros have a long history of coming up short when it counts.

 

I'm think we might want to think about limiting Sale's pitches next year. Maybe next game, he'll prove me wrong.

 

Our season has come down to Pom & Fister.

 

Who'da thunk dat?

 

only a masochist.

[moonslav59]

Makes you wonder, if even acquiring JD Martinez and Votto would be enough for 2018.

 

[Nick]

Makes you wonder, if even acquiring JD Martinez and Votto would be enough for 2018.

 

 

But it does point out the fact that our current position players are OVERVALUED by Sox fans. I therefore snicker when we do our daily 'sky is falling' routine with so called pending cliff. They suck. With our resources, it can't really get that much worse.

 

Go BIG or Go Home. Go get Stanton AND Votto.

[mvp 78]

But it does point out the fact that our current position players are OVERVALUED by Sox fans. I therefore snicker when we do our daily 'sky is falling' routine with so called pending cliff. They suck. With our resources, it can't really get that much worse.

 

Go BIG or Go Home. Go get Stanton AND Votto.

 

They won 93 games. How sucky can they possibly be?

[mvp 78]

Makes you wonder, if even acquiring JD Martinez and Votto would be enough for 2018.

 

 

Are you kidding me right now?

[moonslav59]

Are you kidding me right now?

 

I went to the game. I was pissed and down and out.

 

Forgive me.

 

I still have a lot of confidence in this team and think we will claw back and win this series.

 

(I do think we need a big bat(s) for next year to be a very top contender.)

[Nick]

They won 93 games. How sucky can they possibly be?

 

Our pitching saved us this year. Look it up.

[moonslav59]

But it does point out the fact that our current position players are OVERVALUED by Sox fans. I therefore snicker when we do our daily 'sky is falling' routine with so called pending cliff. They suck. With our resources, it can't really get that much worse.

 

Go BIG or Go Home. Go get Stanton AND Votto.

 

I've always thought I have been close to as realistic as any Sox fan can be. I know I have some "homer" in me, but I have recently been wondering, if I did over-value just about all our players this spring.

 

I thought Chris Sale was going to lead us to the promise land. I wasn't aware of apparent end of season endurance issues with him.

 

I'm still optimistic about this year, despite my down moment yesterday, and I'm hopeful next year will be even better as I believe Henry will open up his wallet to fix the missing clean-up hitter issue.