A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[oldtimer]

Since all 8 of our top 8 returning players by 2016 PAs declined this year- most by over 85 points, it's hard to choose which one or two to trade. Trading would also cause another hole to fill via another trade or signing.

 

Our signings have not worked out too well, so it's hard to feel very confident in that method of fixing our higher need areas. There's a significant chance we trade the wrong guy or two, if that's the road we choose.

 

Again, the major declines...

 

The Young...

 

JBJ .832> .835> .726 (-109)

 

Beni .835> .776 (-59)

 

Bogey .776> .802> .746 (-56)

 

 

 

The middle aged...

 

Leon .439> .845> .644 (-201)

 

Holt .727> .705> .548 (-157)

 

Young .773 (NYY)> .850> .709 (-141)

 

HRam .717> .866> .750 (-116)

 

Pedey .797> .825> .760 (-65)

 

 

I'm sorry, but I just can't believe that all these guys are worse than I thought they were. All but HRam and Leon did worse in 2017 that 2015, too!

 

 

Vazquez was our number 11 guy in PAs last year. We lost Papi and Shaw, so he is number 9 in returning players by PAs:

 

Vaz n/a> .585> .735 (+150)

 

 

So, who do you trade?

 

We can't trade HRam. Pedey will probably not be dealt with his injury history and multiple years under contract. Young and Moreland are FAs.

 

Bogey? Play Marco/Lin at SS?

 

JBJ? Play Beni in CF and sign a LF'er?

 

Leon? Won't get much back.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't trade any of our under performers, but selling low is not usually a winning strategy, and I don't see any prospects ready to step in for the player(s) we trade.

 

If I was to choose one to trade, it would be JBJ. He is of prime age and is an excellent defender so would have some trade value. I'm thinking we could get another solid CF type that would have a more consistent bat. I think what we see with JBJ is what we get and I think he is just an erratic and weak hitter. I do think a new hitting coach might wake up some of the others. Under no circumstances would I trade Betts. Bogey is still viable and might be helped by a different hitting coach and Beni is young, has a pretty swing and I think can perform much better, again with good coaching. Leon I might trade if we could get a decent replacement. I don't expect improvement from him going forward. At 235 pounds on a 5'11" frame, when might he start to break down? Devers I would consider moving hm to 1st to open space for a 3rd base FA. Devers needs hitting coaching as well. That is a popular refrain from me for this team. Teams like Houston and Cleveland have stars but they also seem to get more out of their second line players.

[moonslav59]

If I was to choose one to trade, it would be JBJ. He is of prime age and is an excellent defender so would have some trade value. I'm thinking we could get another solid CF type that would have a more consistent bat. I think what we see with JBJ is what we get and I think he is just an erratic and weak hitter. I do think a new hitting coach might wake up some of the others. Under no circumstances would I trade Betts. Bogey is still viable and might be helped by a different hitting coach and Beni is young, has a pretty swing and I think can perform much better, again with good coaching. Leon I might trade if we could get a decent replacement. I don't expect improvement from him going forward. At 235 pounds on a 5'11" frame, when might he start to break down? Devers I would consider moving hm to 1st to open space for a 3rd base FA. Devers needs hitting coaching as well. That is a popular refrain from me for this team. Teams like Houston and Cleveland have stars but they also seem to get more out of their second line players.

 

So, trade JBJ for a better CF'er?

 

1) Who?

2) Who will trade us a better CF'er for JBJ?

2A) Who could we tradw with JBJ to get a better CF? And, who is that CF'er?

[Spudboy]

So, trade JBJ for a better CF'er?

 

1) Who?

2) Who will trade us a better CF'er for JBJ?

2A) Who could we tradw with JBJ to get a better CF? And, who is that CF'er?

 

JBJ for a power hitting RF and move Betts to CF.

 

Be creative.

[moonslav59]

JBJ for a power hitting RF and move Betts to CF.

 

Be creative.

 

Name someone.

[oldtimer]

Name someone.

 

How about Andrew Mcutchen. He is 30 and a good outfielder who can run and has some pop. Twenty Eight home runs this year and an OPS far in excess of what JBJ has produced.

[moonslav59]

How about Andrew Mcutchen. He is 30 and a good outfielder who can run and has some pop. Twenty Eight home runs this year and an OPS far in excess of what JBJ has produced.

 

Better than the 2017 JBJ, but AM is on the down slope while JBJ should be on the up slope

[OH FOY]

AW will be 31 in 3 days. Has 1 year left on his contract.

I like Notin's idea of Abreu.

Edited October 7, 2017 by OH FOY!

[oldtimer]

Better than the 2017 JBJ, but AM is on the down slope while JBJ should be on the up slope

 

I don't see JBJ as on an upslope. I see him as continuing at the level he was at this year. Excellent defender but erratic hitter who disappears for long stretches of the season. Unless a different hitting coach could turn him around, I see not much beyond a less than stellar performance. This year he batted 9th, that ought to tell you something.

[OH FOY]

How many on this Roster is a bonafide Game Changing Superstar? Like a Lindor or a Harper? I got 1 Betts. I would listen to anyone on the others.

Didn't want Stanton before, but I changed my mind. Team needs a big bat threat. 2 would even be better.

Edited October 7, 2017 by OH FOY!

[Larry Cook]

Bradley is what he is and we have to accept that.

 

I do not think another hitting coach could change him,

 

In my mind, he is a very good defender with an excellent arm and tremendous reaction time on balls hit his way.

 

He is perfect in the nine hole of our lineup.

[Bellhorn04]

How many on this Roster is a bonafide Game Changing Superstar? Like a Lindor or a Harper? I got 1 Betts. I would listen to anyone on the others.

 

Betts is it. Devers may become one. Also Benintendi.

[OH FOY]

Like I said I would listen, the phone line would be open.

[Spudboy]

Name someone.

 

Stanton.

 

JBJ, ERod, two minor league pieces. Not sure how the numbers work but I would start there.

 

Go big or go home.

 

Your boy Bennie f***ed this team.

[Spudboy]

How about Andrew Mcutchen. He is 30 and a good outfielder who can run and has some pop. Twenty Eight home runs this year and an OPS far in excess of what JBJ has produced.

 

Boom. Worth looking at.

[Spudboy]

Better than the 2017 JBJ, but AM is on the down slope while JBJ should be on the up slope

 

Love JBJ but he will never hit as well as AM.

 

Up slope my ass.

[Spudboy]

How many on this Roster is a bonafide Game Changing Superstar? Like a Lindor or a Harper? I got 1 Betts. I would listen to anyone on the others.

Didn't want Stanton before, but I changed my mind. Team needs a big bat threat. 2 would even be better.

 

You make too much sense.

 

Please stop. You will bruise egos.

[moonslav59]

Love JBJ but he will never hit as well as AM.

 

Up slope my ass.

 

JBJ has been over .830 for two years before this. I doubt AM gets over 830 next year. I would not trade 3 cheap years of junior for 1 year of AM.

[cp176]

How many on this Roster is a bonafide Game Changing Superstar? Like a Lindor or a Harper? I got 1 Betts. I would listen to anyone on the others.

Didn't want Stanton before, but I changed my mind. Team needs a big bat threat. 2 would even be better.

 

The answer would be absolutely none! Betts i guess comes the closest but really? I don't think so. No legit big hitting superstars here.

[Northern Star]

How about Andrew Mcutchen. He is 30 and a good outfielder who can run and has some pop. Twenty Eight home runs this year and an OPS far in excess of what JBJ has produced.

 

Someone is going to give McCutcheon a silly contract. Let it not be us.

[harmony]

Someone is going to give McCutcheon a silly contract. Let it not be us.

The Pirates are expected to exercise the 2018 team option of $14.75 million on Andrew McCutchen:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/central-notes-brewers-tigers-mccutchen-kluber.html

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml

 

McCutchen is unlikely to land a long-term contract this offseason.

[Northern Star]

The Pirates are expected to exercise the 2018 team option of $14.75 million on Andrew McCutchen:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/central-notes-brewers-tigers-mccutchen-kluber.html

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml

 

McCutchen is unlikely to land a long-term contract this offseason.

 

Fair enough, but when he does hit FA someone will dish out more than they get back in performance. And let's see if 2018 mysteriously turns out to be his best season to date. Funny how that seems to happen with so many guys.

[devildavid]

We were a plus on overall base running this year, according to the numbers. I liked the "aggressive" philosophy, but I did feel like we had more than our fair share of bonehead mistakes. I'm sure making bonehead mistakes was not part of JF's philosophy, and I have been careful to separate slightly over aggressive decisions from blunders, but I do feel JF could have had a better influence on lessening the lack of focus mistakes.

 

Note: Fangraphs ranks us 10th on base running at +5.1.

 

What does that ranking mean in regard to scoring runs?

[devildavid]

The outfield is the strength of this team. I would not look to trade any of the young core. Look to the infield and aging/injured players. Cut Hanley loose. Keep the catcher combo we have. Pedroia is the toughest decision to face. He produces when relatively healthy, but he has trouble staying on the field.

[Kimmi]

What does that ranking mean in regard to scoring runs?

 

The Red Sox scored an additional 5.1 runs above the average MLB team due to their base running.

 

To break it down even more, 1.4 of the runs came from things like advancing an extra base, scoring on a sac fly, etc., 4.2 of the runs came from stealing bases, and hitting in DPs cost the team 0.5 runs.

[Bellhorn04]

The outfield is the strength of this team. I would not look to trade any of the young core. Look to the infield and aging/injured players. Cut Hanley loose. Keep the catcher combo we have. Pedroia is the toughest decision to face. He produces when relatively healthy, but he has trouble staying on the field.

 

The big problem is we're very restricted financially. 'Cut Hanley loose' sounds nice, but we're paying him 22 million next year, so getting some value out of him would be better. And we're paying Pedey for several more years, so all you can do is cross your fingers for health.

[Kimmi]

The big problem is we're very restricted financially. 'Cut Hanley loose' sounds nice, but we're paying him 22 million next year, so getting some value out of him would be better. And we're paying Pedey for several more years, so all you can do is cross your fingers for health.

 

I posted in another thread that it is very unrealistic to expect to be able to cut players loose when they are no longer playing up to their contract value, especially if there are still multiple years remaining on the contract. Cutting Pablo loose was no small task. I would not expect that to become the norm.

 

That said, with the luxury tax being reset, I think the team has more financial flexibility going into this offseason.

[devildavid]

The big problem is we're very restricted financially. 'Cut Hanley loose' sounds nice, but we're paying him 22 million next year, so getting some value out of him would be better. And we're paying Pedey for several more years, so all you can do is cross your fingers for health.

 

I understand that, but carrying Hanley really hampers improving the team. The Sox organization will not be put out of business financially by cutting Hanley. Take the hit and move on. Hanley adds no value to the team . Pedroia's situation is much more difficult. There is still good value left in him unless his health has crossed the point of no return , which I believe that Hanley's has.

[devildavid]

The Red Sox scored an additional 5.1 runs above the average MLB team due to their base running.

 

To break it down even more, 1.4 of the runs came from things like advancing an extra base, scoring on a sac fly, etc., 4.2 of the runs came from stealing bases, and hitting in DPs cost the team 0.5 runs.

 

So from that my guess is the team must have had a high stolen base success rate. Is there anything calculated about potential runs lost by running into outs on the bases?

[OH FOY]

Cant cut Hanley because of his contract. Sox have to control his PA's. You cut him Sox still obligated to the wording of Contract, right? Which says he needs 1050 PA's, in 17 and 18 to vest for 19. Does it say it only has to be on the Sox? That's the question, I like to know.

If not and I was a team I'd grab him in a heartbeat, pay him Vet Minimum, make sure he gets his PA's, let Sox pay his vesting year, and then only pay his Vet Minimum, for final year.

This is a scenario that could happen, yes?

[moonslav59]

The answer would be absolutely none! Betts i guess comes the closest but really? I don't think so. No legit big hitting superstars here.

 

If we are talking the 2017 Betts, I agree.

 

The 2016 Betts only had 16 players hit for a better OPS and 25 with more HRs. He also "changes the game" with excellent defense and very good base running.

 

He was 3rd in WAR last year. He certainly made a big difference in 2016.

 

Even with the "off year" in 2017, here are the WAR rankings for 2016-2017 combined:

 

16.1 Trout

15.1 Bryant

14.3 Altuve

13.3 Betts

13.1 Seager

12.6 Donaldson

12.1 Lindor

11.7 Votto

11.6 Rendon

11.3 Ramirez

11.0 Turner

11.0 Arenado

26th Stanton 8.7

30th Bogaerts 8.0

36th Cozart 7.5

39th Pedroia 7.3

40th JBJ 7.3

43rd Santana 6.7

50th Upton 6.3

57th Abreu 5.9

60th JD Martinez 5.5

67th E Nunez 4.9

104th McCutchen 4.3

116th Hosmer 4.0

122nd Morrison 3.8