A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[Northern Star]

I'm not happy with the choice.

 

He's better than Fister.

 

We may have to bring Price in early.

 

 

Like, second inning. Down 4-0.

[Northern Star]

Another Porcello lover. Man, I can’t think of a worse matchup. Porcello at the Fens vs these righty homerun hitters

 

"It's like ringing the dinner bell, for Christ's sakes."

[moonslav59]

It's no love fest for Porcello.

 

This looks pretty scary, too, don't you think?

 

Last 4 starts:

IP ER

5.1 3

5.1 3

2.0 5

4.0 6

 

Total

16.2 IP 17 ER (9.00+ ERA)

24 H 7 BB

 

Those were Fister's numbers. Should I claim you guys are on a Fister love fest?

 

FYI, Porcello's last 4 starts:

22 IP 11 ERs (4.50 ERA)

21 H 9 BB

 

Not great but better than Doug F's numbers.

 

Plus, the guy did win the Cy Young last year. I think there's a better chance he somehow comes up with a gem than Fister.

[moonslav59]

One game to go. We'll probably rest just about everyone.

 

It's hard to imagine us winning the division without Devers and Nunez joining the club mid season.

.892 Nunez (173 PAs)

.821 Devers (236 PAs)

 

Updated Sox OPS (300+ PAs):

.803 Betts

.776 Beni

.769 Moreland

.760 Pedey

.749 HRam

.746 Bogey

.737 Vaz

.729 JBJ

 

(160-299 PAs)

.713 Young

.644 Leon

.603 Marrero

.520 Holt

 

[moonslav59]

RBI Leaders

 

102 Betts

90 Beni

79 Moreland

63 JBJ

62 HRam

62 Pedey

Nobody else over 40

 

HR Leaders

24 Betts

23 HRam

22 Moreland

20 Beni

17 JBJ

10 Devers (+20 HRs on the farm)

 

XBHs

72 Betts

56 Moreland

48 Beni

48 Bogey

47 HRam

39 JBJ

26 Pedey

25 Vaz

23 Devers

 

 

[Spudboy]

The upcoming playoff series sort of reminds me of the 1960 world series between the Pirates and the Yankees. The Yanks pounded the Pirates when they won but lost the close ones and the Prates ended up winning the series. When the Sox have beaten the Stros they have won the close ones except for yesterday. The Stros when they win, do so by a wide margin. Pomerantz may not be as good as Sale but he did beat the Astros today. Fister pitched well enough to win yesterday but he didn't have any run support. Quite frankly I may be in the minority but he is my third starter for this series.

 

The Sox may be the underdogs but they do have the pitching to contend. I expect this to be an exciting series and this post season is setting up to be an outstanding one regardless of whether the Sox go all the way. I say Hooray for baseball. The rest of professional sports are just a poor second to the thrill of playoff baseball.

 

 

You need to be posting more.

 

It has been decreed.

[cp176]

I must admit much to my surprise Farrell has managed well this year, especially since the ASB.* He has taken a team with 6 leadoff hitters and no real power hitter anchoring the middle of the lineup and taken them to the division title.* One has to give him special credit for letting Butterfield design an effective running game that made for some exciting baseball when they could get men on base.* He has gotten the most out of a sometimes shaky rotation and developed a strong bullpen.* In essence one has to recognize that JF got the most out of his club.* Even if the Sox get eliminated in the Division series (let's face it this team isn't as talented or as well balanced as either the Astros or Guardians and will be the underdogs) I fully expect to see Farrell's team being aggressive and putting it all out there.

 

Interesting post! I think that this is a common sense outlook from the sidelines where we all are.

[Elktonnick]

You need to be posting more.

 

It has been decreed.

 

Thank you for the comments.

[moonslav59]

8 of our 8 top returning hitters by 2016 PAs declined. Six of them by over 94 points.

 

Our Cy Young winner is now our #5 starter.

 

Wright and Thornburg were out injured all year due to dumb managerial decisions.

 

Yes, I agree JF did an amazing job with our pen- the area I saw as our weakest link back in March.

Yes, our starting pitching did well despite the loss of Price, Wright and the fantastic decline of Porcello.

Yes, we played better with the additions of Devers, Nunez and Reed.

Yes, we won the division 2 times in a row for the first time since 1915-1916.

Yes, JF is the only Sox manager to win the division 3 times, but I do feel some context is needed.

 

The 2013-2017 Yanks were not the Yanks that other managers were up against.

We finished in last place in 2 of those 5 years.

 

I hate to sound like a negative Nellie at a time when we should be celebrating, but hearing all the gushing over JF has brought me to the point of having to speak out for the "other side" of the argument.

Edited October 1, 2017 by moonslav59

[Emp9]

My expectation was just to be like 2015-2016. I had given up on his defense already.

 

As for Didi G, I've long suspected something funny in the water fountains in the Yankee clubhouse.

 

They put YES network cameras in the water fountains too ??? Jeesus:rolleyes:

[Emp9]

RBI Leaders

 

102 Betts

90 Beni

79 Moreland

63 JBJ

62 HRam

62 Pedey

Nobody else over 40

 

HR Leaders

24 Betts

23 HRam

22 Moreland

20 Beni

17 JBJ

10 Devers (+20 HRs on the farm)

 

XBHs

72 Betts

56 Moreland

48 Beni

48 Bogey

47 HRam

39 JBJ

26 Pedey

25 Vaz

23 Devers

 

 

 

Bogey had 62 RBI and 10HRs.

 

Hey Moon, any chance you can find the 2017 Predictive WAR #'s from ST and compare them to the actual WAR #'s? I remember being very doubtful of some of them for a lot of players, not only Red Sox players. Although I think the Guardians' team pitching WAR could've been very close.

[cp176]

8 of our 8 top returning hitters by 2016 PAs declined. Six of them by over 94 points.

 

Our Cy Young winner is now our #5 starter.

 

Wright and Thornburg were out injured all year due to dumb managerial decisions.

 

Yes, I agree JF did an amazing job with our pen- the area I saw as our weakest link back in March.

Yes, our starting pitching did well despite the loss of Price, Wright and the fantastic decline of Porcello.

Yes, we played better with the additions of Devers, Nunez and Reed.

Yes, we won the division 2 times in a row for the first time since 1915-1916.

Yes, JF is the only Sox manager to win the division 3 times, but I do feel some context is needed.

 

The 2013-2017 Yanks were not the Yanks that other managers were up against.

We finished in last place in 2 of those 5 years.

 

I hate to sound like a negative Nellie at a time when we should be celebrating, but hearing all the gushing over JF has brought me to the point of having to speak out for the "other side" of the argument.

 

I enjoy reading what you write but saying things like the suggestion that anyone here is gushing over John Farrell is just wrong. No one is putting him up on the coach of the year pedestal. He is what he is. I am more moderate in my approach with respect to these types of things but that doesn't make me a Farrell groupie. In my opinion, it is a shame that people have to be on "one side" or the other when talking about good issues to discuss. My world isn't one of you are either with me or you are against me. You already know how I feel about all of the hitting stats that you have listed. With respect to Porcello- He had a great year last year. This year, I think is a lot closer to who he is than last year.

[Bellhorn04]

8 of our 8 top returning hitters by 2016 PAs declined. Six of them by over 94 points.

 

Our Cy Young winner is now our #5 starter.

 

Wright and Thornburg were out injured all year due to dumb managerial decisions.

 

-No one knows what caused the hitting declines. I don't know on what basis these could be blamed on the manager.

 

-Rick Porcello won a Cy Young, yes, but has generally been a 4+ ERA pitcher. Porcello is on Ben.

 

-Wright can be pinned on Farrell, sure, but I have no idea what he had to do with Thornburg's injury.

[moonslav59]

I enjoy reading what you write but saying things like the suggestion that anyone here is gushing over John Farrell is just wrong.

 

This sounds like "gushing" to me, and then the subsequent patting this poster on his back demonstrates multiple agreements:

 

....Farrell has managed well this year, especially since the ASB.* He has taken a team with 6 leadoff hitters and no real power hitter anchoring the middle of the lineup and taken them to the division title.* One has to give him special credit for letting Butterfield design an effective running game that made for some exciting baseball when they could get men on base.* He has gotten the most out of a sometimes shaky rotation and developed a strong bullpen.* In essence one has to recognize that JF got the most out of his club.* Even if the Sox get eliminated in the Division series (let's face it this team isn't as talented or as well balanced as either the Astros or Guardians and will be the underdogs) I fully expect to see Farrell's team being aggressive and putting it all out there.

 

No one is putting him up on the coach of the year pedestal.

 

Maybe we are arguing semantics. I have given JF a lot of credit for what I feel he deserves credit for, but I'm not neglecting the bad that went along with the good.

 

It's my opiniion, the net is a negative, but it's just an opinion.

 

He is what he is. I am more moderate in my approach with respect to these types of things but that doesn't make me a Farrell groupie. In my opinion, it is a shame that people have to be on "one side" or the other when talking about good issues to discuss. My world isn't one of you are either with me or you are against me. You already know how I feel about all of the hitting stats that you have listed. With respect to Porcello- He had a great year last year. This year, I think is a lot closer to who he is than last year.

 

As I said, I have not been one to roast JF for in game decisions. I gave him enormous credit for his handling of the staff, especially the pen. I feel my approach has been "moderate". Overall, I think JF has been a negative influence on this team.

 

I respect other people's opinions on this matter. There are some nice pluses JF brings to the team.

 

My point is that if people are going to give JF credit for maximizing the production of our pen and starters like Pom and Fister, then he deserves some blame for the massive decline of basically our whole offense.

[cp176]

As I said, I have not been one to roast JF for in game decisions. I gave him enormous credit for his handling of the staff, especially the pen. I feel my approach has been "moderate". Overall, I think JF has been a negative influence on this team.

 

I respect other people's opinions on this matter. There are some nice pluses JF brings to the team.

 

My point is that if people are going to give JF credit for maximizing the production of our pen and starters like Pom and Fister, then he deserves some blame for the massive decline of basically our whole offense.

 

Of course he does. He is the guy in charge. I'm not sure at all how much credit or blame I think that he should actually get for anything that has happened. I choose to judge him more by how this team approaches games on a daily grinding basis. I think that they by and large act professionally and they do play hard and seem to like each other. I think that if we were seeing attitudinal breakdowns here I would feel much differently toward him. I like how these guys have played and believe me I have had my doubts about the likes of Ramirez, Price, and Pedroia. They are playing together as a team. I honestly don't think that with respect to improving a players individual production and overall statistics there is a whole hell of a lot he can do. That would include pitchers and hitters to me. I also know exactly how you feel about some of the stupid mental mistakes that they have made. I feel the same way. What I would say to that though is they may have made many more gaffs then we would like to see but at least they have been working hard when they have made them.

[moonslav59]

-No one knows what caused the hitting declines. I don't know on what basis these could be blamed on the manager.

 

Yet, we give him credit for getting the most out of our pen and starters like Pom & Fister. let's just be consistent. Maybe JF's coaches play a role in the massive decline, but the buck stops with JF and DD.

 

I'm not placing 100% of the blame on JF, but when all of ouyr top 8 hitters decline by more than 55 OPS points, and 6 decline by more than 100, I find it hard to believe that it feels like some of you guys don't place any blame on JF. Then, many jump to praise what he did with the pen (me included).

 

 

-Rick Porcello won a Cy Young, yes, but has generally been a 4+ ERA pitcher. Porcello is on Ben.

 

I loved the Cespedes-Porcello trade and extension. I still do.

 

This season by Porcello is way out of whack with who the "real Porcello is". Counting Rick's first few years in the majors as 'who he is" is not really fair. The guy was brought up at a very young age. He just entered his prime last year. One should not have expected him to revert to his age 20-23 years at age 28.

 

WHIP since age 24:

1.28

1.23

1.36 (1st year in BOS)

1.01

1.40

 

He's about 0.20 worse than his prior 4 year average.

 

I wasn't expecting another Cy Young, but I do think expecting him to pitch like his last 4 year average as he enters peak prime was actually being conservative.

 

 

-Wright can be pinned on Farrell, sure, but I have no idea what he had to do with Thornburg's injury.

Word was there was some confusion over what his off season work-out regime was supposed to be. You're right, it might have been DD's fault or Thornburg's for misinterpreting what he was supposed to do. Apparently he was doing way more than he was supposed to do, and that's what led to the injury.

[moonslav59]

Of course he does. He is the guy in charge. I'm not sure at all how much credit or blame I think that he should actually get for anything that has happened. I choose to judge him more by how this team approaches games on a daily grinding basis. I think that they by and large act professionally and they do play hard and seem to like each other. I think that if we were seeing attitudinal breakdowns here I would feel much differently toward him. I like how these guys have played and believe me I have had my doubts about the likes of Ramirez, Price, and Pedroia. They are playing together as a team. I honestly don't think that with respect to improving a players individual production and overall statistics there is a whole hell of a lot he can do. That would include pitchers and hitters to me. I also know exactly how you feel about some of the stupid mental mistakes that they have made. I feel the same way. What I would say to that though is they may have made many more gaffs then we would like to see but at least they have been working hard when they have made them.

 

Well said, cp. I have seen a reduction if "gaffs" and more focus since bringing up Devers and acquiring Nunez & Reed.

 

The extra inning record attests to the grit this team has.

 

JF deserves some credit for that, but I just can't help but feel that the combination of all the needless gaffs- not the ones caused by just being aggressive- and the massive fall-off from our returning hitters kept us from being the AL favorites and could easily lead to our playoff demise.

 

The Price injury hurt, but the Guardians dealt with Salazar and Brantley injuries. The Astros had their fair share, too.

[S5Dewey]

Well said, cp. I have seen a reduction if "gaffs" and more focus since bringing up Devers and acquiring Nunez & Reed.

 

The extra inning record attests to the grit this team has.

 

JF deserves some credit for that, but I just can't help but feel that the combination of all the needless gaffs- not the ones caused by just being aggressive- and the massive fall-off from our returning hitters kept us from being the AL favorites and could easily lead to our playoff demise.

 

The Price injury hurt, but the Guardians dealt with Salazar and Brantley injuries. The Astros had their fair share, too.

 

Wow. Farrell has won back to back division championships, managed the bullpen well, and the team has been playing better (without as many boneheaded plays) recently.

 

I'm glad I'm not in Moon's doghouse. It's DEEP!!

[Northern Star]

Well said, cp. I have seen a reduction if "gaffs" and more focus since bringing up Devers and acquiring Nunez & Reed.

 

The extra inning record attests to the grit this team has.

 

JF deserves some credit for that, but I just can't help but feel that the combination of all the needless gaffs- not the ones caused by just being aggressive- and the massive fall-off from our returning hitters kept us from being the AL favorites and could easily lead to our playoff demise.

 

The Price injury hurt, but the Guardians dealt with Salazar and Brantley injuries. The Astros had their fair share, too.

 

Also, the Sox did not go 162-0. Unacceptable. Fire him!

[moonslav59]

Wow. Farrell has won back to back division championships, managed the bullpen well, and the team has been playing better (without as many boneheaded plays) recently.

 

I'm glad I'm not in Moon's doghouse. It's DEEP!!

 

There's only 2 guys in my dog house: JF and Holt. HRam is banging on the door to get in. Holt is doing his best to get out. Plus, Holt's issues are almost certainly injury-related.

[Bellhorn04]

Yet, we give him credit for getting the most out of our pen and starters like Pom & Fister. let's just be consistent. Maybe JF's coaches play a role in the massive decline, but the buck stops with JF and DD.

 

In all honesty, I haven't given Farrell a shred of credit for Pom and Fister. Any credit or discredit for those 2 goes to DD.

 

As for the bullpen, I have given Farrell some credit for how he's utilized it. I think he has generally made good moves with the in-game changes. But it would be fair to say that the bullpen has made him look good by their performances.

[moonslav59]

Yet, we give him credit for getting the most out of our pen and starters like Pom & Fister. let's just be consistent. Maybe JF's coaches play a role in the massive decline, but the buck stops with JF and DD.

 

In all honesty, I haven't given Farrell a shred of credit for Pom and Fister. Any credit or discredit for those 2 goes to DD.

 

As for the bullpen, I have given Farrell some credit for how he's utilized it. I think he has generally made good moves with the in-game changes. But it would be fair to say that the bullpen has made him look good by their performances.

 

Good points.

 

With Smith, Thornburg and Ross out all or most of the year, my expectations were very low for our pen. I give JF some of the credit for the pen doing much better than expectations. Withe Price being out much of the season, and Wright being out all year (maybe because of JF), I wouldn't give JF too much credit for their performance. Pom and Fister did better than expected, ERod about the same and Porcello worse.

 

I get how blaming the manager for a massive offensive decline has its flaws, but I have to think he had some role in it, even if just a little.

 

The great amount of fundamental and mental mistakes is mre easily attributed to the manager, but of course, the players and GM bear most of the brunt of criticism and praise.

[cp176]

 

Good points.

 

With Smith, Thornburg and Ross out all or most of the year, my expectations were very low for our pen. I give JF some of the credit for the pen doing much better than expectations. Withe Price being out much of the season, and Wright being out all year (maybe because of JF), I wouldn't give JF too much credit for their performance. Pom and Fister did better than expected, ERod about the same and Porcello worse.

 

I get how blaming the manager for a massive offensive decline has its flaws, but I have to think he had some role in it, even if just a little.

 

The great amount of fundamental and mental mistakes is mre easily attributed to the manager, but of course, the players and GM bear most of the brunt of criticism and praise.

 

Now you are talking. A reasonable voice says that he gets his share of the credit as well as the blame. Second guessing and discussing things like this is what we do.

[SoxHop]

Of course he does. He is the guy in charge. I'm not sure at all how much credit or blame I think that he should actually get for anything that has happened. I choose to judge him more by how this team approaches games on a daily grinding basis. I think that they by and large act professionally and they do play hard and seem to like each other. I think that if we were seeing attitudinal breakdowns here I would feel much differently toward him. I like how these guys have played and believe me I have had my doubts about the likes of Ramirez, Price, and Pedroia. They are playing together as a team. I honestly don't think that with respect to improving a players individual production and overall statistics there is a whole hell of a lot he can do. That would include pitchers and hitters to me. I also know exactly how you feel about some of the stupid mental mistakes that they have made. I feel the same way. What I would say to that though is they may have made many more gaffs then we would like to see but at least they have been working hard when they have made them.

 

One thing that really striked me is how many come from behind games and extra inning games we won. A lot has of credit has to be given to the bullpen on that one, but for some reason I think there is a sliver of managerial success in all those wins.

[SoxHop]

Yet, we give him credit for getting the most out of our pen and starters like Pom & Fister. let's just be consistent. Maybe JF's coaches play a role in the massive decline, but the buck stops with JF and DD.

 

In all honesty, I haven't given Farrell a shred of credit for Pom and Fister. Any credit or discredit for those 2 goes to DD.

 

As for the bullpen, I have given Farrell some credit for how he's utilized it. I think he has generally made good moves with the in-game changes. But it would be fair to say that the bullpen has made him look good by their performances.

 

Farrell did keep the train on the tracks this year which I think is his primary job. Just don't let the team explode. If you really think about all the stuff he has to deal with everyday, it is probably more impressive than people would think. He's dealing with a staff of players who all have their issues, coaches, upper managment, the fans, broadcasters. He's analyzing what has occured and how to make things better and also preparing for the future. Keeping the train on the tracks may sound easier than it really is. And not only that, if you just accomplish that, you get an average rating.

[Larry Cook]

Farrell has overcome season ending injuries to several pitchers.

 

He has overcome poor decisions by dombrowski, i.e. Trading Shaw and giving Pablo the starting 3rd base job.

 

He has overcome an endless stream of walking wounded, pedroia, Hanley, boegarts, Moreland, Bradley, Nunez and price.

 

He has overcome some head scratching under performers this year. Betts and porcello.

 

He has overcome a lineup with a complete lack of power.

 

And most important, he has overcome a Yankees team that has played over their head for almost the entire year.

 

I don't know what else he could have done better this year, except maybe grab a bat and pencil himself into the lineup.

 

Just think what he could have been if he had a decent GM to work with?

[moonslav59]

Farrell has overcome season ending injuries to several pitchers.

 

He has overcome poor decisions by dombrowski, i.e. Trading Shaw and giving Pablo the starting 3rd base job.

 

He has overcome an endless stream of walking wounded, pedroia, Hanley, boegarts, Moreland, Bradley, Nunez and price.

 

He has overcome some head scratching under performers this year. Betts and porcello.

 

He has overcome a lineup with a complete lack of power.

 

And most important, he has overcome a Yankees team that has played over their head for almost the entire year.

 

I don't know what else he could have done better this year, except maybe grab a bat and pencil himself into the lineup.

 

Just think what he could have been if he had a decent GM to work with?

 

He overcame Sale.

 

He overcame turning a Cy Young winner into dirt.

 

He overcame Vaz breaking out.

 

He overcame squat.

 

The team overcame all these issues and won, despite JF and all the bonehead plays.

[Bellhorn04]

He overcame turning a Cy Young winner into dirt.

 

What are you saying?

[Spudboy]

 

Farrell did keep the train on the tracks this year which I think is his primary job. Just don't let the team explode. If you really think about all the stuff he has to deal with everyday, it is probably more impressive than people would think. He's dealing with a staff of players who all have their issues, coaches, upper managment, the fans, broadcasters. He's analyzing what has occured and how to make things better and also preparing for the future. Keeping the train on the tracks may sound easier than it really is. And not only that, if you just accomplish that, you get an average rating.

 

Good post.

 

I bet Farrell is back in 2018.

[Spudboy]

I have no idea how I quoted Soxhop but Bell is credited for the quoted post.