A Realistic View at 2017 Part III

[a700hitter]

All of us are reluctant to see long term deals. Here's my top 5 bad contracts.

 

1 Pablo Sandoval $38M plus $5M buyout for doing NOTHING. (which is better than giving us negative war)

2 Hanley Ramirez $44M left unless it's not vested, he still has chance to redeem it.

3 David Price $31M per for another 5 years. Just feels like he'll need a surgery at some point and will lose out 2 more years of production. Could become 2nd bust.

4 Rick Porcello $20M per for two more years. I guess it's been a 'wash' for first two years. But if he doesn't turn it around, it's a bad deal for next two years.

5 Chris Young $7.5M thank goodness it's almost done

 

And I was all in on David Price. I thought DD had to sign Price. If he's healthy, maybe this will all work out.

 

Where's the next bad contract?

What about $72 million for nothing from Rusney Castillo? That has to rank up there.

[cp176]

How many years (and how much money) would you offer Drew Pomeranz, who turns 29 in November?

 

Not too long and certainly not too much. In other words - I don't know. I would just like to see him stick around.

[Nick]

What about $72 million for nothing from Rusney Castillo? That has to rank up there.

 

the guy is not on 40 man roster...it could have been $500M...It's like Henry made a donation.

[moonslav59]

If you don't count Castillo, then don't count Pablo.

 

IMO, both count, and both were sucky contracts.

 

To me, Pablo and CC are about tied for the worstSox deals ever.

[Slasher9]

If you don't count Castillo, then don't count Pablo.

 

IMO, both count, and both were sucky contracts.

 

To me, Pablo and CC are about tied for the worstSox deals ever.

 

When all is said and done price will bump off those two.....

[moonslav59]

Here's a look at our top players by PAs and the slots they have hit in mostly:

 

641 Betts .780 (1st 390, 3rd 151, 2nd 67

581 Beni .790 (2nd 272, 3rd 126, 4th 80, 5th 54, 6th 39)

545 Bogey .727 (3rd 272, 6th 169, 5th 38, 1st 39, 4th 30, 7th 20)

513 HRam .757 (4th 299, 5th 148, 6th 35, 7th 23)

508 More .767 (4th 201, 5th 149, 6th 76, 7th 63)

466 J B J .756 (7th 145, 6th 114, 9th 86, 5th 68, 8th 42)

409 Pedey .790 (2nd 232, 1st 82, 3rd 64, 6th 20)

288 Vazq .737 (8th 167, 9th 65, 7th 54)

272 Leon .634 (8th 156, 9th 61, 7th 47)

251 Young .715 (5th 63, 6th 54, 7th 48, 8th 37, 2nd 18, 4th 18)

171 Nunez .798 (1st 113, 2nd 32, 3rd 20, 4th 4)

170 DMarr .582 (9th 134, 8th 23)

160 Devers .896 (5th 62, 6th 41, 7th 24, 9th 19)

125 B Holt .497 (9th 47, 8th 27, 1st 29, 2nd 12)

 

Numbers in Red are one I think are higher than they should have been,

 

[Nick]

Funny there's no more talk of anything negative about Sale's trade. DD read the tea leaves correctly. He had a third baseman ready in minor leagues and it wasn't Moncada. It's unbelievable to me that we have Sale for two more years at about $25M.

 

Deal for Carson Smith was still the right move. We also received Roenis Elias in that deal. Smith is under team control for next three years. There's an outside chance he can take over the role of closer if Kimbrel does not return for 2019-2020. You have to think his fastball will return to pre-surgery level in 2018.

 

It still maybe that we'll have regrets trading away Espinoza but we've seen now what DD saw in Pom when the trade was made last year. My only regret would be that he's only under team control for another year.

 

Now that Devers is on board, Shaw/Thornburg deal is easier to stomach. We'll just have to see if we get any production out of Thornburg. Unfortunately I doubt he'll be 100% until 2019, last year of team control. Thinking we'd get 3 good years out of him, now it maybe limited to one. It's not so much what we gave up but what we got in return.Very disappointing.

 

We have two more years of team control for Workman, four more years from Barnes and Hembree. We also look to have plethora of bullpen options in our farm. Our pen should be fine.

 

Adding Nunez and Reed and NOT picking up a third baseman was just the right move by DD. Just what Theo would have done.

Edited September 10, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

Here's a look at our top players by PAs and the slots they have hit in mostly:

 

641 Betts .780 (1st 390, 3rd 151, 2nd 67

581 Beni .790 (2nd 272, 3rd 126, 4th 80, 5th 54, 6th 39)

545 Bogey .727 (3rd 272, 6th 169, 5th 38, 1st 39, 4th 30, 7th 20)

513 HRam .757 (4th 299, 5th 148, 6th 35, 7th 23)

508 More .767 (4th 201, 5th 149, 6th 76, 7th 63)

466 J B J .756 (7th 145, 6th 114, 9th 86, 5th 68, 8th 42)

409 Pedey .790 (2nd 232, 1st 82, 3rd 64, 6th 20)

288 Vazq .737 (8th 167, 9th 65, 7th 54)

272 Leon .634 (8th 156, 9th 61, 7th 47)

251 Young .715 (5th 63, 6th 54, 7th 48, 8th 37, 2nd 18, 4th 18)

171 Nunez .798 (1st 113, 2nd 32, 3rd 20, 4th 4)

170 DMarr .582 (9th 134, 8th 23)

160 Devers .896 (5th 62, 6th 41, 7th 24, 9th 19)

125 B Holt .497 (9th 47, 8th 27, 1st 29, 2nd 12)

 

Numbers in Red are one I think are higher than they should have been,

 

 

Your numbers in red basically suggest we've always had the wrong guy hitting cleanup. But the overall numbers show we haven't really had anyone with very strong cleanup hitter numbers.

[moonslav59]

Funny there's no more talk of anything negative about Sale's trade. DD read the tea leaves correctly. He had a third baseman ready in minor leagues and it wasn't Moncada. It's unbelievable to me that we have Sale for two more years at about $25M.

 

Deal for Carson Smith was still the right move. We also received Roenis Elias in that deal. Smith is under team control for next three years. There's an outside chance he can take over the role of closer if Kimbrel does not return for 2019-2020. You have to think his fastball will return to pre-surgery level in 2018.

 

It still maybe that we'll have regrets trading away Espinoza but we've seen now what DD saw in Pom when the trade was made last year. My only regret would be that he's only under team control for another year.

 

Now that Devers is on board, Shaw/Thornburg deal is easier to stomach. We'll just have to see if we get any production out of Thornburg. Unfortunately I doubt he'll be 100% until 2019, last year of team control. Thinking we'd get 3 good years out of him, now it maybe limited to one. It's not so much what we gave up but what we got in return.Very disappointing.

 

We have two more years of team control for Workman, four more years from Barnes and Hembree. We also look to have plethora of bullpen options in our farm. Our pen should be fine.

 

Adding Nunez and Reed and NOT picking up a third baseman was just the right move by DD. Just what Theo would have done.

 

Just about every trade DD has made has looked good to great, so far, except Smith & Thornburg.

 

You mentioned not really missing Shaw now that we have Devers, but Shaw is actually an excellent defensive 1Bman who still has a very high OPS this year. We could use him right now. We also could have used the money we spent on Moreland somewhere else.

 

I'm not complaining. DD's trades have worked. They have built a formidable window for success.

[oldtimer]

What about $72 million for nothing from Rusney Castillo? That has to rank up there.

 

wasn't there also $32 million for Allen Craig? We also got nothing for that expenditure.

[harmony]

Funny there's no more talk of anything negative about Sale's trade. DD read the tea leaves correctly. He had a third baseman ready in minor leagues and it wasn't Moncada. It's unbelievable to me that we have Sale for two more years at about $25M.

 

Deal for Carson Smith was still the right move. We also received Roenis Elias in that deal. Smith is under team control for next three years. There's an outside chance he can take over the role of closer if Kimbrel does not return for 2019-2020. You have to think his fastball will return to pre-surgery level in 2018.

 

In two MLB innings this year Carson Smith's fastball has average 92.0 mph, just below his career average of 92.9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P#pitchtype

 

Smith's average fastball this year ranks 15th among the 27 Red Sox pitchers while his career average would tie Addison Reed for 11th on the team:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

Smith no longer throws his most effective pitch, the slider, as frequently as the righthander did in his breakout 2015 season before Tommy John surgery.

[moonslav59]

Your numbers in red basically suggest we've always had the wrong guy hitting cleanup. But the overall numbers show we haven't really had anyone with very strong cleanup hitter numbers.

 

Just about everyone hits worse than their overall numbers when they are placed in the 4 or 5 slot. Call is strange or unfortunate, or whatever you wish, but this is a big reason our run production has been so low.

 

4 Slot OPS vs overall OPS (which includes 4 slot PAs)

(Listed in order of most PAs at this slot.)

 

.757 HRam .757

.689 More .767

.722 Beni .790

.762 Betts .780

1.567 Young .715

 

To me, this was JF's major line-up mistake. He should not have left Moreland batting 4th for so long. Yes, he was hot early. Yes, nobody else looked like a 4 hitter (except Betts), but still, just about everyonee lse has done better than him in this slot. He has the second most PAs in the 4 slot and has 60 more PAs than everyone else not named HRam combined (201 to 139). Moreland batting 5th did much better (see below). Personally, I'd have had Betts batting 4th just about all year, realizing we'd then be weaker in the one slot.

 

5 Slot OPS (much worse than 4 slot)

 

.738 More .767

.740 HRam .757

.480 JBJ .756

.540 Young .715

.699 Devers .896

.735 Beni .790

.468 Bogey.727

 

Although HRam and Morelan's 5 slot numbers are not very good, they blow others away. Ideally, Moreland and HRam would be decent 6-7 slot hitters. Ideally, we maybe could have used Bogey in the one or two slot when he was hot (early) and JBJ batting 3-4-5 when he was hot, but whenever JF moved these guys into these slots, they failed, so it's hard to know what was the right thing to do.

 

It's clear we have no clean-up hitter on this team. Even guys like Devers and Nunez do not fit the bill and have not done well in very limited time in the 3-5 slots.

 

[moonslav59]

In two MLB innings this year Carson Smith's fastball has average 92.0 mph, just below his career average of 92.9:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13172&position=P#pitchtype

 

Smith's average fastball this year ranks 15th among the 27 Red Sox pitchers while his career average would tie Addison Reed for 11th on the team:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=4&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d

 

Smith no longer throws his most effective pitch, the slider, as frequently as the righthander did in his breakout 2015 season before Tommy John surgery.

 

Thanks for the info, harmony. I'm wondering, if he will start throwing the slider more often as he reaches full recovery level.

[oldtimer]

Just about everyone hits worse than their overall numbers when they are placed in the 4 or 5 slot. Call is strange or unfortunate, or whatever you wish, but this is a big reason our run production has been so low.

 

4 Slot OPS vs overall OPS (which includes 4 slot PAs)

(Listed in order of most PAs at this slot.)

 

.757 HRam .757

.689 More .767

.722 Beni .790

.762 Betts .780

1.567 Young .715

 

To me, this was JF's major line-up mistake. He should not have left Moreland batting 4th for so long. Yes, he was hot early. Yes, nobody else looked like a 4 hitter (except Betts), but still, just about everyonee lse has done better than him in this slot. He has the second most PAs in the 4 slot and has 60 more PAs than everyone else not named HRam combined (201 to 139). Moreland batting 5th did much better (see below). Personally, I'd have had Betts batting 4th just about all year, realizing we'd then be weaker in the one slot.

 

5 Slot OPS (much worse than 4 slot)

 

.738 More .767

.740 HRam .757

.480 JBJ .756

.540 Young .715

.699 Devers .896

.735 Beni .790

.468 Bogey.727

 

Although HRam and Morelan's 5 slot numbers are not very good, they blow others away. Ideally, Moreland and HRam would be decent 6-7 slot hitters. Ideally, we maybe could have used Bogey in the one or two slot when he was hot (early) and JBJ batting 3-4-5 when he was hot, but whenever JF moved these guys into these slots, they failed, so it's hard to know what was the right thing to do.

 

It's clear we have no clean-up hitter on this team. Even guys like Devers and Nunez do not fit the bill and have not done well in very limited time in the 3-5 slots.

 

 

And today it appeared that Nunez, Haley and Pedey were not available. Some for a rest but Nunez is a little bit of an unknown given his gimpy leg the other night. It didn't give Farrell much to work with today and Cobb is a really good pitcher. What we did have looked anemic. We can use the day off that we have. Maybe our regulars will be available.

[Kimmi]

Funny there's no more talk of anything negative about Sale's trade. DD read the tea leaves correctly. He had a third baseman ready in minor leagues and it wasn't Moncada. It's unbelievable to me that we have Sale for two more years at about $25M.

 

Deal for Carson Smith was still the right move. We also received Roenis Elias in that deal. Smith is under team control for next three years. There's an outside chance he can take over the role of closer if Kimbrel does not return for 2019-2020. You have to think his fastball will return to pre-surgery level in 2018.

 

It still maybe that we'll have regrets trading away Espinoza but we've seen now what DD saw in Pom when the trade was made last year. My only regret would be that he's only under team control for another year.

 

Now that Devers is on board, Shaw/Thornburg deal is easier to stomach. We'll just have to see if we get any production out of Thornburg. Unfortunately I doubt he'll be 100% until 2019, last year of team control. Thinking we'd get 3 good years out of him, now it maybe limited to one. It's not so much what we gave up but what we got in return.Very disappointing.

 

We have two more years of team control for Workman, four more years from Barnes and Hembree. We also look to have plethora of bullpen options in our farm. Our pen should be fine.

 

Adding Nunez and Reed and NOT picking up a third baseman was just the right move by DD. Just what Theo would have done.

 

Well, it's difficult to say anything negative in hindsight. It turns out that Dombrowski was 100% correct in trading for Sale. I still don't like the magnitude of prospects that Dombrowski has traded away, which includes the Sale trade.

 

Oddly enough, I liked the Smith and Thornburg trades.

[moonslav59]

Well, it's difficult to say anything negative in hindsight. It turns out that Dombrowski was 100% correct in trading for Sale. I still don't like the magnitude of prospects that Dombrowski has traded away, which includes the Sale trade.

 

Oddly enough, I liked the Smith and Thornburg trades.

 

Well, the Smith trade was not really prospects traded.

 

I liked the Thornburg trade too, because I thought Shaw was toast.

 

I loved the Sale trade. It was the type of trade I've wanted for a long time. The type of trade I wanted with the players we traded for Kimbrel & Pom.

 

We've seen Quintana and Gray traded recently. I wish we had held onto some of our prospects, so we could have gotten one of them, but what do I know? Pom & Kimbrel have carried us this year.

 

[harmony]

Thanks for the info, harmony. I'm wondering, if he will start throwing the slider more often as he reaches full recovery level.

I wonder whether Carson Smith's injury was related to his frequent use of the slider.

[oldtimer]

Watching the game play out last night with our depleted lineup, I still remained worried about an older brother (80's) who made the decision to stay in Venice, Fla rather than go into traffic with little gas or lodging available. I wanted him to drive up to North Carolina to stay with us but age gets in the way. I heard from him around 9:00 pm with hurricane force winds battering the house and water from rain rising near to the house (not storm surge). Trying to contact them but there is no power there. He and his wife are both big Sox fans.

[Nick]

Watching the game play out last night with our depleted lineup, I still remained worried about an older brother (80's) who made the decision to stay in Venice, Fla rather than go into traffic with little gas or lodging available. I wanted him to drive up to North Carolina to stay with us but age gets in the way. I heard from him around 9:00 pm with hurricane force winds battering the house and water from rain rising near to the house (not storm surge). Trying to contact them but there is no power there. He and his wife are both big Sox fans.

 

Half the country is probably 'connected' to Florida through travels and relatives. Just little eerie watching the Rays play when Tampa was ready to get slammed. Praying for everyone's safety. My step daughter and family are hunkered down north of Ft. Meyers area.

 

It's sad that we need this type of event to bring the country together. Why can't we just get along? Respect one another. Why are we so angry?

[Bellhorn04]

I wonder whether Carson Smith's injury was related to his frequent use of the slider.

 

No doubt. Maybe instead of TJ surgery, they should call it TMS surgery - Too Many Sliders surgery.

[jad]

Half the country is probably 'connected' to Florida through travels and relatives. Just little eerie watching the Rays play when Tampa was ready to get slammed. Praying for everyone's safety. My step daughter and family are hunkered down north of Ft. Meyers area.

 

It's sad that we need this type of event to bring the country together. Why can't we just get along? Respect one another. Why are we so angry?

 

Because we have an ADM that holds half the country (women) in contempt? refuses to condemn neo-Nazis? is full of racists? wants to get rid of health care? is pro-Christian? anti-abortion rights? anti-gay? creationist? believes wealth is a sign of virtue? despises poor people? doesn't believe in science? encourages police violence? And we have 40% of registered voters who actually supported this? Could that have anything to do with it?

[moonslav59]

No doubt. Maybe instead of TJ surgery, they should call it TMS surgery - Too Many Sliders surgery.

 

If he can never throw the slider like he used to, one has to wonder if he'll ever be as effective as he was that one year with Seattle.

[Bellhorn04]

If he can never throw the slider like he used to, one has to wonder if he'll ever be as effective as he was that one year with Seattle.

 

Put your faith in modern medicine. TJ surgery has done wonders. Just look at Lackey for example.

[Nick]

Because we have an ADM that holds half the country (women) in contempt? refuses to condemn neo-Nazis? is full of racists? wants to get rid of health care? is pro-Christian? anti-abortion rights? anti-gay? creationist? believes wealth is a sign of virtue? despises poor people? doesn't believe in science? encourages police violence? And we have 40% of registered voters who actually supported this? Could that have anything to do with it?

 

So you hang out with the 60% of righteous people? Good for you.

[Spudboy]

Because we have an ADM that holds half the country (women) in contempt? refuses to condemn neo-Nazis? is full of racists? wants to get rid of health care? is pro-Christian? anti-abortion rights? anti-gay? creationist? believes wealth is a sign of virtue? despises poor people? doesn't believe in science? encourages police violence? And we have 40% of registered voters who actually supported this? Could that have anything to do with it?

 

That's what lack of education and willful ignorance can do. Make America Great Again!

 

We should drop the political stuff before a shitstorm.

[moonslav59]

Put your faith in modern medicine. TJ surgery has done wonders. Just look at Lackey for example.

 

I'm hopeful.

 

I have Smith penciled in to the 2 slot behind Kimbrel for 2018.

 

I'm hoping Thornburg can be our 3/4.

[cp176]

Because we have an ADM that holds half the country (women) in contempt? refuses to condemn neo-Nazis? is full of racists? wants to get rid of health care? is pro-Christian? anti-abortion rights? anti-gay? creationist? believes wealth is a sign of virtue? despises poor people? doesn't believe in science? encourages police violence? And we have 40% of registered voters who actually supported this? Could that have anything to do with it?

 

I post here for fun. Personally, that is the beauty of athletics in general for me. I'm a middle grounder and I truly do not want to even read any more of this angry crap than I have to. The beat goes on.

[Emp9]

I post here for fun. Personally, that is the beauty of athletics in general for me. I'm a middle grounder and I truly do not want to even read any more of this angry crap than I have to. The beat goes on.

 

was it an "angry" post? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, I'd be hard pressed to disagree with it. I will digress from it now though.

[Slasher9]

Before Youk puts an end to the thread let me throw this out there....

The BDC site allowed political posts so many of my longtime friends from there know exactly where my ideology lays. That said….since the craziness of 45 I have had many conversations with all of my friends…some of whom are leftist commies and some of whom are righty Nazis and most of whom are somewhere in the middle (please note the commies and Nazis references were only in jest and not intended be taken seriously). The one thing that all have come to agree on is that 45 is really f***ing up our country. There certainly was high hope early on that this new president would “shake things up” in a good way (or a great way). As the months have gone by each has realized and admitted in conversation that it is a terrible situation we find ourselves in as a country with this guy as the president. Now many of them will certainly toe the party line and support him publicly because they cannot bear to have any left leaning policies shown the light of day.

As I have come to respect all of you (OK…most) on here I do wonder if anyone still has the passion to fully support 45. And if so…why?

 

i am struggling to find a reason to support our president and even the times where my "party" hasn't held office i have always supported the president. its what we do as Americans. but it seems like that "we should support our President" philosophy changed during the dubya years and without a doubt during Obama's presidency....

[Emp9]

Before Youk puts an end to the thread let me throw this out there....

The BDC site allowed political posts so many of my longtime friends from there know exactly where my ideology lays. That said….since the craziness of 45 I have had many conversations with all of my friends…some of whom are leftist commies and some of whom are righty Nazis and most of whom are somewhere in the middle (please note the commies and Nazis references were only in jest and not intended be taken seriously). The one thing that all have come to agree on is that 45 is really f***ing up our country. There certainly was high hope early on that this new president would “shake things up” in a good way (or a great way). As the months have gone by each has realized and admitted in conversation that it is a terrible situation we find ourselves in as a country with this guy as the president. Now many of them will certainly toe the party line and support him publicly because they cannot bear to have any left leaning policies shown the light of day.

As I have come to respect all of you (OK…most) on here I do wonder if anyone still has the passion to fully support 45. And if so…why?

 

i am struggling to find a reason to support our president and even the times where my "party" hasn't held office i have always supported the president. its what we do as Americans. but it seems like that "we should support our President" philosophy changed during the dubya years and without a doubt during Obama's presidency....

 

I'll give Trump a little credit. It's quarter after 10am on 9/11 and no planes have crashed into any skyscrapers yet.