Should Jackie Bradley Jr be traded?

[jad]

He looked really bad last night. In the last few weeks (months?-- into last year?) he has proven not to be that .230 hitter the Sox could live with, but more like a guy you would want to replace with a DH. I do not understand how anyone who has proven he can hit in the past can look so bad. (But then, Daniel Bard comes to mind).

[Maxbialystock]

WAR ratings for Moreland, +.9, and JBJ, -.4, right now give Moreland the decisive edge. I actually think the gap is larger because Moreland's OPS is almost double JBJ's.

 

I also think JBJ doesn't make nearly the difference on defense that people usually give him credit for. I agree he's good, maybe gold glove good, but I also think 80% of defense is the guy on the mound, not the eight position players on the field with him.

 

There are actually 9 players on defense, including the pitcher. If you divide the defensive pie by 9, you get 2% and change for each. If you divide the 9 offensive players, including the DH, into 100%, the average contribution is 10% and change. That's a five to one ratio, hitting over defense.

 

You can make it closer by saying the pitcher only counts 60%, which is ridiculous, and by giving the centerfielder a higher than average responsibility. But I think the best you can justify is saying offense is twice as important as defense for any player with the possible exception of the catcher. I separate catchers out because they are so important on defense and because so few players want to be catchers or are able to become catchers.

 

JBJ has stayed in the lineup for big chunks of this season for several reasons: great glove, great pitching for the first 20 games or so, great hitting by the team, and a great won-lost record. Now that the Yankees have caught up and there are questions about the pitching, hitting has become that much more important, and JBJ's very weak bat is hurting the offense, especially when both catchers are not hitting well either. Oh, and that .510 of his is artificially high. It was .650 in April and is .212 (OPS, not OBP) in May.

 

Overall, however, I think the Sox want to keep him awhile because it's possible his hitting will come around as it has done in the past. Plus he will remain a world class defensive replacement if nothing else.

Edited May 13, 2018 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

WAR ratings for Moreland, +.9, and JBJ, -.4, right now give Moreland the decisive edge. I actually think the gap is larger because Moreland's OPS is almost double JBJ's.

 

I also think JBJ doesn't make nearly the difference on defense that people usually give him credit for. I agree he's good, maybe gold glove good, but I also think 80% of defense is the guy on the mound, not the eight position players on the field with him.

 

There are actually 9 players on defense, including the pitcher. If you divide the defensive pie by 9, you get 2% and change for each. If you divide the 9 offensive players, including the DH, into 100%, the average contribution is 10% and change. That's a five to one ratio, hitting over defense.

 

You can make it closer by saying the pitcher only counts 60%, which is ridiculous, and by giving the centerfielder a higher than average responsibility. But I think the best you can justify is saying offense is twice as important as defense for any player with the possible exception of the catcher. I separate catchers out because they are so important on defense and because so few players want to be catchers or are able to become catchers.

 

JBJ has stayed in the lineup for big chunks of this season for several reasons: great glove, great pitching for the first 20 games or so, great hitting by the team, and a great won-lost record. Now that the Yankees have caught up and there are questions about the pitching, hitting has become that much more important, and JBJ's very weak bat is hurting the offense, especially when both catchers are not hitting well either. Oh, and that .510 of his is artificially high. It was .650 in April and is .212 (OPS, not OBP) in May.

 

Overall, however, I think the Sox want to keep him awhile because it's possible his hitting will come around as it has done in the past. Plus he will remain a world class defensive replacement if nothing else.

 

Couldn't you then say the opposing pitcher is 80%of our offense (or lack of offense)?

 

So, each hitter is just 2% of the equation?

[cp176]

WAR ratings for Moreland, +.9, and JBJ, -.4, right now give Moreland the decisive edge. I actually think the gap is larger because Moreland's OPS is almost double JBJ's.

 

I also think JBJ doesn't make nearly the difference on defense that people usually give him credit for. I agree he's good, maybe gold glove good, but I also think 80% of defense is the guy on the mound, not the eight position players on the field with him.

 

There are actually 9 players on defense, including the pitcher. If you divide the defensive pie by 9, you get 2% and change for each. If you divide the 9 offensive players, including the DH, into 100%, the average contribution is 10% and change. That's a five to one ratio, hitting over defense.

 

You can make it closer by saying the pitcher only counts 60%, which is ridiculous, and by giving the centerfielder a higher than average responsibility. But I think the best you can justify is saying offense is twice as important as defense for any player with the possible exception of the catcher. I separate catchers out because they are so important on defense and because so few players want to be catchers or are able to become catchers.

 

JBJ has stayed in the lineup for big chunks of this season for several reasons: great glove, great pitching for the first 20 games or so, great hitting by the team, and a great won-lost record. Now that the Yankees have caught up and there are questions about the pitching, hitting has become that much more important, and JBJ's very weak bat is hurting the offense, especially when both catchers are not hitting well either. Oh, and that .510 of his is artificially high. It was .650 in April and is .212 (OPS, not OBP) in May.

 

Overall, however, I think the Sox want to keep him awhile because it's possible his hitting will come around as it has done in the past. Plus he will remain a world class defensive replacement if nothing else.

 

I agree with an awful lot of what you have said here. I am one of those though who really does believe that your up the middle defense is incredibly important to your team's success. Maybe that is because I was for the most part an all glove and not much bat second baseman - lol. Even considering my feelings about the importance of defense, it really is hard to justify playing a centerfielder who is hitting less than .170 at this point in the season. The Red Sox current record I think like you gives the team the luxury of playing JBJ and hoping that the slump ultimately ends.

[Maxbialystock]

Couldn't you then say the opposing pitcher is 80%of our offense (or lack of offense)?

 

So, each hitter is just 2% of the equation?

 

Actually, no. However effective our offense is against a specific pitcher, 100% of it comes from our hitters. I completely agree that a great pitcher against us makes a huge difference or even a decent pitcher having a great game--see the no hitter earlier. Or Severino last weekend. Or even Friday night's game when our hitters looked tired.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree with an awful lot of what you have said here. I am one of those though who really does believe that your up the middle defense is incredibly important to your team's success. Maybe that is because I was for the most part an all glove and not much bat second baseman - lol. Even considering my feelings about the importance of defense, it really is hard to justify playing a centerfielder who is hitting less than .170 at this point in the season. The Red Sox current record I think like you gives the team the luxury of playing JBJ and hoping that the slump ultimately ends.

 

To be honest, all I really wanted to achieve with that lengthy analysis was to underscore that playing or not playing JBJ is not an easy decision for Cora. For me right now it seems obvious to bench him, but you can't be sure he won't finally figure out how to fix his swing. This is exactly what happened in 2014 and again in 2015, both losing seasons for the Sox after winning it all in 2013 with Ellsbury in CF with a WAR of 5.8. In 2016 JBJ had a WAR of 5.3 and last year half that at 2.8. Both 93 win seasons.

 

Right now the Sox seem to have a team, assuming the bullpen comes around, that could win 100 games thanks to excellent hitting and a rotation that was very good early and could be very good again if the last outings by Price, Sale, Pom, and ERod are any indication. Plus Porcello of course. And Velazquez in a pinch.

[moonslav59]

Actually, no. However effective our offense is against a specific pitcher, 100% of it comes from our hitters. I completely agree that a great pitcher against us makes a huge difference or even a decent pitcher having a great game--see the no hitter earlier. Or Severino last weekend. Or even Friday night's game when our hitters looked tired.

 

Then our pitchers are at 100% of the mercy of our opposing hitters.

[Bellhorn04]

This discussion is heading toward Yogi Berra territory...

 

"Baseball is ninety per cent mental. The other half is physical."

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Having watched every Sox game for the first time in my life it just reinforced what I have always believed. JBJ simply does not make a play a week that other center fielders aren't making. Sorry I just haven't seen that. Even if he did it won't make up for .167, doubtful his defense makes up for hitting .230 IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

Having watched every Sox game for the first time in my life it just reinforced what I have always believed. JBJ simply does not make a play a week that other center fielders aren't making. Sorry I just haven't seen that. Even if he did it won't make up for .167' date=' doubtful his defense makes up for hitting .230 IMO.[/quote']

 

As I suggested earlier somewhere, you can't make a big defensive play unless the opportunity arises, which is quite by chance.

[Maxbialystock]

Then our pitchers are at 100% of the mercy of our opposing hitters.

 

Oh, come on. If that were true, every MLB team would not have 12 pitchers on their 25 man active rosters. This game is dominated by the confrontations between hitters and pitchers, and good pitchers can make a huge difference in game outcomes, as can bad ones. Despite the lowered mounds, smaller ball park dimensions, etc. hitters today struggle against good pitchers and are sort of bottom feeders--looking for that "pitch to hit." Guys like Mookie are definitely the exception, and even he will have his 0-for games. That's I think why good scoring teams have several good bats in the lineup. Plus home run power.

[moonslav59]

Oh, come on. If that were true, every MLB team would not have 12 pitchers on their 25 man active rosters.

 

I don't believe it. i was just extending your opinion to its logical conclusion.

[FredLynn]

Tale of the tape as of this morning. Bradley is headed towards being released IMO-if he doesn't accept a demotion to AAA.

 

.167/.510/37 with a WAR of -0.4. Truly horrendous numbers that no amount of defense can make up for.

[moonslav59]

Having watched every Sox game for the first time in my life it just reinforced what I have always believed. JBJ simply does not make a play a week that other center fielders aren't making. Sorry I just haven't seen that. Even if he did it won't make up for .167' date=' doubtful his defense makes up for hitting .230 IMO.[/quote']

 

He might make more than 1 a week, but your point is still valid.

 

If he saves 1 hit a week, and you count that as a hit for him, he'd get about 1 more hit per about 20 PAs (1 week at batting 8th). That adds .050 to .167 making him a .217 hitter. Maybe he saves a double every now and then, so the OPS goes up more, but we all probably know he needs to hit better than .167 to deserve full time status.

[S5Dewey]

As I suggested earlier somewhere, you can't make a big defensive play unless the opportunity arises, which is quite by chance.

 

The thing about those big plays is that they frequently rob a player of an extra-base hit, which often results in multiple runs being scored. In the very worst case scenario they extend the offense by 1/3 of an inning, and we all know how I feel about giving a team four outs. :-)

[moonslav59]

Tale of the tape as of this morning. Bradley is headed towards being released IMO-if he doesn't accept a demotion to AAA.

 

.167/.510/37 with a WAR of -0.4. Truly horrendous numbers that no amount of defense can make up for.

 

It's not about him accepting or not. It's about another team snagging him up without having to trade anything for him.

[S5Dewey]

Tale of the tape as of this morning. Bradley is headed towards being released IMO-if he doesn't accept a demotion to AAA.

 

.167/.510/37 with a WAR of -0.4. Truly horrendous numbers that no amount of defense can make up for.

 

I doubt it.

[FredLynn]

It's not about him accepting or not. It's about another team snagging him up without having to trade anything for him.

 

With those numbers I doubt any team would "snag him". GMs watch tape. They can see how truly helpless he is at the plate. Maybe a change of scenery will do him some good. I harbor no ill will towards Bradley, but neither do I want him on my team any more. There are alternatives that make us a better club without him.

[Sox75]

These are tortured arguments. Many laughably so.

 

The only questions right now are . . . can the Red Sox carry a lineup with 2 glaring holes JBJ & Vaz? How many game changing plays does JBJ make over JDM? How much worse is out outfield D with Beni in CF, Mookie in RF, & JDM in Left? What is the likelihood that Jackie turns it around? Is his norm, say the last 3 seasons, where he hit roughly .250, an OPS around .790, roughly 15 - 20 HR's per season playing around 130 games per season (barring injury), & knocking in about 60 rbi's, good enough given his great glove? Would it be better to keep JBJ as an outfield sub & late game D replacement, and let JD Martinez play as our full-time LF'r? Is JD MARTINEZ really that bad to where this just can't happen? Is our lineup th a t much better with Mooreland full time every day, Hanley our DH, and JDM in Left?

 

I think it's time to find out. Jackie needs to sit, and Mooreland becomes the 1st baseman, Hanley DH, & JDM becomes our LF'r. No trade. JBJ needs to build value as our sub.

 

All these stats can be constructed in a way to prove anything. Bottom line is th a t with HanRam, Mooreland, & JDM in the meat of this batting order, added to Mookie, Bogie, Pedey, & Beni, this becomes a highly fearsome lineup. I think Vaz turns it on, but Devers 8s becoming a REAL problem. We may need to make a move at 3rd?

 

Perhaps the Sox could package JBJ, swi, & Devers for a real 3rd baseman ?

 

Whatever the case, it is time to give JBJ a good long rest.

[jacksonianmarch]

JBJ would be scooped up in a heartbeat if he hit waivers. He’s got another year or two of control and over the winter had enough stock to return significant value. A team out of contention would snap him up and throw him out in CF for the season then swap him for something of value either at the deadline or over the winter. I also wonder if JBJ might thrive out of the limelight as well.

[moonslav59]

With those numbers I doubt any team would "snag him". GMs watch tape. They can see how truly helpless he is at the plate. Maybe a change of scenery will do him some good. I harbor no ill will towards Bradley, but neither do I want him on my team any more. There are alternatives that make us a better club without him.

 

GMs don't totally judge players on what they did the last week, month or even year.

[moonslav59]

These are tortured arguments. Many laughably so.

 

The only questions right now are . . . can the Red Sox carry a lineup with 2 glaring holes JBJ & Vaz? How many game changing plays does JBJ make over JDM? How much worse is out outfield D with Beni in CF, Mookie in RF, & JDM in Left? What is the likelihood that Jackie turns it around? Is his norm, say the last 3 seasons, where he hit roughly .250, an OPS around .790, roughly 15 - 20 HR's per season playing around 130 games per season (barring injury), & knocking in about 60 rbi's, good enough given his great glove? Would it be better to keep JBJ as an outfield sub & late game D replacement, and let JD Martinez play as our full-time LF'r? Is JD MARTINEZ really that bad to where this just can't happen? Is our lineup th a t much better with Mooreland full time every day, Hanley our DH, and JDM in Left?

 

I think it's time to find out. Jackie needs to sit, and Mooreland becomes the 1st baseman, Hanley DH, & JDM becomes our LF'r. No trade. JBJ needs to build value as our sub.

 

All these stats can be constructed in a way to prove anything. Bottom line is th a t with HanRam, Mooreland, & JDM in the meat of this batting order, added to Mookie, Bogie, Pedey, & Beni, this becomes a highly fearsome lineup. I think Vaz turns it on, but Devers 8s becoming a REAL problem. We may need to make a move at 3rd?

 

Perhaps the Sox could package JBJ, swi, & Devers for a real 3rd baseman ?

 

Whatever the case, it is time to give JBJ a good long rest.

 

Devers isn't going anywhere.

 

Moreland's defense at 1B partially offsets the step down in OF defense with JD in LF and Beni in CF, and the way Moreland is hitting now, it's a no-brainer.

 

We aren't DF'ing JBJ.

 

I could see us trying to trade 2 or 3 of the out-of-options bubble guys, but I'm not expecting anything but long shot prospects in return.

 

Swihart

 

Johnson

 

Hembree

 

(Maybe Wright)

[jad]

These are tortured arguments. Many laughably so.

 

We may need to make a move at 3rd.

 

Perhaps the Sox could package JBJ, swi, & Devers for a real 3rd baseman ?

 

Whatever the case, it is time to give JBJ a good long rest.

 

A real 3 baseman? This is great in theory, but you might bear in mind how the RS did when they had this same problem a couple of years ago. I would guess for these three you would be demanding a .300 hitter, excellent fielder, who hits 30-40 dingers a year. There are 30 to choose from. Who do you have in mind? And if a team had such a mythical star, why would they dump him?

[FredLynn]

JBJ would be scooped up in a heartbeat if he hit waivers. He’s got another year or two of control and over the winter had enough stock to return significant value. A team out of contention would snap him up and throw him out in CF for the season then swap him for something of value either at the deadline or over the winter. I also wonder if JBJ might thrive out of the limelight as well.

 

Great! More power to him. Maybe, as I wrote, a change of scenery would help him. At the very least I want him on the pine on a regular basis, entering games as a late inning defensive replacement or given an occasional start to spell the competent OFs we have. He had his chance here. He failed.

[Spudboy]

JBJ would be scooped up in a heartbeat if he hit waivers. He’s got another year or two of control and over the winter had enough stock to return significant value. A team out of contention would snap him up and throw him out in CF for the season then swap him for something of value either at the deadline or over the winter. I also wonder if JBJ might thrive out of the limelight as well.

 

This should be obvious to all that understand the game.

[Jasonbay44]

Releasing JBJ would be ridiculously stupid.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

He might make more than 1 a week, but your point is still valid.

 

If he saves 1 hit a week, and you count that as a hit for him, he'd get about 1 more hit per about 20 PAs (1 week at batting 8th). That adds .050 to .167 making him a .217 hitter. Maybe he saves a double every now and then, so the OPS goes up more, but we all probably know he needs to hit better than .167 to deserve full time status.

 

As I said I haven't seen a play a week that the other CFs don't make, and yes to Belhorn pointed out it's a matter of opportunity. Still it doesn't change the math, with less than 1 play a week (IMO) even if he hit low .200 that's not enough defense to make up for his lack of offense. And sure he may take away a double, but of course if he hit even half way decent he'd have his own doubles to offset that.

[dgalehouse]

People are getting carried away with this. Exaggerating their opinion of JBJ , both with the positive and negative aspects. The reality is that he is a better hitter than he has shown so far this year. He will have a hot streak and improve his numbers. On the other hand , while very good defensively , he simply does not make a whole lot of plays that other centerfielders don't. That is a myth. He is what he is. Let's not go overboard one way or another. There is no chance of trading him for anything of much value. The idea of releasing him is absurd. In the end , he will be what he always has been. The team has the best record in MLB . Leave well enough alone.

[notin]

It's not about him accepting or not. It's about another team snagging him up without having to trade anything for him.

 

No one can snag him up. He has an option left. Bradley's isn't getting DFA'd or released while he still has an option left.

 

Pedroia might be back in a couple weeks. If he is and there are no other injuries, it is entirely possible Bradley is demoted to Pawtucket to clear space on the 25-man roster for Pedroia.

 

Two problems resolved...

Edited May 13, 2018 by notin

[moonslav59]

No one can snag him up. He has an option left. Bradley's isn't getting DFA'd or released while he still has an option left.

 

Pedroia might be back in a couple weeks. If he is and there are no other injuries, it is entirely possible Bradley is demoted to Pawtucket to clear space on the 25-man roster for Pedroia.

 

Two problems resolved...

 

Thanks for pointing that out. It looks like JBJ could really use some time to work out his issues without hurting the big club.

 

Sending JBJ down could also prolong the decision on Swihart.