DD Curse

[Kimmi]

We raped our farm system for him. We gave up Margot (hitting .250 for SD) and ... and... uh... and... some nobodies.

 

You can be as sarcastic as you want, but that doesn't change the fact that we overpaid for Kimbrel, regardless of how dominant he is.

[a700hitter]

You can be as sarcastic as you want, but that doesn't change the fact that we overpaid for Kimbrel, regardless of how dominant he is.

That is just a fallacious statement. Margot is the only thing of value given up, and he is not setting anything on fire.

[cp176]

You can be as sarcastic as you want, but that doesn't change the fact that we overpaid for Kimbrel, regardless of how dominant he is.

 

Why do you think that we overpaid for him?

[Jasonbay44]

I always thought Margot was a good prospect and still think he'll be good, but I really don't have a problem with the Kimbrel trade. Finding good relief pitchers isn't easy (as we've seen) and our bullpen would be in a terrible situation without his dominance.

[Spudboy]

On the other hand Smith and Thornberg have been busts so far.

 

Why trade for injured goods?

[Wade Boggs]

Why do you think that we overpaid for him?

 

Because your farm system is stripped for next three years on a player who's only going 2 pitch 50 - 60 innings the whole year. It is also a fact ,you have no depth 2go out and get additional pieces for the team.

 

I would have done the deal, but that is the other side of looking at it.

[cp176]

Because your farm system is stripped for next three years on a player who's only going 2 pitch 50 - 60 innings the whole year. It is also a fact ,you have no depth 2go out and get additional pieces for the team.

 

I would have done the deal, but that is the other side of looking at it.

 

i don't feel as though the deal for Kimbrel alone stripped the farm of anything of great significance. I think that you are right that that is how some people look at it though. Depth is of course important, but it looks great in hindsight. The way I look at this particular deal is that we have a closer who every team in baseball would love to have. It is kind of too bad that he is playing for such an overrated bunch.

[Kimmi]

Why do you think that we overpaid for him?

 

First off, believe me when I say that I do not underestimate the value of having a strong pen.

 

That said, I have posted many times that the bullpen is not an area that I would spend a lot of money on. A good pen, with a good closer, can be assembled without spending the type of money and prospects that we spent on Kimbrel.

 

Yes, it makes us all feel good, myself included, when we see Kimbrel come in and dominate the opposing line up like he''s been doing all year. However, most closers are going to get the job done the great majority of the time. They might not do it in as dominating a fashion, but they get the job done. The difference in value between Kimbrel and most other closers is not worth what we paid for Kimbrel.

 

We overpaid twice for Kimbrel - once with prospects and once with money.

[Kimmi]

Because your farm system is stripped for next three years on a player who's only going 2 pitch 50 - 60 innings the whole year. It is also a fact ,you have no depth 2go out and get additional pieces for the team.

 

I would have done the deal, but that is the other side of looking at it.

 

I would not have done this deal, which is not to say that I'm not happy that we have Kimbrel.

 

A single relief pitcher, as good as he may be, just doesn't bring that much value to the team, in comparison to starting pitchers and position players. If we are going to trade the prospects, I'd rather trade them for a good starter or a good position player.

[a700hitter]

First off, believe me when I say that I do not underestimate the value of having a strong pen.

 

That said, I have posted many times that the bullpen is not an area that I would spend a lot of money on. A good pen, with a good closer, can be assembled without spending the type of money and prospects that we spent on Kimbrel.

 

Yes, it makes us all feel good, myself included, when we see Kimbrel come in and dominate the opposing line up like he''s been doing all year. However, most closers are going to get the job done the great majority of the time. They might not do it in as dominating a fashion, but they get the job done. The difference in value between Kimbrel and most other closers is not worth what we paid for Kimbrel.

 

We overpaid twice for Kimbrel - once with prospects and once with money.

Kenley Jansen makes $!9 million/yr. Chapman makes $17.5 million, and Melancon makes more the $15 million. Kimbrel makes less than $13 million for a shorter term contract, and he is better than all of them. We did not overpay with money. As for prospects, Margot, by himself, was not bringing back an elite player other than a closer. There was no future for him on the Red Sox as the killer bees were ahead of him and all young. The other guys sent with Margot are minor league roster filler. You overstate your case against the Kimbrel trade on both fronts -- money and prospects.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a lot of the value of an elite closer shows up in the postseason. And that's the ultimate goal, after all. Theo was certainly willing to pay plenty for a rental of Chapman.

[cp176]

First off, believe me when I say that I do not underestimate the value of having a strong pen.

 

That said, I have posted many times that the bullpen is not an area that I would spend a lot of money on. A good pen, with a good closer, can be assembled without spending the type of money and prospects that we spent on Kimbrel.

 

Yes, it makes us all feel good, myself included, when we see Kimbrel come in and dominate the opposing line up like he''s been doing all year. However, most closers are going to get the job done the great majority of the time. They might not do it in as dominating a fashion, but they get the job done. The difference in value between Kimbrel and most other closers is not worth what we paid for Kimbrel.

 

We overpaid twice for Kimbrel - once with prospects and once with money.

 

Sounds like it goes against your overall philosophy. i think that flexibility is very important when you are building a team as well. i don't think that there is any one right way to do it. Kimbrel for Margot and fillers I think still looks pretty good.

[sk7326]

The bullpen has been fine - and is easy to upgrade ... and to be fair, DD's teams in Detroit made the World Series and multiple playoffs. Given what a crapshoot making the playoffs is - just getting there is the GM accomplishment. (now they played in an easy division most of those years - but who cares) His teams have had good lineups, good rotations. The curse - such as it is - is just not being able to win the 11 games in October/November.

[sk7326]

I think a lot of the value of an elite closer shows up in the postseason. And that's the ultimate goal, after all. Theo was certainly willing to pay plenty for a rental of Chapman.

 

They had the money and a need - and a really loaded team. I think there are times when a premium closer is a luxury a team can afford ... Let's put it this way with closers ... any reliever you can't bring into a truly difficult spot is not worth a ton. While there are differences in relievers - it's not a compliment for a pitcher to require having the bases empty when they enter.

[Bellhorn04]

They had the money and a need - and a really loaded team. I think there are times when a premium closer is a luxury a team can afford ... Let's put it this way with closers ... any reliever you can't bring into a truly difficult spot is not worth a ton. While there are differences in relievers - it's not a compliment for a pitcher to require having the bases empty when they enter.

 

Kimbrel has been used in some of those difficult spots lately, which is good to see.

[sk7326]

Kimbrel has been used in some of those difficult spots lately, which is good to see.

 

In the regular season I am totally with limiting how often he does it - you don't want to ride him to death - but absolutely in certain spots, go right to your best guy. And Kimbrel has been really really good - he has nearly matched his 2016 fWAR already. (he's striking out over 55% of the hitters he faces - which is unsustainably insane)

[dgalehouse]

The idea that closers are overvalued and that we overpaid for Kimbrel is a remnant of the failed " Moneyball " concept. Made famous by the loser known as Billy Beane. Folks , this is big business , not fantasy baseball. If you want to win a championship , a lights out closer is invaluable. What we gave up for Kimbrel was basically peanuts. Those type of prospects are plentiful , and a new supply comes through the pipeline every year.

[a700hitter]

The idea that closers are overvalued and that we overpaid for Kimbrel is a remnant of the failed " Moneyball " concept. Made famous by the loser known as Billy Beane. Folks , this is big business , not fantasy baseball. If you want to win a championship , a lights out closer is invaluable. What we gave up for Kimbrel was basically peanuts. Those type of prospects are plentiful , and a new supply comes through the pipeline every year.

Beane is a loser, and Moneyball was a lot of hype about very little.

[Northern Star]

I don't believe Beane and Moneyball is a black or white 100% fail/100% win. I think there was some value to his approach and his teams contended with low payrolls.

[a700hitter]

I don't believe Beane and Moneyball is a black or white 100% fail/100% win. I think there was some value to his approach and his teams contended with low payrolls.

But in the end, he is a loser.

[Kimmi]

Kenley Jansen makes $!9 million/yr. Chapman makes $17.5 million, and Melancon makes more the $15 million. Kimbrel makes less than $13 million for a shorter term contract, and he is better than all of them. We did not overpay with money. As for prospects, Margot, by himself, was not bringing back an elite player other than a closer. There was no future for him on the Red Sox as the killer bees were ahead of him and all young. The other guys sent with Margot are minor league roster filler. You overstate your case against the Kimbrel trade on both fronts -- money and prospects.

 

And those guys are all overpaid. I can't justify paying that much for any reliever.

[a700hitter]

And those guys are all overpaid. I can't justify paying that much for any reliever.

If the top guys are all paid more than Kimbrel, that is the market. Several Gms have justified paying that type of money for top relievers. And Kimbrel is the best of them at a lower cost. You really don't have a complaint.

[S5Dewey]

And those guys are all overpaid. I can't justify paying that much for any reliever.

 

ALL of these players are overpaid. What's the ML minimum salary now...something in the neighborhood of $1/2MM? That's a lot for playing baseball! But it is what it is.

 

But.. moving right along to the topic at hand of whether closers are overpaid....

What constitutes 'overpaid' when a good closer can mean the difference between making the playoffs and not making them, or winning the WS or not?We have to think that the FO knows the answer to those questions and they've found it in their best interest to pay for closers. For the owners it's a business, remember?

[Northern Star]

But in the end, he is a loser.

 

Who cares? Besides you.

[Northern Star]

Can we just cut our losses with Thornburg. Talking nerve issues now, which is never good.

[Northern Star]

We just grenaded Travis Shaw and a bunch of prospects for someone who may never pitch for us.

[Northern Star]

Wait for it.....

 

Thanks, Dave.

[moonslav59]

Can we just cut our losses with Thornburg. Talking nerve issues now, which is never good.

 

Is the nerve issue related to the mix up over the off season workout regime?

[Bellhorn04]

Smith and Thornburg definitely earn a 'Thanks Dave!'

[sk7326]

The idea that closers are overvalued and that we overpaid for Kimbrel is a remnant of the failed " Moneyball " concept. Made famous by the loser known as Billy Beane. Folks , this is big business , not fantasy baseball. If you want to win a championship , a lights out closer is invaluable. What we gave up for Kimbrel was basically peanuts. Those type of prospects are plentiful , and a new supply comes through the pipeline every year.

 

They are ... the Red Sox won the World Series in 2013 with their 3rd choice for closer, they beat a Cardinals team who won the pennant with its second choice for closer ... the Giants won 3 world series with three different closers - with their 2012 closer getting demoted in 2014.

 

Closers in baseball are the equivalent of running backs in football ... some teams want to spend a ton of money for a hoss ... great. But a lot of teams do well doing what the Patriots do putting no money into it. After all, reliever performance is so volatile that churn is built into things - and there is a bottomless pit of candidates (basically any failed starter - since that's what relievers are).