DD Curse

[moonslav59]

Another possibility that was mentioned was trading for K-Rod, which Detroit did. That also looked pretty good last year and terrible this year.

 

My plan was to trade for K-Rod and sign Clippard for $7M a year.

 

We'd have the same budget but could have traded the 4 prospects for someone else.

 

Remember, Guerra had much higher trade value back then.

 

[Kimmi]

A guy like Sale cannot be had for these kind of prospects. It took top of the line guys like Moncada and Kopech to get Sale. As it stands , the Kimbrel deal was clearly a good one. To still criticize it seems more like stubbornness than it does reality. As for the money , don't worry about it. This is a big market , highly profitable team. It is not a fantasy league.

 

I realize that those prospects alone would not get a guy like Sale. They could have been used as part of a package to get a guy like Sale. Or maybe we could have acquired a #2-3 guy using some of those pieces. Perhaps had we traded for a mid rotation starter instead of Kimbrel, we wouldn't have needed to trade for Pomeranz later. There are all kinds of 'what ifs' that could have taken place with the prospects and money given up for Kimbrel.

 

No, it's not stubbornness because I think we overpaid for Kimbrel. We did overpay for him. I'm not in any way criticizing Kimbrel. I'm thrilled to have him. I'm just against the philosophy of paying an arm and a leg for a relief pitcher. If you're going to give up that much, put a little more into it and get a player who will bring back more value.

[Kimmi]

I wouldn't have made the Kimbrel trade either. I have not with impressed with DD at all. I know Ben Cherington went through a rough stretch--failing to resign Lester, signing Sandoval, trading Lackey, acquiring Craig, signing Castillo--but maybe he would have learned from his mistakes and been a better GM going forward. Looking back at it now, I would have preferred keeping Cherington over the decision to hire DD. It should also be pointed out that some of those Ben Cherington mistakes may have been the responsibility of ownership--failing to pony up the money for Lester, for example.

 

DD's trades with the Red Sox have not been shrewd. He has generally overpaid in most of his moves and he has decimated the farm system. He is responsible for one draft and even though it is too early to reach a definitive conclusion about that draft, the results have not been promising. Groome fell into his lap and I agree with that pick--it was an easy choice--but none of the other picks have played particularly well. Though, again, it is too early to draw definitive conclusions.

 

Margot is a terrific all around player--he is only 22 years old. It is worth noting that the Red Sox traded Logan Allen in that deal as well. Right now, Logan Allen would be the Red Sox's second best pitching prospect after Groome--that's not a small thing. I thought Cashman handled the closer situation much better than DD. Cashman acquired Chapman in the same offseason and gave away B prospects. The Yankees then traded Chapman to the Cubs for Torres, one of the better prospects in the game. In turn, the Yankees resigned Chapman without giving up a draft pick. There is risk here--Chapman cost the Yankees a lot of money, but the Yankees did not part with any valuable chips in their farm system. The Yankees handled the closer situation like a true big market team--the Red Sox did not.

 

What is there to say about the Pomeranz deal? I realize that Espinoza is hurt right now, but he was a valuable trade chip--one of the best pitching prospects in the game and DD traded him for Pomeranz who has been completely useless. That's a bad use of resources. If the Red Sox are going to trade Espinoza, get someone who will help your big league team.

 

OK, Chris Sale has been great, but DD may have traded a future middle of the order bat (at 2b) for 3 years of Sale, not to mention the upside of a guy like Kopech. To justify that trade, not only must Sale perform, but the Red Sox have to compete for a championship and they are playing .500 baseball right now.

 

The Travis Shaw trade (Dubon too) for a guy who was recently moved to the 60-day DL. Not only do the Red Sox need Shaw at 3b, but they could use him at 1b as well--he is better than Moreland. It looks like the Red Sox may have failed to bring in enough offense in the offseason. They traded away their 3b backup plans in case Sandoval didn't work out, i.e., Moncada and Shaw. What is next for DD--trade Devers for some offense, the lack of which DD is directly responsible for, with the hope that the Red Sox can rise above their .500 record and make a run in the playoffs? DD will need to win a World Series over the next 3 seasons to justify these moves. If he comes up short, we might indeed look back at DD's tenure as a total disaster, a time when the GM emptied out the farm system to chase a phantom championship.

 

There are a couple of points here that I disagree with, but overall I very much agree with what you've said. On the whole, I'm strongly against the way that Dombrowski has done business. I would much rather still have Ben.

 

That said, the team we have this year should be performing better than it has been. It should be a contender. It is not Dombrowski's fault, IMO, when players get injured or do not perform up to their abilities.

[Kimmi]

That offseason Falmouth native Steve Cishek signed a two-year, $10 million contract with Seattle and proceeded to post better numbers than Craig Kimbrel in 2016.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cishest01.shtml

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml

 

The pendulum has swung in the other direction this year as Kimbrel has been stellar while an injury has postponed Cishek's season debut (which is expected shortly).

 

I haven't taken the time to look, but relievers like Cishek who have very good seasons are all over the place. The best closers often come out of nowhere. I still believe in the philosophy of acquiring as many arms as you can and see what sticks. Chances are one or two of your guys will step up and have very good seasons for much less cost than what we paid Kimbrel.

[Spudboy]

I haven't taken the time to look, but relievers like Cishek who have very good seasons are all over the place. The best closers often come out of nowhere. I still believe in the philosophy of acquiring as many arms as you can and see what sticks. Chances are one or two of your guys will step up and have very good seasons for much less cost than what we paid Kimbrel.

 

I'm with you on how to construct a pen. I also agree that while it is really cool to see Kimbrel dominate, it is possible and likely to get sufficient high leverage pitching from lesser types. See Koji as an example.

[Kimmi]

I'm with you on how to construct a pen. I also agree that while it is really cool to see Kimbrel dominate, it is possible and likely to get sufficient high leverage pitching from lesser types. See Koji as an example.

 

Exactly. Kimbrel is the best reliever in the game right now. But the difference in value between him and other good closers is not worth the extra cost.

[SinceYaz]

Hembree sucked again today. We need to get Thornburg and Smith healthy soon as our bull pen appears to have some serious holes.

 

Smith seems closer to return than Thornburg ... the latter is still a total mystery to the medical staff, if I read JF correctly. I agree Hembree sucked ... and I am really not happy with myself for saying so. It goes against my grain to knock a Sock ... but the holes you imply have gone from hidden behind ERAs that don't count the true run count. The 9th inning v the Rays had no errors, just horrid pitching.

[a700hitter]

Exactly. Kimbrel is the best reliever in the game right now. But the difference in value between him and other good closers is not worth the extra cost.

The additional cost is way overstated by you. The throwing s*** at the wall theory that you put forth is very risky and it fails to find a dominant closer most of the time.

[harmony]

I haven't taken the time to look, but relievers like Cishek who have very good seasons are all over the place. The best closers often come out of nowhere. I still believe in the philosophy of acquiring as many arms as you can and see what sticks. Chances are one or two of your guys will step up and have very good seasons for much less cost than what we paid Kimbrel.

For what it's worth, Seattle reliever Steve Cishek made his season debut with four pitches Monday night, getting Oakland slugger Khris Davis to ground out to shortstop.

 

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[SinceYaz]

Smith seems closer to return than Thornburg ... the latter is still a total mystery to the medical staff, if I read JF correctly. I agree Hembree sucked ... and I am really not happy with myself for saying so. It goes against my grain to knock a Sock ... but the holes you imply have gone from hidden behind ERAs that don't count the true run count. The 9th inning v the Rays had no errors, just horrid pitching.

 

I stand corrected about Carson Smith, this link indicates he may not be back before July ....

 

http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/04/carson_smith_injury_red_sox_re_1.html

 

Snot.

[cp176]

i just cannot help but think what our current situation might look like without the acquisitions made by DD. What he has done is of course debatable but having a farm system loaded with players that might not ever be significant ml ready guys, as opposed to having the Sales and Kimbrels, would not make me happy. Some of his moves of course look questionable right now primarily because some of them look like damaged goods. One of my concerns is that not one of our younger players who were here when DD arrived seem to show one lick of the leadership skills that we need right now. Betts ? maybe - the rest not so much. It is a piece of the puzzle that is lacking. People can question the significance of good leadership to i guess. I don't.

[Bellhorn04]

The additional cost is way overstated by you. The throwing s*** at the wall theory that you put forth is very risky and it fails to find a dominant closer most of the time.

 

Yeah I'm just a little dubious about totally relying on the s*** at the wall approach myself. I don't remember too many top notch relievers coming out of nowhere for us.

 

The example that people like to toss out there is Koji. But Koji was always a good pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Kimbrel is the best reliever in the game right now. But the difference in value between him and other good closers is not worth the extra cost.

 

Kimbrel's cost of $13 million might turn out to be a bargain. If he keeps pitching like this he might end up with a WAR of 3 or more.

 

And as I keep harping about, it's in the postseason where a closer's value can be the greatest. You can't even put a dollar value on what Foulke did for us in '04, Papelbon in '07 or Koji in '13.

 

Theo gave up a top prospect for Chapman to close out a few postseason wins for the Cubs, basically. He wasn't even needed in the regular season.

[Emp9]

What's Paplebon up to these days? We need somebody for the pen. Can we pick him up to simply throw at Oriole batters for the fun of it then release him around June 5th?

[sk7326]

Exactly. Kimbrel is the best reliever in the game right now. But the difference in value between him and other good closers is not worth the extra cost.

 

Now I'll argue some nuance here. Kimbrel is (or would be) more valuable as he is asked to enter games in 8th innings from time to time. It's not just coming in with the bases empty. (which happens most of the time, but it's a long season and managing wear is okay)

 

My issue is the notion (which I think some of the "pro paying big money" sentiment gets to) that the 9th inning is some sort of magical formula which requires paying a guy a lot of money. For the most part, it is just not that difficult a job.

[mvp 78]

What's Paplebon up to these days? We need somebody for the pen. Can we pick him up to simply throw at Oriole batters for the fun of it then release him around June 5th?

 

Nah, call up Ty Buttrey for that.

[Slasher9]

Exactly. Kimbrel is the best reliever in the game right now. But the difference in value between him and other good closers is not worth the extra cost.

also, no reason to have an elite closer on a .500 team. does it really matter if he "saved" 3 or 4 more games than his replacement when we are a .500 team????

would rather have the prospects & cash to spend......

[mvp 78]

also, no reason to have an elite closer on a .500 team. does it really matter if he "saved" 3 or 4 more games than his replacement when we are a .500 team????

would rather have the prospects & cash to spend......

 

Not sure the Sox or many of you saw them as a .500 team. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18080-2017-Season-Red-Sox-Wins-Projection

[Slasher9]

Not sure the Sox or many of you saw them as a .500 team. http://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18080-2017-Season-Red-Sox-Wins-Projection

 

excellent point. honestly i am less pissed at DD for kimbrell. Espinoza for Pom is what makes me twitch...

[mvp 78]

excellent point. honestly i am less pissed at DD for kimbrell. Espinoza for Pom is what makes me twitch...

 

I agree. I understand why they made the Pom trade, but I don't think it was the correct move especially after him turning out to be damaged goods. Maybe they sold high on a guy who will never make the majors, but they could have spun Espinoza into someone better than Pom imo.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Keith Law ranked the top 25 MLB players who are under 25 years old. Betts is at 6, Benintendi at 11, and Bogaerts at 12. Margot was ranked 16th. That's pretty good for a 22 year old kid. The thing that bothered me about the Kimbrel trade was not necessarily the inclusion of Margot, but the extra sweeteners that were thrown in including, most importantly, Logan Allen.

 

At some point, you have to walk away from a trade when the asking price is too high and find another way to obtain a closer. DD didn't demonstrate the flexibility to do that.

Edited May 16, 2017 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Jasonbay44]

Betts 6th best under 25? Who are the 5 better?

[Jasonbay44]

I agree. I understand why they made the Pom trade, but I don't think it was the correct move especially after him turning out to be damaged goods. Maybe they sold high on a guy who will never make the majors, but they could have spun Espinoza into someone better than Pom imo.

 

This is my issue too. I didn't "like" Pom, but I completely understood it at time. However, once we learned he was injured, we should've canceled that trade so fast

[mvp 78]

Betts 6th best under 25? Who are the 5 better?

 

Correa, Machado, Harper, Lindor, Seager?

[Jack Flap]

I agree. I understand why they made the Pom trade, but I don't think it was the correct move especially after him turning out to be damaged goods. Maybe they sold high on a guy who will never make the majors, but they could have spun Espinoza into someone better than Pom imo.

 

It's easy to see what Dombrowski was trying to do there, but I just can't see Pomeranz ever being consistent or durable enough to be the stud people were trying to paint him as when the deal happened.

 

The fact that we had the chance to reverse the trade after finding out Pom was damaged goods, and chose not to, just adds insult to injury.

 

Keith Law ranked the top 25 MLB players who are under 25 years old. Betts is at 6, Benintendi at 11, and Bogaerts at 12. Margot was ranked 16th. That's pretty good for a 22 year old kid. The thing that bothered me about the Kimbrel trade was not necessarily the inclusion of Margot, but the extra sweeteners that were thrown in including, most importantly, Logan Allen.

 

At some point, you have to walk away from a trade when the asking price is too high and find another way to obtain a closer. DD didn't demonstrate the flexibility to do that.

 

Yeah, none of the parts in that package is all that objectionable individually, IMO, but all together, it's excessive. Allen is a solid pitching prospect who could start eventually, and he was the third piece in that deal.

 

(Meanwhile, despite how hopelessly blocked we're always told Margot was in Boston, there's a thread on the front page asking if Jackie Bradley needs to be traded...I love me some JBJ, but I'm just saying...)

[Jasonbay44]

Correa, Machado, Harper, Lindor, Seager?

 

I would take Mookie over all of them except maybe Harper.

[cp176]

also, no reason to have an elite closer on a .500 team. does it really matter if he "saved" 3 or 4 more games than his replacement when we are a .500 team????

would rather have the prospects & cash to spend......

 

Now that is the kicker isn't it. Without Kimbrel we would suck even worse but if you are going to be a .500 team does it make any difference whether we have him or not? if we are or were going to be any good, it does for sure. It would look like a great deal. If we are going to just suck, then what the hell it would be better to suck and still have all or our prspects and maybe even another draft pick that we could potentially screw up. lol

[jacksonianmarch]

Harper is head, shoulder, knees and toes above Betts. That's not a knock on Betts, but when Harper is healthy, he's the best player in baseball. I like Lindor more than Betts due to similar ceiling offensively, but The position gives him the edge.

[Jasonbay44]

Harper is head, shoulder, knees and toes above Betts. That's not a knock on Betts, but when Harper is healthy, he's the best player in baseball. I like Lindor more than Betts due to similar ceiling offensively, but The position gives him the edge.

 

Bit of an exaggeration regarding Harper and Betts.. also disagree about Harper being best in baseball. Give me Trout easily, most consistent guy in the league.

[Spudboy]

Bit of an exaggeration regarding Harper and Betts.. also disagree about Harper being best in baseball. Give me Trout easily, most consistent guy in the league.

 

I agree. Also, I don't like Harper because he is a snotty little pampered punk.

 

Trout is always the best player.