Sox hitting??

[Larry Cook]

Hanley needs a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse to keep him focused.

 

Unfortunately varitek and Ortiz are not coming back through the door.

 

My hope is we get a first baseman in th offseason that can be a leader in rg clubhouse and focus guys like Hanley,

[moonslav59]

Hanley needs a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse to keep him focused.

 

Unfortunately varitek and Ortiz are not coming back through the door.

 

My hope is we get a first baseman in th offseason that can be a leader in rg clubhouse and focus guys like Hanley,

 

Papi was there for HRam in 2015.

[Slasher9]

And this is the problem with labeling players. I sometimes think that when it comes to statistics we can't see the forest for the trees. Moreland (for example) may be exactly what he was called, a .700-.750 OPS hitter, but he doesn't get that way by having an OPS of ~.725 in each game. He gets there by having streaks where his OPS is ~.900 and other streaks where it's ~.600.

 

It's the same with JBJ. He can go on a tear where his OPS can be >1.20 for a short time and another streak where it's <.400. these streaks exist and no amount of statistics or rationalization is going to do away with that.>

 

I agree that there is no guarantee that a player will get a hit in his next AB based on what he's done in his previous AB's but as I said before, I'd rather take my chances that a player on a hot streak will continue to be hot than take a chance that a player who's 0 for his last 15 is going to break out and get a hit.

 

this post is money.

[Slasher9]

HanRam will be fine. he had some great AB's this weekend. he also is a great presence in the club house. keeps the boys loose. sorry if you thought his numbers at DH would be identical to #34. was never ever ever going to happen.

[Kimmi]

A person can always build a hypothetical case to try to make their point. In your hypothetical situation it would depend on whether or not Holt is 0 for his last 15.

As I've said twice, i'll go with the guy who's got the hot hand rather than gamble that the guy who's 0 for 30 will break out at that moment.

 

It's not a hypothetical case. Basically, you bat your good hitter over your hot hitter.

[Kimmi]

Kimmi, maybe it comes down to how you define a better hitter.

 

If a hypothetical 0 for 30 stretch occurs and your hitter puts a lot of balls in play but is unlucky, then there is room for hope and reason to continue to play. On the other hand if the 0 for 30 occurs with lots of strikeouts and weakly hit pop-ups and ground balls, is this guy really your better hitter?

 

Everyone goes through slumps and tries to make adjustments while in real time opposiing teams attempt to continue the slump. Some players have historys of beinng hot for part of a season and cold after that. How long can the team allow a hitter to be totally non-productive and what measures can be used to bring him out of it? jf has tried the rest and movement in order approach. The schedule grind ihas to wear on these guys so rest seems to make sense. One presumes that the batting coach spends time with and communicates to the player about weakness in plate approach and suggest corrective measures to be worked on in the cage. On the other hand, our backup players have that status for a reason and they are not likely to contribute in a major way when brought in.

 

Its a complex issue to deal with but doing nothing and letting things play out doesn't seem to be a reasonable approach.

 

In terms of determining how a player is going to do going forward, projections trump season to date performance at any point in the season, and they certainly trump a small one week sample. This is the same reason why rearranging a batting order based on who is hot is not the best thing to do.

 

Unless there is an injury or a player is in a prolonged slump and needs a day or two to clear his head, you put your best hitter in the line up over the hot hitter.

 

FTR, I have stated myself to 'ride the hot hand', but a team is really better off riding the better hitter.

[S5Dewey]

It's not a hypothetical case. Basically, you bat your good hitter over your hot hitter.

 

"if you have a guy like Mookie in an 0 for 30 slump versus someone like Holt who is 15 for his last 30,"

 

How is what you said anything but a hypothetical situation?? It's this situation vs. that situation and it's all conjecture as to whether that would ever even happen.

 

Is a "good" hitter a good hitter when he's 0 for 30? I'd offer that for those 30 AB's he's not and I don't think any statistician would argue that.

 

Of course, it's somewhat situational. If it's the bottom of the 9th and we're down one run I'm going to pinch hit with someone with good power regardless of whether he's "hot".

[Kimmi]

I think the Holt discussion is by now pointless. He is the crucial spare part, the only guy who can backup at 2b, SS, or 3b, but he is also now on the bench. He played today because Farrell wanted to give the suddenly cold Nunez and off day, and he probably batted leadoff because Farrell didn't want to force any one else to do. But the point is this was just one game. Farrell wants to keep his hitters in the lineup, no question.

 

I agree.

 

I said in the game thread that I really didn't like Holt batting lead off, but keeping the other hitters in the same spot is a valid point. And as we saw, it worked out.

[Kimmi]

Hanley needs a strong veteran presence in the clubhouse to keep him focused.

 

Unfortunately varitek and Ortiz are not coming back through the door.

 

My hope is we get a first baseman in th offseason that can be a leader in rg clubhouse and focus guys like Hanley,

 

How do you know that Hanley is not focused?

[Kimmi]

"if you have a guy like Mookie in an 0 for 30 slump versus someone like Holt who is 15 for his last 30,"

 

How is what you said anything but a hypothetical situation?? It's this situation vs. that situation and it's all conjecture as to whether that would ever even happen.

 

Is a "good" hitter a good hitter when he's 0 for 30? I'd offer that for those 30 AB's he's not and I don't think any statistician would argue that.

 

Of course, it's somewhat situational. If it's the bottom of the 9th and we're down one run I'm going to pinch hit with someone with good power regardless of whether he's "hot".

 

My bad. I was trying to give you a specific example. Scratch that.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a hot hitter.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a 'clutch' hitter.

 

In other words, don't be ruled by small sample sized data.

[mvp 78]

Bordering on excellent?

 

Until Benintendi becomes better than average, I'm not sure I could call the OF defense excellent.

[Emp9]

Until Benintendi becomes better than average, I'm not sure I could call the OF defense excellent.

 

made an awesome diving JBj/Betts-esque catch the other night. I think he's learning....

[Kimmi]

Until Benintendi becomes better than average, I'm not sure I could call the OF defense excellent.

 

For us stat loving geeks, our OF defense ranks first in DRS at +39 and first in UZR/150 at +9.1. Yes, I realize that a lot of that is Betts, but our OF defense is the best in baseball.

[mvp 78]

For us stat loving geeks, our OF defense ranks first in DRS at +39 and first in UZR/150 at +9.1. Yes, I realize that a lot of that is Betts, but our OF defense is the best in baseball.

 

Betts and JBJ are fantastic. I just wish Beni was showing more improvement out there.

[Kimmi]

Betts and JBJ are fantastic. I just wish Beni was showing more improvement out there.

 

He has made some bone headed plays, but then he'll turn around and make a fantastic play. It's a learning curve.

 

He does have a DRS of +7 this year and a UZR/150 of exactly 0. Not great, but I think he's learning. Will he ever get to JBJ's or Betts' level? Probably not, but those two set a pretty high bar.

[a700hitter]

He has made some bone headed plays, but then he'll turn around and make a fantastic play. It's a learning curve.

 

He does have a DRS of +7 this year and a UZR/150 of exactly 0. Not great, but I think he's learning. Will he ever get to JBJ's or Betts' level? Probably not, but those two set a pretty high bar.

His instincts and routes to balls are not great either. It is not just the boneheaded plays.

[Slasher9]

Betts and JBJ are fantastic. I just wish Beni was showing more improvement out there.

 

at least he is not trending backwards. he def needs more reps on wall balls.

Let me know when he lobs a ball in allowing a runner to tag and move up a base.

[mvp 78]

at least he is not trending backwards. he def needs more reps on wall balls.

Let me know when he lobs a ball in allowing a runner to tag and move up a base.

 

Well, he might not lob the ball back in, but he has had trouble throwing to the correct base which often leads to an advanced runner.

 

He has the athleticism to be a plus plus LFer, but right now he's about average. With all the hype of "3 CFers" I was hoping for Yaz in LF.

[moonslav59]

He has made some bone headed plays, but then he'll turn around and make a fantastic play. It's a learning curve.

 

He does have a DRS of +7 this year and a UZR/150 of exactly 0. Not great, but I think he's learning. Will he ever get to JBJ's or Betts' level? Probably not, but those two set a pretty high bar.

 

The defensive metrics are usually hard on left fielders who play half their games in Fenway, so a zero UZR/150 could actually be a plus. .

[Slasher9]

Well, he might not lob the ball back in, but he has had trouble throwing to the correct base which often leads to an advanced runner.

 

He has the athleticism to be a plus plus LFer, but right now he's about average. With all the hype of "3 CFers" I was hoping for Yaz in LF.

 

Benny is already better.

Yaz Rtot (TZ) his rookie season = 1

Benny Rtot thus far = 6

[S5Dewey]

My bad. I was trying to give you a specific example. Scratch that.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a hot hitter.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a 'clutch' hitter.

 

In other words, don't be ruled by small sample sized data.

 

We will continue to disagree on that. Every sample size is worth something. It's a matter of how it's interpreted.

[Northern Star]

My bad. I was trying to give you a specific example. Scratch that.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a hot hitter.

 

Put a good hitter in the line up over a 'clutch' hitter.

 

In other words, don't be ruled by small sample sized data.

 

But even good hitters go through slumps. I kinda agree with you in theory, but if a guy is belting the hide off the ball, you don't just bench him and go with Cool Hand Luke who can't currently hit the side of a barn. In my opinion it hurts your chances of winning and it sends a bad message.

[moonslav59]

But even good hitters go through slumps. I kinda agree with you in theory, but if a guy is belting the hide off the ball, you don't just bench him and go with Cool Hand Luke who can't currently hit the side of a barn. In my opinion it hurts your chances of winning and it sends a bad message.

 

I don't disagree, but here's a question:

 

Say a normal .750 guy has been hitting .900 for a month. He's "the hot hand."

 

How bad does he have to do, and for how long to decide to bench him?

 

2 for 9 over 2 games?

1 for 9?

3 for 13 over 3 games?

2 for 13?

4 for 17 over 4 games?

3 for 17?

2 for 17?

 

Nothing specific like this, but about what?

 

Just curious.

 

[S5Dewey]

I don't disagree, but here's a question:

 

Say a normal .750 guy has been hitting .900 for a month. He's "the hot hand."

 

How bad does he have to do, and for how long to decide to bench him?

 

2 for 9 over 2 games?

1 for 9?

3 for 13 over 3 games?

2 for 13?

4 for 17 over 4 games?

3 for 17?

2 for 17?

 

Nothing specific like this, but about what?

 

Just curious.

 

 

IMO the most important part of your question is the time that player has been raking. If he's been at it for a month as you say I'd go with the 4 games before I lost confidence in him. OTOH if he's only been hitting well for a week he'd get two days. But that's just me and it's hypothetical. :-)

[moonslav59]

IMO the most important part of your question is the time that player has been raking. If he's been at it for a month as you say I'd go with the 4 games before I lost confidence in him. OTOH if he's only been hitting well for a week he'd get two days. But that's just me and it's hypothetical. :-)

 

Sounds about right.

 

I guess one also has to look at hard outs and cheezy hits as well.

[oldtimer]

I watch the hitting pretty closely during each game and though we only got 5 hits last night there weren't wholesale problems.

 

Nunez has cooled off a little but he is one of our few hitters who will offer at a first pitch over the plate. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he is swinging at high fast balls out of the zone. That said, last night he hit the ball hard to the third baseman and went to right pretty hard. Just bad luck he didn't get on.

 

Betts does tend to take first pitch strike most of the times and does tend to have more swing and miss or swing and foul off than in the past, but last night his pllate discipline was very good and he walked three times and scored 3 I think. he did a good job.

 

Beni hits best when he goes to center or pulls the ball. When he hits to left, he often pops the ball up. He did a good job last night as well.

 

Hanley is a low average hitter these days but he can lose a mistake and is dangerous because of it. His two run homer gave us the lead.

 

Devers has shown the ability to shrug off a poor at bat and come back and put up a good swing. Last night he didn't but the kid can hit.

 

Bogie is still mired in a slump. He did work a couple of walks so that was an improvement, but he takes the first strike down the middle time after time and gets in the hole. He tends to have serious issues seeing sliders down low and away. His swing mechanics are not very good either. I hope he can recover some of his mojo this year but no signs to date. They show him having discussions with the hitting coach after most AB's.

 

Holt was in because Moreland couldn't go. Holt is an experienced hitter but really is below average for most major leaguers in contact and power. We probably have versatile players in the minors who could do as well or better.

 

Vaz is hitting well for a catcher and is fairly hot right now. He makes contact and hits the ball hard. He doesn't have much speed but if he wasn't catching he would be a good pinch hitter. JF is hesitant to use him when Leon catches in case Leon gets injured.

 

JBJ seems too have trouble recognizing some pitches but has certainly done enough and has hit the ball well enough to even be moved down a couple of slots. Bogie could occupy th e 9th slot. We don't have alternatives on the current roster to allow him to sit.

 

All in all, our weak spots are Holt and Bogie. Hope Pedey will come back soon and perhaps we can bring up another versatile infielder.

[Bellhorn04]

I watch the hitting pretty closely during each game and though we only got 5 hits last night there weren't wholesale problems.

 

Nunez has cooled off a little but he is one of our few hitters who will offer at a first pitch over the plate. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he is swinging at high fast balls out of the zone. That said, last night he hit the ball hard to the third baseman and went to right pretty hard. Just bad luck he didn't get on.

 

Betts does tend to take first pitch strike most of the times and does tend to have more swing and miss or swing and foul off than in the past, but last night his pllate discipline was very good and he walked three times and scored 3 I think. he did a good job.

 

Beni hits best when he goes to center or pulls the ball. When he hits to left, he often pops the ball up. He did a good job last night as well.

 

Hanley is a low average hitter these days but he can lose a mistake and is dangerous because of it. His two run homer gave us the lead.

 

Devers has shown the ability to shrug off a poor at bat and come back and put up a good swing. Last night he didn't but the kid can hit.

 

Bogie is still mired in a slump. He did work a couple of walks so that was an improvement, but he takes the first strike down the middle time after time and gets in the hole. He tends to have serious issues seeing sliders down low and away. His swing mechanics are not very good either. I hope he can recover some of his mojo this year but no signs to date. They show him having discussions with the hitting coach after most AB's.

 

Holt was in because Moreland couldn't go. Holt is an experienced hitter but really is below average for most major leaguers in contact and power. We probably have versatile players in the minors who could do as well or better.

 

Vaz is hitting well for a catcher and is fairly hot right now. He makes contact and hits the ball hard. He doesn't have much speed but if he wasn't catching he would be a good pinch hitter. JF is hesitant to use him when Leon catches in case Leon gets injured.

 

JBJ seems too have trouble recognizing some pitches but has certainly done enough and has hit the ball well enough to even be moved down a couple of slots. Bogie could occupy th e 9th slot. We don't have alternatives on the current roster to allow him to sit.

 

All in all, our weak spots are Holt and Bogie. Hope Pedey will come back soon and perhaps we can bring up another versatile infielder.

 

Thanks oldtimer, always enjoy reading these posts.

[Slasher9]

Thanks oldtimer, always enjoy reading these posts.

 

agree 100%

[moonslav59]

He nailed it.

 

On Holt. I'm okay with keeping versatility on the roster, but it is best saved for late game situations where JF would get the flex needed- not starting over Young (DH and HRan to 1B). Starting Holt last night was not a horrible call.

 

What we need is 4 subs not 3, so we need to go with 12 pitchers again (maybe after Fister's start). I don't really want to send Scott down, so I'd look to invent a DL stint for Hembree or trade him for a decent prospect and add Brentz to the 40 man roster.

[SoxnCycles]

He nailed it.

 

On Holt. I'm okay with keeping versatility on the roster, but it is best saved for late game situations where JF would get the flex needed- not starting over Young (DH and HRan to 1B). Starting Holt last night was not a horrible call.

 

What we need is 4 subs not 3, so we need to go with 12 pitchers again (maybe after Fister's start). I don't really want to send Scott down, so I'd look to invent a DL stint for Hembree or trade him for a decent prospect and add Brentz to the 40 man roster.

 

What's the big deal with 12 pitchers? Don't rosters expand to 40 in a couple of weeks?