A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

The budget isn't limitless, but it's big enough that we shouldn't be clutching at our pearls worrying about a cliff.

 

I do think Henry wants to reset the tax this year, so he CAN go significantly over the limit over the next 2-3 years without paying a mega tax and losing draft picks/slot money.

[Slasher9]

the red sox are 100% resetting the tax this season. not a chance they go over.

[S5Dewey]

I do think Henry wants to reset the tax this year, so he CAN go significantly over the limit over the next 2-3 years without paying a mega tax and losing draft picks/slot money.

 

Ya. MLB has figured out a way to control the spending of teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and yes, our Sox. They tried to do it by establishing the LT limit but some teams have apparently decided that the tax is nothing more than an affordable cost of salaries. It's only money.

 

Don't underestimate the effect of losing draft picks. This is not only money, it's the players of the future. Remember that there are potential FA's that don't get signed because the player has a Qualifying Offer and thereby costs the 'new' team not only salary money but also a draft pick. Consequently some of these acquisitions don't happen.

 

Owners understand that they need these draft picks to remain competitive and the loss of the pick and/or the loss of slot money allocation is going to be a big obstacle when establishing salary limits so it's becoming more vital to frequently be under the LT limit.

[S5Dewey]

the red sox are 100% resetting the tax this season. not a chance they go over.

 

It seems that way, but their thinking may change if one of their closest competitors makes a big acquisition late in July. Stay tuned for later news.

[oldtimer]

IMO this business of the budget being limitless is overblown. We as fans and JH as owners see things somewhat differently. We want to win at any cost. Why not? It's not our money!

 

However, we as fans have to realize that MLB is first and foremost a business for the owners and like any business they're going to try to make money at it. I'm the first to admit that I don't know how much money the Red Sox organization makes (or loses) as a whole so I may be talking through my hat somewhat, but JH didn't get rich by making poor investments. My guess is that JH sees owning a team probably as an expensive hobby that he's willing to support but not lose his shirt on. Therefore the budget is limitless only in terms of how much he can spend and still end up with a profit.

 

We'd like to think that the FO is willing to spend whatever it takes to build a championship team but JH is under no obligation to sustain a financial loss in order to appease his fans. Whether we like it or not, at the end of the day it's all somewhat about following the money.

 

JH would have to be naive not to be aware that big money spent on Pablo, Hanley, Craig and Castillo haven't resulted in the expected benefit. He may be asking for more justification these days and by doing so avoiding the big mistakes made in the past. We got Moreland, Young and Leon for reasonable money and they have each been a benefit to the team. The rest are home grown. If I were JH I would be asking for full justification of any big expenditure and put responsibility for mistakes in terms of future employment.

[mvp 78]

the red sox are 100% resetting the tax this season. not a chance they go over.

 

It's smart business. I don't have a problem with it. I think they can afford all the B's in the next few years if they want to and that a "cliff" does not exist.

[mvp 78]

JH would have to be naive not to be aware that big money spent on Pablo, Hanley, Craig and Castillo haven't resulted in the expected benefit. He may be asking for more justification these days and by doing so avoiding the big mistakes made in the past. We got Moreland, Young and Leon for reasonable money and they have each been a benefit to the team. The rest are home grown. If I were JH I would be asking for full justification of any big expenditure and put responsibility for mistakes in terms of future employment.

 

JH opposed the CC signing but still signed off on it. Maybe he should fire himself?

 

The bad contracts on the team now are due to Ben and he was pushed out. Seems like he already figured out that mistakes can affect employment?

[cp176]

For the record - I get the fact that nothing really is limitless and that would include John Henry's budget. I do have to laugh though when so many say so much about something they know so little about. I have no clue what John Henry is thinking when it comes to handling any part of his payroll dealing with any aspect of the Red Sox. Henry's budget is limitless when compared to mine which ain't to0 bad. It is just an expression that I have used and will continue to use. Mr. Henry is no idiot but if he was as concerned about accounting for his $ the way some of you think he is, he likely would never have allowed the people working for him to throw it wastefully around the way they have. What in his past dealings with this franchise would lead anyone to believe that he is now going to be seeking a do over? It really sounds like we have numerous people here who are trying to get him to alter his spending habits. Good luck with that!

[Bellhorn04]

It's smart business. I don't have a problem with it. I think they can afford all the B's in the next few years if they want to and that a "cliff" does not exist.

 

I don't think they can afford all 4 of the B's.

[Slasher9]

he will always spend close to LT. and in recent years he went over in the chase for title. the percentages for the first year or two arent so severe. but now the penalty is harsher so there is a reset that will occur. the fanbase shows up to the games, buys the merch, and watches the games on NESN. we expect our owner to spend up to the LT on payroll. JH knows it. so the budget will always be close to it (or over in some years). but the reset will happen.

[illinoisredsox]

I don't think they can afford all 4 of the B's.

 

Especially since Boras is the agent for 2 of them.

[cp176]

I don't think they can afford all 4 of the B's.

 

Is it imperative that they do?

[Slasher9]

it sure would be fun watching those 4 play together for years to come......

[S5Dewey]

Is it imperative that they do?

 

Now there's a really good question!

 

IMHO they're going to re-sign (not to be confused with resign) two of those B's and my best guess is that two of them will be outfielders and one will be named Benintendi. The second one will be Mookie unless his demands are sky-high, and then the second one will be JBJ - who should go cheaper.

 

Ya, I know that good hitting SS's are hard to find but this one is going to command - and get - a whopping load of money. Enough money so that if they sign him he could be the only one of the four to get signed, and I don't see them letting 2/3 of their OF get away.

 

I hope I'm wrong about that and we can re-sign 3 or (pipe dream) all four. But that's JMO and we're a few years away from that yet. Anything can happen in that time.

 

And I know.. my math doesn't always work out, but I still think XBo is a goner. :-(

Edited June 27, 2017 by S5Dewey

[Behindenemylines]

If the Sox can get their SP on track (Everyone not named Sale) the AL East is theirs for the taking.

[Kimmi]

I think he's going to last here. If he's pitching well everyone will get off his back and he'll be happier here, and if he's not pitching well he's not crazy enough to give up that big contract. I liked the idea of his coming here but I hated the contract.

 

I may be the only one who doesn't have a problem with Price's attitude. As far as I can see he's doing exactly what most of us want to see. When he fails he doesn't blame anyone else, he just says, "I have to do better" - which is true.

 

There's no doubt that the media and the fans are tough here. I often wonder if "we" don't contribute in some way to the continued failure of a player when they not only have to deal with the frustration of the failure they also have to contend with the media's harping on it.

 

I haven't had any issues with Price's attitude. I think he should stay off of Twitter because he does seem to let that stuff get to him, but as far as being a great teammate and owning up to his performance, he is all right in my book.

[moonslav59]

Now there's a really good question!

 

IMHO they're going to re-sign (not to be confused with resign) two of those B's and my best guess is that two of them will be outfielders and one will be named Benintendi. The second one will be Mookie unless his demands are sky-high, and then the second one will be JBJ - who should go cheaper.

 

Ya, I know that good hitting SS's are hard to find but this one is going to command - and get - a whopping load of money. Enough money so that if they sign him he could be the only one of the four to get signed, and I don't see them letting 2/3 of their OF get away.

 

I hope I'm wrong about that and we can re-sign 3 or (pipe dream) all four. But that's JMO and we're a few years away from that yet. Anything can happen in that time.

 

And I know.. my math doesn't always work out, but I still think XBo is a goner. :-(

 

We might be able to keep Betts, Beni and JBJ or Bogey, but not all 4 B's. Even to keep 3, we would probably not be able to replace Porcello with a $20M pitcher. We sure as hell have to keep Sale (as it looks right now). Pom will be a FA too, so Sale, ERod, Wright, _______, _________ scares the bejesus out of me.

[moonslav59]

If the Sox can get their SP on track (Everyone not named Sale) the AL East is theirs for the taking.

 

We can probably win with just one from Price, Porcello or ERod pitching like a solid #2 the rest of the season. If 2 pitch that well, we'll win the east by 5 or more.

[Nick]

We might be able to keep Betts, Beni and JBJ or Bogey, but not all 4 B's. Even to keep 3, we would probably not be able to replace Porcello with a $20M pitcher. We sure as hell have to keep Sale (as it looks right now). Pom will be a FA too, so Sale, ERod, Wright, _______, _________ scares the bejesus out of me.

 

You can't just lump all of them together. Beni is under team control for 3 years after Xander becomes free agent.

 

2019 Pom, Kimbrel (assuming we pick up his option for 18)

2020 Porcello, Sale and Xander

2021 JBJ, Betts

2022 E Rod

2023 Benintendi

 

I'm not going to worry about Beni just yet (Jesus we have five years of control after this year)

 

I would let Porcello go. I might even trade him before 2020. I would sign Pom. My guess is DD will too.

 

I would sign bothe Sale and E Rod. You must have starting pitching.

[moonslav59]

You can't just lump all of them together. Beni is under team control for 3 years after Xander becomes free agent.

 

2019 Pom, Kimbrel (assuming we pick up his option for 18)

2020 Porcello, Sale and Xander

2021 JBJ, Betts

2022 E Rod

2023 Benintendi

 

I'm not going to worry about Beni just yet (Jesus we have five years of control after this year)

 

I would let Porcello go. I might even trade him before 2020. I would sign Pom. My guess is DD will too.

 

I would sign both Sale and E Rod. You must have starting pitching.

 

Beni & probably ERod are both too far away to really project anything- budget wise. You make a good point.

 

I agree on Porcello probably not being re-signed, but he will need to be replaced with someone very good and possibly very very costly. I suppose, if we keep Pom, we can hope for Wright, Johnson and later on Groome to fill his slot for low money, but chances are, we will need to spend big to replace Porcello. We may have to spend pretty big on Pom, if he keeps pitching well this year and next.

 

Losing Pablo & HRam's contracts will help us keep 2 or 3 of Sale, Betts, JBJ and Bogey. If we can somehow keep all 4, I'm not sure we can keep Kimbrel & Pom and stay away from the $20M over the luxury tax where severe non-monetary penalties kick in.

 

Let's go year by year assuming we sign no more non current Sox players long term:

 

After 2017:

$6.5M Young

$5.5M Moreland

$2.0M Abad

Let's assume this money pays for arb raises and a one year player like Moreland- perhaps a good utility player that can play 1B/3B/LF. Money all used up with no long term additions or extensions.

 

After 2018:

$12M Kimbrel

~$7M Pomeranz (last arb estimate)

~$4.5M Kelly (last arb)

~$2.5M Ross (last arb)

Assume Price does not opt out, add raises for option years to Sale (+$6M from where he is now on luxury tax dollar count) and others plus arb raises.

It's hard to assume anything even this far out, but let's say we keep Pom, Kimbrel & Kelly. This alone might put us near the $20M over the luxury tax limit depending on how well these two have done in the next 1.5 seasons. Let's say all the arb raises and option year raises are eaten up by the loss of the one year guy we signed the year before, and the little we might have saved by trading a few other non essential players (maybe even Porcello). HRam's vesting option is also a wild card, but let's say we figure out some way to sign Kimbrel & Pom and keep Porcello for his last year. Let's assume we are maybe $15-19M over the luxury tax and avoid any severe penalties in 2019. (This could be a stretch.)

 

After 2019:

$22M HRam

$21M Porcello

$19M Pablo (we buy out his option)

~$18M Bogey (last arb year)

$12.5M Sale

+ Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge

This is probably too far away to project, but with the $43M "saved by losing Pablo and HRam, we can pay the arb raises to everyone worthy of keeping and maybe keep Sale & Bogey by also letting Porcello, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge go. Maybe we have a little to sign a decent SP'er to $10-14M a year...maybe. It will be super tight to keep Bogey, & Sale and stay below $20M over the limit. Bogey might get a $7-10M raise over his last arb year salary. Sale might get a $20M raise per year.

 

After 2020:

How do we keep JBJ & Betts, if we are already within just a few million from the maximum luxury tax penalty?

It's too far away to project, but it won't be easy. I won't even try, but we might be looking at having to give Betts $12-15M over his last arb salary and JBj $8-10M over his last salary. That's about $20-25M to come up with without having any salary losses to compensate.

 

There's no way we let Betts & JBJ go, so we may have to not sign someone big from the previous years.

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

News from the farm...

 

Brentz hit 2 HRs. He's at 17 now.

 

Pablo 2 for 4 with a run and an RBI

 

Craig 2 for 6

 

Chavis played 3B and went 1 for 3 in a rain shortened game.

 

Devers did not play.

[Nick]

Beni & probably ERod are both too far away to really project anything- budget wise. You make a good point.

 

I agree on Porcello probably not being re-signed, but he will need to be replaced with someone very good and possibly very very costly. I suppose, if we keep Pom, we can hope for Wright, Johnson and later on Groome to fill his slot for low money, but chances are, we will need to spend big to replace Porcello. We may have to spend pretty big on Pom, if he keeps pitching well this year and next.

 

Losing Pablo & HRam's contracts will help us keep 2 or 3 of Sale, Betts, JBJ and Bogey. If we can somehow keep all 4, I'm not sure we can keep Kimbrel & Pom and stay away from the $20M over the luxury tax where severe non-monetary penalties kick in.

 

Let's go year by year assuming we sign no more non current Sox players long term:

 

After 2017:

$6.5M Young

$5.5M Moreland

$2.0M Abad

Let's assume this money pays for arb raises and a one year player like Moreland- perhaps a good utility player that can play 1B/3B/LF. Money all used up with no long term additions or extensions.

 

After 2018:

$12M Kimbrel

~$7M Pomeranz (last arb estimate)

~$4.5M Kelly (last arb)

~$2.5M Ross (last arb)

Assume Price does not opt out, add raises for option years to Sale (+$6M from where he is now on luxury tax dollar count) and others plus arb raises.

It's hard to assume anything even this far out, but let's say we keep Pom, Kimbrel & Kelly. This alone might put us near the $20M over the luxury tax limit depending on how well these two have done in the next 1.5 seasons. Let's say all the arb raises and option year raises are eaten up by the loss of the one year guy we signed the year before, and the little we might have saved by trading a few other non essential players (maybe even Porcello). HRam's vesting option is also a wild card, but let's say we figure out some way to sign Kimbrel & Pom and keep Porcello for his last year. Let's assume we are maybe $15-19M over the luxury tax and avoid any severe penalties in 2019. (This could be a stretch.)

 

After 2019:

$22M HRam

$21M Porcello

$19M Pablo (we buy out his option)

~$18M Bogey (last arb year)

$12.5M Sale

+ Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge

This is probably too far away to project, but with the $43M "saved by losing Pablo and HRam, we can pay the arb raises to everyone worthy of keeping and maybe keep Sale & Bogey by also letting Porcello, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge go. Maybe we have a little to sign a decent SP'er to $10-14M a year...maybe. It will be super tight to keep Bogey, & Sale and stay below $20M over the limit. Bogey might get a $7-10M raise over his last arb year salary. Sale might get a $20M raise per year.

 

After 2020:

How do we keep JBJ & Betts, if we are already within just a few million from the maximum luxury tax penalty?

It's too far away to project, but it won't be easy. I won't even try, but we might be looking at having to give Betts $12-15M over his last arb salary and JBj $8-10M over his last salary. That's about $20-25M to come up with without having any salary losses to compensate.

 

There's no way we let Betts & JBJ go, so we may have to not sign someone big from the previous years.

 

 

 

 

Good stuff Moon. Arbitration raises are getting to be a big component for us. I guess it's a price you pay for having young talent. But it's still better than paying 'full' price.

[S5Dewey]

For all the hand-wringing that took place over the winter regarding how we were going to "replace" Papi things are looking pretty good. As expected, this team's run production is down but DD's attitude appeared to be that while we couldn't replace his offense we could still win games with solid pitching and defense.

 

We're currently 4th in the AL in both ERA and WHIP and the BP is among the best in the league.

 

In addition, other than 3B our defense is as good as anyone's and better than most. We've committed 50 errors but 17 of them have been at 3B. No surprise there! While it's hard to predict how many errors a "real" 3B would make, he remaining 33 (+ a reasonable number from 3B) would still probably make us in the top 5 in baseball. (Miami is 5th with 38.)

 

And we're leading the AL East in spite of the fact that we're 3rd in the division in runs scored.

 

So... in spite of the fact that we're not scoring as many runs as last year our balance between pitching, defense, and offense is carrying the team. Maybe this DD guy knows what he's doing after all!

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not complaining, but the skids by the Yanks and O's have really made things look better.

[Nick]

For all the hand-wringing that took place over the winter regarding how we were going to "replace" Papi things are looking pretty good. As expected, this team's run production is down but DD's attitude appeared to be that while we couldn't replace his offense we could still win games with solid pitching and defense.

 

We're currently 4th in the AL in both ERA and WHIP and the BP is among the best in the league.

 

In addition, other than 3B our defense is as good as anyone's and better than most. We've committed 50 errors but 17 of them have been at 3B. No surprise there! While it's hard to predict how many errors a "real" 3B would make, he remaining 33 (+ a reasonable number from 3B) would still probably make us in the top 5 in baseball. (Miami is 5th with 38.)

 

And we're leading the AL East in spite of the fact that we're 3rd in the division in runs scored.

 

So... in spite of the fact that we're not scoring as many runs as last year our balance between pitching, defense, and offense is carrying the team. Maybe this DD guy knows what he's doing after all!

 

Plus Betts offensively has not maxed out this year. He'll get hot and carry us for few weeks. And not sure what to make of Hanley. I'm guessing he's 'hurt' more than we know. Just my guess. He has incentive to play to secure 2019 contract. Something is off.

[Nick]

Is this typical?

 

Unavailable

J. Rutledge 7-day DL

B. Johnson 10-day DL

E. Rodriguez 10-day DL

R. Ross Jr. 10-day DL

P. Sandoval 10-day DL

R. Elias 60-day DL

M. Hernandez 60-day DL

B. Holt 60-day DL

C. Smith 60-day DL

T. Thornburg 60-day DL

S. Wright 60-day DL

Notes

*T. Thornburg: Thoracic outlet surgery 6/16. Out for year

*C. Smith: 6/16: Dealing with shoulder inflammation.

*R. Ross Jr.: On DL (retro to 5/19) with left elbow inflammation

*R. Elias: On 60-day DL with right oblique strain

*B. Holt: Rehab assignment stopped due to vertigo symptoms.

*P. Sandoval: On 10-day DL (6/20) with left inner ear infection.

*J. Rutledge: On 7-day concussion DL (6/24)

*M. Hernandez: 5/26: Season-ending surgery on left shoulder

*E. Rodriguez: On DL with right knee injury (6/2)

*S. Wright: Had season-ending left knee surgery May 8.

*B. Johnson: On DL with left shoulder impingement (6/15

[oldtimer]

Beni & probably ERod are both too far away to really project anything- budget wise. You make a good point.

 

I agree on Porcello probably not being re-signed, but he will need to be replaced with someone very good and possibly very very costly. I suppose, if we keep Pom, we can hope for Wright, Johnson and later on Groome to fill his slot for low money, but chances are, we will need to spend big to replace Porcello. We may have to spend pretty big on Pom, if he keeps pitching well this year and next.

 

Losing Pablo & HRam's contracts will help us keep 2 or 3 of Sale, Betts, JBJ and Bogey. If we can somehow keep all 4, I'm not sure we can keep Kimbrel & Pom and stay away from the $20M over the luxury tax where severe non-monetary penalties kick in.

 

Let's go year by year assuming we sign no more non current Sox players long term:

 

After 2017:

$6.5M Young

$5.5M Moreland

$2.0M Abad

Let's assume this money pays for arb raises and a one year player like Moreland- perhaps a good utility player that can play 1B/3B/LF. Money all used up with no long term additions or extensions.

 

After 2018:

$12M Kimbrel

~$7M Pomeranz (last arb estimate)

~$4.5M Kelly (last arb)

~$2.5M Ross (last arb)

Assume Price does not opt out, add raises for option years to Sale (+$6M from where he is now on luxury tax dollar count) and others plus arb raises.

It's hard to assume anything even this far out, but let's say we keep Pom, Kimbrel & Kelly. This alone might put us near the $20M over the luxury tax limit depending on how well these two have done in the next 1.5 seasons. Let's say all the arb raises and option year raises are eaten up by the loss of the one year guy we signed the year before, and the little we might have saved by trading a few other non essential players (maybe even Porcello). HRam's vesting option is also a wild card, but let's say we figure out some way to sign Kimbrel & Pom and keep Porcello for his last year. Let's assume we are maybe $15-19M over the luxury tax and avoid any severe penalties in 2019. (This could be a stretch.)

 

After 2019:

$22M HRam

$21M Porcello

$19M Pablo (we buy out his option)

~$18M Bogey (last arb year)

$12.5M Sale

+ Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge

This is probably too far away to project, but with the $43M "saved by losing Pablo and HRam, we can pay the arb raises to everyone worthy of keeping and maybe keep Sale & Bogey by also letting Porcello, Thornburg, Holt & Rutledge go. Maybe we have a little to sign a decent SP'er to $10-14M a year...maybe. It will be super tight to keep Bogey, & Sale and stay below $20M over the limit. Bogey might get a $7-10M raise over his last arb year salary. Sale might get a $20M raise per year.

 

After 2020:

How do we keep JBJ & Betts, if we are already within just a few million from the maximum luxury tax penalty?

It's too far away to project, but it won't be easy. I won't even try, but we might be looking at having to give Betts $12-15M over his last arb salary and JBj $8-10M over his last salary. That's about $20-25M to come up with without having any salary losses to compensate.

 

There's no way we let Betts & JBJ go, so we may have to not sign someone big from the previous years.

 

 

 

 

You ought to work for the Red Sox front office.

[cp176]

You ought to work for the Red Sox front office.

 

He is too tight with Mr. Henry's money. Our owner doesn't mind spending some millions of his billions.

[moonslav59]

For all the hand-wringing that took place over the winter regarding how we were going to "replace" Papi things are looking pretty good. As expected, this team's run production is down but DD's attitude appeared to be that while we couldn't replace his offense we could still win games with solid pitching and defense.

 

We're currently 4th in the AL in both ERA and WHIP and the BP is among the best in the league.

 

In addition, other than 3B our defense is as good as anyone's and better than most. We've committed 50 errors but 17 of them have been at 3B. No surprise there! While it's hard to predict how many errors a "real" 3B would make, he remaining 33 (+ a reasonable number from 3B) would still probably make us in the top 5 in baseball. (Miami is 5th with 38.)

 

And we're leading the AL East in spite of the fact that we're 3rd in the division in runs scored.

 

So... in spite of the fact that we're not scoring as many runs as last year our balance between pitching, defense, and offense is carrying the team. Maybe this DD guy knows what he's doing after all!

 

With Lin and Marrero, our defense at 3B is now pretty good. Our offense there is struggling to get above a .350 OPS over the last month or so.

[moonslav59]

You ought to work for the Red Sox front office.

 

Is there an opening?

 

I'd gladly come out of retirement as a consultant!