A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Jasonbay44]

The Crawford signing I wasn't thrilled with, but I was happy for the reason of "at least he isn't on the Rays and will stop killing us", but I never imagined he'd be as bad as he was with us.

 

The Pablo signing I hated the moment it happened, and the Hanley signing I was confused because they said he was playing OF, and that was a concern as Hanley was never a good fielder, but I was always a big Hanley fan and had always hoped we'd get him back (however this was when he was still a SS lol), so I wasn't mad at all.

[oldtimer]

Well, another game in the books. the Sox must have been very tired after getting in from Texas at 6 AM and then having to play at 7 PM. We had our ace on the mound but the Rays are a decent hitting team with several power hitters. To win we neede to hit but didn't do it and took the loss. We also had a bad start with Bogaerts getting hit on the hand and having to sit out the game. Good that there was no fracture, but he may well have to sit out a game or two more.

 

The good was Sale went 7 innings and gave us a chance. The bad is that we looked weak in a number of areas.

 

Base runnning: Beni got a bad jump trying to steal second and was out easily, erasing one of our base runners. Later, Lin tried to take third on a ball in the dirt and was thrown out erasing another. I didn't get the concept of running while in scoring position to gain a slight advantage. We needed smart base running and didn't get it.

 

Fielding: I thought Marrero didn't make a very meaningful attempt on a double down the line by Longoria. He might have had a play but his attempt was weak. Later, a ball over the SS went to the fence for a double and Beni's play was strange, letting it go to the wall.

 

Hitting: There is a reason we have a separate thread on hitting. After a 3 hit performance in the last game in Texas, which might be the result of a stellar pitching performance (I didn't see the qame), to go to a 5 hit performance with 4 walks wasn't all that strong either. We seem to get into a funk with some of our key players taking the collar. Mookie with 3 popups and a srikeout and one other weak grou nder as I recall. Hanley not putting up resistance, taking the pitches over the plate and swinging at many bad ones. Moreland not hitting. In addition, we were penalized by having to play Marrero but he actually delivered the rbi on a fly ball and got an infield hit. Pedroia got two good hits, Beni one and Leon one. Lin was selective and got on base a couple of times. We simply need to get more out of our top hitters to be competitive. Hope tomorrow will be better and we don't lapse into a funk as we had been in earlier in the year.

 

If Bogaerts has to sit, we will have Lin and Marrero in the lineup and no real infield sub. Would we have to use Vazquez at third in the even one of our infielders can't continue?

[a700hitter]

Farrell needs to stop trying to ignite the offense "with our athleticism". We are losing too many base runners. It is ridiculous. Benitendi is not a base stealer. Not only was his jump terrible tonight, but he was stumbling and going into his slide about 20 feet from the base.

 

If Bogey misses any time, that will hurt the run production. There is no getting around that.

[notin]

Benitendi is not a base stealer. Not only was his jump terrible tonight, but he was stumbling and going into his slide about 20 feet from the base.

 

If Bogey misses any time, that will hurt the run production. There is no getting around that.

 

9 steals in 11 attempts (82%) is pretty damn good for someone who isn't a base stealer...

[a700hitter]

9 steals in 11 attempts (82%) is pretty damn good for someone who isn't a base stealer...

Now it is 9 out of 12 (75%), and I hope that is his ending stat line. I would prefer that he runs the bases intelligently and lets the hitters advance him. He is not that fast. Edited July 7, 2017 by a700hitter

[moonslav59]

I'd rather not see us run into as many outs as we did in the first half either.

[Maxbialystock]

Well, another game in the books. the Sox must have been very tired after getting in from Texas at 6 AM and then having to play at 7 PM. We had our ace on the mound but the Rays are a decent hitting team with several power hitters. To win we neede to hit but didn't do it and took the loss. We also had a bad start with Bogaerts getting hit on the hand and having to sit out the game. Good that there was no fracture, but he may well have to sit out a game or two more.

 

The good was Sale went 7 innings and gave us a chance. The bad is that we looked weak in a number of areas.

 

Base runnning: Beni got a bad jump trying to steal second and was out easily, erasing one of our base runners. Later, Lin tried to take third on a ball in the dirt and was thrown out erasing another. I didn't get the concept of running while in scoring position to gain a slight advantage. We needed smart base running and didn't get it.

 

Fielding: I thought Marrero didn't make a very meaningful attempt on a double down the line by Longoria. He might have had a play but his attempt was weak. Later, a ball over the SS went to the fence for a double and Beni's play was strange, letting it go to the wall.

 

Hitting: There is a reason we have a separate thread on hitting. After a 3 hit performance in the last game in Texas, which might be the result of a stellar pitching performance (I didn't see the qame), to go to a 5 hit performance with 4 walks wasn't all that strong either. We seem to get into a funk with some of our key players taking the collar. Mookie with 3 popups and a srikeout and one other weak grou nder as I recall. Hanley not putting up resistance, taking the pitches over the plate and swinging at many bad ones. Moreland not hitting. In addition, we were penalized by having to play Marrero but he actually delivered the rbi on a fly ball and got an infield hit. Pedroia got two good hits, Beni one and Leon one. Lin was selective and got on base a couple of times. We simply need to get more out of our top hitters to be competitive. Hope tomorrow will be better and we don't lapse into a funk as we had been in earlier in the year.

 

If Bogaerts has to sit, we will have Lin and Marrero in the lineup and no real infield sub. Would we have to use Vazquez at third in the even one of our infielders can't continue?

 

Meh. The weak hitting last night was consistent with this season plus the short sleep plus the fact that the Rays pitcher was making his 6th quality start in 6 starts this year. Marrero in for Bogaerts, who is in a slump anyway, turned out to be a plus.

 

Marrero not fielding a double? Are you serious? What about JBJ trying to throw that guy out getting back to 1b which led to a 2 base error? Now that was bonehead defense. Terrible attempt by Benintendi to steal 2d, granted, but why not try it in a game when getting runs was always going to be a problem? Beni is quick, just inexperienced or maybe not good at getting that essential quick start jump.

 

My frustration during the game was our guys unwillingness to swing at first pitch fast ball strikes, then later swinging at pitches out of the zone. That two run dinger by the Rays was on a first pitch fast ball by Sale in the geometric center of the strike zone. Plus I think Eck was saying last night that our guys seem to have trouble reading pitches, which means they don't swing at hittable pitches and do swing at pitches outside the strike zone.

 

All of the above notwithstanding, last night was in reality a golden opportunity for Tampa which they seized. Our guys, including Sale, were tired, and Tampa has a good hitting lineup this year, rested, and last night probably their best starter (6 of 6 quality starts). I gripe about our hitting, but it was bound to happen last night.

 

Tampa is a tough out at home. I will be happy with a 2-2 split in this series.

[moonslav59]

My frustration during the game was our guys unwillingness to swing at first pitch fast ball strikes, then later swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Agreed. We have to keep opposing pitchers honest by swinging at a few first pitches.

 

Pedey's gotten away with it just about his whole career, but I'm not sure most others can.

[Maxbialystock]

My frustration during the game was our guys unwillingness to swing at first pitch fast ball strikes, then later swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Agreed. We have to keep opposing pitchers honest by swinging at a few first pitches.

 

Pedey's gotten away with it just about his whole career, but I'm not sure most others can.

 

I have seen him swing at first pitches, but not often. He gets away with not swinging because he has a small strike zone, good read on pitches, and good hand-eye coordination.

 

I agree too that our guys need to swing often enough to "keep them honest."

[moonslav59]

I have seen him swing at first pitches, but not often. He gets away with not swinging because he has a small strike zone, good read on pitches, and good hand-eye coordination.

 

I agree too that our guys need to swing often enough to "keep them honest."

 

Pedey is legendary for rarely swinging at first pitches.

 

It works for him.

 

I don't think it works as well for other Sox hitters.

 

That's my point.

 

(I wouldn't mind seeing Pedey swing at more first pitches as well.)

 

[oldtimer]

Pedey is legendary for rarely swinging at first pitches.

 

It works for him.

 

I don't think it works as well for other Sox hitters.

 

That's my point.

 

(I wouldn't mind seeing Pedey swing at more first pitches as well.)

 

 

Hanley took first pitches down the middle last night and then swung at those outside the strike zone. The approach of being unpredictable makes the pitcher wary of just giving a fastball down the middle. Maybe the first time you see a pitcher in the game the players are looking for what the pitcher has but with multiple at bats, that rationale doesn't make a lot of sense.

[moonslav59]

Hanley took first pitches down the middle last night and then swung at those outside the strike zone. The approach of being unpredictable makes the pitcher wary of just giving a fastball down the middle. Maybe the first time you see a pitcher in the game the players are looking for what the pitcher has but with multiple at bats, that rationale doesn't make a lot of sense.

 

It never makes sense, if you make a habit of it, and the opponents use it against you.

[Nick]

It never makes sense, if you make a habit of it, and the opponents use it against you.

 

 

On the other hand, we've had success over the years making starters throw tons of pitches to get them out of there. I'm not sure if it's as critical taking pitches against relievers unless they are having trouble throwing strikes. (Barnes comes to mind for us).

[Nick]

Very good day for Red Sox.

 

Beat Rays.

Toronto lost.

Orioles lost.

Yankees are down 4-9 in 8th.

 

I'm impressed with Lin. He has a quick bat. Good glove. Lin and Marrero are better defenders than Pablo at 3B. Key hit was Lin's, then Marrero's sacrifice. It's always good to score first. (And score that magical 4 runs)

Looking at other box scores, despite all the consternation, our pitching is superior to those of our division rivals.

 

For now at least, Lin and Marrero are very productive.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

Boston Red Sox sign 4th-round draft pick Jake Thompson, a righty who went 14-1 for Oregon State

 

 

The Red Sox signed fourth-round draft pick Jake Thompson who went 14-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 20 outings (19 starts) for Oregon State this spring.

 

The Red Sox selected him 131st overall when MLBPipeline.com ranked him the No. 71 prospect entering the draft. Baseball America ranked him the No. 83 prospect.

 

He has been assigned to Short Season Lowell.

 

I believe today was the deadline.

[moonslav59]

On the other hand, we've had success over the years making starters throw tons of pitches to get them out of there. I'm not sure if it's as critical taking pitches against relievers unless they are having trouble throwing strikes. (Barnes comes to mind for us).

 

You can swing at a few more first pitches and still drive the pitch counts up. Just enough to keep pitchers honest.

 

Plus, with deeper and better pens these days, maybe keeping some starters out there longer is better than facing some teams' 6th or 7th inning RP'ers. The league has adjusted to situation, so we need to adjust to the adjustment.

[moonslav59]

Interesting to see that despite their win tonight, the Cubs are just barely closer to first place than last place in the NL Central.

[moonslav59]

Doubleheader for the Sea Dogs...

 

Holt 1 for 2 (2 BBs)

 

Devers 2 for 5 (1 BB)

 

Chavis 3 for 7

 

 

[Spudboy]

Boston Red Sox sign 4th-round draft pick Jake Thompson, a righty who went 14-1 for Oregon State

 

 

The Red Sox signed fourth-round draft pick Jake Thompson who went 14-1 with a 1.96 ERA in 20 outings (19 starts) for Oregon State this spring.

 

The Red Sox selected him 131st overall when MLBPipeline.com ranked him the No. 71 prospect entering the draft. Baseball America ranked him the No. 83 prospect.

 

He has been assigned to Short Season Lowell.

 

I believe today was the deadline.

 

He should be around for the cliff!

[a700hitter]

he should be around for the cliff!

lol!!!

[notin]

Now it is 9 out of 12 (75%), and I hope that is his ending stat line. I would prefer that he runs the bases intelligently and lets the hitters advance him. He is not that fast.

 

 

If he isn't that fast, a 75% success rate makes him an outstanding base stealer...

[Bellhorn04]

He should be around for the cliff!

 

We are getting busy assembling The 2021 Boston Cliff Divers LOL

[Nick]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/29/searching-for-a-spark/

 

Good read on Sox lack of power (yeah I know they hit 3 last night). Going forward (2018) we need better power production from 3B, 1B and DH. Devers will take care of 3B. Hanley needs to get healthy.

 

Our starting pitching and bullpen can only get better. (Porcello can anti-regress from his regression year). We just need some depth. Hopefully Wright can return to his early 2016 form.

Smith, Thornburg and plethora of viable options in our farm system bode well for the pen next year. Final contract year for Kimbrel.

 

Bullpen...FA year

 

Kimbrel 2019

Kelly 2019

Thornburg 2020

Smith 2021

Barnes 2022

Hembree 2022

Scott 2023

 

Starters

 

Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year, 4 yr $80M should do it)

C Sale 2020

Porcello 2020

Wright 2021

Ed Rod 2022

D Price 2023

 

We need 1 starter to emerge from the farm by 2020, that's not asking for much is it?

 

Flip side of having so many young players is that arbitration cost will get extremely high over next three years. But with luxury tax reset this year, Sox will not be afraid to break through it next few years. We just need to get the $40M off the books in 2020 with Hanley and Pablo. Throw in another $20M for Porcello.

 

$60M to sign Sale and Xander plus 'hangover' from whatever it took to sign Kimbrel the previous year. Then, how do you sign Betts and JBJ? We may need to rotate DH position by

regulars and utility players.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Good read on Sox lack of power (yeah I know they hit 3 last night). Going forward (2018) we need better power production from 3B, 1B and DH.

Devers will take care of 3B.

 

Devers will likley play 3B for the next few years, but we can only hope he "takes care" of a bad Situation we've had since Beltre was here.

 

Hanley needs to get healthy.

 

Yes, probably, but there is hope with Travis taking over for Moreland, and maybe Chavis or Ockimey becoming our next DH. Maybe that's too much to hope for with 3 positions needing future help.

 

Our starting pitching and bullpen can only get better. (Porcello can anti-regress from his regression year). We just need some depth. Hopefully Wright can return to his early 2016 form.

 

It can get worse. Look what happened to Porcello this year. The same could happen to others next year or the year after.

 

 

Smith, Thornburg and plethora of viable options in our farm system bode well for the pen next year. Final contract year for Kimbrel.

 

Bullpen...FA year

 

Kimbrel 2019

Kelly 2019

Thornburg 2020

Smith 2021

Barnes 2022

Hembree 2022

Scott 2023

 

Starters

 

Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year)

C Sale 2020

Porcello 2020

Wright 2021

Ed Rod 2022

D Price 2023

 

We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit.

 

 

We need 1 starter to emerge by 2020, that's not asking for much is it?

 

It might be, when you have just one prospect who has a good chance: Groome.

We could hope Wright takes Porcello's slot, but we'll still need a solid #6 starter, in case of emergency.

 

 

Flip side of having so many young players is that arbitration cost will get extremely high over next three years. But with luxury tax reset this year, Sox will not be afraid to break through it next couple of years.

 

Wecan go over, but not by more than $20M or we getting non-monetary penalties. We should be okay for 2018, especially if Devers, Travis and/or Swihart can replace Moreland & Young's roster slots. 2019 looks doable, but arb costs are the wild card.

 

 

We just need to get the $40M off the books in 2020 with Hanley and Pablo. Throw in another $20M for Porcello.

 

$60M seems like a lot toco me off the books after the 2019 season, but it's not that simple.

 

We need to pay Sale ($13.5M to $33.5m?)

 

We need to pay or replace Bogey at SS for 2020 (maybe his final arb cost might be $15M, and he may want over $25M a year).

 

THornburg is up, too.

 

Just keeping these two alone will likely eat up over half of the available $60M.

 

Even if Porcello does not do well from now until 2020,w e'll still need to replace him or hope Wright/Groome can fill in, and this is assuming we keep Pom and he is staying healthy and doing well. Lots of assumptions as you look farther and farther ahead.

 

Now, count the projected massive arb raises for 2020...

 

Betts- final arb year (3 of 3)

JBJ- final arb year (4 of 4)

Plus, Vazquez, Wright, Smith & Leon have their last arbs.

 

i think we can probably squeeze under the $20M penalty penalty limit until we reach 2021, but only if we do not add anymore big contracts from outside the system.

 

Getting help from Wright and/or Groome may be essential.

 

Getting help from Devers is just about mandatory.

 

Getting help from 2 of these players may also be essential: Travis, Chavis, Ockimey, Dalbec.

 

This may be hoping for too much.

 

 

[notin]

It's also unrealistic to think all those players will still be in Boston in 2020. Trades happen, especially on teams run by Dave Dombrowski.

 

Porcello may be a tradable bargain at some point. Bogaerts or Bradley may be dealt. A lot can and will happen. How many players from the 2014 Red Sox are still in the same uniform?

[moonslav59]

http://boston.locals.baseballprospec...g-for-a-spark/

 

Its' easy to say, "Call up Devers, even if just for 2 weeks." That's not really for us to say, though.

 

I'm okay with putting HanRam on the DL, but he seems to be showing signs of heating up some.

 

I've always said Young MUST START vs ALL LH'd STARTERS, and these splits vs LHPS show why:

 

vs LHPs:

 

.612 Moreland

.636 Beni

(Although YOung's slow start vs LHPs and JBJ's surprising numbers vs LHPS-1.100- makes me wonder if I'm over blowing the split platoon argument.)

 

Note: Travis is at .967 vs LHPS in a small sample size of 40 PAs.

 

I could see keeping HRam off the dL and platooning Moreland-Travis and Beni-Young might be the best strategy.

 

[Nick]

We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit. Moon

We can survive without Kelly and Ross. Bullpen is an easy fix. We're turning 80% of minor league starters into relievers. Smith and Thornburg eventually will get healthy. I also like to think that by 2020 someone other than Groome will come to surface from current crop of college pitchers in our system.

 

I agree with you on HanRam.

 

Stats don't always lie....platooning is not a bad idea except for JBJ. We need his D in CF and he hitting lefthanders well.

 

It's a long season. A guy like Moreland needs to sit from time to time just to keep fresh.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

HanRam definitely seems to be heating up. He had a monster second half last year. Cross your fingers for another.

[Fisk]

We have a 4.5 game lead in the division without anyone in the lineup having a great year, this bodes very well.

[a700hitter]

We have a 4.5 game lead in the division without anyone in the lineup having a great year, this bodes very well.

It can also be looked at that we have only 4 1/2 game lead despite that the Yankees are in a 2-3 week tailspin.