A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[moonslav59]

Wonder if we could have gotten Quintana for Espinoza, Chavis, Travis and Beeks.

[mvp 78]

Wonder if we could have gotten Quintana for Espinoza, Chavis, Travis and Beeks.

 

Probably. I'd rather have Sale though and I bet Espinoza would have been used in that trade instead.

[moonslav59]

Probably. I'd rather have Sale though and I bet Espinoza would have been used in that trade instead.

 

Then, would Kopech, Chavis, Travis and Beeks have been enough.

 

I'm not talking either-or with Sale & Q. I'm talking both.

[mvp 78]

Then, would Kopech, Chavis, Travis and Beeks have been enough.

 

I'm not talking either-or with Sale & Q. I'm talking both.

 

Maybe? Cubs gave up a prospect like Devers and another top 100 guy to bring Q in. The Cubs trade seems to be better than Kopech, Chavis and Travis.

[moonslav59]

Maybe? Cubs gave up a prospect like Devers and another top 100 guy to bring Q in. The Cubs trade seems to be better than Kopech, Chavis and Travis.

 

Chavis is top 100, isn't he? Kopech (or Espi) is not as high as the Jimenez, but maybe the CWS would have liked the others we could have offered more.

 

20 Kopech

96 Chavis

 

It would probably have taken Espi & Groome or Kopech & Groome to get Q.

 

[moonslav59]

On the Luxury Tax penalties, I think I was wrong about the non monetary penalties kicking in at the $20M over tier. They actually don't kick in until after going over by $40M. That's good news for the Sox.

 

Here's what I found:

 

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

 

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

 

It appears that if we reset the tax this year or possible next, the following years would be taxed as such:

 

Year 1: 20% (32% on money spent from $20M to $40M with the 12% surtax and $42.5% if we go over $40M plus our draft pick moved back 10 slots.)

 

Year 2: 30% (42% on anything between $20-40M and $45M on anyhting over $40M plus draft pick moved back 10 slots)

[harmony]

Chavis is top 100, isn't he? Kopech (or Espi) is not as high as the Jimenez, but maybe the CWS would have liked the others we could have offered more.

 

20 Kopech

96 Chavis

 

It would probably have taken Espi & Groome or Kopech & Groome to get Q.

 

Baseball America midseason prospect rankings:

 

5. Eloy Jimenez

6. Rafael Devers

83. Dylan Cease

87. Jason Groome

96. Michael Chavis

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#LhQHl9Z2feFdqerJ.97

 

I can't imagine the Red Sox could have landed Jose Quintana without trading Devers.

[a700hitter]

Baseball America midseason prospect rankings:

 

5. Eloy Jimenez

6. Rafael Devers

83. Dylan Cease

87. Jason Groome

96. Michael Chavis

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#LhQHl9Z2feFdqerJ.97

 

I can't imagine the Red Sox could have landed Jose Quintana without trading Devers.

Maybe if we could get Groomes dad to throw in a couple of bags of crack, some heroin and a bag of meth.

[mvp 78]

Maybe if we could get Groomes dad to throw in a couple of bags of crack, some heroin and a bag of meth.

 

At least we now know the "character issues" that helped him fall in the draft.

[a700hitter]

At least we now know the "character issues" that helped him fall in the draft.

And I think they might have underestimated the severity.

[Spudboy]

Maybe if we could get Groomes dad to throw in a couple of bags of crack, some heroin and a bag of meth.

 

Yeah maybe Chicago has a Washington or Hobson type in their FO.

 

Could work.

[moonslav59]

Baseball America midseason prospect rankings:

 

5. Eloy Jimenez

6. Rafael Devers

83. Dylan Cease

87. Jason Groome

96. Michael Chavis

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#LhQHl9Z2feFdqerJ.97

 

I can't imagine the Red Sox could have landed Jose Quintana without trading Devers.

 

I was talking about the big "what if" we still had Espi.

 

Maybe Espi, Groome, Travis and Chavis might have come close.

[moonslav59]

Red Sox release Peralta.

 

Next up: Pablito

[moonslav59]

Team Rankings according to fangraphs...

 

Offense

SS: 3rd

RF: 6th

CF: 10th

LF: 14th

DH: 8th out of 15

2B: 19th

1B: 22nd

C: 26th

3B: 28th

 

Defense

RF: 1st

2B: 2nd

3B: 7th (shocking, isn't it?)

1B: 8th

C: 8th

CF: 11th

SS: 11th

LF: 24th (Fenway hurts the D metric)

 

Overall WAR

RF: 3rd

SS: 3rd

2B: 8th

CF: 14th

LF: 19th

1B: 22nd

C: 24th

3B: 27th

 

Pitching WAR

Sox are 3rd

 

SP'ing

Sox are 4th

 

RP'ing

Sox are 6th

 

 

[moonslav59]

Top Individual SP'er Rankings by WAR in MLB

 

BOS

1) Sale 5.3

25) Porcello 1.9

27) Pomeranz 1.9

85) ERod 0.7

86) Price 0.7

 

WAS

2) Scherzer 4.4

10) Strasburg 2.9

39) G. Gonzalez 1.6

73) Roark 1.0

110) J Ross 0.4

 

LAD

3) Kershaw 3.7

8) A Wood 3.0

18) B McCarthy 2.1

63) K Maeda 1.1

75) R Hill 1.0

126) Ryu 0.2

 

CLE

4) Kluber 3.4

13) Carrasco 2.5

45) T Bauer 1.5

72) J Tomlin 1.0

82) Clevinger 0.9

108) Salazar 0.4

 

HOU

12) McCullers 2.7

23) Keuchel 1.9

81) Morton 0.9

121) Fiers 0.2

 

Cubs

** 22) Quintana 2.0** (with CWS)

33) Lester 1.7

45) Arrieta 1.4

93) Hendricks 0.7

97) E Butler 0.6

135) Lackey -0.1

[moonslav59]

On the farm...

All top 5 farm teams won by allowing a total of just 2 runs.

 

AAA

Brian Johnson: 7 IP 3H 0 ER 2 BB/ 2 K

Maddox & Workman 1 IP 0H 0 ER 0 BB

 

AA

Chavis 0-3 w BB

D Mars 1-5 w HR

 

A+

Ockimey 1-2 w HR (9th) and BB

Raudes 5IP 4H 0ER 2BB/ 3K

 

[sk7326]

Slightly off topic looking at the WAR numbers - AL MVP right now SHOULD be a 2-man race between Judge and Sale. Now, I expect it is really a one-man race because of the anti-pitcher MVP bias.

[moonslav59]

Slightly off topic looking at the WAR numbers - AL MVP right now SHOULD be a 2-man race between Judge and Sale. Now, I expect it is really a one-man race because of the anti-pitcher MVP bias.

 

Judge will slump: Sale will get even better.

[sk7326]

Judge will slump: Sale will get even better.

 

Of course Trout is 7th in fWAR despite only playing 47 games. He is probably disqualified due to to all that missed time - but I expect him to make it interesting along with the other usual suspects (Correa, Altuve, Betts has really come on)

[Kimmi]

Slightly off topic looking at the WAR numbers - AL MVP right now SHOULD be a 2-man race between Judge and Sale. Now, I expect it is really a one-man race because of the anti-pitcher MVP bias.

 

You are probably right about the anti pitcher bias. I hear so much talk about how Judge is clearly the MVP favorite since Trout's been injured, and I've heard almost nothing about Sale as an MVP candidate.

 

Another consideration would be if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn't. Right or wrong, voters will take that into account.

[sk7326]

You are probably right about the anti pitcher bias. I hear so much talk about how Judge is clearly the MVP favorite since Trout's been injured, and I've heard almost nothing about Sale as an MVP candidate.

 

Another consideration would be if one team makes the playoffs and the other doesn't. Right or wrong, voters will take that into account.

 

True, though I think Trout has sort of earned himself an exemption in voters minds. He could have justifiably won the last 5 MVPs ... and is still in the WAR Top 10 (position) despite missing half the season.

[moonslav59]

When Pedro was robbed of the MVP, I gave up caring about such awards.

[sk7326]

When Pedro was robbed of the MVP, I gave up caring about such awards.

 

It is interesting fodder - I am not attached to it too much. And the writers have gotten progressively smarter - although that is more obviously true with the Cy Young than MVP

[sk7326]

When Pedro was robbed of the MVP, I gave up caring about such awards.

 

What is interesting about that was my robbery contention was less about Pudge over Pedro (which I disagreed with, but fine) ... but voters making up their own rules about the parameters.

[Kimmi]

What is interesting about that was my robbery contention was less about Pudge over Pedro (which I disagreed with, but fine) ... but voters making up their own rules about the parameters.

 

I'm sure we've had this discussion before, but there is also the problem of one's interpretation of 'most valuable'. IMO, most valuable does not necessarily mean the best player.

[sk7326]

I'm sure we've had this discussion before, but there is also the problem of one's interpretation of 'most valuable'. IMO, most valuable does not necessarily mean the best player.

 

I think that is fair - although I think you have to START from the best players and work from there. So many of the "intangibles" are things we as fans infer without a ton of empirical evidence. (leadership, lineup protection, clutchiness)

[Kimmi]

I think that is fair - although I think you have to START from the best players and work from there. So many of the "intangibles" are things we as fans infer without a ton of empirical evidence. (leadership, lineup protection, clutchiness)

 

I agree that you start with the best players.

 

Oddly, I believe in the leadership intangible, but not in lineup protection or clutchiness.

[moonslav59]

What is interesting about that was my robbery contention was less about Pudge over Pedro (which I disagreed with, but fine) ... but voters making up their own rules about the parameters.

 

Yes, I believe some writers didn't even have Pedro on the ballot.

 

Pedro's season was so dominant when compared to other pitchers in the hitting era. On top of that, a .914 OPS, even by a catcher, was not all that great during that era. Pedro's 2000 season was even more "off-the-charts"!

 

A review of Pedro's dominance in 1999 and 2000:

AL comp

1999 ERA

2.07 Pedro

3.44 Cone

3.50 Mussina

3.75 Radke

3.85 Rosado

 

2000 ERA (This blows my mind!)

1.74 Pedro

3.70 Clemens

3.79 Mussina

3.79 Sirotka

3.88 Colon

 

1999-2000 ERA- Leaders (split seasons)

35 Pedro 2000

42 Pedro 1999

73 Cone 1999

74 Mussina 1999

75 Radke 1999

76 Rosado 1999

76 Sirotka 2000

(Looks like 2000 was even more dominating.)

 

K/BB

8.88 Pedro 2000

8.50 Pedro 1999

5.35 Wells 2000

4.57 Mussins

3.64 Milton 2000

(Pedro was more than twice as high as the number 3 guy both years!)

 

WHIP

0.74 Pedro 2000

0.93 Pedro 1999

1.19 Mussina 2000

1.21 O Hernandez 2000

1.23 Milton 1999

 

FIP-

30 Pedro 1999

48 Pedro 2000

68 Mussina 1999

73 Wells 2000

 

(Weird factoid: Pedro's BABIP: .325 in 1999 and .236 in 2000.)

Best ERA+ of all time (post 1920)

ERA+

291 Pedro 2000

271 Maddux 1994

260 Maddux 1995

258 Gibson 1968

243 Pedro 1999

(Pedro is also 10th at 219 in 1997.)

 

FIP (Baseball ref)

1.395 Pedro 1999

1.685 Gooden 1984

1.775 Gibson 1968

1.811 Kershaw 2014

1.852 Koufax 1963

 

WHIP (ALL TIME)

0.737 Pedro (2000)

65th .0923 (1999)

 

 

 

 

 

 

[sk7326]

Yes, I believe some writers didn't even have Pedro on the ballot.

 

Pedro's season was so dominant when compared to other pitchers in the hitting era. On top of that, a .914 OPS, even by a catcher, was not all that great during that era. Pedro's 2000 season was even more "off-the-charts"!

 

A review of Pedro's dominance in 1999 and 2000:

AL comp

1999 ERA

2.07 Pedro

3.44 Cone

3.50 Mussina

3.75 Radke

3.85 Rosado

 

2000 ERA (This blows my mind!)

1.74 Pedro

3.70 Clemens

3.79 Mussina

3.79 Sirotka

3.88 Colon

 

1999-2000 ERA- Leaders (split seasons)

35 Pedro 2000

42 Pedro 1999

73 Cone 1999

74 Mussina 1999

75 Radke 1999

76 Rosado 1999

76 Sirotka 2000

(Looks like 2000 was even more dominating.)

 

K/BB

8.88 Pedro 2000

8.50 Pedro 1999

5.35 Wells 2000

4.57 Mussins

3.64 Milton 2000

(Pedro was more than twice as high as the number 3 guy both years!)

 

WHIP

0.74 Pedro 2000

0.93 Pedro 1999

1.19 Mussina 2000

1.21 O Hernandez 2000

1.23 Milton 1999

 

FIP-

30 Pedro 1999

48 Pedro 2000

68 Mussina 1999

73 Wells 2000

 

(Weird factoid: Pedro's BABIP: .325 in 1999 and .236 in 2000.)

Best ERA+ of all time (post 1920)

ERA+

291 Pedro 2000

271 Maddux 1994

260 Maddux 1995

258 Gibson 1968

243 Pedro 1999

(Pedro is also 10th at 219 in 1997.)

 

FIP (Baseball ref)

1.395 Pedro 1999

1.685 Gooden 1984

1.775 Gibson 1968

1.811 Kershaw 2014

1.852 Koufax 1963

 

WHIP (ALL TIME)

0.737 Pedro (2000)

65th .0923 (1999)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This was a very long post. I lived it. His 1997-2002 was better pitching than any baseball player did anything in my lifetime. The only comparable was Bonds' Ruthian stretch.

[moonslav59]

This was a very long post. I lived it. His 1997-2002 was better pitching than any baseball player did anything in my lifetime. The only comparable was Bonds' Ruthian stretch.

 

Clemens made me aware of how much pitching mattered, but that stretch by Pedro was Herculean.