A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[S5Dewey]

Starting Pitching is just fine, unless you empty out the farm completely and go after top of the line pitcher. Obviously that ain't happening. Middle of the road starting pitching does Sox no good. Assuming E Rod comes back healthy, we should be in great shape the rest of the year. We have as much quality as anyone in the league 1-5. We also have Fiester, Johnson, etc as a back up.

 

Relief Pitching....I'm just not a big fan of Barnes. He comes in last night and promptly walks the first batter on 4 pitches. What the HELL? Didn't he warm up properly in the pen? His pitches were not even close. To me, he does not pitch with a sense of urgency. I just don't like the way he looks on the mound. Yeah, it's personal. Where in the hell are we with Carson Smith? Is he coming back this year? I just don't understand the injury situation with our club. It just seems so unpredicable.

 

3B....my message is you try EVERYTHING before relinquishing prospects for a rental. DEVERS. What the f*** are we afraid of? Even in a small sample size, Lin has performed well for us. HE'S f***ING PLAYING BETTER IN MLB THAN HE WAS AT AA. It's a crapshoot. Are you telling me that NONE of you ever had someone come out of nowhere in your lifetime and exceeded your expectations? Do you think anyone in Yankee organization expected 30 FREAKING home runs from a rookie?

 

You just need a guy at 3B playing good defense. I can't imagine Devers being any worse than Lin/Marrero. He might surprise us all. But you know what? You can't win the powerball if you don't buy a ticket.

 

I don't see Lin/Marrero being a black hole defensively at 3B. They're both serviceable. The problem at 3B is the lack of offensive production. If Devers can't hit at the ML level then we may as well keep Lin/Marrero there.

 

For a talent like Devers it's not as simple as just bringing him up to see what happens. It's a longer term thing. If the FO is right and he's not ready he'll have to be sent back down and possibly burn an option year. If the FO doesn't think Devers isn't ready I'm going to defer to their judgement.

 

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong here, but IIRC a player has to be on the 25 man roster for 45 non-consecutive days in order for his stay to qualify him for an option year if he gets sent back down. That's part of the reason why they held off as long as they did on bringing Beni up last year.

 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the same thing happen with Devers. Bring him up early in August. If he surprises the FO and hits well then keep him here, and if he can't hit then send him back down for as long as it takes for him to not spend that 45 days on the 25 man roster, then bring him back up on Sept. 1 when the roster expands.

 

It's also worth mentioning that Beni was ahead of where Devers is now offensively when he got brought up.

[oldtimer]

That's a very interesting thought. I remember that when bats were breaking at a record pace there was a lot of talk about them being made of maple, with a shorter fiber length than the traditional ash bats. IDK if fewer players are using maple bats now but it doesn't seem like there are as many broken bats as in the past.

 

Of course going to a shorter fiber length would increase the hardness of the bat, but at the same time it would decrease the 'whip' in the bat and possibly even the compressability of the bat at the contact point with the ball.

 

I'm not sold on the idea of the change in bats being a part of the issue, but I wouldn't rule it out ether.

 

 

I'm continuing to play softball in the old mens league and we get to use double walled carbon fiber bats. It is well known that the bats have a break in period in which some of the fibers break making the bats more flexible and springier. So the more flexible bat also tends to result in longer hits. I don't buy into the idea that a harder stiffer bat produces longer fly balls.

[S5Dewey]

I'm continuing to play softball in the old mens league ...

 

I'm so friggin' envious of you. There is no "geriatric softball' in my neck of the woods.

[Jack Flap]

I wonder what they'd want for both? I'm sure they'd want more, if they pay part of Prado/Phelps' deals.

 

Contracts:

 

Prado:

3 years/$40M (2017-19) AVV= $13.33M (Cost this year at deadline ~$4.5M

17:$11.5M, 18:$13.5M, 19:$15M

 

Phelps:

1 year/$4.6M , AVV= $4.6M (Cost at deadline ~$1.6M

+ 1 more arb year

 

Total AVV cost towards luxury tax this year would be about $6M. I think we could squeeze under the tax and reset the tax with this deal, but if we need Miami to pay a little to get us under, that should be doable.

 

Would Miami take Chavis, Lakins, Beeks and Ockimey?

 

Would you give all that? At least both are not one-year rentals, but with Devers projected to join the team in 2018, and Holt maybe ready for a comeback, we may not want/need Prado next year. Prado does provide 4th OF'er coverage as Young goes to free agency next year, though.

 

I'm just not all that into Prado (even at a discounted salary and with Phelps thrown in), so that still seems like a lot to me. Maybe I'm overvaluing some of our mid-level prospects and undervaluing Prado, but I just don't see him as a huge upgrade over what we already have at this point.

[Station 13]

Prado brings nothing here. Frazier is a better target if 3B must be upgraded.

[mvp 78]

Prado brings nothing here. Frazier is a better target if 3B must be upgraded.

 

I don't see a need for either.

[Spudboy]

I don't see a need for either.

 

I agree.

[Maxbialystock]

I agree.

 

And I agree with both of you. I am fine with Lin/Marrero at 3b and absolutely do not see the value in making another dumb deal for someone another team is more than happy to unload.

 

Enough with the fantasy baseball, already.

[Bellhorn04]

Enough with the fantasy baseball, already.

 

Good line.

[moonslav59]

I'm just not all that into Prado (even at a discounted salary and with Phelps thrown in), so that still seems like a lot to me. Maybe I'm overvaluing some of our mid-level prospects and undervaluing Prado, but I just don't see him as a huge upgrade over what we already have at this point.

 

I don't either. That's why I asked what people thought of what I put out there. Too little? Too much? Just right?

[moonslav59]

Prado brings nothing here. Frazier is a better target if 3B must be upgraded.

 

Frazier has had worse second half splits every single season of his career.

 

He's off to a slower than normal start. That doesn't bode well for the second half.

 

I still see him as an upgrade, but he too, might be way too costly.

[Station 13]

Frazier has had worse second half splits every single season of his career.

 

He's off to a slower than normal start. That doesn't bode well for the second half.

 

I still see him as an upgrade, but he too, might be way too costly.

 

Not a fan of either to be clear. I don't want Devers block this September.

[moonslav59]

Not a fan of either to be clear. I don't want Devers block this September.

 

I'm thinking that if Devers hasn't been called up already, I doubt they'll give him a chance in September. Is he going to magically become ML ready with 6 more weeks of play on the farm?

 

I had Lin as our 10th string 3Bman to start the season. He got a shot over Devers.

 

I had Marrero on my short list of DFA candidates, if we needed a 40 man roster spot opened up. He got a chance over Devers.

 

Heck, I wouldn't be surprised, if theyc alled up Dominguez or gave Pablito another chance before handing 3B to Devers, even in September.

 

I'm surprised he's still on the farm, but I'm not complaining. I trust DD & Co. and knowing when the right time is to give him his shot.

[oldtimer]

I'm so friggin' envious of you. There is no "geriatric softball' in my neck of the woods.

 

Sorry to hear that. I get to play year round in Florida and NC. Guys are still playing in their 80's and I hope to keep it together to join them. My brother is over 80 and still at it.

[mvp 78]

I'm thinking that if Devers hasn't been called up already, I doubt they'll give him a chance in September. Is he going to magically become ML ready with 6 more weeks of play on the farm?

 

Why wouldn't he even get called up in September? They have a timetable for him. It has nothing to do with readiness.

[veryoldtimer]

I'm no expert and my eyes aren't very good either.

Last night on the HR derby I seem to recall the announcers saying something about special bats for the contest.

Also, watching a slo-mo of one of Judge's blasts, I didn't notice any flex at all at contact.

There, I've said my piece, and now I'm done with it.

[Nick]

Looking at Cot's contracts and assuming Young, Moreland and Abad is gone.

We have at most $23M to absorb the arbitration increases for following players.

(First amounts are their salary for 2017)

 

Assuming we'll blow by the cap by $20M but avoid the 2nd tier penalties, can we add couple of pieces and keep it under $43M from this year's pay?

(I've already accounted for increases in pay for Kimbrel, Sale, etc)

 

Pomeranz, Drew $4,450,000 a3

Kelly, Joe $2,800,000 a3

Ross, Robbie $1,825,000 a3

Bogaerts, Xander $4,500,000 a2

Bradley, Jackie Jr. $3,600,000 a2

Thornburg, Tyler $2,050,000 a2

Holt, Brock $1,950,000 a2

Leon, Sandy $1,300,000 a2

Rutledge, Josh $600,000 a2

Betts, Mookie $950,000 a1

Wright, Steve $593,500 a1

Rodriguez, Eduardo $584,500 a1

Vazquez, Christian $561,000 a1

Smith, Carson $556,750 a1

Barnes, Matt $563,500

Benintendi, Andrew $549,000

Hembree, Heath $547,000

Scott, Robby $537,000

 

I would assume Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Xander Bogaerts, JBJ, Mookie Betts and E Rod are all due for healthy raises. If those raises average $4M, that's total of $24M before Vaz and Leon. We may have to trade someone like Ross. Brock Holt maybe another candidate if Lin can play corner OF in addition to CF.

 

Really need for Carson Smith and Thornburg to become healthy again.

 

Moon? Bueller? Moon? Bueller? Moon? Moon?

Edited July 11, 2017 by Nick

[oldtimer]

I'm no expert and my eyes aren't very good either.

Last night on the HR derby I seem to recall the announcers saying something about special bats for the contest.

Also, watching a slo-mo of one of Judge's blasts, I didn't notice any flex at all at contact.

There, I've said my piece, and now I'm done with it.

 

What I noticed is the bats tend to bend as the hitter accelerates the bat, putting a whip into the stroke. Contact only lasts for milliseconds, which is far faster than the human eye can see and process. That someone can hit a baseball over 500 feet supplying mainly their own power is very rare. Actually there are cases where softballs have been hit that far as well. Man, would I love Judge to play in a Boston uniform. Lets find our own kid like that, only they only come around once in a generation, if that.

[moonslav59]

Why wouldn't he even get called up in September? They have a timetable for him. It has nothing to do with readiness.

 

I didn't mean to imply they won't call him up. I meant I do not think they are looking to or planning on giving him a long look in September.

 

If they really are planning on that, then I'm not sure why he's not been called up already.

 

I suppose 6 more weeks could be enough time to tip the balance from "not ML reaaddy" to "ML ready", but I'm skeptical.

 

Again, I trust Sox management on determining when Devers is "ready".

[moonslav59]

Looking at Cot's contracts and assuming Young, Moreland and Abad is gone.

We have at most $23M to absorb the arbitration increases for following players.

(First amounts are their salary for 2017)

 

Assuming we'll blow by the cap by $20M but avoid the 2nd tier penalties, can we add couple of pieces and keep it under $43M from this year's pay?

(I've already accounted for increases in pay for Kimbrel, Sale, etc)

 

Pomeranz, Drew $4,450,000 a3

Kelly, Joe $2,800,000 a3

Ross, Robbie $1,825,000 a3

Bogaerts, Xander $4,500,000 a2

Bradley, Jackie Jr. $3,600,000 a2

Thornburg, Tyler $2,050,000 a2

Holt, Brock $1,950,000 a2

Leon, Sandy $1,300,000 a2

Rutledge, Josh $600,000 a2

Betts, Mookie $950,000 a1

Wright, Steve $593,500 a1

Rodriguez, Eduardo $584,500 a1

Vazquez, Christian $561,000 a1

Smith, Carson $556,750 a1

Barnes, Matt $563,500

Benintendi, Andrew $549,000

Hembree, Heath $547,000

Scott, Robby $537,000

 

I would assume Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly, Xander Bogaerts, JBJ, Mookie Betts and E Rod are all due for healthy raises. If those raises average $4M, that's total of $24M before Vaz and Leon. We may have to trade someone like Ross. Brock Holt maybe another candidate if Lin can play corner OF in addition to CF.

 

Really need for Carson Smith and Thornburg to become healthy again.

 

Moon? Bueller? Moon? Bueller? Moon? Moon?

 

I think it will be close. I don't think we will be able to sign anyone to over $10-15M and stay under the second tier penalty phase, unless we trade someone like Ross & Holt. If Smith and Thornburg are healthy we may trade Kelly.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

 

By Steve Adams | July 11, 2017 at 8:37pm CDT

 

The Red Sox have “keen interest” in Phillies righty Pat Neshek, reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. The 36-year-old Neshek (who has already tossed a scoreless inning in tonight’s All-Star Game) is widely expected to be traded, given his status as an impending free agent on baseball’s worst team. The sidearmer has worked to a pristine 1.27 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 36.5 percent ground-ball rate thus far in 2017. And, unlike in many previous seasons, Neshek has held left-handed opponents in check quite well. Right-handed opponents are hitting .234/.253/.286 against Neshek this season, while lefties are hitting .180/.231/.313. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported that the Sox had scouted Neshek over the weekend as well, and he’s also been linked to the Nationals this summer.

[moonslav59]

Brentz wins AAA Home Run Derby

[harmony]

Trivia: Who were the last two Red Sox players to homer in an All Star game?

 

Neither was a fan favorite in Boston.

[a700hitter]

Trivia: Who were the last two Red Sox players to homer in an All Star game?

 

Neither was a fan favorite in Boston.

J.D Drew and ... Fred Lynn?

[Jasonbay44]

J.D Drew and ... Fred Lynn?

Someone had to have homered more recently than Lynn in all star game for the Sox. I know JD Drew homered and won all star game MVP, and I assume Ortiz, Manny, Adrian Gonzalez or one of those guys HAD to of hit at least one homer in the all star game lol.

[mvp 78]

AGon and Drew

 

Previously in reverse order: Ortiz, Manny, Boggs (after Bo's monster shot and the only Sox AS Game HR I remember), Rice, Lynn, Lynn, Scott, Lynn, Yaz, Runnels, Malzone, Ted, Bob Elliott, Ted, Ted, Doerr, Ted, Max West.

 

Edit: Max West and Bob Elliott played for the Boston Braves, not the Red Sox. Please ignore.

Edited July 12, 2017 by mvp 78

[Bellhorn04]

AGon and Drew

 

Previously in reverse order: Ortiz, Manny, Boggs (after Bo's monster shot and the only Sox AS Game HR I remember), Rice, Lynn, Lynn, Scott, Lynn, Yaz, Runnels, Malzone, Ted, Bob Elliott, Ted, Ted, Doerr, Ted, Max West.

 

How many of Lynn's when he was with Sox? I know he hit the grand slam off Atlee Hammaker in 1983.

[mvp 78]

How many of Lynn's when he was with Sox? I know he hit the grand slam off Atlee Hammaker in 1983.

 

All of the ones I listed. He hit a total of 4 HRs, 3 with the Sox and the one with the Angels.

 

Stan the Man hit 6. Ted and Lynn hit 4. No one else has more than 3.

[mvp 78]

Players who have hit 3: Soriano, Eddie Matthews, Gary Carter, Killebrew, Bench, Kiner, Colavito, Mays.

 

There were 17 games where no HRs were hit.

 

Catfish Hunter and Vida Blue both gave up 4 HRs. Players that gave up 3: Palmer, Kenny Rogers, Milt Pappas, Mort Cooper, Robin Roberts, Clemens, Carlton, Seaver, Ford.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox have hit 18 HRs in the All Star Game, more than any other franchise. Cards have 14 (including Musial's 6) and Tigers have 13.