A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[harmony]

Translation: Darned if I know, but there must be something!

 

This simply points out one of the reasons for my lack of confidence in WAR. If a player's oWAR + his dWAR doesn't equal his toal WAR what else is there? "Clubhouse influence"? Or... the player's ability to be "clutch"?

The precise calculations are available to the public:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

[cp176]

I don't ever remember seeing a player who has the ability to see the ball coming off the bat, take his eyes off the ball and run to 'the spot', and then turn and find the ball again and make the catch like JBJ can. Not even Mookie.

 

Say Hey!!! Remember Willie! He still heads my list of the greatest baseball player of all time. He could do it for sure. He could do it all.

[S5Dewey]

The precise calculations are available to the public:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

 

Yeah. And so's the federal budget. And they're both equally understandable and make as much sense.

[a700hitter]

yeah. And so's the federal budget. And they're both equally understandable and make as much sense.

lol!

[Spudboy]

I don't ever remember seeing a player who has the ability to see the ball coming off the bat, take his eyes off the ball and run to 'the spot', and then turn and find the ball again and make the catch like JBJ can. Not even Mookie.

 

Yup. JBJ has mad skills that most do not even notice let alone appreciate.

[moonslav59]

I don't buy it. Bogaerts is much younger, and we don't truly know his offensive or defensive ceiling yet. But don't worry, by the time the need to make a decision arises, we will have a better idea of the performance standard of both players.

 

Bogaerts being younger probably means he'll want 2-3 more years on a mega deal than JBJ.

 

Weighing the cost and length of each contract vs age usually evens things out pretty much.

 

It should come down to who is better at the time, and who do we have to replace one vs the other (at the time).

 

 

Personally, I think JBJ and Bogey are very close, but as of right now, I'd put JBJ slightly over Bogey.

 

It's not easy finding GG caliber CF defense with 25+ HR power and an.830+ OPS. In today's world, there's actually more great SSs than CF'ers.

[sk7326]

Bogaerts being younger probably means he'll want 2-3 more years on a mega deal than JBJ.

 

Weighing the cost and length of each contract vs age usually evens things out pretty much.

 

It should come down to who is better at the time, and who do we have to replace one vs the other (at the time).

 

 

Personally, I think JBJ and Bogey are very close, but as of right now, I'd put JBJ slightly over Bogey.

 

It's not easy finding GG caliber CF defense with 25+ HR power and an.830+ OPS. In today's world, there's actually more great SSs than CF'ers.

 

The younger player SHOULD want more - and the team probably should want to sign him to a longer term deal more. And given that Bogaerts actually has a longer track record of quality than Bradley has. (granted, by 1 year but it is true).

 

There are more great SSs than CFs, but not by much. And an important consideration is that - we (almost certainly) have two of those CFs in tow already.

[moonslav59]

The younger player SHOULD want more - and the team probably should want to sign him to a longer term deal more. And given that Bogaerts actually has a longer track record of quality than Bradley has. (granted, by 1 year but it is true).

 

There are more great SSs than CFs, but not by much. And an important consideration is that - we (almost certainly) have two of those CFs in tow already.

 

Moving a corner OF'er to CF opens up a huge hole at corner OF, and while finding a top corner OF'er through free agency or trade is usually easier than finding a SS, both would be costly.

 

What about filling the position from within the system? This is also a consideration in making an either or choice.

 

Bogey's contract ends after 2019.

#6 prospect: Marco Hernandez (still pre-arb)

#7 prospect: CJ Chatham

 

JBJ's (and Betts') ends after 2020.

#36 prospect Steve Selsky

#28 prospect Aneury Tavarez

#29 prospect Tate Matheny

#30 prospect Kyri Washington

#31 prospect Tyler Hill

#32 prospect Lorenzo Cedrola

 

I realize a lot can happen over the next 2-3 years, in terms of prospect growth and acquisitions as well as trade acquisitions, but as of right now, I wouldn't feel horrible about having Marco & Chatham as our SSs of the future, assuming the money saved helped us keep one or two of Sale, Betts, JBJ or Porcello.

[harmony]

Yeah. And so's the federal budget. And they're both equally understandable and make as much sense.

Many people with an area of expertise roll their eyes at questions from persons who lack that expertise.

 

Each of us has limitations ... don't be ashamed.

[S5Dewey]

Many people with an area of expertise roll their eyes at questions from persons who lack that expertise.

 

Each of us has limitations ... don't be ashamed.

 

Ashamed? Not in the least. I'm in good company. Baseball is full of people who don't understand the mumbo-jumbo of WAR. But if there's anyone who posts here who thinks they can explain it to me in detail I'd love to listen. And while we're at it, let's tackle that federal budget too!

 

I find that a great rule of thumb in everything is that the more moving parts it has the greater the chance of its breaking down.

[Bellhorn04]

Ashamed? Not in the least. I'm in good company. Baseball is full of people who don't understand the mumbo-jumbo of WAR. But if there's anyone who posts here who thinks they can explain it to me in detail I'd love to listen. And while we're at it, let's tackle that federal budget too!

 

I find that a great rule of thumb in everything is that the more moving parts it has the greater the chance of its breaking down.

 

WAR is a piece of cake compared to tax rules and a lot of the other BS we deal with.

 

JBJ had a 5.3 WAR last year because WAR rewards him for being good on both sides of the ball. That's a big step forward right there...

[moonslav59]

WAR is a piece of cake compared to tax rules and a lot of the other BS we deal with.

 

JBJ had a 5.3 WAR last year because WAR rewards him for being good on both sides of the ball. That's a big step forward right there...

 

Base running is also a component of WAR.

[sk7326]

Moving a corner OF'er to CF opens up a huge hole at corner OF, and while finding a top corner OF'er through free agency or trade is usually easier than finding a SS, both would be costly.

 

What about filling the position from within the system? This is also a consideration in making an either or choice.

 

Bogey's contract ends after 2019.

#6 prospect: Marco Hernandez (still pre-arb)

#7 prospect: CJ Chatham

 

JBJ's (and Betts') ends after 2020.

#36 prospect Steve Selsky

#28 prospect Aneury Tavarez

#29 prospect Tate Matheny

#30 prospect Kyri Washington

#31 prospect Tyler Hill

#32 prospect Lorenzo Cedrola

 

I realize a lot can happen over the next 2-3 years, in terms of prospect growth and acquisitions as well as trade acquisitions, but as of right now, I wouldn't feel horrible about having Marco & Chatham as our SSs of the future, assuming the money saved helped us keep one or two of Sale, Betts, JBJ or Porcello.

 

Fenway is a mint - I have zero qualms about finding the corner OF via somewhere else. Shortstop is a huge hole if you let a 4-win player who will only have just turned 27 when his 2019 ends.

[moonslav59]

Fenway is a mint - I have zero qualms about finding the corner OF via somewhere else. Shortstop is a huge hole if you let a 4-win player who will only have just turned 27 when his 2019 ends.

 

It's not just about finding an OF'er. We found DMac, Nava and de Aza. Replacing JBJ with Betts in CF is fine, but replacing Betts in RF with someone like de Aza is going to be a big slide down.

 

Name some good OF free agent signings recently that were thought to be good signings at the time?

 

I'll name 3 bad ones for every good one you find.

 

Playing RF in Fenway is not "mint".

 

I love having Betts out there.

Edited April 19, 2017 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I'd be higher on JBJ if he was more consistent at the plate. He's the greatest Sox OF since Evans, but I still don't trust his bat.

 

That's why he's the last of the B's I'd want to sign long term.

[jad]

The precise calculations are available to the public:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

 

As in many other areas of scholarship, if you cannot explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area, then most likely your theory is b.s.

[Bellhorn04]

As in many other areas of scholarship, if you cannot explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area, then most likely your theory is b.s.

 

You just made that up.

[Emp9]

Well, your theory might not necessarily be b.s., you just won't get funding is all.

[harmony]

As in many other areas of scholarship, if you cannot explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area, then most likely your theory is b.s.

An expert's presentation to the general public will be different from the expert's presentation to peers. The latter typically requires a precision that the former does not.

 

The links to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference "explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area."

 

WAR is a statistic that would be found in an introductory course, not a course in advanced statistics.

[Spudboy]

I'd be higher on JBJ if he was more consistent at the plate. He's the greatest Sox OF since Evans, but I still don't trust his bat.

 

That's why he's the last of the B's I'd want to sign long term.

 

This is essentially how I feel.

 

The thing is none of the current outfield is done developing yet.

[devildavid]

An expert's presentation to the general public will be different from the expert's presentation to peers. The latter typically requires a precision that the former does not.

 

The links to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference "explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area."

 

WAR is a statistic that would be found in an introductory course, not a course in advanced statistics.

 

WAR is a subjective statistic. From Baseball-Reference.com:

 

There is no one way to determine WAR. There are hundreds of steps to make this calculation, and dozens of places where reasonable people can disagree on the best way to implement a particular part of the framework. We have taken the utmost care and study at each step in the process, and believe all of our choices are well reasoned and defensible. But WAR is necessarily an approximation and will never be as precise or accurate as one would like.

 

[Bellhorn04]

WAR is a subjective statistic. From Baseball-Reference.com:

 

Sure it is. They couldn't be much more up-front about it, could they?

[harmony]

WAR is a subjective statistic. From Baseball-Reference.com:

Just as batting average is subjective statistic dependent upon an official scorer's subjective judgment.

[Spudboy]

Well, your theory might not necessarily be b.s., you just won't get funding is all.

 

Bingo.

 

I say this as the Son of a research scientist.

[moonslav59]

I'd be higher on JBJ if he was more consistent at the plate. He's the greatest Sox OF since Evans, but I still don't trust his bat.

 

That's why he's the last of the B's I'd want to sign long term.

 

Bogey's been pretty streaky too.

 

I'm not sure I'd hold JBJ's poor start against him.

[moonslav59]

Just as batting average is subjective statistic dependent upon an official scorer's subjective judgment.

 

...and ball park dimensions, strength of opposing pitchers, climate conditions and more.

[devildavid]

Just as batting average is subjective statistic dependent upon an official scorer's subjective judgment.

 

The official scorer has a limited impact on batting average. Batting average is not overly dependent on official scoring decisions. And one batter's average is not dependent upon a replacement level player's batting average or measured relative to other player's batting averages.

[devildavid]

...and ball park dimensions, strength of opposing pitchers, climate conditions and more.

 

This does not impact how the statistic of BA is calculated.

[moonslav59]

This does not impact how the statistic of BA is calculated.

 

Exactly, and that's what makes this "objective stat" open to interpretation and subjectivity.

[harmony]

The official scorer has a limited impact on batting average. Batting average is not overly dependent on official scoring decisions. And one batter's average is not dependent upon a replacement level player's batting average or measured relative to other player's batting averages.

Those are reasons why batting averages are given less and less weight in the determination of value.

 

WAR makes a subjective determination of what objective statistics go into its calculation (even though those objective statistics are based on some subjective judgments).

 

The baseball cards of my childhood listed runs, RBI, home runs, batting average and stolen bases. In more recent years evaluators made the subjective decision to cite on-base percentage instead of batting average.

 

The typical WAR calculation gathers a wide variety of largely objective statistics to reach a conclusion. Like any statistic, WAR is subject to debate about how well it measures what it purports to measure.