A Realistic View at 2017 Part II

[Fisk]

Yes, but so do those on the other list you said "looked damn good".

 

Exactly so the uncertainty of keeping those prospects, and not having as strong of a team right now, matches the uncertainty of the future.

[cp176]

Well, you should have left this part out. Some nasty pre-judging apparently aimed at everyone who's trying to stay positive about the team's future.

 

You are right and I am guessing that it isn't just New England thing though. The gloom and doomers can be overwhelming. There is 0 happening to not be excited about. Today as well as tomorrow. The current ownership has and continues to show that they are willing to use all ways to build and sustain a healthy franchise. No one is operating on a win now at all costs philosophy. The farm has been dented but not at the expense of our future. On going on record here once again - Although I absolutely agree with the deal that brought us Chris Sale, the only prospect that I think we are going to someday really want back = Moncada.

[Fisk]

You are right and I am guessing that it isn't just New England thing though. The gloom and doomers can be overwhelming. There is 0 happening to not be excited about. Today as well as tomorrow. The current ownership has and continues to show that they are willing to use all ways to build and sustain a healthy franchise. No one is operating on a win now at all costs philosophy. The farm has been dented but not at the expense of our future. On going on record here once again - Although I absolutely agree with the deal that brought us Chris Sale, the only prospect that I think we are going to someday really want back = Moncada.

I agree with everything you just said, but higher on Kopech then Moncada right now.

[cp176]

I agree with everything you just said, but higher on Kopech then Moncada right now.

 

I just worry about pitchers in general. Haven't read anything about Kppech yet but I do wish we still had him. I have read about Moncada's start.

[cp176]

A little love for what Vazquez got done last night too. How many teams out there wish they had one of what we have 2 of? this could turn into one of the great job-shares in franchise history.

[Nick]

Both Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are under team control for 5 years, Carson Smith for 4 years and Tyler Thornburg for 3 years. I would hope one of them can take over as a closer.

 

I also believe DD is vested in Pom. It's way too early I know but if he pitches well this year, I can see Pom being extended this winter. This would lessen the impact of not being able to sign both Porcello and Sale.

 

We should work to extend Sale AFTER the 2018 season when his second option year comes due for 2019.

 

To me, Groome reminds me little bit of Pomeranz.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

A little love for what Vazquez got done last night too. How many teams out there wish they had one of what we have 2 of? this could turn into one of the great job-shares in franchise history.

 

Anything they can give us offensively is simply a bonus. They are both outstanding defensive catchers.

[Bellhorn04]

Nasty is how some have treated Ben.

 

The same might happen to DD, if he wins in 2018 and has two bad years in 2020 and 2021.

 

Absolutely, people will turn on DD in a heartbeat. That's the way it goes. People turned on Epstein and Francona. It's always 'what have you done for me lately'. It's a tough gig and these guys know it.

[moonslav59]

Absolutely, people will turn on DD in a heartbeat. That's the way it goes. People turned on Epstein and Francona. It's always 'what have you done for me lately'. It's a tough gig and these guys know it.

 

It doesn't interest you that the same posters who are praising his moves now and the "win now" philosophy will later bash him for having the same philosophy they agreed with earlier?

 

Win now is fine, but expecting miracles later is a lot to expect from any GM who takes this path, yet it happens over and over and over and...

[moonslav59]

Exactly so the uncertainty of keeping those prospects, and not having as strong of a team right now, matches the uncertainty of the future.

 

Certainly a future with many more top prospects looks brighter.

[moonslav59]

A little love for what Vazquez got done last night too. How many teams out there wish they had one of what we have 2 of? this could turn into one of the great job-shares in franchise history.

 

Agreed. With Swihart in the wings, I'm pretty sure most teams envy our catching situation despite some posters' dire WAR projections or calls for Swihart to force a trade of Leon or Vaz.

[moonslav59]

Both Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree are under team control for 5 years, Carson Smith for 4 years and Tyler Thornburg for 3 years. I would hope one of them can take over as a closer.

 

I hope so too. We haven't had a lot of luck producing our own closers, but between the 4 you mentioned, I think one can rise to the role.

 

 

I also believe DD is vested in Pom. It's way too early I know but if he pitches well this year, I can see Pom being extended this winter. This would lessen the impact of not being able to sign both Porcello and Sale.

 

Depends on what his demands are. He may look for a long term deal, especially if he has a good full season. I also think we may look for Groome to replace Pom after 2018, and then step it up in 2020, if we lose Porcello after 2019. This is all assuming we extend Sale. If not, we'll probably push hard to extend Pom, assuming he has done well.

 

2020? Sale, Price, ERod, Wright, Groome (and- or Pom?)

 

 

We should work to extend Sale AFTER the 2018 season when his second option year comes due for 2019.

 

Totally!

 

 

 

To me, Groome reminds me little bit of Pomeranz.

 

I'm optimistic, but I liked Espi and Kopech more at this point in their careers.

[S5Dewey]

It doesn't interest you that the same posters who are praising his moves now and the "win now" philosophy will later bash him for having the same philosophy they agreed with earlier?

 

Win now is fine, but expecting miracles later is a lot to expect from any GM who takes this path, yet it happens over and over and over and...

 

Winning has made us greedy. I remember times pre-2004 when people were saying they'd give their left nut or their first-born child (God, I loved that commercial! LOL) for just ONE World Series Championship.

 

Now we want to not only win now, we also want to be guaranteed a playoff spot every year into the future.

 

I agree.... I'd like that too. I'm just not sure this belongs in the "Realistic" thread.

[cp176]

It doesn't interest you that the same posters who are praising his moves now and the "win now" philosophy will later bash him for having the same philosophy they agreed with earlier?

 

Win now is fine, but expecting miracles later is a lot to expect from any GM who takes this path, yet it happens over and over and over and...

 

You know what - this is a tired whine. win now win now win now. I'm really curious to know what posters you are referring to. Most of us have given credit where credit is due to our illustrious gm's throughout the years. Disagreeing with someone's point of view with respect to the direction that the franchise wants to take toward accomplishing special things does not necessarily mean that someone is in "win now mode" . There are many posters here who truly do not think that Dombrowski has done anything to dampen our future dreams. Has he done things differently then Ben cxerington did? Of course. Liking what DD does does not mean that you disliked what Ben did.

[Nick]

I definitely want to keep Wright as our #6 starter for next 10 years.

 

You saw last night Pom has higher ceiling than Wright. Unpredictability of knuckleball is what's good and bad about the pitcher who throws it.

[Nick]

You know what - this is a tired whine. win now win now win now. I'm really curious to know what posters you are referring to. Most of us have given credit where credit is due to our illustrious gm's throughout the years. Disagreeing with someone's point of view with respect to the direction that the franchise wants to take toward accomplishing special things does not necessarily mean that someone is in "win now mode" . There are many posters here who truly do not think that Dombrowski has done anything to dampen our future dreams. Has he done things differently then Ben cxerington did? Of course. Liking what DD does does not mean that you disliked what Ben did.

 

All good points.

 

DD has a track record. He is what he is. HENRY HIRED HIM ANYWAY. To act surprised with the moves he's made is little astonishing. It seems every GM knows what DD is about, a straight shooter who goes for major talent. It's time to move on. He is our leader until Henry says he's not.

 

If Travis, Devers and Groome fulfill their promise, we'll still have a legit team beyond 2020.

 

I also appreciate comments about our current salary structure but it's not as though we've been frugal over the years. We've thrown away plenty of good money. We don't win last year without Price nor Kimbrel.

Edited April 12, 2017 by Nick

[Nick]

I'm optimistic, but I liked Espi and Kopech more at this point in their careers. Moon

 

I really liked Kopech. I thought he could be a closer for us sooner rather than later.

[moonslav59]

You ask this...

"...win now win now win now. I'm really curious to know what posters you are referring to."

 

Then say this...

 

"There are many posters here who truly do not think that Dombrowski has done anything to dampen our future dreams."

 

Trading Moncada, Espinoza, Kopech, Margot, Basabe and others has done "anything to dampen...future dreams?"

 

All I can say is WOW!

 

And if you want names of posters, you just claimed there are some.

 

 

I'm not whining. I love this roster. I'm just not into thinking wishing for miracles or some vastly different way of building a farm that has yet to be explained 4-5 years from now is a solid plan to have sweet dreams about.

 

Call it whining about the future, but I don't see it that way. I'm happy we kept Devers, Groome and Travis, but I hoped we had kept Espi and Margot (even if to have traded for something better than a closer or 3/4 starter). My beef is minor. I love this roster!

[mvp 78]

I'm optimistic, but I liked Espi and Kopech more at this point in their careers. Moon

 

I really liked Kopech. I thought he could be a closer for us sooner rather than later.

 

He has a straight fastball with poor secondary pitches and control issues. I'm not sure he'll be in the MLB very soon.

[moonslav59]

He has a straight fastball with poor secondary pitches and control issues. I'm not sure he'll be in the MLB very soon.

 

soxprospects.com had this on Kopech's slider:

 

Slider: 84-87 mph. Plus potential, showed wipeout potential and bat-missing ability.

 

Yes, the 4.6 BB/9 is hideous.

 

His 11.9 K/9 is promising.

[mvp 78]

soxprospects.com had this on Kopech's slider:

 

Slider: 84-87 mph. Plus potential, showed wipeout potential and bat-missing ability.

 

Yes, the 4.6 BB/9 is hideous.

 

His 11.9 K/9 is promising.

 

"Shows plus potential" is different than is a plus pitch. He has little to no control over it. I'm glad they got Sale for him.

[cp176]

You ask this...

"...win now win now win now. I'm really curious to know what posters you are referring to."

 

Then say this...

 

"There are many posters here who truly do not think that Dombrowski has done anything to dampen our future dreams."

 

Trading Moncada, Espinoza, Kopech, Margot, Basabe and others has done "anything to dampen...future dreams?"

 

All I can say is WOW!

 

And if you want names of posters, you just claimed there are some.

 

 

I'm not whining. I love this roster. I'm just not into thinking wishing for miracles or some vastly different way of building a farm that has yet to be explained 4-5 years from now is a solid plan to have sweet dreams about.

 

Call it whining about the future, but I don't see it that way. I'm happy we kept Devers, Groome and Travis, but I hoped we had kept Espi and Margot (even if to have traded for something better than a closer or 3/4 starter). My beef is minor. I love this roster!

 

Potatoe, potato - I do call it whining. Not everyone here who says something positive about what DD does needs to be branded "anti Ben" or anyone else. if losing the players that you mentioned dampens your future hopes and dreams with respect to our franchise, so be it. I feel sorry for you and anyone else who feels the same. oh well, I'm very much looking forward to the next 10 years of Red Sox baseball. No looking back for me. I'm a historian of sorts so I do appreciate Red Sox history,but I see the future being very bright. Thank you Theo, thank you Ben, I choose to look in the other direction.

[mvp 78]

Absolutely, people will turn on DD in a heartbeat. That's the way it goes. People turned on Epstein and Francona. It's always 'what have you done for me lately'. It's a tough gig and these guys know it.

 

It was really the Boston Globe that turned on those two, not the fans. Tito will always be my manager. Theo has been proven to be one of the all time greats at building an organization. It's a shame that this FO decided to keep Larry instead.

[mvp 78]

Our farm was both strong at the top and deep with quality.

 

Do you really see a way for us to get to where we were in the immediate future?

 

I think that even if we get lucky with lower draft picks, just the international signing restrictions is going to make it almost impossible to even come close to where we were.

 

Why? It's how they built the organization before. Thinking that dropping down 10+ picks is going to kill the franchise is kinda ridiculous.

 

No, there isn't an immediate fix, but there doesn't need to be. We have until 2022 until our farm needs to be great again. I'm pretty sure that if they make the right picks and sign the right guys that they'll be able to be just as good as they were prior to the DD trades.

[Jack Flap]

Epstein/Francona 2020

[mvp 78]

I'm fine with trying to win now, too. I think we went farther than we had to (Pom & Kimbrel), but I loved the Sale trade and understand why we signed Price.

 

My point was to call it for what it is. We sacrificed the future for the present, yet some seem to think we'll be able to rebuild the farm quickly and to a high quality status.

 

That's fine, but don't act like the farm system can't ever be built up again if they want it to be.

[moonslav59]

Potatoe, potato - I do call it whining. Not everyone here who says something positive about what DD does needs to be branded "anti Ben" or anyone else. if losing the players that you mentioned dampens your future hopes and dreams with respect to our franchise, so be it. I feel sorry for you and anyone else who feels the same. oh well, I'm very much looking forward to the next 10 years of Red Sox baseball. No looking back for me. I'm a historian of sorts so I do appreciate Red Sox history,but I see the future being very bright. Thank you Theo, thank you Ben, I choose to look in the other direction.

 

You feel "sorry" for anyone who feels losing 3-4 of MLB's top prospects will dampen our future is puzzling to me.

 

I'm not upset about our future. I'm glad we traded some of it for the here and now, especially with Chris Sale.

 

Wishing we still had Espi and Margot, even if they were later used to maybe get us Quintana is not whining.

 

I never said anyone who praises DD is "anti-Ben", but clearly there are many who bashed Ben even though he helped us win a ring and helped built the strong farm that enabled us to get Sale, Thornburg, Kimbrel, Pom and others.

[mvp 78]

Nasty is how some have treated Ben.

 

There wasn't one person on here who was outright nasty to Ben. A700 called him a "boob" and didn't believe he'd ever be a GM again. If that's "nasty" you must have a very weak stomach.

[mvp 78]

BTW, I'm usually accused of being an optimist and "homer", but I try to keep it real.

 

Why is optimist a bad word? It's not to me.

[moonslav59]

That's fine, but don't act like the farm system can't ever be built up again if they want it to be.

 

Don't tell me what to think, especially if it is something nearly impossible to do.

 

Besides, I never said we "can't ever" build up the farm again. It can be built up much easier after some losing seasons and higher draft picks.

 

My point is, it is going to be very hard to rebuild the farm from now until about 2021 to even close to what it has been due to international signing and budget rule changes and projected loser draft picks.

 

It's not impossible, but it nearly is.

 

Can we build the farm to a point where we are able to stay competitive, even without 3-5 top ML prospects? Maybe- maybe not.

 

Will we have a roster after 2021 that includes very low cost studs like Betts, Bogey, JBJ and ERod? I doubt we approach 4 like these, but maybe 1 or 2 will be all we need, if we can start significantly improving our FA signings. We're likely not going to have the prospects like the package we sent to Chicago for Sale again for the foreseeable future.